Major Player

Now let’s all calm down. Journalists, golfers, fans. Rory McIlroy has won one major. Yes, it was incredible. Yes, it was one of the finest exhibitions of golf I’ve ever seen. Yes, the manner in which he won bodes for many more to come. But it’s still only one major.

So let’s not talk of Jack Nicklaus’s record, of dominance a la Tiger Woods, of a Rory Slam…let’s not allow the future that many see for him cloud the magnificence of his achievement. Already fans are building themselves up for disappointment in the Open in July if McIlroy fails to contend. He’s a young man, he still has plenty of work to do on his game. Yes, there are many more tournament and several more majors to come, I don’t doubt it, but don’t get carried away. Let’s enjoy McIlroy’s burgeoning career as it grows, and not be ever-gazing at a distant target, so difficult to achieve.

Jack Nicklaus won 18 majors. He won them over 24 years, almost to the day. That alone is remarkable. No one else had that kind of sustained brilliance over their career. His win in the 1986 Masters, aged 46, closing as he did with a 65, remains one of the greatest performances in golfing history.

All his life, Tiger Woods was chasing that number. And he seriously believed he could do it. 14 majors on, it looks like his challenge may be fading. I believe that he will be back, that he will win at least one more major, maybe two or three. But five? Maybe after 14, five doesn’t seem a difficult prospect. But let’s put it into context. No player currently playing professional golf, aside from Tiger, has won five majors in their career. Mickelson has four, Harrington, Els and Vijay have three. They’re all in the autumn of their careers. Tiger needs more than they’ve won in their career to top Jack. And, realistically, he needs them in the next six or seven years.

What about McIlroy? Harrington, before the final round, lost the plot and said that Rory was the man to beat Jack’s record. Down-to-earth, sensible Padraig Harrington. So how many does he need? 18. 18 major championships. If he plays at the highest level until he’s 40, he needs one a year. Maybe he’ll still be competitive after 40, who knows? One a year for 18 years, dare I say it, just isn’t realistic. Yes, maybe he’ll have years where he wins two. Three? Only Tiger and Ben Hogan have won three professional majors in a year. Four? Get out of here. Not going to happen.

Even if McIlroy does have the talent, and the patience, and the discipline, and the desire to win all these (and he does, don’t get me wrong), just have a look around. Mickelson isn’t done yet. Nor are McDowell and Kaymer. Charl Schwartzel, always one of the brightest talents in the game, has kick-started his career at a new level with his Masters triumph. And then there are guys who haven’t won one yet – Lee Westwood, Luke Donald, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Nick Watney, Hunter Mahan, Matteo Manassero, Francesco Molinari, Bubba Watson, Paul Casey…the list goes on. There are so many exceptional players on tour now, that every major championship will have several serious contenders for the title.

If you take a look at the list of multiple major champions, 15 of the top 18 won the vast bulk of their majors before the early 80s (Tiger, Nick Faldo, and Seve are the exceptions). What does this tell us? Maybe not a lot. Then again, maybe it does. There are more high-quality players on tour now, who have the capability to win majors, than there were when Jack Nicklaus was around. That’s not to downplay his achievement – having Arnie, Player, Watson and Trevino around didn’t make it easy – 18 majors is incredible – but I don’t think it’s realistic these days. Look at when Byron Nelson and Sam Snead were cleaning up on the PGA Tour – seriously cleaning up – in 1945 I think only two or three other players won PGA Tour events. Nowadays, even if you’re missing Woods, Mickelson, Kaymer, McIlroy from a field – you can still have Bubba, DJ, Kuchar and Watney – all potential major champions.

Tiger Woods dominated the sport for about 10 years. He won over 25% of the tournaments he played. The average round of a player paired with Tiger on Sunday was a stroke or two above their usual Sunday average. He was a presence. I’m willing to say that no one will dominate the game in that way again, certainly not in my lifetime. Tiger showed a glimpse of his old self at Augusta this year, when he mounted a final round charge. But his opposition didn’t back off. Schwartzel and Day just looked him in the eye, and charged right alongside him. Players aren’t scared of him anymore.

I don’t think they’ll be scared of McIlroy either. He showed his humanity at the Masters – he is susceptible to pressure. McIlroy will be World Number One one day, but that position looks like it’s going to be a bit more fluid for the next while. He should win a heap of tournaments, and a few more majors. As to more than that, I don’t know. We’ll have to wait and see.

Don’t build McIlroy up as the man to hit the magic number 19. Don’t turn every major victory into a mere statistic, a mere hurdle on the way to that goal. Recognize him for what he is – a very rare talent in our game, who will entertain us for many years to come. Don’t just look at the destination. Let’s enjoy the journey.