To Pick Or Not To Pick?

Although never viewed with the same awe as the Ryder Cup, for those who play the President's Cup it is a highlight of the year. It allows international players the chance to experience something of that team golf feel that the Ryder Cup split denies them. One of the great shames in golf is that legends such as Gary Player, Peter Thomson, Bobby Locke, Ernie Els and Vijay Singh never played a Ryder Cup, and for the new generation - Jason Day, Adam Scott, Charl Schwartzel - the same applies. Two greats will face off as captains this year, with Fred Couples and Greg Norman taking the reigns.

The big story of the match so far is Fred Couples' selection of Tiger Woods as one of his two wildcards picks, which he both decided and announced publicly several weeks in advance of the due date. Both the pick and its manner drew much criticism, not only from the media, but also from Couples' own team, with senior man Phil Mickelson protesting on behalf of 2011 U.S. PGA winner Keegan Bradley, who can count himself unlucky to miss out on a seat on the plane to Australia.

Bill Haas took Couples' second pick, and after a playoff FedEx win which involved two incredible par saves before taking it at the 3rd hole, it's tough to say he doesn't deserve it.

What about Tiger? Can Couples justify picking a man in such poor form, who hasn't been playing much golf? The arguments against are obvious. Since that famous car crash in 2009, shortly after the last edition of the President's Cup, he has shown little form at all, his best finishes coming through a couple of hard-fought major top-10s. Respect amongst his peers is not what it was, and he has certainly lost the aura that he had when winning 14 majors. As players like Day, Schwartzel and Graeme McDowell have shown, youngsters today are no longer afraid to take him on down the stretch.

So why do Fred Couples and I think he should be on the team?

He is the greatest player of the generation, and arguably the greatest player of all time. No one has exerted the dominance over quality opposition in the same way as Woods. While that dominance may be at an end, he showed flashes of brilliance over the last year that tells us that he is not yet done. Matchplay is the perfect format for Tiger at the moment - he can afford a couple of errors as long as he can come back strongly, and no one has a mental approach like him.

He took the maximum 5/5 points from his last President's Cup appearance, when he played the four team games with Steve Stricker, and there is no doubt that the U.S. have finally found the perfect partner. Corey Pavin kept the partnership together at Celtic Manor last year, and was rewarded with Tiger returning 3 points from 4.

That Ryder Cup appearance came after the revelations, after his slump in form, after that disastrous performance at Firestone; the lowest point of his playing career. In the team scenario, he was able to pull himself together and build a telling partnership with Stricker, before taking out Miguel Angel Jimenez in the singles. Couples is banking on a similar performance in Melbourne - it is a strange reversal of the days where those said that Tiger couldn't play good team golf, that singles was where he belonged - a good dose of team golf might be just what he needs.

We all know that Tiger is not what he once was. We all know that an era is over. We disagree on his future - I remain convinced that he has another green jacket with his name on it, and maybe some of the other top prizes as well. The imminent drop out of the top-50 in the world should not be seen as too diabolical an omen - he will be back. To what degree, not even he knows. But he will be back, and this vote of confidence from Fred Couples might be just the fillip to get him going again.

One more reason to pick him? Who can wait now for the President's Cup?

Last Chance

So often termed the forgotten major, the U.S. PGA Championship has nonetheless provided a host of unforgettable stories since its inception. In recent years, Padraig Harrington rolled in a 15-footer on the 18^th to dramatically take his 3^rd major out of six, the year after saw Y.E. Yang become the first player to take the lead off Tiger in the final round, and be the first Asian major winner to boot, while last year won’t be a tournament that Dustin Johnson forgets too quickly.

This year looks set to be as interesting a major as we’ve seen in recent times – the World Numbers 1 and 2 are still trying to find that first win, while Tiger Woods continues his comeback after a solid first week back. Steve Williams had an even better first week back, but is regretting not keeping his mouth shut about it. International players are sweeping the major board these days, and the pressure on the younger pretenders in the U.S. is growing ever more – are Rickie Fowler, Nick Watney, Hunter Mahan, Bubba, DJ et al ready to take the plunge?

The PGA returns to Atlanta Athletic Club this year, 10 years after David Toms became one of the more underrated major winners. His victory was chock-full of memories as well – he achieved the longest major ace when he holed a 5-wood from 250 yards on the 15^th hole, and had enough confidence in his short game to lay up at the final hole, hit a wedge to 10 feet, and sink the putt to take the title by a shot from Phil Mickelson.

The golf course has changed somewhat for this edition – 250 yards has been added to the course, making it 7,463 – pretty long for a par 70. The rough has been grown to be as severe as a U.S. Open course. Hitting fairways is at an absolute premium – with three par 4s measuring over 475 yards, you aren’t going to be able to hit all the greens from a wayward drive. The rough around the greens will be punishing as well, so scrambling will be vital. You’re not going to hit every green, so you’d better be able to chip and make some clutch putts. Those greens have been changed from bentgrass to Bermuda since 2001, and will be rolling at 12 or more on the stimpmeter.

So what attributes do you need? Based on the above, it’s first and foremost a ball-striker’s venue. You won’t win if you’re only hitting 50% of fairways. Ideally you want to hit it long as well as straight – having 220 in to some of these greens isn’t going to be easy. As with any major, you need a whole lot of patience and plenty of guts – there’ll be pars you have to make, and bogeys you have to forget. Forget technique for a second – you’ll have to be fit. It’s going to be hot all week, with not much wind. Lee Westwood’s shed 9 pounds in the last month, and that’s going to be valuable. You don’t want to be carrying any excess baggage in conditions where temperatures will go past 90 degrees.

Who will win? I mentioned Lee Westwood in the last paragraph, and even though I think he’s a bit of a choker, this might be the week he does it. He hits the ball as well as anyone, and his putting (his main weakness) looked a lot better at Akron last week. If he can keep himself to 30 putts a round, he should walk this tournament. He seems more relaxed in the press tent since he’s gone to Dr. Bob, and hopefully he’s not letting that “best player never to win a major” tag put him off too much. I never back Westwood in majors, and I very seldom back anyone at a low price, but I’m on Westwood this week at 15/1, so read into that what you will.

Sticking with my betting, I’ve also backed Luke Donald at 14/1, another low-priced favourite. There are plenty of similarities between Donald and David Toms, last winner at this venue – both have exceptional short games to compensate for a shorter long game. Donald comes in to this PGA as the most underrated World Number 1 in history, although he too faces pressure to pick up a major. Unlike Westwood, however, Donald hasn’t really choked at the big moment – he simply hasn’t had enough time to win yet – his game has only hit this new level in the last 18 months, and he will win one in the next couple of years. If he hits the fairways, he stands a great chance – even though he’ll be leaving himself more into the green than other players, his scrambling is second to none.

The only two players who can match Westwood for ball-striking are two more players whose putting is an issue – U.S. Open champion Rory McIlroy and long-time major struggler Sergio Garcia. McIlroy played some really solid golf last week in Akron, and if he putts like he did at the U.S. Open he’ll definitely be in contention on Sunday afternoon. He says he plays better in the States – this is as States as golf is going to get.

Sergio, meanwhile, has played the best golf for several years in the last few months, and the course should suit him if he can keep it in play off the tee. As usual, he’ll need to hole some putts, but the way he hits his irons, like Westwood, 30 a day would probably coast him to the title. At 60/1, get on that.

What about the Americans? While Tiger played well last week, he’s not yet hitting the driver straight enough to contend at a course this penal. I love having him back in the game, and he’s not too far off winning again, but it’s unlikely to come this week.

Dustin Johnson has unfinished business with the PGA, and as he showed at the British Open, he still likes the big stage. A four-iron out of bounds on the back 9 put paid to that, but anyone who hits the ball as far as he does has a great chance this week.

Rickie Fowler is another man for the big occasion – he finally shot a good 4^th round last week, only to be left in Adam Scott’s wake. After a very mature performance at the British Open though, it’s more good signs for Fowler. I wonder if the PGA is too big an occasion to pick up his first Tour win, but you never know – he’s full of confidence and is sure to be a fan favourite.

Steve Stricker is as steady as the come, and a great putter to boot – he hasn’t missed a top-20 in his last 10 starts, and deserves a major on his résumé – he should contend this week. Mickelson finished 2^nd here in 2001, but as usual, there’s no point in predicting what he’ll do. Nick Watney is another young American who will win majors – he blew it last year with a final round 81, but he’s had a couple of big wins since then. Finally – Zach Johnson – loves winning in Georgia, and putts as well as anyone from 10 feet.

Of course the Aussies are back in form – Jason Day is the most exciting player on Tour at the moment, with the least fear of anyone. He’s very close to a major title, and is sure to contend this week. Adam Scott pulled off the biggest win of his career last week, and even though I’m not a fan of those contraptions, the long putter sure is doing the business. If he plays like he did last week he’s almost unbeatable.

With no Ryder Cup this year, the PGA is our last dose of superstar top-quality golf for a while (that’s right FedEx Cup, I don’t really care). With so many players in the frame (I haven’t even mentioned the defending champion), and a few surprises ready to emerge, it should be a fantastic major. Enjoy.

Leading the Way

The world is marvelling at Northern Ireland’s success in majors. How can such a small country produce so many fine golfers? Three out of the last six major championships belong to Northern Ireland, including two U.S. Opens, that most fiercely guarded of American titles. The quality of golf course in Northern Ireland is a factor, as well as the style of game – you don’t grow up playing Royal Portrush without becoming an inventive and intelligent golfer. But let’s forget for a moment the individual players who have triumphed recently, and look at a general trend. There would seem to have been a power shift in modern golf, back across the Atlantic, for the first time in nearly a century. In the early days of the game, the Scottish dominated, up until the late 19th century, when Harry Vardon and J.H. Taylor, to name but two, brought the titles to England. By the time the 1920s had drawn to a close, however, Walter Hagen and Bobby Jones had firmly swung the needle towards America, where it would remain. Major championships were hoarded, Ryder Cups were rarely competitive, and the American dominance grew and grew. It took nearly 50 years for a European to win the U.S. Masters (the great Severiano Ballesteros) and, while that victory did lay the foundation for a fruitful period for European major winners (Nick Faldo, Bernhard Langer, Sandy Lyle, Ian Woosnam and Jose Maria Olazabal) it was difficult to say that the momentum had shifted completely. Perhaps it might have, had there not followed another barren period after these, during which the European could win Ryder Cups to beat the band, belying their lower world rankings, but could still not claim golf’s greatest honours. Then, Padraig Harrington happened. Of all of the players on Tour in the early 2000s, Harrington would not have been many’s first choice to break the major duck. No one could argue with his determination, but a host of 2nd-places was still fresh in the memory, and he had nowhere near the talent of Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia, Paul Casey and Darren Clarke. But grit and determination proved to be key. In 2007 he picked up the Open Championship. Many (particularly across the pond) spoke of this win as something of a fluke, citing the final-hole debacle. Try getting up and down from 80 yards to save a major and call it a fluke. When he successfully defended his title the following year (the first European since James Braid [1905, 1906] to do so), all they could mutter was that he was well-suited to links golf. And so Harrington deprived them of any argument by going to Oakland Hills and stealing the U.S. PGA Championship from their back garden. As he holed that 15-footer on the last to win, Ewen Murray spoke the words “Padraig Harrington joins the legends of the game”. Three major championships in the last six confirmed Harrington as a great. Since then, it is not only the Northern Irish who have triumphed. European Tour members picked up the last four majors, with Martin Kaymer citing Harrington as the man who showed them the way. Four Europeans lead the world rankings, with three of them having shared the top spot in the last year. There is no longer a fear factor in the majors. Europeans now believe they can win in any field in the world. A lot of credit must go to Harrington for this. In the same way that Seve opened the door to Augusta in 1980, Harrington has guided this new generation to the top. Of course they are brilliant golfers, many of them better than Harrington, but it was his doggedness that led to Europe believing in itself again. No more can Europe be damned with the faint praise of “being a great team” (although they still are), but unable to take the individual honours. How long will Europe hold the aces? Hopefully not too long. It’s healthy for the game to have top players from all around the world, and the game today looks like it has just that. Jason Day has shown that he’s willing to take on anyone in the final round of a major, and Charl Schwartzel is ready to take mentor Ernie Els’s place. Y.E. Yang has brought major success to Asia, and he won’t be the last. Americans will still have their say – just try and keep Dustin Johnson and Nick Watney away from the majors for much longer. As for Harrington? He’s not done yet. He heads to Killarney this week to the Irish Open, another tournament that he opened up for home winners again in 2007, but I reckon he might have had enough of other Europeans thanking him for their success. He wants another taste. And he’ll get it.

Major Player

Now let’s all calm down. Journalists, golfers, fans. Rory McIlroy has won one major. Yes, it was incredible. Yes, it was one of the finest exhibitions of golf I’ve ever seen. Yes, the manner in which he won bodes for many more to come. But it’s still only one major.

So let’s not talk of Jack Nicklaus’s record, of dominance a la Tiger Woods, of a Rory Slam…let’s not allow the future that many see for him cloud the magnificence of his achievement. Already fans are building themselves up for disappointment in the Open in July if McIlroy fails to contend. He’s a young man, he still has plenty of work to do on his game. Yes, there are many more tournament and several more majors to come, I don’t doubt it, but don’t get carried away. Let’s enjoy McIlroy’s burgeoning career as it grows, and not be ever-gazing at a distant target, so difficult to achieve.

Jack Nicklaus won 18 majors. He won them over 24 years, almost to the day. That alone is remarkable. No one else had that kind of sustained brilliance over their career. His win in the 1986 Masters, aged 46, closing as he did with a 65, remains one of the greatest performances in golfing history.

All his life, Tiger Woods was chasing that number. And he seriously believed he could do it. 14 majors on, it looks like his challenge may be fading. I believe that he will be back, that he will win at least one more major, maybe two or three. But five? Maybe after 14, five doesn’t seem a difficult prospect. But let’s put it into context. No player currently playing professional golf, aside from Tiger, has won five majors in their career. Mickelson has four, Harrington, Els and Vijay have three. They’re all in the autumn of their careers. Tiger needs more than they’ve won in their career to top Jack. And, realistically, he needs them in the next six or seven years.

What about McIlroy? Harrington, before the final round, lost the plot and said that Rory was the man to beat Jack’s record. Down-to-earth, sensible Padraig Harrington. So how many does he need? 18. 18 major championships. If he plays at the highest level until he’s 40, he needs one a year. Maybe he’ll still be competitive after 40, who knows? One a year for 18 years, dare I say it, just isn’t realistic. Yes, maybe he’ll have years where he wins two. Three? Only Tiger and Ben Hogan have won three professional majors in a year. Four? Get out of here. Not going to happen.

Even if McIlroy does have the talent, and the patience, and the discipline, and the desire to win all these (and he does, don’t get me wrong), just have a look around. Mickelson isn’t done yet. Nor are McDowell and Kaymer. Charl Schwartzel, always one of the brightest talents in the game, has kick-started his career at a new level with his Masters triumph. And then there are guys who haven’t won one yet – Lee Westwood, Luke Donald, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Nick Watney, Hunter Mahan, Matteo Manassero, Francesco Molinari, Bubba Watson, Paul Casey…the list goes on. There are so many exceptional players on tour now, that every major championship will have several serious contenders for the title.

If you take a look at the list of multiple major champions, 15 of the top 18 won the vast bulk of their majors before the early 80s (Tiger, Nick Faldo, and Seve are the exceptions). What does this tell us? Maybe not a lot. Then again, maybe it does. There are more high-quality players on tour now, who have the capability to win majors, than there were when Jack Nicklaus was around. That’s not to downplay his achievement – having Arnie, Player, Watson and Trevino around didn’t make it easy – 18 majors is incredible – but I don’t think it’s realistic these days. Look at when Byron Nelson and Sam Snead were cleaning up on the PGA Tour – seriously cleaning up – in 1945 I think only two or three other players won PGA Tour events. Nowadays, even if you’re missing Woods, Mickelson, Kaymer, McIlroy from a field – you can still have Bubba, DJ, Kuchar and Watney – all potential major champions.

Tiger Woods dominated the sport for about 10 years. He won over 25% of the tournaments he played. The average round of a player paired with Tiger on Sunday was a stroke or two above their usual Sunday average. He was a presence. I’m willing to say that no one will dominate the game in that way again, certainly not in my lifetime. Tiger showed a glimpse of his old self at Augusta this year, when he mounted a final round charge. But his opposition didn’t back off. Schwartzel and Day just looked him in the eye, and charged right alongside him. Players aren’t scared of him anymore.

I don’t think they’ll be scared of McIlroy either. He showed his humanity at the Masters – he is susceptible to pressure. McIlroy will be World Number One one day, but that position looks like it’s going to be a bit more fluid for the next while. He should win a heap of tournaments, and a few more majors. As to more than that, I don’t know. We’ll have to wait and see.

Don’t build McIlroy up as the man to hit the magic number 19. Don’t turn every major victory into a mere statistic, a mere hurdle on the way to that goal. Recognize him for what he is – a very rare talent in our game, who will entertain us for many years to come. Don’t just look at the destination. Let’s enjoy the journey.

Who's Got It?

Yesterday’s stat-attack (see below) threw up a few familiar names in the run-up to the U.S. Open – steady players like Luke Donald, Steve Stricker, and Matt Kuchar all featured strongly, while former major winners Geoff Ogilvy, Zach Johnson, and Retief Goosen had respectable showings as well. Stats aside though, who fits the mould to win at Congressional and who just isn’t ready yet?

What do you need to win? Fairways and greens, really solid putting, good scrambling, and, above all, a seriously cool head.

I’m going to start with my number one pick this week – Steve Stricker. Certainly one of the best players never to have won a major, the veteran American only hit his real form after turning 40, and is showing no signs of slowing down any time soon. He’s registered a few top-10s in the U.S. Open before, but it’s only in the last few years that he’s looked the real deal. A relatively slow start to the season was put to bed with a win at Jack Nicklaus’s Memorial Tournament two weeks ago, a course which it was claimed would not set up well for Stricker.

So does he fit the U.S. Open? He’s one of the steadiest players on Tour – you won’t find anyone with a cooler head than Stricker. Not easily rattled, he understands the value of par golf on tough courses, which many younger and more inexperienced players might not. He hits it straight, and is one of the best putters of his generation. He makes a lot from inside 10 feet, which will be key in any major championship, but particularly the U.S. Open. I can’t really come up with a negative for Stricker – ok, he’s not the longest hitter, but that’s not a big deal for someone who keeps it straight.

Run to your fantasy teams and bookies – Steve Stricker’s the man.

Just a quick note on my outside bet for the week – keep an eye on Jonathan Byrd. He’s played extremely well in the last year, including a win and a playoff loss to Lucas Glover. I think Congressional might just suit him down to the ground.

What more can you say about Luke Donald? He is the best player in the world at the moment, and much of the accolades I gave to Stricker can be repeated here. He hits it straight, has the coolest head in the game (as was evidence by his 3^rd round at Wentworth last month) and is happy being the World Number One. Did I mention the razor-sharp short game? I think he’s the best short-game player currently active. You just don’t see him missing. The only downside is a poor record in U.S. Opens, but don’t put much faith in that – he’s come on so far in only the last 14 months that you can’t look at his career stats as being representative. With 14 top-10s in his last 15 starts worldwide, including a win either side of the Atlantic, I expect him to contend again. 14/1 with the bookies is a little short for anyone in a tournament this tough, so maybe leave the money in your pocket and just enjoy watching him.

If Phil Mickelson wins the U.S. Open this weekend, on Father’s Day, I think America might explode. There is so much goodwill riding with Phil this week that he might be penalized for having 15 clubs in the bag. With 5 runner-up finishes in this major (he also came T$ last year), there’s nothing he wants more in golf. Does all this pressure weigh him down? To be honest, I think he puts just as much on himself anytime he plays a big event, so he should be used to it. Yes, if he’s in contention coming down the stretch his mind might go back to Winged Foot, or Pinehurst, but he’s one of the greatest players in the world.

Always a streaky player, what’s been most frustrating for Mickelson this season must be that when he’s finally got his driver under control, his putting’s gone AWOL again. You can’t miss the putts he’s been missing and win a U.S. Open, and he knows it. He putted well in his final round at Memorial (24 putts), but he needs to carry that into this week. He’s the best wedge player in the world, and he’s going to need that this week.

If Mickelson putts well from 4-10 feet, he’ll win this week.

Lee Westwood – I’m sorry, Lee. I just don’t believe. I wish I did. But I don’t. You cannot putt and chip like Lee Westwood and win majors. If you say, “But look – he’s got 5 top-3 finishes in majors since 2008”? That just shows how good a ball-striker he is. Tee-to-green, Westwood is only challenged by Rory McIlroy, in my opinion. He’s the best driver of a ball currently playing. To be fair, he placed 10^th in putting last week at the FedEx St. Jude. If he can replicate that stat this week, he probably will win. But I fear that my visions of him having the horrors on the USGA’s slick greens might come to pass.

He will win a major title eventually. He’s too good not to. The week will come where the short game stands up to examination and he’ll take home the prize. But this week? Look for him to reel off another top-15, maybe even top-5. But win it? No.

What of the defending champion? U.S. Opens are not traditionally friendly to defending champions, with only Tiger and Goosen cracking the top 50 in the last ten years. This year, Graeme McDowell touches down in Maryland with the trophy in his bag, and you can tell from the look in his eyes and the set of his jaw that he doesn’t want to give it back.

He’s won before – he can clearly handle the U.S. Open set up. He’s a fantastic pressure putter – he holes pretty much everything he has to when the chips are down. His maiden major last year was one of 4 wins worldwide, including taking down Tiger in his own tournament, where he made 15-footers for birdie on the 72^nd and first playoff hole.

2011 has started slowly for G-Mac, however – he looked to have found his form at Sawgrass before a final round collapse marked his exit. He played good golf in Europe two weeks ago, if you disregard a 3^rd round 81. And I do, in a way. He’s a had a couple of tournaments now where he’s played very well but hasn’t put four rounds together – I think this could be the week.

Few players have more bottle, more determination, more fire in the belly than the Northern Irishman. He loved beating Tiger last November, he loved beating America in the Ryder Cup – a challenge is what he lives for.

Technically speaking, his game fits the U.S. Open to a T – Solid driving, beautiful ironplay, and good gutsy putting. I fancy G-Mac to have a serious run at this title – Curtis Strange in 1989 is the only player to defend it since Ben Hogan in 1951, but these records have to be broken eventually. G-Mac would like that stat.

A few other names to look at in brief – KJ Choi doesn’t have a good U.S. Open record, but his win at the Players could kickstart his career on to bigger and better things. He’s as steady and phlegmatic as they come – expect him to do well this week. Retief Goosen and Geoff Ogilvy cropped up in those stats a couple of times – you can’t write off former winners, but both of them seem to be off the boil, although the Goose did have a good tournament last week in Memphis. Lucas Glover is another former champion who’s shown some good form.

Matt Kuchar continues to be one of the steadiest players on Tour – we’ve yet to see if he has the nerve to win a major title, but it wouldn’t surprise me – he’s got all the requirements.

Young guns? I still don’t think McIlroy has the short game to win, but hopefully he’ll play well, notch up another top-10, and then head back to Europe and win a couple of ordinary events.

Nick Watney and Hunter Mahan have both played well this year – I doubt they’ll win this week, but they’re two of America’s brightest hopes at the moment and both have major titles in them.

Speaking of bright hopes – Jason Day’s incredible Sunday run at the Masters showed that he has the talent and the bottle to go far in the game, but very few win a U.S. Open on their first attempt – not this year I’m afraid.

Finally, Bubba and Dustin – two bombers, both with good major performances last year, whose unexpectedly good short games give them a great opportunity even on a course where a premium is on hitting fairways. DJ will want to show he’s over Pebble Beach last year, and Bubba’s already shown he has the bottle to win this year when he held off a charging Phil Mickelson.

Who knows? I can’t wait.

Hugh’s tips:

Steve Stricker

Luke Donald

Phil Mickelson

Matt Kuchar

KJ Choi

Graeme McDowell

Jonathan Byrd

Bubba Watson

Lucas Glover

(Tip the whole field and you'll probably win)

Crunching the Numbers

Historically the toughest test of all golf championships, the U.S. Open is the one week left where the U.S.G.A. can inflict pain on the top professionals in the world. Characterized by tight fairways, high rough, fast greens and consequentially high scoring averages, the U.S. Open can only be won by a golfer who keeps his game and head in check throughout four days of gruelling competition. Last year saw Graeme McDowell become the first European in 40 years to lift the trophy, after he withstood challenges from Gregory Havret, Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods and Ernie Els. Dustin Johnson played three great rounds but to no avail, imploding on the front nine on Sunday to leave licking his wounds and imagining what might have been.

This year the tournament heads to Maryland, to Congressional Golf and Country Club. The U.S. Open was held there in 1997, when Ernie Els (-4) finished a shot ahead of Colin Montgomerie to land his second U.S. Open title. Give the 14-year gap, and the changes made to the course since then, we can’t glean too much information from the final leaderboard – aside from Els, Jim Furyk is the only current payer with a top-10 at Congressional’s last showing.

At a 7,500 yard par 71, Congressional looks to be fitting the mould for U.S. Open courses – the greens will be fast, and the rough at its shortest will be between 3 ¾ and 4 inches deep.

So who can triumph? I’ll be back later in the week with more detailed previews and tips, but right now, let’s look at what some of the key stats will be in a week where the focus has to be on damage limitation. Par is seldom a bad score in this tournament, and the 2011 edition looks like it won’t be any different.

Ball-Striking

You must find fairways and greens at the U.S. Open. The organizers will be sure to keep the greens slick and well surrounded by run-off areas, so making par after a wayward iron shot can be nigh on impossible. As for hitting the green from the rough, you’re going to need a bit of luck. In 2004, most players took on Shinnecock Hills with fairway woods off the tee – Vijay Singh took a different approach – he decided to whack the driver almost everywhere, but trust that he’d be able to muscle 8 and 9-irons from the rough if he missed the fairways. He went into the weekend leading the Greens In Regulation stats. Congressional is longer than Shinnecock, but the Vijay tactic should give hope to some of the bombers, who will hope to use their length to set up shorter approaches.

Take Bubba Watson – despite ranking 92 in driving accuracy on tour, he’s number 2 in distance (surely he’s not happy about that), and he manages to top the GIR stats on the PGA Tour. He’s number 2 behind Boo Weekley on the PGA Tour’s Ball-Striking stats (combination of Driving & GIR), and with a short game like his, he should be a serious contender this week. Also clocking in high up on the ball-striking list are Hunter Mahan (T4), Nick Watney (9^th), Sergio Garcia (T10), Dustin Johnson (14^th), Adam Scott (16^th), and Matt Kuchar in 18^th place. Justin Rose (23^rd) and Graeme McDowell (25^th) close out the top 25.

Two guys a little further down to note are Steve Stricker in 34^th place and Luke Donald who ties for 42^nd.

All of these guys would be on my shortlist to contend this week, so it’s encouraging to see that they’re doing the first part right. The stats only give us so much obviously, and guys a little further down the list can make up the difference with higher rankings around the greens, but these numbers do at least show us that big hitters like Bubba and Dustin can still come up with decent GIR numbers, although the punishment at Congressional might be more severe.

Scrambling

You must be able to save par. Birdies are all well and good, but at a U.S. Open the guy who walks off with the trophy will have made a hell of a lot of good pars. Whether from bunkers, thick greenside rough, run-off areas, or 100 yards back in the fairway after a chip-out from the rough, you must get up and down time and again. With Phil Mickelson’s wedgeplay, you have to wonder how he hasn’t won it yet – remember, though, he does have 5 runners-up finishes.

So who gets it up and down the most on tour?

Unsurprisingly, we have a few of the season’s early winners high up in the rankings – two-time champion Mark Wilson tops the chart, while Memorial champ Steve Stricker comes in in 3^rd. World Number One Luke Donald clocks in at 6^th, while former U.S. Open winner Geoff Ogilvy (7^th), Zach Johnson (8^th), KJ Choi (9^th) and Matt Kuchar (13^th) also have good numbers. Padraig Harrington and Mickelson come in at 16^th and 17^th respectively. Nick Watney (T23) and Retief Goosen (25^th) finish out the top 25.

These guys have 11 major championships between them, and bear in mind that Stricker and Donald don’t own any. Yet.

A lot of these names are high on the list of bogey avoidance (obviously) – Stricker, Kuchar and Donald make up 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd, with Nick Watney placing 11^th and Phil Mickelson T15 with Justin Rose. To his credit, Sergio Garcia places 21^st on this list, despite not being the greatest scrambler of all time.

Putting Inside 10ft

The last stat we’ll look at is percentage of putts made from within 10 feet. In any tournament, the guys who make all their 5, 6, 7-footers will be in contention, but nowhere more so than the U.S. Open. We’ve talked about the importance of making those pars when you need to – plenty of them will be around the 10-foot range – there’ll be some good 10-foot bogeys made too, you can be sure of that.

Geoff Ogilvy and Zach Johnson score well again, placing 2^nd and 4^th respectively. 2009 U.S. PGA Champion comes in at T6, while Brian Gay (T11), Ryan Moore (13^th) and Retief Goosen (14^th) have good showings. Those two guys I keep coming back to – Donald and Stricker? 17^th and 21^st. Harrington places T22 while Nick Watney closes out the top 25.

So there you have it. A few key numbers to consider when picking your tip for the U.S. Open. Obviously, the system is flawed – I’ve been using the PGA Tour stats (because, being American, they’re an awful lot better than those provided by the European Tour) and so players like Martin Kaymer, Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy and Miguel Angel Jimenez won’t appear.

For your guidedog, here are a few scrambling numbers from the European stats – Reitef Goosen takes 2^nd place, Sergio surprisingly makes it in at 6^th (although with fewer rounds), while Matteo Manassero and Martin Kaymer are in 8^th and 9^th place. Jimenez and Westwood are respectable as well, placing 13^th and 18^th.

McIlroy, Kaymer, McDowell, Poulter and Manassero all place in the top-20 in GIR.

What does it all mean? Who knows? But it’s no surprise that the names that seem to come up in all aspects are those of Luke Donald, Mr. Consistent Steve Stricker, and star of the future Nick Watney, as well as guys who’ve won the championship before.

Make of it what you will.

On Top Of The World

Since 1987, only a select few have topped the Official World Golf Rankings. Of the 15 who have held that spot, their time ranges from Tom Lehman (1 week) to Tiger Woods (1 week short of 12 years). Two men in particular have dominated the rankings, Greg Norman and Woods, while 7 players’ combined reign only adds up to one of the 24 years for which the ranking has existed.

Few understand how the ranking works, and fewer agree with it. A player can seem to engineer his stability in the upper echelons by tapering his playing schedule, should he wish to. The fact is, few wish to do that. Everyone wants to be World Number One, but most golfers realise that you achieve that by playing good golf.

On Sunday, at Wentworth, Luke Donald achieved just that goal, becoming the 15^thpayer to top the modern-day rankings, capping what has been a truly remarkable run of form.

No one can deny that Luke Donald is the form player in the world. He has finished in the top-10 in 15 of his last 17 tournaments, winning two. Not just any two. He conquered the world in March, taking down then Number One Martin Kaymer to win the Accenture World Matchplay, and on Sunday won the BMW PGA Championship, the European flagship event. To give some idea of the magnitude of this win, many Europeans rank this tournament higher than the Players Championship at Sawgrass, the self-styled “fifth major”.

Donald was always a consistent player – steady with his long game, and owning a deft touch around the greens. Having featured in the Ryder Cup in 2004 and 2006, his career then entered a doldrumic state for a couple of years, coinciding with an attempt to add to his length of the tee. Last year, we saw a resurgence as he returned to his natural game, and put many critics to bed when closing out a win in Madrid, just after finishing a shot shy in Wentworth. That win saw him embark on this most remarkable run of form.

Luke Donald has transformed from a consistently good player to a consistently great player. His proficiency around the greens and his measured temperament, alongside an accurate long game, make him a very difficult man to beat in any course, on any format. His win at Wentworth was a performance of a true great of the game – after shooting an incredible 64 on Thursday, the course bit back as the week went on, and on Saturday he ran up an ugly 5-over 40 on the front nine. Few players can manage themselves in this situation, when their game deserts them. For that is what happened – Luke Donald was missing fairways by aeons, and playing out of trees and shrubs. He kept his cool, made some putts, and came home in 32, to regain a share of the lead heading into Sunday. That was the nine holes where the tournament was won.

Throughout Sunday, and into the playoff, we were treated to an ideal ending. Donald went toe-to-toe with Westwood, knowing that whoever came out on top would finish the week as World Number One. I am a confirmed critic of Lee Westwood – I like him and think that he is an excellent player, but his route to the top spot was hardly the most magnificent. A flukey win in the U.S. last summer and a very consistent season saw him grasp the prize from a plummeting Tiger Woods. To be fair to Westwood, he faced added pressure since then, being questioned about his failure to win majors, and whether he should own the top spot. He stood up and performed earlier this year, capturing the Ballantines Championship. On Sunday, he had a chance to stamp his mark on the World Rankings again. He didn’t take it.

Whoever won that playoff would be a deserved World Number One, because of the pressure involved. They knew what was at stake, and Luke Donald made a birdie four to take the prize. Lee Westwood couldn’t close it out in 72 holes.

Does Donald still have more to achieve? Plenty. He’s never won a major championship, and there are many who feel that the best golfer in the world should have captured one of the four greatest prizes in golf. He will. His rocketing rise only began late last year, and we have already seen him turn in a top-6 finish at the Masters. He’s got the full package – a steady long game (if not all that long), a razor sharp touch around the greens, and the coolest head on tour. At 33, he’s hitting his straps now, and he’ll be around for a long time.

The Number One spot was dominated by Tiger Woods for most of the 2000s. It seems likely that it will be a much more fluid position now that his reign has ended – in the last six months it has been held by four players. A prize that was for so long unattainable is suddenly only a few wins away, and there’ll be plenty of players who have an eye on it. For now though, let us salute Luke Donald who, right now, is the best golfer in the world.

Blue Monster

Another week, and another World Golf Championship. This week the setting is the Blue Monster at Doral, for the Cadillac Championship.

Just as any preview in the last 10 years began with a look at Tiger Woods, so too does any current preview start with Martin Kaymer. The German is the best player in the world at the moment, and is justifiably the favourite for every event he plays. He lost to Luke Donald in the final of the WGC Matchplay, and was undoubtedly beaten by the better man – Donald was almost unplayable that whole week. Even in losing though, it was impossible to watch Kaymer without marvelling at the steadiness and confidence of every facet of his game – he has a classy swing, a beautiful putting stroke, and a wonderful temperament. There’s never going be the dominance of the Tiger era at World No.1 again, but Kaymer will be in and around it for a long time to come.

This week, how are his chances? Excellent. He’s the best player in the world. He also finished T-3 here last year; even when you’re the best, a liking for the course does wonders. It was his first real statement to the Americans that he was the real deal, and after his PGA success last August, he’ll be eager to add to his global tally.

Doral’s greens rank among the easiest on tour, and players are rewarded for aggressive iron play and putting. Who springs to mind? Who else but U.S. Open champion Graeme McDowell. Admittedly I tipped him last week as well, but he came good in the final round – a course record 64 giving him the perfect boost coming into this week, and a tournament where he finished T-6 last year. He’s a fantastic iron player and he makes his clutch putts. He loves the big events, and he loves winning them – only Martin Kaymer has won more tournaments (5-4) in the last 12 months. Even without the U.S. Open win, he won at Celtic Manor, Valderrama, and took out Tiger in his own backyard. G-Mac has a bundle more tournaments coming his way, some of them majors, and a couple of WGCs wouldn’t do him any harm at all.

Tiger Woods update – he says he’s making great progress with Sean Foley, and is feeling better about his game. I’m confident he will return to winning ways soon enough, but it’s unlikely to be this week. It’s always great to see him on the course though, and I look forward to watching him back in action.

Last year Doral hosted the South African show – a battle between legend Ernie Els and his protégé Charl Schwartzel. Ernie hasn’t been in great nick so far this year, but he’s won this championship twice, and despite losing in the 2^nd round in the Matchplay looked to be putting well, which is all I ever really look for – with a swing like that, you’re not going to go too far wrong.

Schwartzel is playing some great golf at the moment – he’s got a string of top-10s across the world and shot three rounds under par in the Honda last week (a feat matched by only 3 others). He’s a horses for courses man, and will have fond memories of last year. You can bet your life that Ernie will want to beat him again, but if the Big Easy’s out of the running he’ll be giving Schwartzel any help he needs.

My last player to focus on is my favourite for the last 12 months or so. Matt Kuchar has played as well as any American over the last year, winning the 2010 money list despite only picking up one victory. His consistency is incredible, helped by a great putting stroke and easy-going personality. He’s going to contend everywhere – he let a good position slip in round 3 last week at the Honda, but I’d expect him to be in the mix come Sunday afternoon this week – he finished top-10 last year and has come on leaps and bounds since then.

Who am I leaving out – Westwood, McIlroy, Stricker, Furyk, Poulter – I’ll be honest and say I don’t see them winning or, aside from Westwood, even challenging. Luke Donald is certainly a good prospect – when he gets into a run of form he rides it well. Phil Mickelson is Mr. Unpredictable this year, following his 2^nd place to Bubba with some underwhelming performances in the last few weeks. As ever, you never know what he’s going to pull out of the bag.

As you'd expect when the world's top 50 players are in action, a great week of golf is in prospect. With the Europeans growing ever stronger, don't be surprised if they make it one more at Doral.