The Final Countdown - Europe's No. 1

As has happened so many times before, it comes down to this.

Valderrama has seen quite a bit of action over the last 20 years. Forget about the Ryder Cup (if you can) - how many times has the Harry Vardon Trophy still been up for grabs on the last green? Ronan Rafferty did it in '89; Harrington nicked it from Casey by a mere €40k in 2006.

It's here again.

Four men can win it. Karlsson, Harrington, Westwood, and Jimenez. With over €700,000 as a 1st prize, it ensures an exciting finish. However, Miguel Angel effectively needs Big Bob to finish way down the list, and Westwood certainly couldn't afford to have him in the top 7 or 8. for a victory on Sunday to be enough.

Let's face it - Karlsson's played great golf all season - he's going to be in the mix again come Sunday afternoon. It's down to him and Paddy.

The Irish in me would love to see Padraig take it again - he's had good runs at Valderrame and, as a double major champion, he's done so much for European golf this year. But you can't argue with Karlsson's stats. He had 9 top 10s in the season 2 weeks before the Ryder Cup; he then picked up 2 wins and a 3rd. He's played 22 events to Padraig's 13. He's finished in the top 10 in 3 majors, and 20th in the PGA. He's risen to 6th in the world, one place behind Harrington. He has showed his class.

I can't see Karlsson losing his cool over a little matter like the Order of Merit. He'll be in the showdown, and I think Harrington's going to have to win to take his second OM title.

I don't care what sort of form Harrington's in. That no longer matters with him. It's like Tiger. If he needs to play well, he will. At the Ryder Cup, he wasn't playing well, but he still didn't miss a putt on Friday. He's the best clutch putter in the game at the moment, and you can bet your life on him making one if he needs to on the 72nd hole. Poor old Harry Vardon lost his touch on short putts after tuberculosis damaged his wrist, but no one today's going to win his Trophy if they can't make those putts when they count.

 Harrington will be in contention on Sunday afternoon; he's too much of a fighter not to be. Don't let his talk of Karlsson being a deserving winner fool you - he means it alright, and he'll be the first t congratulate Karlsson if he finishes the job - but he's going out there to win. He doesn't know how to do anything else.

Who else?

Westwood wants a win. He's going to get it soon, but will it be this week? As long as he holes his short putts, he won't be too far off and, to be fair, he's improved them all season.

Ryder Cup heroes Ian Poulter and Justin Rose have fond memories of Valderrama, and they're probably hungry for a victory as well. Poulter showed his strength and guts at Valhalla and he'd love to give the world a bit more proof of how good a player he knows he is.

 Graeme McDowell finished 4th here last year, alongside Harrington - he's had a quiet run since the Ryder Cup, but a win here could put him in the top 4 or 5 of the OM, and he's too good to stop playing well for long.

I've been picking Ross Fisher the last few weeks, and he's had a couple of top 5s. He's definitely ready for another win, but he just needs to keep his cool under pressure. At St. Andrew's we saw this failing with the driver on the 73rd hole, and he dropped 3 in a row two weeks ago to fall out of the running. If he can be calm under pressure, he'll be fighting for it on Sunday.

Finally, my last three picks. Kjeldsen, Dyson, and Soren Hansen. Hansen's form hasn't returned to its pre-Ryder Cup levels yet, but he'll want to ensure his place in 3 majors next season with a top-15 spot in the Order of Merit - he's in 15th now, but he won't be sitting back just yet.

Dyson and Kjeldsen both showed good form last week, and they lost out to Rose on a playoff last year; they'll want to go one better. Kjeldsen's problem last Sunday was his putting - nothing dropped for him, but his long game was steady. If he rolls in a couple early on each day it'll do wonders for his confidence.

I'm not going to go on, because I'll only end up naming every player in the field. That's how good this tournament is going to be, and I'm confident we won't know where the Vardon Trophy's going before the back nine on Sunday.

Enjoy.

We Have to Stop Calling Him El Nino

Much like his country in world and European football championships (until this year), he's been an underachiever. He's failed to finish the job on a number of occasions. His game hasn't been complete. From Thursday to Sunday last week, Sergio Garcia looked more like what we know he is - a world class golfer.

Sergio's always been as close to Tiger as anyone as regards natural talent. Over the years, his main failing has been with the putter, and he's won a handful of tournaments when he starts to hole a few. A couple of years ago, Adam Scott gave him a tip on the greens on Wednesday, and Sergio beat him by one on Sunday evening.

He putted solidly this weekend - the whole four days showed his class. He's risen to number 3 in the world, and now, surely, he's ready to take a major.

We've been saying that for quite a while now. Ok, the PGA in 1999 was spectacular, but he couldn't have been expected to finish it off at 19 - the last player to win a major that young was Johnny McDermott in 1910 or -11 - but he's had his chances since then. Paddy's nicked a couple from him, and the more you miss, the greater the pressure gets.

Will he win a major next year? No one can say. But he is now fully ready. His putting this year has been better than any year before - he won the Players, which is as close you get to a major - and don't underestimate the pressure as the home boy at Castellon at the weekend.

His mental game has improved enormously since he was the exciting, and excited, kid who scissor-kicked his way up the fairways at Medinah, and he just needs that final piece of self-belief.

Harrington has obviously been the headliner in the majors this year, but with Karlsson taking 3 top 10s, and Sergio and Westwood coming close again, you've got to believe in a few more European winners over the next dozen majors. Sergio, Westwood, Karlsson, and then the next level coming up - Fisher, Kaymer, and McDowell, to name but a few. The US will be putting up Mahan and Kim, but at a time when there are more Euros than US in the World's top 10, it's got to happen.

The Youth Movement Continues

Last week in this column I made a prediction. It involved Robert Karlsson and Ross Fisher. At about 16.30 on Sunday afternoon, I was feeling quite smug. Fisher was tied for the lead with some youngster called Alvaro Quiros, who'd been enjoying a good week, but was beginning to show a bit of tension. Karlsson meanwhile, was lurking two shots, visibly licking his chops as he crept towards a third successive win.

An hour later, Fisher had dropped three in a row, Karlsson dumped his ball in the water on the 17th, and Quiros was calmly holing out to take a two-shot lead up the last. Which he birdied.

Ok, we had heard of young Quiros before - he won at Leopard Creek last year on his first appearance with a full card (the rest of the year was fraught with injury), and had a decent season on the Challenge Tour the year before, but who would have bet that he would have managed himself so calmly down the stretch with the world's best player (at this time) breathing down his neck. He bombs the driver, but has a wonderful putting touch which saw him hole clutch putts on the 15th, 16th, and 17th. This boy is here to stay, and adds his name to the young guns powering through the fields these days.

He played great all weekend, finishing his third round off solidly on Sunday morning before going out for the final act. He was put under pretty much as much pressure as you get outside a major championship and a pairing with Tiger. He showed both talent and guts, and, along with Pablo Larrazabal, will be flying the Spanish flag for a long time to come.

It was nice to see him cite Seve as an inspiration for the win; in my opinion, there are few players of his his age who wouldn't - Seve did so much to stir up excitement and love for the game, and I'm sure he'll continue to do so for many long years. (Just to keep you updated, Seve had a second operation at the weekend to remove a small piece of his skull which was placing pressure on the brain after the first operation. He is currently stable and in intensive care. Once again, we send him our best.)

Briefly, in America - Mark Turnesa picked up his maiden PGA Tour victory at Justin Timberlake's tournament in Las Vegas, holding off a pack of players including Ryder Cupper Chad Campbell, Zach Johnson, who continued his good form from the week before, and Chris DiMarco. I'm delighted to see DiMarco back in a bit of form - he's had a torrid year and he's too good a player to stay out for long. I'm confident we'll see him back in the winner's circle before long.

So, the Order of Merit race is still open, and will come down to Sunday evening at Valderrama. Who will take it? Well, Miguel Angel is playing this week in Spain, and he realistically needs a strong performance, as I somehow don't think big Robert will be too far from the action at the Volvo. I'd love to see Harrington do it again, but I don't think anyone can argue that it would be a just dessert for Karlsson, putting the finishing touches on a season that has seen him become one of the game's greats. 

As ever, it will be fascinating.

Given the current state of the world, I think it is important to remember our priorities, and, for now, I leave you with a quotation from Robert Lynd:

"It is almost impossible to remember how tragic a place this world is when one is playing golf."

Portugal Masters; Grand Slam

The European Tour stays in Iberia this week, as it heads to the Portugal Masters at the Oceanico Victoria Course.

Once again, there's a stellar line-up on the way, with six of Europe's defeated Ryder Cup men teeing up on Thursday.

Pre-tournament favourite, Robert Karlsson, is looking for a chance to extend his lead at the top of the Order of Merit, and force Padraig Harrington into needing a win at Valderrama. It's difficult to see him being beaten, I must say. He's not the sort of guy that gets tired too easily, he takes his wins in his stride, and he likes the event, having finished 2nd here last year. Don't be surprised to see him take his third title on the trot on Sunday evening.

 

However, Ross Fisher and Martin Kaymer, the men he beat in the playoff at St. Andrew's are both here as well, Fisher after a week off and Kaymer continuing a run of three weeks play. They both had top 10s here last year as well, and will be looking to ensure a high finish in the Order of Merit, as well as a bit of revenge for the near miss at the Dunhill.

Aside from these three guys, I fancy Westwood. I reckon he's finally got a bit of energy back after a week off last week, he had a top 5 finish here last year, and, let's face it, after the year he's had, who's going to say he won't get a win before it finishes? He's still in the Order of Merit race, but a win here is pretty vital to keep his hopes alive, as it is for Miguel Angel as well, as you can bet Karlsson will be up there as well.

McDowell, Wilson, and Soren Hansen are the other Ryder Cuppers appearing here this week, all trying to consolidate their position inside the top 10 in the OM. Wilson's the only player to play in a Ryder Cup without a tournament win, but after the year he's had I can't see that duck lasting much longer. He's another guy who's been a bit tired since the Ryder Cup, but if he's got a bit of energy back I expect him to be in the mix come the back nine on Sunday.

Just a brief look at Bermuda, where the Grand Slam is being played. Harrington and Furyk are both -2 after the 1st of 2 rounds, while Goosen is on level par, and Immelman's shot himself out of it with a +6 76. It's not the biggest tournament on my radar, but I'd like to see Padraig pick it up, and I think he'll do enough to edge out Furyk.

The PGA Tour heads to Vegas this week, and I'm not even going to go into any detail on this. I think Hunter Mahan will win - he's had a good season, a great Ryder Cup, and he'll be licking his chops now regular tournament play is back.

Once again, I just want to send my best to Seve. I understand there was a biopsy yesterday, but I still haven't heard any more news. 

Take care.

Our best to Seve

I just want to briefly take the opportunity to send my heartfelt best wishes to Seve Ballesteros and his family. It must be avery difficult time for them now, and I hope and pray that Seve will be able to fight this illness and make it back to full health. He has been a wonderful ambassador for the game of golf and, by all accounts, a wonderful person. My sister had the privilege of receiving a lesson from him last year and I was unsurprised to hear that he was a true gent.

Take care Seve, we're all thinking of you, and we know that you have the strength to beat this thing and come back.

Race to Dubai

Over the last week or so, there's been a lot of talk about the upcoming Race to Dubai, the multi-million Euro 53-week long series coming to the European Tour. The number of tournaments required for a Tour player to retain his rights has been upped from 11 to 12, events have been cut and added, and some of the best from across the pond have started talking about getting in on the action.

Is it a good idea? At first, I must admit I was against it. It sounded too much like the FedEx Cup for me, which simply hasn't worked so far in the States, and I'm not convinced it will ever, to the extent that it improves the Tour. Golf may be about a lot of money these days, but I don't think it should be about €20 million prize funds, or $10 million bonuses.

 However, it will place more focus on the European Tour, and that is definitely a positive. The European Tour has continued to get stronger and stronger over the past years, and is now nothing less than world class. In my opinion, the standard is just as good if not better than the PGA Tour, and it certainly makes guys into more all-round golfers. They play on different and diverse courses, even within the labels of parkland and links. They face weather conditions and temperatures that Boo Weekley's probably never even heard of, let alone played in. The young guys on Tour - Martin Kaymer, Ross Fisher, Oliver Fisher, Oliver Wilson, Pablo Larrazabal - don't be surprised if these guys start picking up majors over the next few seasons, and as for Kaymer, he's a potential World No. 1. I know a guy who might have something to say about that though...

There'd be greater focus on the Tour if Phil, Kim, Vijay, and others kept their word and made it over for a few events. It would prove the quality of the European players. Don't be surprised to see some of the above Europeans going head to head with these guys and beating them. 

Robert Allenby is another player who's talked about coming over - I'd love to see that - he's a beautiful player to watch; there are few guys who strike their irons as well as him.

I'm delighted that the number of events has been raised from 11 to 12, including at least 2 in Continental Europe. At the moment, you can play 4 majors, 3 WGCs and only leave the US once, and can make up the rest with a few Irish and Scottish tournaments. The French, Italian, Spanish, and many other Opens are fantastic events on fantastic courses and deserve to be recognized as such. Harrington's 2nd on the Order of Merit - he's played 13 events this year and has only left the US, Ireland, and Britain once. I'm not criticizing him - he's got his own schedule and I respect it absolutely - but it does show that it's possible to gain the benefits of Tour membership and still bypass some great events. Karlsson's a consummate European golfer - he's played 21 events this year, has only come outside the top 20 5 times, and has 11 top 10s, including wins in his last 2 events. He's worked around Europe all year, and he's only a few bob ahead.

If the Race to Dubai brings more exposure to the superb players on the European Tour, and allows them to compete against more of the games top players, then I'll be happy to accept it as a positive step in the life of this wonderful game.

Dunhill Championship, Order of Merit Race

Hello again,

It's easy to forget what a joy links golf is when you don't play it for a while. It's even easier to forget how great it is to watch links golf, and what a feast the Dunhill is each year. Four days of golf around Kingsbarns, Carnoustie, and St. Andrew's - what more does a real golf fan want?

 It was, once again, a great tournament this year. Going into the final day there were still a dozen guys with a great chance of winning it. By Sunday morning I had it between Kaymer, Karlsson, and Harrington. Unfortunately Padraig had a rough day at the office, but that's surely a sign of the fatigue he's still battling. Only the truly great players could have put in the fantastic performance he had over the first 3 days, and still give himself a chance at a third title on Sunday. He showed us again why he's a double Open Champion, and you can bet your bottom euro he'll be right up there at Turnberry next July.

 Robert Karlsson. Once again, in what was his 11th top-10 finish of the season, Karlsson played great golf. He's won two events back-to-back with a solid Ryder Cup performance in the middle, and he's risen to 8th in the world rankings. I can't remember the last time there were 4 Europeans in the top 10, and now they're in with 4 Americans, a Colombian, and that fine Fijian fella. 

Karlsson has a pretty good run in the majors this year, and he's got to be a good bet for one next year. His putting has improved tremendously over the last few years, and he is in such great control of both his body and mind. He's not a guy who gets rattled easily - he'd have no trouble whatsoever playing with Tiger or Phil in front of a partisan crowd. He also showed his class on links, which obviously pays off big-time whenever the Open comes around. You can expect to see him challenging in the majors next year, and I won't be surprised if he ends the year with a new jacket, jug, or really big trophy. 

As to the Order of Merit, what's going to happen there? Harrington was top until Sunday, but remember that he got there with over 70% of the winnings being from those 2 majors, not that that's a bad way of doing it. He's only played 13 events in the year whereas Karlsson's played 21. That commitment to the European Tour looks like it's going to pay off. Can you see Big Robert not making a title challenge at Valderrama? It'll take some great golf from Westwood, Padraig, or Miguel Angel to take it off him now. Wonderful! We're set for a hell of a finish to the season. When Padraig picked up his maiden OM title in 2006, he only scraped by Casey to do so, and it can come down to the last few bucks. I think it was Eamonn Darcy, who either just got into or just lost out on a Ryder Cup spot in the 1990s by less than £100.

It'll be exciting again this year, but I think Karlsson will hold on, and with a season like the one he's had he deserves it.