Valderrama has seen quite a bit of action over the last 20 years. Forget about the Ryder Cup (if you can) - how many times has the Harry Vardon Trophy still been up for grabs on the last green? Ronan Rafferty did it in '89; Harrington nicked it from Casey by a mere €40k in 2006.
It's here again.
Four men can win it. Karlsson, Harrington, Westwood, and Jimenez. With over €700,000 as a 1st prize, it ensures an exciting finish. However, Miguel Angel effectively needs Big Bob to finish way down the list, and Westwood certainly couldn't afford to have him in the top 7 or 8. for a victory on Sunday to be enough.
Let's face it - Karlsson's played great golf all season - he's going to be in the mix again come Sunday afternoon. It's down to him and Paddy.
The Irish in me would love to see Padraig take it again - he's had good runs at Valderrame and, as a double major champion, he's done so much for European golf this year. But you can't argue with Karlsson's stats. He had 9 top 10s in the season 2 weeks before the Ryder Cup; he then picked up 2 wins and a 3rd. He's played 22 events to Padraig's 13. He's finished in the top 10 in 3 majors, and 20th in the PGA. He's risen to 6th in the world, one place behind Harrington. He has showed his class.
I can't see Karlsson losing his cool over a little matter like the Order of Merit. He'll be in the showdown, and I think Harrington's going to have to win to take his second OM title.
I don't care what sort of form Harrington's in. That no longer matters with him. It's like Tiger. If he needs to play well, he will. At the Ryder Cup, he wasn't playing well, but he still didn't miss a putt on Friday. He's the best clutch putter in the game at the moment, and you can bet your life on him making one if he needs to on the 72nd hole. Poor old Harry Vardon lost his touch on short putts after tuberculosis damaged his wrist, but no one today's going to win his Trophy if they can't make those putts when they count.
Harrington will be in contention on Sunday afternoon; he's too much of a fighter not to be. Don't let his talk of Karlsson being a deserving winner fool you - he means it alright, and he'll be the first t congratulate Karlsson if he finishes the job - but he's going out there to win. He doesn't know how to do anything else.
Who else?
Westwood wants a win. He's going to get it soon, but will it be this week? As long as he holes his short putts, he won't be too far off and, to be fair, he's improved them all season.
Ryder Cup heroes Ian Poulter and Justin Rose have fond memories of Valderrama, and they're probably hungry for a victory as well. Poulter showed his strength and guts at Valhalla and he'd love to give the world a bit more proof of how good a player he knows he is.
Graeme McDowell finished 4th here last year, alongside Harrington - he's had a quiet run since the Ryder Cup, but a win here could put him in the top 4 or 5 of the OM, and he's too good to stop playing well for long.
I've been picking Ross Fisher the last few weeks, and he's had a couple of top 5s. He's definitely ready for another win, but he just needs to keep his cool under pressure. At St. Andrew's we saw this failing with the driver on the 73rd hole, and he dropped 3 in a row two weeks ago to fall out of the running. If he can be calm under pressure, he'll be fighting for it on Sunday.
Finally, my last three picks. Kjeldsen, Dyson, and Soren Hansen. Hansen's form hasn't returned to its pre-Ryder Cup levels yet, but he'll want to ensure his place in 3 majors next season with a top-15 spot in the Order of Merit - he's in 15th now, but he won't be sitting back just yet.
Dyson and Kjeldsen both showed good form last week, and they lost out to Rose on a playoff last year; they'll want to go one better. Kjeldsen's problem last Sunday was his putting - nothing dropped for him, but his long game was steady. If he rolls in a couple early on each day it'll do wonders for his confidence.
I'm not going to go on, because I'll only end up naming every player in the field. That's how good this tournament is going to be, and I'm confident we won't know where the Vardon Trophy's going before the back nine on Sunday.
Enjoy.
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