He Hasn't Won Either...

For once, they listened to me. Henrik Stenson heard I'd backed him and did the decent thing by winning at the Nedbank by 9 shots.

I know that one of the reasons I gave for my prediction was that he wouldn't want to end 2008 winless - I HATE when people give that reason. Of course he doesn't - neither do I, but I'm going to. The fact that he hasn't won makes it LESS likely. However, it is sometimes true of a top-class player that he can pull it out of the bag when he feels a bit of pressure.

It worked for me, though, and I'm going to stick with that abhorrent justification this week as you'll see below...

The Race to Dubai comes to South Africa for a three-week visit before heading up to the Middle East.

This week, it's the Alfred Dunhill Championship played at Leopard Creek in Mpumalanga.

Heading the field is Lee Westwood, still winless in 2008, and still looking good to get rid of that stat. He's had a great year in every other respect - his putting has improved beyond all recognition since a woeful display at Augusta in April which left me with my head in my hands. However, my money's on him again this week; it's difficult to see him not challenging come the back nine on Sunday. Ewen Murray cites the course as being one to suit good drivers of the ball, and in my opinion, Lee's the best driver of the ball around these days. His ironplay's solid - if he holes the putts this week, he wins.

The field is lacking the last three winners of this event, in John Bickerton, Alvaro Quiros, and Ernie Els, which is always a pity, but the man who won in 2004 is another who's on my list to be in the top 5. Charl Schwartzel - I've been talking about him for about 5 years, and he's only recently shown the form that we know he's capable of. He's got a magnificent game, and he picked up a win in Madeira towards the end of last season - perhaps it's finally time for him to break through, and where better than at home.

Rory Sabbatini and Richard Sterne are also local favourites this week (if Sabbatini is a favourite anywhere - Vijay Singh once commented "How does a guy get so unpopular", which is pretty damning, coming from Vij), with Sabbatini coming off a strong performance at the Nedbank. Sterne is another one of these steady players who slips under the radar week-in week-out, and  then pulls out a good performance.

However, my pick for the week to join Westwood is Rory McIlroy. He's had a decent year, with 2 playoff losses in the past few months. I said last week that he'd have a win by the time the spring comes round, and I stick by that. Why not this week?

McIlroy could well have won by now if he'd putted better. From watching him, he seems to lack a consistent and convincing pre-putt routine - he rushes into some of them, and while his holing out from short range is pretty solid, he doesn't hole his share of 15 to 20 footers. Taken on their own, it's easy to disregard, but if you don't hole any in a round you won't win the tournament.

He also seems to put a hand out after every miss, bemoaning the break he didn't see, or the pace that wasn't there. I don't expect him to be happy with missing putts, but that can only make them linger in the mind. I don't know who his short game coach is, but there are some great putting coaches out there, including Ewen Murray and Mark Roe, and I'm sure that any of them would be delighted to get the chance to work with an exciting young prospect like McIlroy.

Despite this harangue, I'm confident of him this week, and expect him to be in the mix on Sunday evening.

For any of you who haven't already heard, I'm delighted to say that Seve is back out of hospital and appears to be recovering well. He had his fourth brain operation last week, and his doctors are very happy with the progress he's made. As always, our thoughts go to him and his family.

Michelle Wie has got her hands on a full LPGA Tour card for next year - providing her mum and dad don't caddy for her we might see her show some of the talent we know she has.

Congratulations to Padraig Harrington for picking up the European Player of the Year for the second year running. He definitely deserves it - a month ago I said that I though that Karlsson deserved the Order of Merit over him, but I don't think Harrington's spectacular season can go unrecognized. He's opened the door for major winners from Europe, of which I expect at least one this year.