Open Season

The U.S. Open always promises a feast for the spectators. Never easy for the competitors, we can expect long, tough courses with penal rough and slick greens. The Olympic Club in San Francisco is the venue chosen for this edition, when the USGA will want revenge for Rory McIlroy’s deconstruction of Congressional last year. Lee Janzen won the U.S. Open in 1998 on level par here, and I’d imagine a similar score will be enough to triumph on Sunday. Who has the game to take the title this year?

Big Guns
The last month has seen a dramatic fall for Rory McIlroy. From the man who seems to churn out top-10s to beat the band, his last few tournaments have been a stark contrast. I’m sticking to my opinion that he’s not a good putter, but he has always contended and sometimes won by virtue of his incredibly consistent long game. Watching him at Sawgrass and Wentworth, however, it was remarkable to see simply how many bad shots he hit. He’s always had hook issues, and they seem to be returning to the driver right now. He had a decent finish last week at the St. Jude, but he still wasn’t playing well. That he could still be in contention down the last when hitting it so badly is a testament to his talent, but the fact that he hit such an awful drive on the 72nd is worrying. The mental scar that causes is not what you want before heading to defend a major championship. McIlroy doesn’t have a dependable putting stroke that can get him out of trouble consistently, and on these small U.S. Open greens I expect to see him struggle to make the cut once again.

The fact that we remain unconvinced about Tiger Woods despite two wins in his last five starts speaks volumes for the man. True, during the weeks where he didn’t win he played some of the worst golf I’ve ever seen him play. After giving a masterclass in shot-making at Bay Hill, he played horrible shots at Augusta and Sawgrass, before heading to Memorial and reminding everyone that he’s still Tiger Woods. The 5-shot win at Arnie’s tournament was impressive, but it was the guts he showed down the stretch to win Jack’s that are all the more ominous for his fellow players. If there was any doubt that he could still close out a win under pressure, it’s gone now.
The question is whether he can put four solid rounds together on an extremely difficult course. He did it at Memorial, but the Olympic Club should be a tougher test again. Tiger’s got the driver working well at the moment, while it’s the putting that’s still causing a few problems. Four years ago, if he needed to make a putt, whether it was 3 feet, 10 feet, or 20 feet, you could put the house on it. He made a good few at Memorial, and his chip on the 16th at Memorial shows the killer instinct and the magic are still there, but he’s got to pull it out on the biggest stage if he’s to satisfy his detractors.

I’m confident Lee Westwood will do well this week. He’s in good form, coming off a win in the Nordea Masters, and he just hits the ball too well not to enjoy a long, tough course like this. I’m equally confident that he won’t win. You can reel off his top-5s in majors as much as you like – for me, they’re just must evidence of his inability to pull it off. Like McIlroy, he doesn’t have a putting stroke he can depend on when the going gets tough. Time and again, he misses putts inside 10 feet on the back nine, and you just won’t win majors that way. I see him having another “good” tournament, but faltering on Sunday again and finishing about 6th.

Luke Donald is the best player on the world at the moment, but he will not be accepted by many until he fills the obvious gap on his golfing resumé. His major record isn’t particularly good, but it must be remembered that he experienced something of a golfing rebirth two years ago. I mentioned Westwood’s and McIlroy’s lack of a putting stroke that they can rely on down the stretch. Luke Donald knows that he’s going to make everything within 10 feet on the back nine of a big tournament. He hits it straight, and on a course featuring closely-mown run off areas around 7 of the greens, his deft short game skills will be invaluable. People will argue that he doesn’t have the length to attack a course like the Olympic Club, but when you strike your long irons as purely as he does, you’re not going to be too far off.



A word for last week’s champion? When Dustin Johnson plays well, it’s tough to find a better player to watch. He’s already delivered plenty of excitement in major championships, not always in ways he’d care to remember, and he looks like a good fit to have another go this week. Some players struggle the week after they win, but I can’t see DJ going cold – he’s as fit as they come on Tour, and he’ll be anxious to make up for lost time with another triumph. The Olympic Club might not be the perfect fit, but his length will allow him to hit shorter irons than most into the small greens, which is a huge advantage to begin with.

Weekend Tips?

How can you talk about a U.S. Open without looking at Phil Mickelson? With five 2nd place finishes, no win would be sweeter. He’s been quiet since the Masters, but you’ve got to expect him to turn it on this week, particularly when playing with Tiger in the first two rounds, as well as Bubba Watson. Phil’s got a history of letting U.S. Opens escape him at the last moment, but like Westwood, you can be sure he’ll be there or thereabouts.

Matt Kuchar is playing some really good golf at the moment, and his win at the Players came as a big relief to a man who’s had trouble crossing the finish line. He’s got a great all-round game, and he’ll have fond memories of Olympic, where he finished top amateur in 1998.

Jason Dufner is having one of those seasons. I love watching him play; no other player has that placid look as they go around shooting the lights out. He’s got as smooth a swing as you could want, and if the putter behaves this week, he’ll be in contention.

Jim Furyk is a grinder. He won a U.S. Open 9 years ago, and is having a very solid season in 2012. Expect him to be close.

On the European side of things, keep an eye on Sergio Garcia and Peter Hanson. I just don’t know what to make of Sergio’s mental attitude, but the fact remains that he’s in the top 5 ball-strikers in the world. If he sinks any putts this week, he’s going to be really close. Hanson, meanwhile, is just the sort of solid, dependable Swede that will suit a U.S. Open down to the ground. His last-group pairing on Sunday at Augusta will have taught him a few lessons, and he’ll be eager to have another crack at a big one.

Justin Rose is another European who’s been playing great golf this year; like Sergio, if he can just make a few putts when it matters he should feature.


Who to avoid?
Bubba hasn’t been out much since the Masters, and I don’t think he’s in the right place to do back-to-back. He’s already said he’s not happy with the course, and I’d expect to see a blowout from him in at least one round. I’ve already said I think McIlroy might miss the cut, and I think Bubba could be joining him.

Steve Stricker is a real U.S. Open player, but he’s been pretty quiet for a while now, and I don’t see him turning it on this week.

Graeme McDowell and Martin Kaymer are two players who I think are very close to being back to their best, but if you’re not firing on all cylinders, the Olympic Club is not the place to find your game. Both will be back later in the year, but I don’t think they’ll feature this week.


But in reality, who knows? Just sit back and enjoy.