Major Player

Now let’s all calm down. Journalists, golfers, fans. Rory McIlroy has won one major. Yes, it was incredible. Yes, it was one of the finest exhibitions of golf I’ve ever seen. Yes, the manner in which he won bodes for many more to come. But it’s still only one major.

So let’s not talk of Jack Nicklaus’s record, of dominance a la Tiger Woods, of a Rory Slam…let’s not allow the future that many see for him cloud the magnificence of his achievement. Already fans are building themselves up for disappointment in the Open in July if McIlroy fails to contend. He’s a young man, he still has plenty of work to do on his game. Yes, there are many more tournament and several more majors to come, I don’t doubt it, but don’t get carried away. Let’s enjoy McIlroy’s burgeoning career as it grows, and not be ever-gazing at a distant target, so difficult to achieve.

Jack Nicklaus won 18 majors. He won them over 24 years, almost to the day. That alone is remarkable. No one else had that kind of sustained brilliance over their career. His win in the 1986 Masters, aged 46, closing as he did with a 65, remains one of the greatest performances in golfing history.

All his life, Tiger Woods was chasing that number. And he seriously believed he could do it. 14 majors on, it looks like his challenge may be fading. I believe that he will be back, that he will win at least one more major, maybe two or three. But five? Maybe after 14, five doesn’t seem a difficult prospect. But let’s put it into context. No player currently playing professional golf, aside from Tiger, has won five majors in their career. Mickelson has four, Harrington, Els and Vijay have three. They’re all in the autumn of their careers. Tiger needs more than they’ve won in their career to top Jack. And, realistically, he needs them in the next six or seven years.

What about McIlroy? Harrington, before the final round, lost the plot and said that Rory was the man to beat Jack’s record. Down-to-earth, sensible Padraig Harrington. So how many does he need? 18. 18 major championships. If he plays at the highest level until he’s 40, he needs one a year. Maybe he’ll still be competitive after 40, who knows? One a year for 18 years, dare I say it, just isn’t realistic. Yes, maybe he’ll have years where he wins two. Three? Only Tiger and Ben Hogan have won three professional majors in a year. Four? Get out of here. Not going to happen.

Even if McIlroy does have the talent, and the patience, and the discipline, and the desire to win all these (and he does, don’t get me wrong), just have a look around. Mickelson isn’t done yet. Nor are McDowell and Kaymer. Charl Schwartzel, always one of the brightest talents in the game, has kick-started his career at a new level with his Masters triumph. And then there are guys who haven’t won one yet – Lee Westwood, Luke Donald, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Nick Watney, Hunter Mahan, Matteo Manassero, Francesco Molinari, Bubba Watson, Paul Casey…the list goes on. There are so many exceptional players on tour now, that every major championship will have several serious contenders for the title.

If you take a look at the list of multiple major champions, 15 of the top 18 won the vast bulk of their majors before the early 80s (Tiger, Nick Faldo, and Seve are the exceptions). What does this tell us? Maybe not a lot. Then again, maybe it does. There are more high-quality players on tour now, who have the capability to win majors, than there were when Jack Nicklaus was around. That’s not to downplay his achievement – having Arnie, Player, Watson and Trevino around didn’t make it easy – 18 majors is incredible – but I don’t think it’s realistic these days. Look at when Byron Nelson and Sam Snead were cleaning up on the PGA Tour – seriously cleaning up – in 1945 I think only two or three other players won PGA Tour events. Nowadays, even if you’re missing Woods, Mickelson, Kaymer, McIlroy from a field – you can still have Bubba, DJ, Kuchar and Watney – all potential major champions.

Tiger Woods dominated the sport for about 10 years. He won over 25% of the tournaments he played. The average round of a player paired with Tiger on Sunday was a stroke or two above their usual Sunday average. He was a presence. I’m willing to say that no one will dominate the game in that way again, certainly not in my lifetime. Tiger showed a glimpse of his old self at Augusta this year, when he mounted a final round charge. But his opposition didn’t back off. Schwartzel and Day just looked him in the eye, and charged right alongside him. Players aren’t scared of him anymore.

I don’t think they’ll be scared of McIlroy either. He showed his humanity at the Masters – he is susceptible to pressure. McIlroy will be World Number One one day, but that position looks like it’s going to be a bit more fluid for the next while. He should win a heap of tournaments, and a few more majors. As to more than that, I don’t know. We’ll have to wait and see.

Don’t build McIlroy up as the man to hit the magic number 19. Don’t turn every major victory into a mere statistic, a mere hurdle on the way to that goal. Recognize him for what he is – a very rare talent in our game, who will entertain us for many years to come. Don’t just look at the destination. Let’s enjoy the journey.

Blue Monster

Another week, and another World Golf Championship. This week the setting is the Blue Monster at Doral, for the Cadillac Championship.

Just as any preview in the last 10 years began with a look at Tiger Woods, so too does any current preview start with Martin Kaymer. The German is the best player in the world at the moment, and is justifiably the favourite for every event he plays. He lost to Luke Donald in the final of the WGC Matchplay, and was undoubtedly beaten by the better man – Donald was almost unplayable that whole week. Even in losing though, it was impossible to watch Kaymer without marvelling at the steadiness and confidence of every facet of his game – he has a classy swing, a beautiful putting stroke, and a wonderful temperament. There’s never going be the dominance of the Tiger era at World No.1 again, but Kaymer will be in and around it for a long time to come.

This week, how are his chances? Excellent. He’s the best player in the world. He also finished T-3 here last year; even when you’re the best, a liking for the course does wonders. It was his first real statement to the Americans that he was the real deal, and after his PGA success last August, he’ll be eager to add to his global tally.

Doral’s greens rank among the easiest on tour, and players are rewarded for aggressive iron play and putting. Who springs to mind? Who else but U.S. Open champion Graeme McDowell. Admittedly I tipped him last week as well, but he came good in the final round – a course record 64 giving him the perfect boost coming into this week, and a tournament where he finished T-6 last year. He’s a fantastic iron player and he makes his clutch putts. He loves the big events, and he loves winning them – only Martin Kaymer has won more tournaments (5-4) in the last 12 months. Even without the U.S. Open win, he won at Celtic Manor, Valderrama, and took out Tiger in his own backyard. G-Mac has a bundle more tournaments coming his way, some of them majors, and a couple of WGCs wouldn’t do him any harm at all.

Tiger Woods update – he says he’s making great progress with Sean Foley, and is feeling better about his game. I’m confident he will return to winning ways soon enough, but it’s unlikely to be this week. It’s always great to see him on the course though, and I look forward to watching him back in action.

Last year Doral hosted the South African show – a battle between legend Ernie Els and his protégé Charl Schwartzel. Ernie hasn’t been in great nick so far this year, but he’s won this championship twice, and despite losing in the 2^nd round in the Matchplay looked to be putting well, which is all I ever really look for – with a swing like that, you’re not going to go too far wrong.

Schwartzel is playing some great golf at the moment – he’s got a string of top-10s across the world and shot three rounds under par in the Honda last week (a feat matched by only 3 others). He’s a horses for courses man, and will have fond memories of last year. You can bet your life that Ernie will want to beat him again, but if the Big Easy’s out of the running he’ll be giving Schwartzel any help he needs.

My last player to focus on is my favourite for the last 12 months or so. Matt Kuchar has played as well as any American over the last year, winning the 2010 money list despite only picking up one victory. His consistency is incredible, helped by a great putting stroke and easy-going personality. He’s going to contend everywhere – he let a good position slip in round 3 last week at the Honda, but I’d expect him to be in the mix come Sunday afternoon this week – he finished top-10 last year and has come on leaps and bounds since then.

Who am I leaving out – Westwood, McIlroy, Stricker, Furyk, Poulter – I’ll be honest and say I don’t see them winning or, aside from Westwood, even challenging. Luke Donald is certainly a good prospect – when he gets into a run of form he rides it well. Phil Mickelson is Mr. Unpredictable this year, following his 2^nd place to Bubba with some underwhelming performances in the last few weeks. As ever, you never know what he’s going to pull out of the bag.

As you'd expect when the world's top 50 players are in action, a great week of golf is in prospect. With the Europeans growing ever stronger, don't be surprised if they make it one more at Doral.

Partners in Crime

With everyone watching Tiger, it's easy to forget that there are two guys who have to play their own game right beside him for 5 hours.

We were all waiting to see who'd be given the task, embraced by some, feared by others. It's fallen to two of the PGA Tour's in form players, KJ Choi and Matt Kuchar, in the penultimate group of the day.

In the early 2000s, playing with Tiger cost players an average of a stroke or two on their round, whether from the noise of the crowds, the man himself, or whatever. Guys are acclimatizing a little better these days, but there's no doubt that the atmosphere will be electric tomorrow.

Choi has declared himself delighted, and he's the sort of player who might well feed off the pomp. Kuchar played with Woods in Augusta back in 1998 - both men have changed since then, but Kuchar's been one of the solidest players this year - don't expect him to crumble.

Straight out of the blocks will be Louis Oosthuizen, one of my long shot picks for the week. With 6 top-15s in a row in Europe, including a 2nd and win in his last two starts, the young South African's red-hot and will be anxious to join Els, Goosen, and Schwartzel in the charge.

Padraig Harrington and Schwartzel join up with Stewart Cink in the 4th-last group, which is one of the grandstand pairings of the day. Ian Poulter and Steve Stricker follow them, before Tiger hits the 1st tee.

At 10.13 local time, the strongly-fancied Ernie Els will play with last week's winner Anthony Kim and teenage sensation Ryo Ishikawa, in what should be another entertaining trio.

There's going to be some great golf to watch as always, and from the look of the weather forecast it's never going to play too big a part.

The par-3 competition is about to get underway today - no player has done the double yet, and indeed I've seen players walk off the final hole if they think they're going to win the par-3 and curse themselves. Golf is a game for superstitious people, but maybe, on the 50th anniversary of the first par 3 tournament, a little history can be made.

Masters Tale of the Day

1968 - final round - 17th hole. Argentina's Roberto De Vicenzo, reigning British Open Champion, made a birdie 3. After signing his scorecard however, he discovered that his playing partner Tommy Aaron had written down a 4. The higher score had to stand, leaving him one shot behind Bob Goalby, and missing out on the 18-hole playoff the following day.

Most golfers know a good deal of misery, and you have to applaud de Vicenzo for his acceptance of his loss. His charming "What a stupid I am!" has gone down in the legends of the game.

For anyone who wants a happy ending, in 1970 he was awarded the Bob Jones Award for outstanding sportsmanship in golf.

Masterclass

It's that time of year again.

It's not too much to say that when Masters week gets close, I'm like a child looking forward to Christmas. It's my favourite 4-day stretch of the year, and it never disappoints.

Whether it's players getting trapped in the azaleas and rhododendrons, the par-3 contest everyone tries desperately to lose, Sunday at the 16th, or the incredibly stilted presentation ceremony, the Masters makes golfers happy. And it's on BBC - so no ads!

This year we all know where the focus is, but all that means is that a few of our tips can slip in under the radar. The main man gave his first press conference yesterday, and the golfing world was glad to see him back.

Ok, I'm not going to say he's not going to win, because you can't say that. Let's be honest, you will never see Tiger priced at 5/1 for any tournament again, so I still say it's not a bad bet. Realistically though, no matter how good your practice is, there's no substitute for match practice, and that's where the difficulty is. On the other hand, he's not going to play unless he believes he can win. The most important thing to remember is that he's the greatest golfer in the history of the world.

Augusta is a course for horses - out of 73 Masters 15 guys have won 42 (roughly), so you can never expect the rookies to triumph (no one since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979). Looking at the rookies this year though, there's plenty of great form coming in. Bill Haas already has a win this year, and in Francesco Molinari and Charl Schwartzel are two of my outside bets. The younger Molinari's about 150/1 with the bookies, and 17/1 to register a top-10. Schwartzel posted another top-5 last week in Houston, and has really got his putter hot this year, which is what Augusta demands. At 50/1, Ernie Els's protege is great value for a punt.

Little Tim Clark has a track record here, and at 100/1 he's grossly overpriced. At 70/1 you can pick up Vijay Singh and Robert Allenby.

My favourite overall is about 22/1, and it's Retief Goosen. He's had a host of top-5s here in the past, and he's in superbly consistent form this year.

But enough about the betting tips. Masters week is there to enjoy, not to make money. Maybe I'm still bitter about Kenny Perry blowing a lead with 3 to play and costing me an 80/1 bet last year, who knows?

Keep an eye here as the week goes by; I'll be back with more musings each day.

Masters Tale of the Day

1935 - final round - 15th hole. Gene Sarazen turns to his caddy, a tall, black man known only as "Stovepipe", and asks him what he needs to win. "4 threes, Mr. Gene". In other words: eagle, par, birdie, birdie.

Sarazen takes a 4-wood, hoods the face, and hits it 235 yards. Into the hole. For an albatross 2. 3 pars later he was into a playoff with Craig Wood, which he would win.

To this day, ask any true golf fan about "the shot heard around the world".

Falling Stars

Another day, another host of birdies, eagles, upsets, and all-round great matchplay golf.

Top seed Steve Stricker went out yesterday, and the favourites continued to fall today. Indeed, of the 16 players left in the field, only Paul Casey and Ian Poulter remain from the top 12 seeds at the beginning of the week. Casey continued his blistering progress with a second consecutive 5&4 win, while Poulter produced another gritty performance to defeat Adam Scott on the 17th. With Stricker, Harrington, and Robert Karlsson gone, the Bobby Jones bracket looks well set up for Poulter, and you can bet your bottom dollar he won't settle for a semi-final spot.

Defending champion Geoff Ogilvy had a unusually comfortable victory yesterday, and it clearly doesn't suit him. The Australian was outclassed by fiery Camilo Villegas, and his stellar record at this event takes a big hit. Villegas looks in the mood to rattles some cages, and will fancy his chance tomorrow against Ben Crane, who dealt with an out of sorts Y.E. Yang in round 2.

Luke Donald continues to be my fancied pick for the week - he played another glorious round to defeat Robert Allenby 6&5, and faces fellow Englishman Oliver Wilson in the third round. Wilson lost a 2-hole lead against Rory McIlroy, but held his nerve to close out the match on the 20th hole, sending home another of the pre-tournament and crowd favourites.

Lee Westwood has never had a great record in this tournament, and Nick Watney kept the US hopes alive by beating Westwood 2&1. Watney played solid golf, making 5 birdies, and Westwood never really got into the game on the back nine.

Sergio Garcia produced a great fightback to beat Anders Hansen by 2&1, but the Spaniard still looks far from convincing. Tim Clark will face him after a 3&2 win over Martin Kaymer, and I think Clark's clever game will be too much for Sergio.

Another fantastic match should be Charl chwartzel against Stewart Cink - the Open Champion came up wit another fast finish to recover from 2 down and beat Sean O'Hair, while Schwartzel played some beautiful golf to beat Jim Furyk. The young South African lost a lead on the back, but kept his composure and won 3&2. Don't be surprised if the winner of that match makes it to at least the semi-final.

It would be wrong not to mention Thongchai Jaidee, who, after beating Padraig Harrington yesterday, crushed a lack-lustre Robert Karlsson in round 2. He faces Ryo Ishikawa in the third, after the Japanese teen survived another close finish against Ross McGowan. It may not be the 3rd round we expected, but that's what matchplay's about.

The final match to finish was a clash of the titans - Ernie Els and Retief Goosen, each trying to resurrect his game and relive the glory days. It wasn't a display of great golf, but enthralling nonetheless. Nip and tuck till the finish, Els looked to have let it slip before he holed a beautiful birdie putt to take it to extra holes. Ernie had to do the same on the 19th, before Goosen played the shot of the match to set up a winning eagle on the 20th. He's not going to beat Nick Watney with golf like that though, and I'm sure he'll give himself a talking to tonight.

It's getting tough to pick winners now - we've seen enough upsets to be cautious of making any predictions, but I still can't resist. Here's my call for the 3rd round - whether I'm right or wrong, it's sure to be another great day of golf.

Jaidee to beat Ishikawa

Poulter to beat Singh

Clark to beat Sergio

Donald to beat Wilson

Watney to beat Goosen

Villegas to beat Crane

Cink to beat Schwartzel - match of the round, could go all the way

Casey to beat Gay

A Flying Start

We were promised exciting matchplay golf. We got it.

The first day of the Accenture World Matchplay did not disappoint. There were close finishes, upsets, top seeds pushed to the limit, and some simply incredible golf.

Best to start with the casualties - Padraig Harrington is heading home with a last-64 cheque for $45,000 after losing 3&1 to Jeev Milkha Singh - the golf wasn't spectacular but it was a great match - Harrington was spraying the ball around and relying on his major-winning short game to stay in it. In the end, the workman-like swing of Singh was too much for the Irishman, and the Indian No. 1 will face Matt Kuchar in the next round.

Kuchar, as predicted here last night, was another giantkiller, taking down Anthony Kim. Again, Kim was off-form, but Kuchar played a solid game to win 3&2.

Defending champion Geoff Ogilvy had an easy start to his campaign, defeating Alex Noren 7&5. Ogilvy didn't play his best golf, but he'll be happy to get the ball rolling again on a course he loves.

Mike Weir produced the performance of the day - 9 birdies in the 12 holes he played blew away Alvaro Quiros by 8&6 - Paul Casey looked gobsmacked when he heard about his 2nd round opponent in interview, but after Casey's 5&4 win over Stephen Ames, that could be one of the highlights of tomorrow.

Luke Donald played some great matchplay golf to hold off Graeme McDowell 2&1 and set up a showdown wit Robert Allenby tomorrow - Donald looks back in good touch this year, and I fancy him to go far this week. Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer are both in his bracket, and both produced fantastic back nines to win their matches. McIlroy was 4 down through 6 holes, 2 down through 14, and won on the 18th. I don't care what the commentators say - that's the sort of match you want in the first round. An early finish might be a little easier, but if you don't get pushed in the early rounds you won't be ready when the going gets tough. Just look at Ogilvy last year - he hardly finished a match before the 18th all week. Forget what they say about the players needing a rest - they are all fit guys, and golf's their job. The guys who went to 18, 19, 20 holes today are my favourites to win tomorrow.

Two such were the Molinari brothers, who both lost out only just - Edoardo was 4 up on Stewart Cink with 9 to play, but the Open Champion holed everything on the back to sneak a win.

Another late finisher was Ian Poulter, who beat Justin Leonard on the 19th. Poults is a fiery matchplayer, and he's going to be tough to beat. With Harrington and top seed Steve Stricker out of the Bobby Jones bracket, Poulter's become a very strong contender for the semi-finals. Stricker looked pretty good against Ross McGowan, but the Englishman stuck with him all the way, took him to extra holes, and holed a beauty on the 19th for the win. He'll have a second round match against 18-year old Japanese sensation Ryo Ishikawa.

Match of the day tomorrow is arguably the clash of the South Africans - Ernie Els and Retief Goosen won their matches without too much difficulty, and the only shame is that one of them will be going home tomorrow night.

The bad news of the tournament is that Henrik Stenson, former champion and one of the pre-tournament favourites, had to withdraw after one hole against Ben Crane. The guys in his bracket will be relieved that the big-hitting Swede is no longer a threat, but it's a shame that he won't be playing a tournament that suits him so well.

There were good wins from Yang, Schwartzel, Jaidee, Clark and Karlsson among others today, and we look set for a great week. Check out the comments below for Round 2 predictions, and keep in touch with how it pans out here.

On Your Marks...

We're back.

After a thrilling climax to the 2009 Race to Dubai, we had a week off to enjoy the Nedbank and Chevron tournaments that don't mean all that much, and now we're back in business.

2010 is here (sort of) and it's serious.

Admittedly, there are those who won't take notice of the season until February rolls in, bringing Padraig Harrington and other superstars with it. Players for whom money is no longer an issue have the luxury of taking a long Christmas holiday and leaving the clubs in the bag for a while.

For most though, it's back to work.

These tournaments over the next few week are a great chance for less successful players to get their season off to a good start and relieve a bit of pressure as to keeping their Tour card. Just look at Gareth Maybin - next week one year ago he came to the South African Open in Pearl Valley a callow newcomer to the Tour. He left with a playoff loss and a cheque for €115,000, the perfect start to his season. Richard Sterne won back to back titles in Leopard Creek and Pearl Valley, although his season never recaptured its early success.

With 2010 a Ryder Cup year, every week is important. Edoardo Molinari is at Leopard Creek this week, looking to rack up a few points for Monty's team - if you hadn't noticed, he's pretty good at team golf. While this week's field is dominated by South Africans, there are a few Europeans looking to get their teeth into the Celtic Manor campaign.

That's not to say the field is weak going into tomorrow's play. Ernie Els, having rediscovered some of his best play in 2009, is back, to a venue where he's had his ups and downs. Champion in 2005, he gifted John Bickerton the title in 2007 with an 8 on the final hole. When the Big Easy's playing well it's a privilege to watch him - that swing just makes you feel warm and relaxed.

Ernie's got strong competition this week in some fellow countrymen - Sterne is never better than when on home soil and will want to mount a defence of his crown after a disappointing week at Sun City. Louis Oosthuizen showed some of the form he's promised in the early months of last season, and while he didn't get off to the start he wanted in South Africa he's come on leaps and bounds in experience. Charl Schwartzel has never quite given the golfing world a chance to see his full talent, but I still believe it's going to explode soon - expect him to do well this week. The first four tournaments of the season will be held in South Africa, and the home players are as competitive as they come.

From Europe, Johan Edfors, Robert Rock, Molinari, and Maybin are my tips for the week, with Rafael Cabrera Bello a possibility as well. The young Spaniard captured his first title in Austria this summer and will expect to do well on a course where he finished 4th this time last year.

The golfing season never really ends, and we should be thankful for it. It's very rare that a week of boring golf happens; some of the players you watch this week may not be household names right now, but wait till you can say "I saw him when...." ("he missed 22 cuts in a row", maybe, but let's be optimistic).

2010 promises to be a great year. I'll be back in a few weeks with some predictions for the season, but until then, let's see out 2009 with some sunny South African golf.