The Final Countdown

With just hours to go before Friday morning's pairings are announced, it's time for a last look at the captains' options for the first two days.

For each of the four sets of matches over Friday and Saturday, the captains must select eight players and omit four. There's been no word from Corey Pavin as to his methods, but Colin Montgomerie has guaranteed all of his players a Friday game, wither in the fourballs or the foursomes. Since Mark James's disastrous singles collapse in 1999, I don't think we'll ever again see any player, let alone three, rested until the singles.

So who will play in the first day's matches?

For Europe, there are the obvious pairings. Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell will be first off the first tee. These great friends and great players have shown their mettle before, and I don't expect either one of them to miss a match - both will be key to European success. McIlroy may be a rookie but, like Martin Kaymer, we all know that that's a ridiculous description. He's going to be a star of the matches.

The second no-brainer is to play the Italian brothers together. Francesco and Edoardo Molinari, qualifying in such different ways, won the World Cup together in China last winter, and you have to expect them to get at least 3 of the 4 matches together. They know each other's games better than any other pairing out of either team, and their games should complement each other nicely - Francesco's steady, tee-to-green solidity, with Edoardo's fiery nature and magical putter.

You can put anyone with Martin Kaymer. I don't wish to disrespect him when I say that the man is a machine. Someone is channelling Bernhard Langer's spirit through this young man only they've picked up a better putter on the way. The rumours are that Lee Westwood will partner the US PGA champion, and no one can deny that it's a mouth-watering prospect. It would also be a clever move - no matter how well Westwood has recovered, it still stands that he's hardly played golf in six weeks, and Kaymer might be the perfect man to ease him back into the competitive zone.

I don't expect to see Peter Hanson, Miguel Angel Jimenez, or Ross Fisher in the morning matches. That leaves us with Luke Donald, Ian Poulter, and Padraig Harrington. Despite his Ryder Cup heroics, I'd leave out Poulter. He's out of form at the minute - give him a foursome match with Fisher in the afternoon, but for the moment stick Donald and Harrington together. Harrington has so much to prove in this competition, but his play in Paris last week (18 birdies in his last 36 holes) was perfect fourball play, and in steady Luke Donald Harrington would have an ideal partner.

Monty has said that all will play on Friday, but I don't imagine that he has his foursome pairings definite yet - he'll have an eye on Lee Westwood's calf and how it's holding up - if he needs to bring Jimenez or Hanson into Kaymer's team it won't cause too much hassle.

Poulter and Fisher have played World Cup together, and Poults will be anxious to continue his Ryder Cup charge.

There is no doubt about it - Europe's pairings are magnificently strong and it's tough to see any of them being beaten. They're not going to have it all their own way though, and we'll see how the American's will line up shortly.

Predicted European pairings:

Friday Fourballs:

1. Graeme McDowell & Rory McIlroy

2. Martin Kaymer & Lee Westwood

3. Luke Donald & Padraig Harrington

4. Edoardo Molinari & Francesco Molinari

Friday Foursomes:

1. Edoardo Molinari & Francesco Molinari

2. Ross Fisher & Ian Poulter

3 Peter Hanson & Miguel Angel Jimenez

4. Graeme McDowell & Rory McIlroy

The Final Countdown - Europe's No. 1

It's all over bar the shouting in Europe, and there has been a lot of shouting.

Across the Atlantic, however, it's only just hotting up. With a little over 24 hours to go before Corey Pavin announces his four wild card picks, several players have one last chance to convince him that they're his men.

So who's going to get the nod?

Tiger Woods is a certainty. Any captain only needs the tiniest excuse to pick the World Number 1, and despite his abysmal play at the WGC Bridgestone, Tiger has shown a bit of form in the last couple of weeks. It hasn't been brilliant, but there's been enough of a spark there to show that the main man is on his way back. His Ryder Cup record is far from stellar, but he's the best player in the history of the world - that alone starts him 1 up in most matches he plays.

There are those who believe that Tiger disrupts the balance of a team - few speak of Azinger's success at Valhalla without noting that Woods was absent - but that's not a case to leave him out. There are plenty of great players on the team this year, and having seen Tiger and Steve Stricker take 4/4 in the President's Cup last year don't be surprised to see them lining up together on the Friday morning.

Pavin has quite a bit of raw youth on the team - Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson are magnificent on their day, but can lose the plot, and Jeff Overton is still looking for that first win. For this reason I expect him to choose a bit of calm and experience - in other words, Zach Johnson and Stewart Cink.

Johnson has come back into form this year with a win in May, and his cool customer persona is just what the Americans need when on foreign soil. He manages his game very well - just look at that Masters win - and seldom misses a putt from inside 8 feet. A solid final round tonight couldn't do any harm, but his name's probably already on the ticket.

Stewart Cink is the last American player to taste major triumph in Britain, and while he's had a quiet year since then, some solid performances in the last month or so have put him in line for a pick. He's been a wild card before, and knows how to reward his captain's confidence. Again, he doesn't lose his calm easily, and he's a solid short game player.

The last pick is difficult. Anthony Kim? Corey Pavin would love to pick him - he, along with Boo Weekley, was the life and soul of that 2008 team, and you know he'll get pumped up away from home. He did nearly enough to qualify before taking time out to have thumb surgery, but has failed to impress in his few performances since then. It would take a leap of faith for Pavin to pick him - if he gets in, he knows he's been lucky.

Sean O'Hair - he put together a couple of decent finishes before missing the cut this week, and he'll be hoping that won't cost him. He is a rookie, however, and Pavin might feel he has enough new blood on the team already. Nick Watney is another who's failed to push through and get those big results - looks like he'll have to wait till next time. Justin Leonard has put in a few big weeks recently and will be hoping the Captain is watching Ryder Cup re-runs - if anyone knows how to win a Ryder Cup it's Leonard.

Monty definitely had the toughest decision of any European captain this year, but it's not going to be a stroll in the park for his US counterpart.

If I had to guess, I think he'll pick the first three and then Kim - he'll bank on the attitude picking up the young man's game.

I personally would take Leonard - at 50ish in the points list it'd be controversial, but the former British Open champion is as experienced as they come for Ryder Cup men - he'll do the job.

We'll know tomorrow.

Luck of the Irish

Was Padraig Harrington lucky to get a Ryder Cup wild card? Of course. But who isn't?

Let's make one thing very clear. If you want to play on the Ryder Cup team, qualify. Anyone who makes the team on merit deserves to be there. Anyone who doesn't, doesn't. Players can give out all they like about the selection process, but it's not as though it's a surprise to them at the end of the year - they knew what the situation was 12 months ago. No one ever deserves a captain's pick (although Edoardo Molinari put that maxim to a severe test on Sunday) and you can thank your lucky stars if you get the nod.

Harrington is definitely the most controversial of the three picks. Molinari showed his class, passion, and grit to win on Sunday and force Monty's hand, and Luke Donald is one of the steadiest players in the world, with a stellar Cup record. So why Harrington?

His record is poor - he didn't win a match in either of the last two outings - and he hasn't won in 2 years. Admittedly, his last two wins were back-to-back majors, but he's failed to perform since then.

Having the right Ryder Cup team involves an awful lot of balancing. A captain is given 9 players and has to decide which three other players will best make up the final team. Individual skill is important, but equally important is their ability to gel with the rest of the team, and to partner as many as possible on the team. The Molinari brothers are an ideal team, but that doesn't mean they'll never be split up.

A captain also has to look at the strengths of his team. In Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy, he has two of the best drivers in the world. Graeme McDowell and Francesco Molinari are two fantastic iron players. Martin Kaymer and Peter Hanson are calm players with steady games.

Padraig Harrington has the best short game of any European player. No doubt about it. He makes pars where bogeys look a pipe dream. He rolls in pressure 6-footers like they were tap-ins. The US team has Mickelson, the greatest wedge player in the world. It has Stricker - one of the most beautiful putters of his generation. You cannot leave out a short game of the quality of Harrington's.

Of course he needs to hit fairways and greens as well, but just look at it in a matchplay context.

Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson are going to be crashing drives past Harrington, putting an iron on the green, and then? If they sneak a few birdie putts past the hole, and this smiling, scary-eyed Irishman keeps making pars from gorse bushes, what's it going to do to them?

He will break your heart in matchplay, and that's what you need on the team.

We can't be sure that Casey, Westwood, McIlroy are going to make those clutch pars. They'll more likely make the necessary birdies. Padraig Harrington will grind like he always does - he'll frustrate the American players - not with wins, but with halves - and wear them down.

Monty got it spot on - nobody wants to play Padraig Harrington in matchplay.

Look at how those three majors came - battling back from disaster to hole the clutch putt on the 18th in Carnoustie, staring down a five-wood to 3 feet at Birkdale, and rolling in a 15-footer for par at Oakland Hills. They took character and guts. That's what you'll get at Celtic Manor.

A man who will not give up.

Monty's Choices

With one week to go, the race for the Ryder Cup team has never been more fiercely contested. Victory last Sunday for Sweden’s Peter Hanson saw him leapfrog Paul Casey into the automatic standings, leaving the Englishman trusting Colin Montgomerie to pick him.

In 2008, U.S. Captain Paul Azinger decided that he would abandon the traditional position of picking two cards, and rather pick four, reducing the number of automatic positions available. On being named European Captain, Monty asked the board for an extra pick to bring the number to three, and they agreed.

At this point, it’s difficult to say whether this is a blessing or not. In general, three picks does seem better than two – there are several examples of where a player has qualified for the team by virtue of some early-season heroics before losing any semblance of form. Having seen captains get stuck with such players, it’s not surprising that first Paul Azinger and now Colin Montgomerie have sought more flexibility. That said, in a year like this with so many clamouring for favours, a captain would be forgiven for wishing the team picked itself – Monty will be criticized heavily no matter who he picks on Sunday night; then again, it’s all part of the job.

Every year it seems that the team gets tougher to get into, and this is no exception. Two-time 2010 PGA Tour winner Justin Rose needs a phone call, as does Madrid champion Luke Donald, Open runner-up Casey, and 3-time major man Padraig Harrington.

The key point about these four men is that they won’t be teeing it up at the Johnnie Walker Championship at Gleneagles this Thursday, thereby conceding their last chance to make the team on merit.

Monty warned all hopefuls back in May that he wouldn’t be picking anyone who didn’t show at Gleneagles, but that may not be an ultimatum he can keep. With the above four players all choosing to play the first FedEx Cup playoff instead, his options become limited if he ignores them.

However, there are several players lining up at Gleneagles who wouldn’t disgrace a Ryder Cup team. Edoardo Molinari is an ideal pick for Monty to make if he misses out on direct qualification – with his World Cup winning partner and brother Francesco already in the squad, the former U.S. Amateur Champion would be an obvious selection.

Big-hitting Spaniard Alavro Quiros has been out of form since the summer began, but Montgomerie is an admitted fan, and he may feel that Quiros brings a bit of firepower that Europe will need to match America’s Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson.

The home crowd would love to have Welshman Rhys Davies lining out at Celtic Manor on October 1st, but his failure to fire since his home tournament over two months ago may have cost him. However, a good week for Davies now could prove the difference.

What does Monty want from his picks? Individual talent is important, of course, but even more so is the ability to gel with the team. 2008 was the first time the Americans were seen to have as good a team spirit as their opponents, and they brought home the bacon.

Perhaps the key balance for Monty to strike is that of innocence and experience. Of the nine men holding down an automatic spot at the moment, five are Ryder Cup rookies. Admittedly, when your rookies include Martin Kaymer and Rory McIlroy, you’re in a strong position to start from, but it is necessary to temper these players with some elder statesmen. It is for this reason that Montgomerie is likely to pick Harrington – whatever about his current form, he’s got the mental strength to find a matchplay win anywhere. Paul Casey is also likely to receive a wild card – he’s shown his one-on-one credentials with two consecutive runner-up finishes in the Accenture World Matchplay.

Miguel Angel Jimenez is just the sort of player Monty will hope can hold his spot this week in Scotland – he won’t get fazed by Bubba pasting it 340 yards – Miguel will just blow out his cigar smoke, follow his belly calmly down the fairway, and get on with his own mechanical round.

Robert Karlsson is another player who showed wonderful calm in his past appearances, but a torrid year leaves him outside the qualifiers. A strong showing in Gleneagles might tempt Monty to pick the phlegmatic Swede, but it’s unlikely that anything short of a win would suffice.

When Thomas Bjorn was overlooked for a Ryder Cup pick a few years back he threw a strop; don’t rule out something similar if one of the favourites doesn’t make it in. The critical point, however, is this: You have 12 months to qualify for the Ryder Cup team – if you haven’t done enough by then, you don’t deserve a place in the team. If you get a wild card, you’ve been lucky. No one is entitled to the pick, and there will be some very nervous players on both sides of the Atlantic on Sunday.

Calm During the Storm

Having decided that Padraig Harrington's going to win the PGA Championship, it's time to have a look at the non-Irish players best placed to battle him for the Wanamaker Trophy.

Whistling Straits is long and punishing. No player is going to escape trouble this week, and the importance of a scrambling short game cannot be overstated. With 950+ bunkers, the odds are you're going to hit a few of them. By my reckoning, that must mean at least four holes are just bunker.

Not only will a razor-sharp short game be necessary, but whoever lifts that trophy is going to have to have an ice-cold nerve. When all around are losing theirs, he's going to be keeping his head. It's going to be the man who makes the tough pars that'll win this week.

No surprise that I've gone for Harrington then. Anyone who can get up and down from 70 yards to win his first major after playing the worst hole of his career has the bottle required.

So who else is able to play that calm game, and not get rattled by early errors?

Home boy Steve Stricker is definitely in that category - at 43, he's been around the block, and the major's all that's missing from his resumé. Even with a chance to go World Number 1 this week, don't expect him to get the shakes. He's also one of the best putters in the world today, and on a course where holing the 6-footers is going to be crucial he'll be in the mix.

Retief Goosen is a man who's won two majors in trying circumstances with equanimity. His putting isn't of quite the same quality as when he won in Shinnecock in 2004, but his game's picked up in the last two seasons, and he's definitely got something left in the tank. After an appalling 7 to start his 3rd round last week at Firestone, he held it together before shooting a brilliant final 65 to finish 3rd. His long game is straightforward and, in a year where Ernie Els has returned to winning at the highest level, his compatriot won't want to let the Big Easy take all the credit.

Earlier in the year, commentators were questioning whether Luke Donald had what it takes to finish off a tournament. He silenced his critics with a win in Spain, and has continued what's been an excellent season. He's got one of the tidiest swings you'll ever see, and he leads the PGA Tour in sand saves in 2010. If there was ever a man for plodding around the course and getting the job done it's Donald - when all the focus is on his fellow Englishmen Paul Casey and Justin Rose, the pressure's off Donald. The only concern I'd have is that he doesn't hit the ball all that far - but Paul McGinley managed a 6th place finish here in 2004, showing that if you're converting around the greens, you don't have to bomb it.

As for the other big guns, who knows?

Only Tiger knows where his head's at right now, and he could surprise us. I really don't think that Whistling Straits is the place to try and find your game, however, and he's going to be faced with a lot of par putts this week from 5-10 feet. Throughout the season his putting has looked average at best, and I think he's going to have to get a pick from Captain Corey if he's to make the Ryder Cup team.

Phil Mickelson revealed that he's suffering from a form of arthritis, which might contribute to his uncertain swinging in the last few events he's played. Either way, that final round at Firestone must have rattled him, and I don't see him doing the job this week. Maybe the chance to take top spot preyed on his mind, maybe not. If he gets in position he's got the experience to finish it off, but he will be punished if he's as wayward off the tee.

Hunter Mahan was supreme last weekend at Firestone, and he's a confidence player - I'd expect him to challenge. Sean O'Hair is another guy who's been fantastic for the past month or so. Aside from that, I'm going to continue to tip my players of the year, Bo Van Pelt and Matt Kuchar - I think both will feature at Celtic Manor, but a strong finish here would cement their place in Pavin's team.

I first saw Whistling Straits when it hosted the PGA in 2004. It's a unique course, transporting you from Wisconsin back to Ireland and Scotland. Whether it's the nostalgic feeling of watching the pros hacking out of dunes, or the wriggle you give on hearing that the 17th is named "Pinched Nerve", it's a fantastic venue for spectators.

It sounds like a cliché, but I have never seen a major championship that's so open. Any number of players could be in contention on Sunday, but whoever wants to win it is going to have to show some serious nerves.

Just Like Home?

No major championship is ever boring, but not many are like the 2010 U.S. PGA.

Although sometimes treated as the forgotten major, its crucial timing in a Ryder Cup year always piques the interest. This year, that's not the only reason.

The PGA is being played at Whistling Straits, one of the most unusual and spectacular courses on the American continent. Host to the PGA in 2004, the course is modelled on the links courses of Ireland, with signposts pointing east to Ballybunion, Royal Portrush, and Portmarnock stationed outside the clubhouse.

As with so many top US courses, it was the genius of Pete Dye that brought Herb Kohler's dreams to reality. Dye and wife Alice came to the shores of Lake Michigan, shifted some soil around, got some dunes going, and hey presto - you'd think you were in Co. Kerry.

The course is long - certain holes require close to a 300-yard carry off the tee - but the emphasis is on accuracy. Paul McGinley, not noted for his length, finished 6th here in 2004 when Vijay Singh took the title. As with most majors, you can't have a weakness, but the focus is on hitting fairways and scrambling. On a course with an average of 53 bunkers per hole, you've got to be confident of getting up and down - you're not going to avoid them all.

So how will this semi-Irish course suit the Irish players? The wind will blow, and as Graeme McDowell has already noted, there'll be days when he'll feel like he's at Portrush or Royal County Down. It should give a slight advantage to the British and Irish players, but not much more than that. The top players in the world these days know how to play links golf - just look at how tough it's been to get a homegrown winner of the Open.

One man whom it might help more than others is Shane Lowry - with far less experience of major golf than his fellow countrymen, he'll feel more at home on this course than he would on Hazeltine, or Baltusrol. With his one win coming in the gales at Baltray, Lowry will be looking to capitalize on any advantage present. I don't expect him to contend seriously, but a solid 3-day performance at the Open shows that his game's in decent nick, and I'd be confident of him making the cut.

Darren Clarke had a decent finish here in 2004, tying for 13th place, and some recent form will give him hope this week. However, the fact is that his priorities have changed in the last few years. He showed at Loch Lomond that he still has some great golf left in him, but to expect him to hold it together for four days at the highest level is to much to ask. While he still harbours hope of making the Ryder Cup team, he can realistcally look forward to being a very important vice-captain.

Graeme McDowell is looking to reignite his game after the inevitable come-down following his U.S. Open triumph. He showed some good form last week in Ohio, and the course should suit him down to the ground - he hits it long and straight, is a fantastic iron player, and isn't afraid to make the putts he needs. I expect to see him in the mix this week, and when he gets pumped he's tough to stop.

Rory McIlroy - The bookies have him at 3rd favourite in the field, and they know what they're doing. He's continuing his relentless run of good golf, shooting four rounds under par last week at Firestone, one of only two players to do so (the other being Bo Van Pelt - tune in tomorrow).

He's steadily moving towards one of the top spots in the world, and the first major isn't too far away. I've always worried slightly over his putting, but since his win at Quail Hollow it seems to be in better shape, and if he can roll the ball well this week he's got to be a contender.

Finally, the main man. His last win worldwide came at the U.S. PGA two years ago, and that's not right. Padraig Harrington is back - he's always a slow starter in the season, hitting his straps once summer rolls around, and his performances in Killarney and Ohio have shown him to be hitting form just in time for the final major. The fact that his putting was off in his T-9 finish last week actually encourages me - it shows that his long game's back in shape, and let's face it - Harrington's putting's never going to be dodgy for too long.

I honestly think Harrington is going to win this week - the focus is still there, and the game is rejoining it. He loves nothing better than going head to head with the world's best, and he's got as much major experience as anyone out there now. The fact that a win would secure his spot on Monty's team for Celtic Manor would be icing on an already delicious cake.

I'll be back tomorrow to weigh up the chances of the non-Irish players in the field, but they'll have their work cut out to beat Paddy.

Back on Track

It's been a long time coming, but Padraig Harrington finally looks to have got going in 2010.

Maybe that's unfair - he's had a host of top-10 finishes, but the reality is that that simply isn't good enough. A man with his credentials isn't happy unless he's in the winner's circle, and he hasn't tasted victory since that last major triumph two years ago.

All this year I was convinced another win was just around the corner. Harrington always starts the season slowly - while Charl Schwartzel and Richard Sterne fill their boots in February and March, Paddy waits until summer swings around. From early this season he continued to amaze around the green, making pars from sand and water, from bush and tree, from road and grandstand. He couldn't seem to hit a fairway, and yet still ground out scores. Grinding isn't enough though - he never seemed to be able to pull out a 64 or 65 when required.

Last week in Killarney, things were different.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday - he rescued decent scores. He put himself in contention, but was going to need a big round on Sunday to have a chance. He found it.

His driving straightened up, and he hit some of the best irons I've seen him play all year. His approaches to the par-4 15th and par 5 16th were perfect examples. As always, he made the putts. Shooting 64 was all we could have asked of him - Ross Fisher played too well to be caught. While missing out on another home crown is a disappointment, Harrington knows the big picture - he's got his game in shape in time for the WGC this week, the last major of the year, and he's all but sewn up his spot on Monty's Ryder Cup team.

Padraig Harrington is the best clutch putter in the world right now. When Tiger's head is right, it's a toss up, but right now you can't beat Harrington for up and downs. All you need to do is look into those eyes and you'll see the calm, almost terrifying, focus. What he's lacked this year is the ability to kick on and make a charge when the leader forges ahead. On Sunday he showed that he's got it back. His back nine run was magnificent to watch - but for that birdie putt sliding by on the 17th Ross Fisher was in for a nervy last hole. Everyone on tour knows you don't want a matchplay finish against Harrington when he's on form, and he's found form at the right time.

I'm not going to say anything about the Bridgestone last year because the memories are too painful. I don't expect Harrington to win it, because with fairways as narrow as Akron's I think he still needs another few rounds to get his driving together. But look on it as a preparation for the PGA at Whistling Straits the next week. Pick up a top-10 in Akron, and move on.

Harrington's priorities have changed since winning those three majors. He can now afford to have more exact goals. The majors and the Ryder Cup are what he looks at first. It's no surprise that he's looking to fire on all cylinders just in time for both.

Open Season

It's U.S. Open week - the one week where the USGA get their hands on the world's greatest players and give their sadism a good airing.

This year the tournament returns to Pebble Beach, where, in 2000, Tiger Woods never gave the field a look-in, winning by a whopping 15 shots.
The USGA have set it up as a U.S. Open should be, so par's a good score. The greens will run at 12 on the stimpmeter all week, and the rough is long.
Pebble Beach isn't the longest course, at a 7,040 yard par 71, but don't be fooled. Its small greens make scoring very difficult, and the yardage reflects the risk-reward nature of some of the holes. There are par 4s to tempt the big hitters off the tee, while the 18th, one of the greatest finishing holes in golf, is reachable in two to set up an eagle opportunity, but it'll take nerve. The fairway has been narrowed significantly, and plenty of ProVs will heading for a swim at the weekend.

To compete at the U.S. Open, you need to be a quality ball-striker, hitting fairways and greens. You also need to be a great scrambler when things go wrong. Which they will. In other words, you can't have a weakness. Every round will test every facet of your game. If you manage to hit the greens, great - they're small, so you won't be hitting the world's longest putts. If you miss them, you'll do well to get up and down for par.
Mental strength is key - you can't get upset if you go without a birdie for 12 holes or so - grind out the pars and you won't be too far away.

A few names jump out as immediate contenders. Luke Donald has rediscovered his best form, with a handful of top-5s and a win in Madrid. He's always been a great striker of the golf ball; he's got a simple swing and doesn't make many mistakes. This year, his scrambling has come to the fore, with his short putting being as solid as anyone's. He's got a poor record in the U.S Open to date, but he won't bother too much about that - he's playing the best golf of his career.
Fellow Englishman Lee Westwood won in Memphis on Sunday with another supreme display. He's the best ball-striker in the game, and it's simply a matter of time before he gets the first major on his CV. The only problem I can find is his chipping - it's still relatively weak for a player of his standard, and it's going to be tested at Pebble Beach. Unless he gets the feel of the greens early on, he's going to drop shots.

Phil Mickelson produced a masterclass to win the U.S. Masters in April. He's won the AT&T event at Pebble three times - it's true that it's a different set-up this week, but he'll still get that winning vibe when he gets on the first tee. He's finished runner-up at the U.S. Open a record five times, including last year, so we know he has the game for it. His short putting has improved drastically this year following work with Dave Stockton, and he looks as confident as anyone from 5 feet.

Rory McIlroy is the brightest star in golf, but I don't think he quite has the maturity to close out a U.S. Open victory - you need a hell of a lot of discipline to be happy with pars all the way round, which only comes with experience. He can get frustrated when birdies are flowing - in the U.S. Open, pars give you momentum, and I'm not sure that he understands that yet. He's a fantastic player, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him notch up a top-10, but the title will take another few tries.
Don't rule out his friend Graeme McDowell - he's coming off a win in Wales, and looks to be back to top form. He gets seriously pumped when he's in contention, and his Ryder Cup efforts showed us that he's not scared of the Americans on home soil. He's got a solid all-round game, and his putting looks great.
As for Padraig Harrington - he's showed flashes of brilliance this year, but hasn't managed to put four good rounds together. I still fancy him to bring it out this week - his game's only an iota off being seriously good, and mentally speaking, he's as good as anyone. He's one of the greatest scramblers I've ever seen, and he loves grinding out a score. He finished in a tie for 5th back in 2000, so he'll feel comfortable at the venue. I'm confident Harrington's shaping up for a great summer - no better way to start.

What about Tiger? He smashed every record he could find in 2000, surely that counts for something? His game showed improvement at Memorial two weeks ago, but there's no substitute for competitive play, and he simply hasn't played enough. His driving still isn't under control, and a loose driver will lead to a missed cut at Pebble.
On the flip side, he's the greatest player in the history of the game. He played badly at the Masters and came 4th through sheer willpower. You can bet your life he's going to bring out that willpower again this week, as he looks for major number 15.
The focus is sure to be on him this week, but the cameras knkow that in Mickelson and Westwood Tiger has some top-class challengers. He's been welcomed by the crowds since his return, and is going about his business quietly. The media frenzy won't get going unless he puts himself in contention - if he does, strap in.

Ernie Els and Jim Furyk have each won twice on Tour this year, and have three U.S. Opens between them. Ernie's cooled off a bit since the last win, but don't rule him out too fast, and as for Furyk, he's got to be in the top few this week - he doesn't get rattled easily, and he could make a par from hell.

That's the big names dealt with - who else could challenge? Lucas Glover was a dark horse last year when he held on on the final day; is there a Glover for 2010? KJ Choi has the consistency, and should challenge, but my outside calls are four Americans, all vying for Ryder Cup spots as well as a first major - Ben Crane, Matt Kuchar, Bo Van Pelt and Brian Gay.
You won't find four players more consistent in 2010 - with 17 top-10s between them, including a win for Ben Crane, all four are solid ball-strikers who make a lot of putts.

The U.S. Open is a week where the amateur golfer can enjoy himself. After watching tournaments be won at 23 under par, with par-5s reduced to drivers and 8-irons, it's a relief to see the world's best struggle a bit. That nett 83 the other day doesn't seem so bad when you can snuggle into your chair and watch Mickelson miss a green from 50 yards, or Vijay pull a drive into a watery grave.
The U.S. Open is a true test of golf: no one flukes their way to a win. Whoever lifts the trophy on Sunday evening will have deserved it, no matter what the circumstances.
Whether it's an 18-hole playoff or a victory by 5 shots, you can be sure that no one's going to feel safe until the ball has fallen into the cup on the 18th green.

Team America

So we've looked at who Monty's going to have carrying the flag for Europe in October. What's the opposition going to look like?

Once again, let's be self-indulgent and look at my team a year before the matches, last September:

Tiger Woods

Phil Mickelson

Steve Stricker

Stewart Cink

Lucas Glover

Anthony Kim

JB Holmes

Boo Weekley

Hunter Mahan

Nick Watney

Jim Furyk

Ben Curtis

The most notable absentee is probably Zach Johnson, and after getting his career back on track with a win last month he looks in good shape to make Corey Pavin's team. His strength is in his consistency, and he seems to have got it back. The man to lose out might well be Ben Curtis - he showed class in the Valhalla matches, but has done little since. The one reason to be wary of writing him off is that he has tended to up his game in the summer - watch out for him on the links, where he's tasted major success, as well as putting in a close finish in 2008.

Boo Weekley, the crowd hero of the 2008 matches has failed to fire at all since then, and is well down the rankings. You get the feeling that he might be a captain's pick for his team spirit alone, but, like Sergio in Europe, he's going to have to give Pavin a bit of form to justify the choice - there are too many quality players vying for spots just to give one away for free.

Stewart Cink is in the list mainly by virtue of his Open victory at Turnberry last year - with so many points still available he's going to have to up his game a little to hold his place.

So how about the guys fighting for a spot?

Matt Kuchar has been one of the most consistent players on Tour this year, despite not taking home any silverware yet. With 5 top 10s in 2010, he's ranked at 10 in the Ryder Cup points.

Ben Crane has won already this year, and I fancy him again both this week in Memphis and at Pebble Beach. He's a great ball-striker who's got it rolling on the greens recently as well. At no. 8 in the list, with his current form, he looks a strong favourite to make it to Wales.

Next up are Ricky and Rickie. Rickie Fowler, undoubtedly one of this blog's favourites, showed class last week both before and after Justin Rose took the title from him. He's had 5 top 10s this year - not bad for a rookie. You get the feeling that the win is only so far away, and he's knocking on the door for Pavin's team. Remember his Walker Cup record - 7/8. Everyone wants to see McIlroy-Fowler sooner or later. It might just happen this autumn.

As for Ricky Barnes - he's followed a good showing in the Masters with some steady play, a Saturday 62 last week lifting him to a T-3 finish. He came close at the US Open last year, so we know he likes the majors. Even if he doesn't qualify on merit, he'll be in Pavin's mind if he keeps up his form. He was US Amateur Champion back in the day, so you know he likes his matchplay.

Finally, Dustin Johnson. A winner at Pebble Beach earlier this year where he defended his title, he'll be looking forward to the US Open returning there. He hasn't done much since then, but he sits at 7 in the Ryder Cup list, so a good summer will guarantee him a spot. He's the kind of guy you want playing fourball for you - smashes the driver as far as Alvaro Quiros and has a surprisingly deft touch around that green.

There are others in the mix - Sean O'Hair, Bo Van Pelt, Jeff Overton, Bill Haas, who all have work to do to push on in, whilst Nick Watney and JB Holmes need good summers to hang on to the places I gave them last year.

As for Tiger Woods, let's have no more of this nonsense.

He'll be there.

Ryder Cup Watch

Last September, I drew up a list of the teams I thought would face off at Celtic Manor this October for the Ryder Cup. Having found the lists in an untroubled drawer, they make interesting reading, with only 3 months of qualification left. We'll get to the Americans next week, but let's have a look at who I thought Monty would have on the first tee in Wales.

Padraig Harrington

Lee Westwood

Robert Karlsson

Henrik Stenson

Paul Casey

Ian Poulter

Graeme McDowell

Rory McIlroy

Sergio Garcia

Ross Fisher

Martin Kaymer

Alvaro Quiros

Of Nick Faldo's team, I'd decided that Justin Rose, Soren Hansen, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Oliver Wilson would fail to reappear. Despite Miguel's win in the Gulf earlier this year, I'll stick by that decision. As for my 12 players - I'm happy with most of them, but there are a couple who look a little bit wobbly. What's more, there are guys not on that list who've mounted a charge.

The most obvious absence is Luke Donald, in the light of his performances over the last few weeks. Donald has had a great season, with a few solid finishes Stateside, before returning to Europe and collecting a 2nd place and then a win. His triumph on Sunday has hopefully silenced those who doubted his killer instinct. The pressure was on after his late, late disaster in Wentworth the week before, and he proved himself up to the task. He now looks set to be on the bus to Wales in the autumn, and with a record like his (5 1/2 out of 7), Monty will be delighted.

Donald is such a steady player that he suits the format perfectly - he'll keep a foursomes game chugging along, and can be the reliable player in a fourball to allow his partner burn it up.

Donald has a 4/4 record in the foursome matches, all played with Sergio Garcia.

Sergio's the man over whom the biggest question mark floats. He's had a lousy time of it. He won in the Orient in December 2008, and since then he's fallen off the radar. His mental game's shot, and his putting's still useless. Surely that makes it easy - he won't qualify, and he doesn't deserve a pick. Not quite.

Sergio's always seemed able to turn it on in the Ryder Cup. He's brilliant in the team matches, whether with Jesper Parnevik or Luke Donald. After missing every putt for months beforehand, suddenly they all roll in. He's a firey, energetic player, and you need a couple of them in your locker room.

When he fails to qualify, there'll be a lot of chat about the picks. Can Monty afford to give him one. If he shows any form at all in the summer he'll get one - he's got a couple of majors and a WGC to go at in the last 6 weeks. Without that justification though, it'd be a brave captain to choose him.

What about the Swedes? I'm still confident Karlsson will make it - he's got a win this year and he showed in Wentworth that his game's on the mend. He needs a little more consistency, but I see him challenging strongly at the Open this year, and I think he'll qualify.

Stenson is a trickier one - he's been out of form since winning the Players last May, and he's shown no signs of coming back. Unless he mounts a charge in the summer, he ca kiss his chance goodbye.

The man who might well jump into his shoes is Wales' one shot at a home boy. Rhys Davies has showed his talent this year, with a win in Morocco and a couple of runner-up spots. He's a good ball-striker, a wonderful putter, and has the grit that'll be oh so important come Ryder Cup Sunday. The way he's playing at the moment, he might make it on merit, but he'll certainly be at the front of Monty's mind.

Apologies to Simon Dyson and Ross McGowan, but I think they'll drop off the automatic spots pretty soon. One man who won't go away so easily is Francesco Molinari - he showed his team play with big brother Edoardo in the World Cup, and both bros are pushing for spots. Francesco's playing in Wales this weekend, and I fancy him to finish at least top-5.

So there you go. Really, I've no idea of what's going to happen. If I had to cut three from my list, it'd be the Swedes and Sergio. Ross Fisher has work to do, but he strikes me as a guy who makes most of his money in the summer months.

The team's going to have a mix of talents - steady grinding, scrambling, raw talent, big hitting, and deft touches.

One thing's for sure - it'll be a team bursting with quality.

The Home Straight

What did I say yesterday? That Mickelson and Westwood didn't have it in them this week because of their short putting? Maybe it's time for a rethink.

Yesterday was one of the greatest days of golf ever seen at Augusta, and one the best rounds you'll ever see anywhere. Phil Mickelson set the course alight for a 40-minute period in which he picked up 5 shots. Maybe his short putting isn't brilliant, so he decided not to bother with it. A 30-footer for eagle on the 13th, holing from the fairway for eagle on the 14th, and oh-so-close to a holed 70-yard wedge on the 15th. He had to settle for birdie there, but it was enough to put him, if not in the driving seat, at least in the front of the car.

Next to this dazzling display, you could be forgiven for thinking Westwood was failing to deliver. In reality, he shot a very composed 68, recovering well from a bogey at the 12th to take a one shot lead again by the end of the day. He's looked calm all week, and the putter didn't seem to give him too much trouble yesterday. Not to rule out the guys behind them, but if it is a two-horse race, it's going to be one hell of a race.

Tiger and KJ Choi will play together for the 4th day in a row, and on -8, they're still in the tournament. They need to get off to a fast start, but we all know Tiger's capable of anything. Choi probably doesn't have enough in the tank to win, but I'd expect him to turn in a lucrative 3rd or 4th place finish. Tiger's driving still looks a little too wild to rely on him to shoot a mid-60s score, and he missed some uncharacteristic putts yesterday. As always, I'm not saying he won't, but....

I don't see the winner coming from outside the final two pairings, and the guys behind Woods and Choi are playing for top-5s, barring heroics. The people's favourite Freddie Couples shot a great 68 yesterday, rolling in an eagle of his own down the stretch, and he looked to be in his comfort zone again. The dream is still alive, but only just. Knowing Freddie though, he's probably waiting a couple more years to win - a guy should have a bit of maturity. He's just waiting till he hits it a bit shorter.

It was a disappointing day for Ian Poulter, who never really got it going, and slipped back to -6. He won't be shrugging on the green jacket this year, but it's still been an important week for him in the major learning curve.

It's unusual for the winner in the Masters not to be in the final pairing, and with the 3-shot difference between 2nd and 3rd, that stat doesn't look like changing this year. There is one guy who might have a few words to say about that, but he's yet to win a major without holding the 54-hole lead.

Whatever happens on Sunday, we're guaranteed another exhilarating day of golf. That's what the Masters does. You're not comfortable with a 3-shot lead and four to play - there's plenty that can go wrong, or right, on that back nine.

That's Augusta.

Part 2

Once again, my favourite week of the year is living up to expectations.

It's been a great start to the 2010 US Masters, and will only get better in rounds 3 and 4.

Some big names have dropped out, most notably the Irish challengers, but there's plenty of talent atop the Augusta leaderboard.

Let's get one thing clear right away - it's great to see Tiger back where he belongs. No one quite knew how his return to the course would go, but it's been business as usual. The World Number has played two solid days to leave himself in a very dangerous position at -6, 2 shots off the English duo of Ian Poulter and Lee Westwood. Also tied with Woods are Phil Mickelson, KJ Choi, Ricky Barnes, and last week's winner Anthony Kim.

So what next?

Everyone knows Saturday as moving day, and all eyes will be on Tiger to see what he does. It remains to see how the course sets up today, but you've got to think he'll be looking to shoot something around a 68 and get to double figures. -10 could well be the lead going into the final round, and he tends not to lose a final round lead. In fact, the only man who's taken a final round major lead from him to win is sitting one shot behind him, at -5. You can still back Y.E. Yang at 30/1 with the bookies - if that's not worth a fiver each way I don't know what is. Once Yang gets into the mix in a tournament, he doesn't quickly fall away. He's in fine shape here, and has looked solid so far. The same goes for his fellow South Korean KJ Choi. He's a man who's returned to form this year, and before Yang exploded on to the scene he was set to be Asia's first major winner. Don't rule him out.

I wish I thought differently, but I don't think Lee Westwood is going to pick up his first major this week. He's definitely getting much closer, but his putting still isn't top class, and on the back nine on Sunday, that's what matters. Whose putting is top class? His playing partner, Ian Poulter. I can hardly remember him missing from inside 10 feet this year, and he's going to relish the challenge of the final group today. I think he's going to outscore Lee by 2 shots, and set up a great chance to take the green jacket.

It's the putting that stops me fancying Mickelson as well - in general it's been ok, but you can't win a major if you're worrying about the 3-footers.

Anthony Kim is the USA's answer to Ian Poulter - a fired up, cocky young man, who's full of belief after a win in Houston. He made a couple of great saves yesterday, and he's definitely in the hunt.

It was sad to see the old guard slip a little yesterday, but Freddie Couples and Tom Watson are still there at -3, and while a fairytale might be a little too far, a top-10 finish isn't.

The way the course is playing this week, I don't see someone bursting from the pack with a 65 today, but still in it at -3 is Dane Soren Kjeldsen, one of the solidest players on the European tour over the past 18 months. Again, I think a win is out of his reach at this stage, but don't be too surprised if he finishes in the top 5 or 6.

The Masters weekend is always a joy, and this year shows no signs of being any different.

Partners in Crime

With everyone watching Tiger, it's easy to forget that there are two guys who have to play their own game right beside him for 5 hours.

We were all waiting to see who'd be given the task, embraced by some, feared by others. It's fallen to two of the PGA Tour's in form players, KJ Choi and Matt Kuchar, in the penultimate group of the day.

In the early 2000s, playing with Tiger cost players an average of a stroke or two on their round, whether from the noise of the crowds, the man himself, or whatever. Guys are acclimatizing a little better these days, but there's no doubt that the atmosphere will be electric tomorrow.

Choi has declared himself delighted, and he's the sort of player who might well feed off the pomp. Kuchar played with Woods in Augusta back in 1998 - both men have changed since then, but Kuchar's been one of the solidest players this year - don't expect him to crumble.

Straight out of the blocks will be Louis Oosthuizen, one of my long shot picks for the week. With 6 top-15s in a row in Europe, including a 2nd and win in his last two starts, the young South African's red-hot and will be anxious to join Els, Goosen, and Schwartzel in the charge.

Padraig Harrington and Schwartzel join up with Stewart Cink in the 4th-last group, which is one of the grandstand pairings of the day. Ian Poulter and Steve Stricker follow them, before Tiger hits the 1st tee.

At 10.13 local time, the strongly-fancied Ernie Els will play with last week's winner Anthony Kim and teenage sensation Ryo Ishikawa, in what should be another entertaining trio.

There's going to be some great golf to watch as always, and from the look of the weather forecast it's never going to play too big a part.

The par-3 competition is about to get underway today - no player has done the double yet, and indeed I've seen players walk off the final hole if they think they're going to win the par-3 and curse themselves. Golf is a game for superstitious people, but maybe, on the 50th anniversary of the first par 3 tournament, a little history can be made.

Masters Tale of the Day

1968 - final round - 17th hole. Argentina's Roberto De Vicenzo, reigning British Open Champion, made a birdie 3. After signing his scorecard however, he discovered that his playing partner Tommy Aaron had written down a 4. The higher score had to stand, leaving him one shot behind Bob Goalby, and missing out on the 18-hole playoff the following day.

Most golfers know a good deal of misery, and you have to applaud de Vicenzo for his acceptance of his loss. His charming "What a stupid I am!" has gone down in the legends of the game.

For anyone who wants a happy ending, in 1970 he was awarded the Bob Jones Award for outstanding sportsmanship in golf.

Masterclass

It's that time of year again.

It's not too much to say that when Masters week gets close, I'm like a child looking forward to Christmas. It's my favourite 4-day stretch of the year, and it never disappoints.

Whether it's players getting trapped in the azaleas and rhododendrons, the par-3 contest everyone tries desperately to lose, Sunday at the 16th, or the incredibly stilted presentation ceremony, the Masters makes golfers happy. And it's on BBC - so no ads!

This year we all know where the focus is, but all that means is that a few of our tips can slip in under the radar. The main man gave his first press conference yesterday, and the golfing world was glad to see him back.

Ok, I'm not going to say he's not going to win, because you can't say that. Let's be honest, you will never see Tiger priced at 5/1 for any tournament again, so I still say it's not a bad bet. Realistically though, no matter how good your practice is, there's no substitute for match practice, and that's where the difficulty is. On the other hand, he's not going to play unless he believes he can win. The most important thing to remember is that he's the greatest golfer in the history of the world.

Augusta is a course for horses - out of 73 Masters 15 guys have won 42 (roughly), so you can never expect the rookies to triumph (no one since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979). Looking at the rookies this year though, there's plenty of great form coming in. Bill Haas already has a win this year, and in Francesco Molinari and Charl Schwartzel are two of my outside bets. The younger Molinari's about 150/1 with the bookies, and 17/1 to register a top-10. Schwartzel posted another top-5 last week in Houston, and has really got his putter hot this year, which is what Augusta demands. At 50/1, Ernie Els's protege is great value for a punt.

Little Tim Clark has a track record here, and at 100/1 he's grossly overpriced. At 70/1 you can pick up Vijay Singh and Robert Allenby.

My favourite overall is about 22/1, and it's Retief Goosen. He's had a host of top-5s here in the past, and he's in superbly consistent form this year.

But enough about the betting tips. Masters week is there to enjoy, not to make money. Maybe I'm still bitter about Kenny Perry blowing a lead with 3 to play and costing me an 80/1 bet last year, who knows?

Keep an eye here as the week goes by; I'll be back with more musings each day.

Masters Tale of the Day

1935 - final round - 15th hole. Gene Sarazen turns to his caddy, a tall, black man known only as "Stovepipe", and asks him what he needs to win. "4 threes, Mr. Gene". In other words: eagle, par, birdie, birdie.

Sarazen takes a 4-wood, hoods the face, and hits it 235 yards. Into the hole. For an albatross 2. 3 pars later he was into a playoff with Craig Wood, which he would win.

To this day, ask any true golf fan about "the shot heard around the world".

American Idol

Everyone knows about Rory McIlroy. He's no longer a callow rookie who’s fun to watch, but a seasoned pro whose name will be on that Sunday leaderboard more often than not. He’s big in Europe, he’s big in America. McIlroy’s the sort of guy the fickle American fans can get behind, and believe me, that means a lot if you’re playing the PGA Tour. Just ask Colin Montgomerie.

But do the Americans have their own McIlroy on the rise? Is there a young, exciting player in the States who’s going to carry the flag in future majors and Ryder Cups?

How about Rickie Fowler?

Still a virtual unknown this side of the water, Fowler is fast making a name for himself in the US. The number one ranked amateur golfer in the world for 36 weeks in 2007 and 2008, and twice Walker Cup-player with a 7-1 record, he hit the headlines in 2008, shooting -1 in the first round of the US Open.

He turned pro at the end of last year, and finished T-7^th in his PGA Tour professional debut in October. A week later, he lost to Troy Matteson in a playoff at the Frys.com Open, just his second Tour event as a pro. Last month, Fowler had another opportunity to win in Scottsdale, before finishing second to Hunter Mahan.

To get a feel of what Fowler’s like – you have to see him, you have to hear him. He’s a flashy-dressing, motorbike-jumping, swashbuckling guy, and he brings it all to the golf course. His swing is a homemade thrasher of a swing, terrifyingly fast, but it gets the job done. During that 2^nd place last October, he had an eagle in each round and a hole-in-one.

He doesn’t watch himself for hours on video, he doesn’t over-analyse his game. He just goes out there and plays golf. In interviews he seems cool and collected. Maybe he’s going to need a bit of analysis to improve over the years, and as he matures I’ve no doubt this will come. At the moment though, he’s a breath of fresh air on to the ever less dominant PGA Tour.

How does he compare with McIlroy? Physically speaking, they’re the same height, weight, and Fowler’s just 5 months older. They even have similarly terrible haircuts.

There’s no doubt that McIlroy is the more polished player – he has the classic swing and more professional manner, but there’s more to the comparison when you go deeper. Both rely on their long games a little too much, and need to hole some more putts. Both are ready to take on that big shot when it really counts. Both love the pressure of competing. Despite Fowler’s wilder approach to the game, he’s got a coolness and maturity about him that make you feel he’s here to stay.

Rory McIlroy is a future World No. 1. He’s going to win at least a few majors and heaps of Ryder Cups. Rickie Fowler – we don’t know. He’s still the raw youth that McIlroy was two years ago. He probably doesn’t have the consistency to ever be the best player in the world, but he’s going to compete. I’ve no doubt that he’ll face McIlroy down the stretch of tournaments to come, and he’ll prevail in some of them. They’ll play Ryder Cups against each other, and they’ll share some wins there.

Rickie Fowler is the perfect sportsman for the American fans – he’s young, wild, attractive, and talented. He’ll play to the rowdy crowds, and get pumped up on Sunday afternoons. He’ll miss three cuts running and win the next week out. The sponsors have noticed this and every week he’s a got a new “fashionable” look.

For some time the US Tour has lacked what Europe has in spades – the early 20s players of the next generation. It’s great to see Ernie, Furyk, Mickelson and co. winning, but we also need to see who’s waiting to take over.

Watch Rickie Fowler.

Tiger Owes Us Nothing

Who do we think we are?

Since 1997, (or 1994 if you really know your stuff) Tiger Woods has been one of the premier entertainers on the planet. He may be a golfer first and foremost, but for us, he’s a guy we love to watch do his thing. His exceptional physical talent and terrifying mental powers have made him the greatest athlete of our generation, and he has delivered, time and again, providing us with some of the greatest sporting moments in history.

So where do we get off looking for apologies for his behaviour off the course? How exactly has he let us down? He’s let himself down. He’s let his family down. Maybe he’s let his sponsors down. But us?

It never ceases to amaze me how arrogant the sports-watching couch potatoes can be. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll be the first to shout angry and helpful advice at Johnny Sexton when he pushes a kick wide of the posts.

Nowadays, however, viewers seem to feel a sense of ownership over Tiger, Federer, O’Driscoll, and others. By watching Tiger, do you own some of the Tiger brand? If you do, I’d say sell it and live on the proceeds for the rest of your life.

I was upset when I heard the revelations about his private life, because I’m a massive Tiger fan. But did I feel betrayed? Did I demand an apology? I don’t have that high an opinion of myself.

Tiger Woods owes us nothing. People will climb on to higher horses than they’ve ever imagined and tell us that it’s us who have put Tiger where he is – without us he wouldn’t be the star of sport, without the viewers he’d be nothing. So ask yourself this – did Tiger come to the viewers looking to be watched? Or did we go to Tiger, because we were beginning to realise that the man in the red shirt was the most exciting prospects in the history of sport? Did we go to him, following the human instinct to cling to something special and not let go?

In 2005, on the 16th hole at Augusta National, Tiger Woods hit what was, given the circumstances, the greatest golf shot I have ever seen. With Chris DiMarco lying 12 feet away for birdie, Tiger faced a horrendously difficult chip shot, the ball against the collar of the rough, the green sloping every which way. No one who watched that shot live can forget the second the ball spent on the lip of the hole, with the Nike swoosh looking out at us, in the greatest advertisement ever made, before it toppled in to the cup.

So what was your reaction? Was it to nod calmly, and say “Well I’m glad I managed to sort that one out for him”? Or was it like mine – a leap into the air followed by an animal yell, partly in excitement, and partly in pain as I crashed into a table.

Tiger’s success is not a product of our support. It is a product of his diligence, work rate, and drive to be better. It is a product of his parents’ care for him and, perhaps, too much pressure on him. He is a self-made man, and we cannot claim an iota of credit for his fame.

If you claim to be let down by his affairs, answer me this. Where were you when he was being shunned as a young black teenager in his local club? Where were you when his father died?

Even his sponsors, who do have claim to being let down – look at how much money they have pumped into him – they spotted a business opportunity and invested in it. The returns have been staggering. After 15 years of unmitigated success they now have to take some rough with the smooth.

Tiger Woods has not only changed the game for the viewers; he’s changed the game for the professionals. The PGA and European Tours today are stronger for Tiger’s contribution. Pros have to play against a phenomenon – never before has there been so much extra kudos attached to a victory when one man is in the tournament field. If you can play the great man and beat him you’re spomething special. Y.E. Yang became the first man to take a major from Tiger after Woods held the 54-hole lead – that’s not forgotten in a hurry.

Tiger Woods owes us nothing. 20 years ago no one could watch him play. 40 years from now, no one will be able to watch him play. We are the most privileged golfing generation yet – how about we stop moaning, sit back, and enjoy it.

Into The East

The PGA Tour heads to Florida for the month of March, and where better to start than PGA National?

The Honda Classic has thrown up some great winners over the years, including Padraig Harrington in 2005, for his first win across the pond. Harrington will be looking to get his game back on track after a mixed 2009, but for him, the season's only beginning.

It's a fantastic field - Westwood, Casey, Villegas, Allenby, Els, defending champion Yang, and Sergio Garcia to name but a few. There is as much talent this week as in any event so far this year, with the exception perhaps of the WGC World Matchplay.

So who'll do it?

Robert Allenby's my top pick for the week - he's playing great this year - another top-10 last week in Scottsdale boosts the stats some more. Always a great iron-player, Allenby's started to get his putting going in 2010 with a new technique, and watch out for him in all four majors this year. Even if the putter isn't too hot this week, PGA National's a ball-striker's course.

Once you hear those words, Paul Casey, Lee Westwood and Sergio Garcia instantly jump up the list. Three of the finest ball-striker's in the game have all enjoyed some success this year already, and all three think they're the next major winner.

Tim Clark's another guy who's a good bet this week - the one downside is that he's never played the course before, but the upside is his fantastic play. Little Tim's a fighter, and he's frighteningly accurate with the irons. His one weakness is his chipping, but if he hits enough greens this week I'd expect him to finish very high up.

Ernie Els needs to get a little more consistency into his game, but he's shown promise this year. He'll definitely be in the mix in a major or two, and he's won here before.

Charles Howell has had a rough run for a guy with so much talent, but another high finish last week makes me think his game could finally be coming to fruition. The Schwartzel of the US?

Long shot this week? Watch out for Scott Piercy. He had a decent finish last week at Scottsdale, and gave this event a scare last year.

For me though, this tournament is exciting for another reason. Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy are both teeing it up this week, and I'm hoping they'll get at least one round together. Europe's new young talent is a little more experienced and proven that American Fowler, but they're two guys who we'll be seeing a lot of in the coming years, and expect a few back-nine battles between them. Fowler doesn't have the same measured swing as McIlroy, being a bit more swashbuckling, but he's got a hell of a long game and a great mindset.

There are more similarities between these guys than the closeness in age and a good driver though. Check back here on Monday for a closer look at how McIlroy and Fowler square up against each other; in the meantime, watch out for them on the Sunday leaderboard.

More Than A Match For Anyone

"Don't get me wrong, I really respect every professional golfer, but I know I haven't played to my full potential and when that happens, it will be just me and Tiger."

When Ian Poulter came out with this statement in January 2008, irritated heads were shaken and indulgent smiles were smiled. It was just another wild comment from a player who had yet to show the game to back up the cockiness.

After this week's performance in the deserts of Arizona, all people are wondering is whether Tiger will be back to face him.

The top 6 in the World makes interesting reading: three Americans - Woods, Stricker, Mickelson, followed by three Englishmen - Westwood, Poulter, Casey.

Stricker, Mickelson, and Westwood are all fantastic players - don't be surprised if they pick up a couple of majors between them in the next two years, but there's something different about Poulter. He's got that fire behind his eyes, that frightening stare when he's in the zone, and that strut. He's got more self-belief than anyone on Tour, and now, he's shown the world he's got the game to match.

When asked for a turning point in Ian Poulter's career, I can pinpoint it to the minute - Sunday afternoon in Royal Birkdale, final round of the 2008 Open Championship. Poulter was playing ahead of Padraig Harrington, who would go on to win. He faced a 12-foot putt on the final green, which he had to make to stay just two shots back, and give himself any chance of staying in contention. He made the putt.

We all know what happened then - Harrington played the shot of his life on the 17th - a 5-wood to three feet to set up an eagle to allow him a canter down the home hole.

But look at it from Poulter's point of view - that putt on 18 was for him, a putt for a major championship. He piled the pressure on himself, and came up trumps. When the chips were down, he faced the music. I don't know how many more clichés I need to explain it any more clearly.

That putt told us, and more importantly him, that he had what it took. Nick Faldo put his trust in him at the Ryder Cup later that year, and he delivered. Europe lost that week, but the one image I always have is of Graeme McDowell ("G-Mac") and Poults high-fiving after beating im Furyk and Kenny Perry 1 up in the Saturday fourballs. It was terrifying. I have never seen two more pumped golfers in the one moment. It looked like they'd need a ten-mile run to calm down.

It took Poulter until November 2009 to register his next win, but he's clearly on a new road. He came so close to winning in Abu Dhabi this year only to come up a shot shy, but his performance at Tucson was magnificent. He had some tough matches - he was nip-and-tuck with Justin Leonard in the first round before prevailing on the the 19th, and he never led Thongchai Jaidee until the 17th.

In the semi-final and final, he was in a class of his own. He drove the ball superbly, hardly bothering to look where it went. His ironplay was devastating, and he's never putted like that before. He holed over 90% from 10 feet and in this week - I can only remember him missing one in the last two matches, and even that just lipped out of the cup. It was fitting that his final stroke of the week was a 10-foot putt on the 34th hole - he brushed it straight in the middle once again.

Ian Poulter has hit the afterburners, and he's not going to slow down anytime soon. The WGC titles are second only to the majors, but he won't want to be second only to anything. He's got his sights firmly set on Augusta, and don't be surprised to see him in the hunt there as well.

It would be unfair not to mention Paul Casey - he played some fantastic golf this week, and was part of one of the most amazing matches the Accenture has ever seen, when it took him 24 holes to dispatch Camilo Villegas to the consolation match. He showed his mettle on those extra holes, rolling in a couple of important 5-footers to stay in the match. In the final, he looked to get off to a flyer, stitching his second at the 2nd for a kick-in eagle, but he never got the momentum back. Twice he pegged Poulter back from 4up to just 2, but he could get no further. The match was won on two holes, for me - the 12th, where Poulter shortsided himself on the par 3, and got up and down for par, and the 15th, where Poulter stitched a tricky chip shot to two inches, leaving himself a birdie. Even before Casey's own birdie attempt slid agonisingly by, you got the feeling it was game over.

English golf was the dominant force between about 1890 and 1920, deposing the Scots from the top. Since then the Americans have been in charge. With three Englishmen in the top 6, and just seven Americans in the top 20, it looks as if that sands might be shifting once again. It won't be English dominance, but it could well be European, with so many fine young players on the up and up. Certainly, the European challenge going into every major has never been so strong.

The Ryder Cup is later this year, and Colin Montgomerie's team will be out for revenge. Yesterday's finalists will be there, you can be sure of that, and I, for one, can't wait to see those eyes of Ian Poulter staring down a putt on the 18th in Celtic Manor.

Close Brackets

We're down to four. And what a four.

Ian Poulter. Sergio Garcia. Camilo Villegas. Paul Casey.

You'll find it tough to find 4 more firey, confident players than these four.

They've all got that look in their eyes, they've all got the fist pump when a putt drops.

Even at the beginning of the week, if you were picking someone who'd pull off that miracle shot, stick that 3 iron to two feet, it'd be one of these four.

That's not to say it was a foregone conclusion - plenty of calm players have won this tournament before, plenty will win it again. But with these four in the semis, we know we're in for fireworks.

The quarters weren't everything we hoped for - there was some good golf, but for three of the winners, they got into a commanding position early and never gave up control. Poulter had to fight a little harder, holing a 6-footer for par on the last to beat Thongchai Jaidee, after coming bak from 1 down with four to play. Poulter kept his composure, but Jaidee'll be kicking himself - he gifted the Englishman two holes to reverse the lead just when he was looking good.

Paul Casey and Camilo Villegas went 3 up early on Stewart Cink and Retief Goosen respectively. Cink was a little unlucky - he hit a couple of great putts that stayed on the edge, but Casey wasn't going to be beaten. Anytime Cink got a little closer, he upped the tempo. The best example of this? The par 5 14th hole: Cink played a cracker into the green to leave himself 20 feet for eagle. Casey hit his to 12 feet and holed the putt. Game over.

Goosen hasn't looked in touch all week, to be honest. He won matches with pure grit, but once he came up against a guy who was really playing top drawer golf, he was out of his depth. Villegas didn't give him a chance, and the Colombian's drive on the par 4 15th set up a 2-foot eagle putt to win 4&3.

Sergio Garcia didn't have to play well to beat Oliver Wilson today, but he still holed a couple of crunch putts that got the fist going. As usual, he's looked better on the greens in a week of matchplay than any other week in the year. His confidence has built round by round, and he looks like he believes he can win it now.

Garcia v. Poulter. Casey v. Villegas.

It really is too close to call, but I'm going to do it anyway.

I think Poulter has the mental edge over Garcia. He holed a great putt on the last to win the match this morning, and he knew he would. He's had that look in his eyes all week. You get the feeling he'd take it as an insult if he was beaten, and he doesn't like being insulted.

Garcia's won some tight matches this week, but he's going to have to play really well to shake off Poulter, and I just don't see him managing it. Poulter will make the up-and-downs when he needs to, and there are few things more frustrating for opponents.

You've got to pick Casey in the other match. He loves Arizona, he loves the course, he loves matchplay, and he loves his golf game right now. He's only played 56 holes in four rounds. He's made birdies and eagles all week. His putting's on song, and his long game's never far off song. I still think he needs a close match if he's to lift the trophy, but maybe this'll be it.

Villegas has played great all week, and the drive on the 15th in the quarters showed his ability to pull out that miracle shot. But he wasn't tested against Goosen, even less so than Casey was against Cink. He's less experience than Casey of matchplay golf, and I think it's going to show this evening.

Whatever happens, we're in for one hell of a championship match tomorrow.

Poulter to beat Garcia

Casey to beat Villegas

Busy Weekend

Some old faces, some new - plenty of the seeds have crashed out before the quarter-finals at this week's World Golf Championship, but it hasn't affected the quality of the golf.

Saturday sees both the quarters and semis, and whoever gets through the latter has another 36-hole match tomorrow. You have to work hard to win this tournament, and the 8 men left in the field know it.

One man who's had a smoother run than most is Englishman Paul Casey - with three successive 5&4 victories, Casey hasn't had to play the last four holes in any match so far. Today he's up against Stewart Cink, the lone American, who, by contrast, has had to fight for each win - a 19th hole victory over Charl Schwartzel joining two wins on the 18th. This is the match of the championship so far, and I'm backing the winner to lift the trophy. I get the feeling that Cink might just nip this one - there's nothing like a few close matches to get you going.

Sergio Garcia finally got his game into a little better shape in the last 16, and he needed it to beat the doughty Tim Clark 2&1. Clark played great all week, once again showing how a short hitter can contend on a mammoth course, but the Spaniard was too good for him. Sergio faces Oliver Wilson, who beat him in the Matchplay in Wentworth in 2008, in the quarter-finals.

Wilson is experiencing a welcome return to form after a slow 2009 season, and he'll look to continue it against his Ryder Cup teammate. Wilson overcame Luke Donald in 20 holes yesterday, holing from 39 feet to win the match. More importantly, he held his composure after Donald escaped the jaws of defeat with a 50-foot birdie on the 18th. Many players would have crumbled after that, but Ollie stuck to his game and held on. He's got a very compact, organized swing, and it should be an interesting match against the unpredictable Garcia.

The third Englishman in the field is Ian Poulter, who faces surprise package Thongchai Jaidee. Poulter defeated Jeev Milkha Singh comfortably yesterday by 5&4, while Jaidee won by the same margin over Ryo Ishikawa. The difference is that Jaidee shot +1 and still won by that margin - Ishikawa gave him no test at all, losing 5 holes to pars around the turn. Poulter continued his gritty golf against Singh, and I can't see him losing today. He's got the fire behind his eyes again, and he's a good bet to make the final.

The fourth match features Retief Goosen and Camilo Villegas. Neither had it easy yesterday, Goosen beating Watney on the final hole, and Villegas running out a slightly more comfortable victor over Ben Crane, 3&2. Goosen's got his game going better than the first couple of rounds, and his putting's looked solid all week. I can't help feeling however, that the power of Villegas will be too much for him today, and that the Colombian will prevail. Neither has great credentials in this tournament, and they'll both be up for it, but I think the unflappable Goosen just hasn't got the magic this week if he needs a miracle. Villegas has.

They're sure to be enthralling matches once again, and will set up a couple of great semis tonight.

Poulter to beat Jaidee

Villegas to beat Goosen

Garcia to beat Wilson

Cink to beat Casey

Falling Stars

Another day, another host of birdies, eagles, upsets, and all-round great matchplay golf.

Top seed Steve Stricker went out yesterday, and the favourites continued to fall today. Indeed, of the 16 players left in the field, only Paul Casey and Ian Poulter remain from the top 12 seeds at the beginning of the week. Casey continued his blistering progress with a second consecutive 5&4 win, while Poulter produced another gritty performance to defeat Adam Scott on the 17th. With Stricker, Harrington, and Robert Karlsson gone, the Bobby Jones bracket looks well set up for Poulter, and you can bet your bottom dollar he won't settle for a semi-final spot.

Defending champion Geoff Ogilvy had a unusually comfortable victory yesterday, and it clearly doesn't suit him. The Australian was outclassed by fiery Camilo Villegas, and his stellar record at this event takes a big hit. Villegas looks in the mood to rattles some cages, and will fancy his chance tomorrow against Ben Crane, who dealt with an out of sorts Y.E. Yang in round 2.

Luke Donald continues to be my fancied pick for the week - he played another glorious round to defeat Robert Allenby 6&5, and faces fellow Englishman Oliver Wilson in the third round. Wilson lost a 2-hole lead against Rory McIlroy, but held his nerve to close out the match on the 20th hole, sending home another of the pre-tournament and crowd favourites.

Lee Westwood has never had a great record in this tournament, and Nick Watney kept the US hopes alive by beating Westwood 2&1. Watney played solid golf, making 5 birdies, and Westwood never really got into the game on the back nine.

Sergio Garcia produced a great fightback to beat Anders Hansen by 2&1, but the Spaniard still looks far from convincing. Tim Clark will face him after a 3&2 win over Martin Kaymer, and I think Clark's clever game will be too much for Sergio.

Another fantastic match should be Charl chwartzel against Stewart Cink - the Open Champion came up wit another fast finish to recover from 2 down and beat Sean O'Hair, while Schwartzel played some beautiful golf to beat Jim Furyk. The young South African lost a lead on the back, but kept his composure and won 3&2. Don't be surprised if the winner of that match makes it to at least the semi-final.

It would be wrong not to mention Thongchai Jaidee, who, after beating Padraig Harrington yesterday, crushed a lack-lustre Robert Karlsson in round 2. He faces Ryo Ishikawa in the third, after the Japanese teen survived another close finish against Ross McGowan. It may not be the 3rd round we expected, but that's what matchplay's about.

The final match to finish was a clash of the titans - Ernie Els and Retief Goosen, each trying to resurrect his game and relive the glory days. It wasn't a display of great golf, but enthralling nonetheless. Nip and tuck till the finish, Els looked to have let it slip before he holed a beautiful birdie putt to take it to extra holes. Ernie had to do the same on the 19th, before Goosen played the shot of the match to set up a winning eagle on the 20th. He's not going to beat Nick Watney with golf like that though, and I'm sure he'll give himself a talking to tonight.

It's getting tough to pick winners now - we've seen enough upsets to be cautious of making any predictions, but I still can't resist. Here's my call for the 3rd round - whether I'm right or wrong, it's sure to be another great day of golf.

Jaidee to beat Ishikawa

Poulter to beat Singh

Clark to beat Sergio

Donald to beat Wilson

Watney to beat Goosen

Villegas to beat Crane

Cink to beat Schwartzel - match of the round, could go all the way

Casey to beat Gay

A Flying Start

We were promised exciting matchplay golf. We got it.

The first day of the Accenture World Matchplay did not disappoint. There were close finishes, upsets, top seeds pushed to the limit, and some simply incredible golf.

Best to start with the casualties - Padraig Harrington is heading home with a last-64 cheque for $45,000 after losing 3&1 to Jeev Milkha Singh - the golf wasn't spectacular but it was a great match - Harrington was spraying the ball around and relying on his major-winning short game to stay in it. In the end, the workman-like swing of Singh was too much for the Irishman, and the Indian No. 1 will face Matt Kuchar in the next round.

Kuchar, as predicted here last night, was another giantkiller, taking down Anthony Kim. Again, Kim was off-form, but Kuchar played a solid game to win 3&2.

Defending champion Geoff Ogilvy had an easy start to his campaign, defeating Alex Noren 7&5. Ogilvy didn't play his best golf, but he'll be happy to get the ball rolling again on a course he loves.

Mike Weir produced the performance of the day - 9 birdies in the 12 holes he played blew away Alvaro Quiros by 8&6 - Paul Casey looked gobsmacked when he heard about his 2nd round opponent in interview, but after Casey's 5&4 win over Stephen Ames, that could be one of the highlights of tomorrow.

Luke Donald played some great matchplay golf to hold off Graeme McDowell 2&1 and set up a showdown wit Robert Allenby tomorrow - Donald looks back in good touch this year, and I fancy him to go far this week. Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer are both in his bracket, and both produced fantastic back nines to win their matches. McIlroy was 4 down through 6 holes, 2 down through 14, and won on the 18th. I don't care what the commentators say - that's the sort of match you want in the first round. An early finish might be a little easier, but if you don't get pushed in the early rounds you won't be ready when the going gets tough. Just look at Ogilvy last year - he hardly finished a match before the 18th all week. Forget what they say about the players needing a rest - they are all fit guys, and golf's their job. The guys who went to 18, 19, 20 holes today are my favourites to win tomorrow.

Two such were the Molinari brothers, who both lost out only just - Edoardo was 4 up on Stewart Cink with 9 to play, but the Open Champion holed everything on the back to sneak a win.

Another late finisher was Ian Poulter, who beat Justin Leonard on the 19th. Poults is a fiery matchplayer, and he's going to be tough to beat. With Harrington and top seed Steve Stricker out of the Bobby Jones bracket, Poulter's become a very strong contender for the semi-finals. Stricker looked pretty good against Ross McGowan, but the Englishman stuck with him all the way, took him to extra holes, and holed a beauty on the 19th for the win. He'll have a second round match against 18-year old Japanese sensation Ryo Ishikawa.

Match of the day tomorrow is arguably the clash of the South Africans - Ernie Els and Retief Goosen won their matches without too much difficulty, and the only shame is that one of them will be going home tomorrow night.

The bad news of the tournament is that Henrik Stenson, former champion and one of the pre-tournament favourites, had to withdraw after one hole against Ben Crane. The guys in his bracket will be relieved that the big-hitting Swede is no longer a threat, but it's a shame that he won't be playing a tournament that suits him so well.

There were good wins from Yang, Schwartzel, Jaidee, Clark and Karlsson among others today, and we look set for a great week. Check out the comments below for Round 2 predictions, and keep in touch with how it pans out here.

One On One

Certain weeks of the year are special. Augusta. Open Week. The Ryder Cup is perhaps at the top of the tree. But the Accenture World Matchplay isn't far behind.

Whether to play or to watch, matchplay is exciting. It's a totally different game - the player who churns out 4 70s every week can pack up early - you need to be able to turn on the gas to triumph this week. 64 one day mightn't be enough, a 73 tomorrow could win 3&2. Every shot your opponent hits changes your own game plan, no matter how many pros say they just play their own game.There'll be matches ending on the 12th green, and players still going on the 24th teebox.

So who's going to win? Some players suit the format - in the early 1900s US amateur Jerry Travers was practically unbeatable in matchplay but couldn't string 4 rounds together in strokeplay. Geoff Ogilvy is the latest Accenture king, with 2 victories and a runners-up spot in four appearances. With a win from his only tournament so far this season, and a third child for him and his wife, the easygoing Australian will be feeling good again. He faces Swede Alexander Noren in the first round, and you've got to think his pedigree will count against the rookie.

That being said, we'll have upsets in the first round, as always. Matt Kuchar could be a decent long odds bet against Ryder Cup hero Anthony Kim, and expect Padraig Harrington to have a tough ride against Jeev Milkha Singh. Francesco Molinari will be looking to continue his good form into a win against Zach Johnson, and Chris Wood will fancy his chances against Lee Westwood, who has had little success in the Matchplay for a player of his talent.

The Gary Player bracket looks to be particularly strong this year, with Ogilvy, Westwood, Henrik Stenson, and Ernie Els heading it up. Stenson is a former winner of this event, and at 30/1, Els is my pick for the championship. A quarter-final loss last year his best performance, the Big Easy nonetheless has a phenomenal matchplay record throughout his career, and with 3 top-12s from 3 this year so far, I think it's Ernie's time to shine. A win against Ryan Moore in his first round could set up a clash with Retief Goosen, another resurgent South African. Let's face it though - there won't be any easy matches all week.

Prime match-ups of the first round?

Robert Karlsson v. Rory Sabbatini

Ross Fisher v. Thongchai Jaidee

Padraig Harrington v. Jeev Milkha Singh

Ian Poulter v. Justin Leonard (Plenty of people expect the fiery Poulter to go far after his Ryder Cup success)

Luke Donald v. Graeme McDowell (Tough to call, but I reckon Donald's a good bet to reach the quarters)

Camilo Villegas v. Dustin Johnson (Johnson's coming off a win at Pebble Beach, and will fancy his chances against the Colombian making his first appearance of 2010)

Hunter Mahan v. Charl Schwartzel

Stewart Cink v. Edoardo Molinari (Cink has finished 2nd and 3rd here in the past, and after his Open win last year should put in another solid performance, while Molinari will be hoping to set up a clash with his brother in the quarter-finals.

Check out the comments below to see how I think the draw will pan out - at the moment my quarter-finals are:

Steve Stricker v. Ian Poulter

Ernie Els v. Geoff Ogilvy

Lucas Glover v. Luke Donald

Stewart Cink v. Paul Casey

Who knows just how wrong I could be - prediction is a fool's game this week, but who'd complain with those for our final 8?

Keep in touch here to stay up to date with the week as it progresses. Until then, enjoy the golf.