For the first time in nearly 60 years, Royal Portrush is playing host to the Irish Open. Given the success of Northern Irish golfers in the last few years, expectations have never been higher for local heroes to succeed, and with over 100,000 fans expect to turn out, the 2012 Irish Open will be one to remember.
The question is, can one of the local boys do the business?
Rory McIlroy is not playing well. After missing three cuts running, he had a chance to win the St. Jude Classic before hooking a 3-wood into the water on the 72nd hole. Despite his top-10 finish, he still didn’t look in control of his ball, and the fact that he managed to stay in contention is testament to his talent. It was fairly unsurprising, however, that his bad play was found out at the U.S. Open. The Olympic Club was not a venue where you could get away with bad golf – you could barely get away with good golf – and McIlroy crashed out on Friday afternoon.
Having taken a week off following the major he is now back home, not too far from where it all began for the World Number 2. The question is, is that a help?
There’s no doubt that he will receive tremendous support from the home crowd, but the fact remains that his game does not seem ideally suited to links golf. He has produced some moments of magic, particularly at St. Andrew’s, but for a man who grew up in Northern Ireland his links game is distinctly questionable. After a disappointing finish in last year’s Open Championship, he gave a somewhat childish interview in which he didn’t seem at all inclined to try to adapt his game to links golf, stating that it’s only one week of the year. Not the attitude you want from a man tipped to conquer the golfing world.
He has moved to the United States, and plays most of his golf there now, where the clear weather, mid-20s temperatures and cultivated courses suit his undoubtedly superb game. With plenty of rain forecast for the weekend at Portrush, we might well see another cold and uninspiring performance from McIlroy.
I can’t see him missing the cut again – I reckon sheer willpower to keep the fans happy will see him through to the weekend – but he just doesn’t seem to have the control over his long game that will be necessary to contend on this tough golf course.
Prediction: 30th-40th place
I get the feeling that Graeme McDowell is pretty excited. If you ever want a golfer who loves a pressure situation, is prepared to go toe-to-toe with anyone and believes he will win every time he goes out, look no further than the 2010 U.S. Open champion. I really didn’t see him going as close as he did at the U.S. Open, but once again he showed that he can find form when he needs to. With Furyk struggling on the final day I expect McDowell to close it out, but a couple of errors ended up costing him dear. He showed his scrapping qualities throughout, right up to a gutsy birdie on the 17th and a great iron shot on the last to give him a chance of the playoff.
Everyone wants to win their home event, but I don’t think anyone is as up for it as McDowell. He’s been a big supporter of trying to get tournaments back to Portrush, and he’ll want to show everyone that he rules the roost there. We know McDowell is a great iron player and pressure putter; add to that some local knowledge and a willingness to fight all the way to the line, and I think you might just have the 2012 Irish Open champion. Expectations and pressure can overwhelm some players – Graeme McDowell seldom gets more than whelmed. I’m ready to jump back on the G-Mac bandwagon – I think he goes very close this week.
Prediction: Champion
Padraig Harrington gets an awful lot of stick for constantly looking to make changes to his swing – “you’ve won three major championships,” they cry – “Why change anything?” The fact is that that’s just the kind of player he is. He’s a technically-minded man, and is always looking to improve how he hits the ball. Those majors are due in no small part to this attribute, and when he gets back in the winner’s enclosure, it might finally silence the nay-sayers.
Certainly, anyone who’s been watching him for the last 15 months or so must accept that he’s been close to playing very well, and in the last two months alone he looks to be hitting it brilliantly. Oddly enough, the problem holding him back from winning in the last few weeks seems to be his putting from 6-15 feet – usually his strength, his stroke just looks a little bit tentative at the moment. You can’t win if you’re not holing those putts, and the quality of his performances of late just shows how good his long game is. Harrington birdied 7 of 8 holes last Saturday – that is not a very Harringtonesque performance. Where is the grinder of Carnoustie?
I don’t believe you lose as good a putting stroke as that at his age, and I’m confident he’s going to start holing them again and start winning again.
With all the focus on the Northern boys this week, you can bet your life that Harrington would love to remind them who has three majors in the cupboard, not to mention an Irish Open title. However, having played 7 of the last 8 weeks, and with three in a row taking place in California, Connecticut, and Ireland, you’d have to worry that fatigue might be beginning to set in. He’ll get a rousing reception from the crowd, and I hope he can ride that to success, but I can’t quite see him doing the business this week. Closing out a tournament isn’t easy when it’s been nearly 4 years since your last, and I think we might have to be patient and allow Harrington a few Sundays where he goes close before he brings home the bacon again. He’s still got plenty of wins left in the tank and, in my opinion, one more major.
I think tiredness might be an issue this week, but I’ve no doubt that his good form will carry him through to a strong performance once again.
Prediction: 15th - 25th place
Graeme McDowell recently reminded the world that “it’s been nearly ten months since a Northern Irishman won a major championship”. No one doubted McIlroy’s or McDowell’s rise to the top, but there were plenty of joyfully surprised fans who watched Darren Clarke lift the Claret Jug last July. Back in the day, I was convinced that Clarke would taste major success (and fairly sure that Harrington wouldn’t) but I have to admit that I had given up hope by the time the Open rolled around again last year. In absolutely foul conditions, Darren Clarke delivered, quite simply, the finest exhibition of links golf that I have ever seen. He schooled the field in how to play the course and the weather, and put the gloss on his career that it richly deserved.
Since then, Clarke’s form has been pretty poor. He spoke of struggling to set new goals for himself – given his age and achievements he seemed to be lacking the hunger necessary to contend. He’ll be as proud as anyone that the Irish Open has returned to Northern Ireland, however, and you can be sure that he’ll do his utmost to lift his game. Form isn’t his only worry – he’s been struggling with a groin problem which caused him to miss the U.S. Open two weeks ago. The word is that he’s recovering well from it, but you never know exactly how fit you are until you’re tested in tournament conditions.
I can’t see any way that Clarke will be a force in this championship, but I hope that he can find some form, and make the cut, if only to give his many fans a couple more days to watch him play.
Prediction: Missed Cut
But for a 77 on Saturday, Paul McGinley could well have been in the final shake up for the BMW Championship last week in Germany. As it was, a closing 66 left him one shot out of the playoff. He has to be disappointed with the 3rd round performance, but a third top-7 finish in four weeks is proof that McGinley is rediscovering the type of form that saw him lift the Ryder Cup three times with Europe. Without a tournament win since 2005, McGinley’s career has been steadily waning since that last Ryder Cup appearance at the K Club in 2006. Tipped by many to lead Europe in Gleneagles in 2014, the Dubliner seems to want to show the world that he’s not quite ready for the desk job yet. Always a tidy player, he’ll be looking forward to taking on what he describes as one of his favourite courses in the world and improving on his 5th place finish in Baltray in 2004.
I don’t think McGinley has what it takes to win the event, but as a man in form, he’s another prospect for the fans to get behind.
Prediction: 30th - 40th place
Supporting Cast
There are several other Irish hopefuls playing, from the bigger names of Damien McGrane and the in-form Peter Lawrie all the way to Alan Dunbar, the 23-year old Amateur who captured the British Amateur with a courageous final hole victory last week. Lawrie is the most obvious to give it a real crack, but on a links course, you never know which Irishman might just find a purple patch.
Invaders?
Outside of the Irish, here are just a few names to watch. Although Simon Dyson won his Irish Open title in Killarney, he has shown that he enjoys his links, and I would expect Dyson to put up a strong defence of his crown.
Paul Lawrie is playing his way on to his second Ryder Cup team, and if you don’t back a Carnoustie champion on a tough links course, who do you back?
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano still looks wobbly over his shorter putts, but the Spaniard has thrown in a couple of good finishes with some missed cuts. I’d expect him to be in the mix this week.
Francesco Molinari already has a win this year, and will be keen to show his game is ready for the Open Championship. As solid a ball-striker as you can get on the European Tour, look for the Italian to be in the top 10 on Sunday.
Ross Fisher is playing well again. His 2010 win in Killarney shouldn't be given too much weight as it was on a parkland course, but when he's in form, he's a very dangerous player.
Finally, Chris Wood had his chances last week, but he can temper the disappointment with a return to links. With top-5 finishes in the 2008 and 2009 Opens, and a strong showing at Baltray 3 years ago, the tall Englishman has displayed his aptitude for links golf. Back in form this season, he should contend once again.
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Open Season
The U.S. Open always promises a feast for the spectators. Never easy for the competitors, we can expect long, tough courses with penal rough and slick greens. The Olympic Club in San Francisco is the venue chosen for this edition, when the USGA will want revenge for Rory McIlroy’s deconstruction of Congressional last year. Lee Janzen won the U.S. Open in 1998 on level par here, and I’d imagine a similar score will be enough to triumph on Sunday. Who has the game to take the title this year?
Big Guns
The last month has seen a dramatic fall for Rory McIlroy. From the man who seems to churn out top-10s to beat the band, his last few tournaments have been a stark contrast. I’m sticking to my opinion that he’s not a good putter, but he has always contended and sometimes won by virtue of his incredibly consistent long game. Watching him at Sawgrass and Wentworth, however, it was remarkable to see simply how many bad shots he hit. He’s always had hook issues, and they seem to be returning to the driver right now. He had a decent finish last week at the St. Jude, but he still wasn’t playing well. That he could still be in contention down the last when hitting it so badly is a testament to his talent, but the fact that he hit such an awful drive on the 72nd is worrying. The mental scar that causes is not what you want before heading to defend a major championship. McIlroy doesn’t have a dependable putting stroke that can get him out of trouble consistently, and on these small U.S. Open greens I expect to see him struggle to make the cut once again.
The fact that we remain unconvinced about Tiger Woods despite two wins in his last five starts speaks volumes for the man. True, during the weeks where he didn’t win he played some of the worst golf I’ve ever seen him play. After giving a masterclass in shot-making at Bay Hill, he played horrible shots at Augusta and Sawgrass, before heading to Memorial and reminding everyone that he’s still Tiger Woods. The 5-shot win at Arnie’s tournament was impressive, but it was the guts he showed down the stretch to win Jack’s that are all the more ominous for his fellow players. If there was any doubt that he could still close out a win under pressure, it’s gone now.
The question is whether he can put four solid rounds together on an extremely difficult course. He did it at Memorial, but the Olympic Club should be a tougher test again. Tiger’s got the driver working well at the moment, while it’s the putting that’s still causing a few problems. Four years ago, if he needed to make a putt, whether it was 3 feet, 10 feet, or 20 feet, you could put the house on it. He made a good few at Memorial, and his chip on the 16th at Memorial shows the killer instinct and the magic are still there, but he’s got to pull it out on the biggest stage if he’s to satisfy his detractors.
I’m confident Lee Westwood will do well this week. He’s in good form, coming off a win in the Nordea Masters, and he just hits the ball too well not to enjoy a long, tough course like this. I’m equally confident that he won’t win. You can reel off his top-5s in majors as much as you like – for me, they’re just must evidence of his inability to pull it off. Like McIlroy, he doesn’t have a putting stroke he can depend on when the going gets tough. Time and again, he misses putts inside 10 feet on the back nine, and you just won’t win majors that way. I see him having another “good” tournament, but faltering on Sunday again and finishing about 6th.
Luke Donald is the best player on the world at the moment, but he will not be accepted by many until he fills the obvious gap on his golfing resumé. His major record isn’t particularly good, but it must be remembered that he experienced something of a golfing rebirth two years ago. I mentioned Westwood’s and McIlroy’s lack of a putting stroke that they can rely on down the stretch. Luke Donald knows that he’s going to make everything within 10 feet on the back nine of a big tournament. He hits it straight, and on a course featuring closely-mown run off areas around 7 of the greens, his deft short game skills will be invaluable. People will argue that he doesn’t have the length to attack a course like the Olympic Club, but when you strike your long irons as purely as he does, you’re not going to be too far off.
A word for last week’s champion? When Dustin Johnson plays well, it’s tough to find a better player to watch. He’s already delivered plenty of excitement in major championships, not always in ways he’d care to remember, and he looks like a good fit to have another go this week. Some players struggle the week after they win, but I can’t see DJ going cold – he’s as fit as they come on Tour, and he’ll be anxious to make up for lost time with another triumph. The Olympic Club might not be the perfect fit, but his length will allow him to hit shorter irons than most into the small greens, which is a huge advantage to begin with.
Weekend Tips?
How can you talk about a U.S. Open without looking at Phil Mickelson? With five 2nd place finishes, no win would be sweeter. He’s been quiet since the Masters, but you’ve got to expect him to turn it on this week, particularly when playing with Tiger in the first two rounds, as well as Bubba Watson. Phil’s got a history of letting U.S. Opens escape him at the last moment, but like Westwood, you can be sure he’ll be there or thereabouts.
Matt Kuchar is playing some really good golf at the moment, and his win at the Players came as a big relief to a man who’s had trouble crossing the finish line. He’s got a great all-round game, and he’ll have fond memories of Olympic, where he finished top amateur in 1998.
Jason Dufner is having one of those seasons. I love watching him play; no other player has that placid look as they go around shooting the lights out. He’s got as smooth a swing as you could want, and if the putter behaves this week, he’ll be in contention.
Jim Furyk is a grinder. He won a U.S. Open 9 years ago, and is having a very solid season in 2012. Expect him to be close.
On the European side of things, keep an eye on Sergio Garcia and Peter Hanson. I just don’t know what to make of Sergio’s mental attitude, but the fact remains that he’s in the top 5 ball-strikers in the world. If he sinks any putts this week, he’s going to be really close. Hanson, meanwhile, is just the sort of solid, dependable Swede that will suit a U.S. Open down to the ground. His last-group pairing on Sunday at Augusta will have taught him a few lessons, and he’ll be eager to have another crack at a big one.
Justin Rose is another European who’s been playing great golf this year; like Sergio, if he can just make a few putts when it matters he should feature.
Who to avoid?
Bubba hasn’t been out much since the Masters, and I don’t think he’s in the right place to do back-to-back. He’s already said he’s not happy with the course, and I’d expect to see a blowout from him in at least one round. I’ve already said I think McIlroy might miss the cut, and I think Bubba could be joining him.
Steve Stricker is a real U.S. Open player, but he’s been pretty quiet for a while now, and I don’t see him turning it on this week.
Graeme McDowell and Martin Kaymer are two players who I think are very close to being back to their best, but if you’re not firing on all cylinders, the Olympic Club is not the place to find your game. Both will be back later in the year, but I don’t think they’ll feature this week.
But in reality, who knows? Just sit back and enjoy.
Big Guns
The last month has seen a dramatic fall for Rory McIlroy. From the man who seems to churn out top-10s to beat the band, his last few tournaments have been a stark contrast. I’m sticking to my opinion that he’s not a good putter, but he has always contended and sometimes won by virtue of his incredibly consistent long game. Watching him at Sawgrass and Wentworth, however, it was remarkable to see simply how many bad shots he hit. He’s always had hook issues, and they seem to be returning to the driver right now. He had a decent finish last week at the St. Jude, but he still wasn’t playing well. That he could still be in contention down the last when hitting it so badly is a testament to his talent, but the fact that he hit such an awful drive on the 72nd is worrying. The mental scar that causes is not what you want before heading to defend a major championship. McIlroy doesn’t have a dependable putting stroke that can get him out of trouble consistently, and on these small U.S. Open greens I expect to see him struggle to make the cut once again.
The fact that we remain unconvinced about Tiger Woods despite two wins in his last five starts speaks volumes for the man. True, during the weeks where he didn’t win he played some of the worst golf I’ve ever seen him play. After giving a masterclass in shot-making at Bay Hill, he played horrible shots at Augusta and Sawgrass, before heading to Memorial and reminding everyone that he’s still Tiger Woods. The 5-shot win at Arnie’s tournament was impressive, but it was the guts he showed down the stretch to win Jack’s that are all the more ominous for his fellow players. If there was any doubt that he could still close out a win under pressure, it’s gone now.
The question is whether he can put four solid rounds together on an extremely difficult course. He did it at Memorial, but the Olympic Club should be a tougher test again. Tiger’s got the driver working well at the moment, while it’s the putting that’s still causing a few problems. Four years ago, if he needed to make a putt, whether it was 3 feet, 10 feet, or 20 feet, you could put the house on it. He made a good few at Memorial, and his chip on the 16th at Memorial shows the killer instinct and the magic are still there, but he’s got to pull it out on the biggest stage if he’s to satisfy his detractors.
I’m confident Lee Westwood will do well this week. He’s in good form, coming off a win in the Nordea Masters, and he just hits the ball too well not to enjoy a long, tough course like this. I’m equally confident that he won’t win. You can reel off his top-5s in majors as much as you like – for me, they’re just must evidence of his inability to pull it off. Like McIlroy, he doesn’t have a putting stroke he can depend on when the going gets tough. Time and again, he misses putts inside 10 feet on the back nine, and you just won’t win majors that way. I see him having another “good” tournament, but faltering on Sunday again and finishing about 6th.
Luke Donald is the best player on the world at the moment, but he will not be accepted by many until he fills the obvious gap on his golfing resumé. His major record isn’t particularly good, but it must be remembered that he experienced something of a golfing rebirth two years ago. I mentioned Westwood’s and McIlroy’s lack of a putting stroke that they can rely on down the stretch. Luke Donald knows that he’s going to make everything within 10 feet on the back nine of a big tournament. He hits it straight, and on a course featuring closely-mown run off areas around 7 of the greens, his deft short game skills will be invaluable. People will argue that he doesn’t have the length to attack a course like the Olympic Club, but when you strike your long irons as purely as he does, you’re not going to be too far off.
A word for last week’s champion? When Dustin Johnson plays well, it’s tough to find a better player to watch. He’s already delivered plenty of excitement in major championships, not always in ways he’d care to remember, and he looks like a good fit to have another go this week. Some players struggle the week after they win, but I can’t see DJ going cold – he’s as fit as they come on Tour, and he’ll be anxious to make up for lost time with another triumph. The Olympic Club might not be the perfect fit, but his length will allow him to hit shorter irons than most into the small greens, which is a huge advantage to begin with.
Weekend Tips?
How can you talk about a U.S. Open without looking at Phil Mickelson? With five 2nd place finishes, no win would be sweeter. He’s been quiet since the Masters, but you’ve got to expect him to turn it on this week, particularly when playing with Tiger in the first two rounds, as well as Bubba Watson. Phil’s got a history of letting U.S. Opens escape him at the last moment, but like Westwood, you can be sure he’ll be there or thereabouts.
Matt Kuchar is playing some really good golf at the moment, and his win at the Players came as a big relief to a man who’s had trouble crossing the finish line. He’s got a great all-round game, and he’ll have fond memories of Olympic, where he finished top amateur in 1998.
Jason Dufner is having one of those seasons. I love watching him play; no other player has that placid look as they go around shooting the lights out. He’s got as smooth a swing as you could want, and if the putter behaves this week, he’ll be in contention.
Jim Furyk is a grinder. He won a U.S. Open 9 years ago, and is having a very solid season in 2012. Expect him to be close.
On the European side of things, keep an eye on Sergio Garcia and Peter Hanson. I just don’t know what to make of Sergio’s mental attitude, but the fact remains that he’s in the top 5 ball-strikers in the world. If he sinks any putts this week, he’s going to be really close. Hanson, meanwhile, is just the sort of solid, dependable Swede that will suit a U.S. Open down to the ground. His last-group pairing on Sunday at Augusta will have taught him a few lessons, and he’ll be eager to have another crack at a big one.
Justin Rose is another European who’s been playing great golf this year; like Sergio, if he can just make a few putts when it matters he should feature.
Who to avoid?
Bubba hasn’t been out much since the Masters, and I don’t think he’s in the right place to do back-to-back. He’s already said he’s not happy with the course, and I’d expect to see a blowout from him in at least one round. I’ve already said I think McIlroy might miss the cut, and I think Bubba could be joining him.
Steve Stricker is a real U.S. Open player, but he’s been pretty quiet for a while now, and I don’t see him turning it on this week.
Graeme McDowell and Martin Kaymer are two players who I think are very close to being back to their best, but if you’re not firing on all cylinders, the Olympic Club is not the place to find your game. Both will be back later in the year, but I don’t think they’ll feature this week.
But in reality, who knows? Just sit back and enjoy.
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