Saturday, February 20, 2010

Close Brackets

We're down to four. And what a four.

Ian Poulter. Sergio Garcia. Camilo Villegas. Paul Casey.
You'll find it tough to find 4 more firey, confident players than these four.
They've all got that look in their eyes, they've all got the fist pump when a putt drops.
Even at the beginning of the week, if you were picking someone who'd pull off that miracle shot, stick that 3 iron to two feet, it'd be one of these four.
That's not to say it was a foregone conclusion - plenty of calm players have won this tournament before, plenty will win it again. But with these four in the semis, we know we're in for fireworks.

The quarters weren't everything we hoped for - there was some good golf, but for three of the winners, they got into a commanding position early and never gave up control. Poulter had to fight a little harder, holing a 6-footer for par on the last to beat Thongchai Jaidee, after coming bak from 1 down with four to play. Poulter kept his composure, but Jaidee'll be kicking himself - he gifted the Englishman two holes to reverse the lead just when he was looking good.

Paul Casey and Camilo Villegas went 3 up early on Stewart Cink and Retief Goosen respectively. Cink was a little unlucky - he hit a couple of great putts that stayed on the edge, but Casey wasn't going to be beaten. Anytime Cink got a little closer, he upped the tempo. The best example of this? The par 5 14th hole: Cink played a cracker into the green to leave himself 20 feet for eagle. Casey hit his to 12 feet and holed the putt. Game over.
Goosen hasn't looked in touch all week, to be honest. He won matches with pure grit, but once he came up against a guy who was really playing top drawer golf, he was out of his depth. Villegas didn't give him a chance, and the Colombian's drive on the par 4 15th set up a 2-foot eagle putt to win 4&3.

Sergio Garcia didn't have to play well to beat Oliver Wilson today, but he still holed a couple of crunch putts that got the fist going. As usual, he's looked better on the greens in a week of matchplay than any other week in the year. His confidence has built round by round, and he looks like he believes he can win it now.

Garcia v. Poulter. Casey v. Villegas.
It really is too close to call, but I'm going to do it anyway.
I think Poulter has the mental edge over Garcia. He holed a great putt on the last to win the match this morning, and he knew he would. He's had that look in his eyes all week. You get the feeling he'd take it as an insult if he was beaten, and he doesn't like being insulted.
Garcia's won some tight matches this week, but he's going to have to play really well to shake off Poulter, and I just don't see him managing it. Poulter will make the up-and-downs when he needs to, and there are few things more frustrating for opponents.

You've got to pick Casey in the other match. He loves Arizona, he loves the course, he loves matchplay, and he loves his golf game right now. He's only played 56 holes in four rounds. He's made birdies and eagles all week. His putting's on song, and his long game's never far off song. I still think he needs a close match if he's to lift the trophy, but maybe this'll be it.
Villegas has played great all week, and the drive on the 15th in the quarters showed his ability to pull out that miracle shot. But he wasn't tested against Goosen, even less so than Casey was against Cink. He's less experience than Casey of matchplay golf, and I think it's going to show this evening.

Whatever happens, we're in for one hell of a championship match tomorrow.

Poulter to beat Garcia
Casey to beat Villegas

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