Open Season

It's U.S. Open week - the one week where the USGA get their hands on the world's greatest players and give their sadism a good airing.

This year the tournament returns to Pebble Beach, where, in 2000, Tiger Woods never gave the field a look-in, winning by a whopping 15 shots.
The USGA have set it up as a U.S. Open should be, so par's a good score. The greens will run at 12 on the stimpmeter all week, and the rough is long.
Pebble Beach isn't the longest course, at a 7,040 yard par 71, but don't be fooled. Its small greens make scoring very difficult, and the yardage reflects the risk-reward nature of some of the holes. There are par 4s to tempt the big hitters off the tee, while the 18th, one of the greatest finishing holes in golf, is reachable in two to set up an eagle opportunity, but it'll take nerve. The fairway has been narrowed significantly, and plenty of ProVs will heading for a swim at the weekend.

To compete at the U.S. Open, you need to be a quality ball-striker, hitting fairways and greens. You also need to be a great scrambler when things go wrong. Which they will. In other words, you can't have a weakness. Every round will test every facet of your game. If you manage to hit the greens, great - they're small, so you won't be hitting the world's longest putts. If you miss them, you'll do well to get up and down for par.
Mental strength is key - you can't get upset if you go without a birdie for 12 holes or so - grind out the pars and you won't be too far away.

A few names jump out as immediate contenders. Luke Donald has rediscovered his best form, with a handful of top-5s and a win in Madrid. He's always been a great striker of the golf ball; he's got a simple swing and doesn't make many mistakes. This year, his scrambling has come to the fore, with his short putting being as solid as anyone's. He's got a poor record in the U.S Open to date, but he won't bother too much about that - he's playing the best golf of his career.
Fellow Englishman Lee Westwood won in Memphis on Sunday with another supreme display. He's the best ball-striker in the game, and it's simply a matter of time before he gets the first major on his CV. The only problem I can find is his chipping - it's still relatively weak for a player of his standard, and it's going to be tested at Pebble Beach. Unless he gets the feel of the greens early on, he's going to drop shots.

Phil Mickelson produced a masterclass to win the U.S. Masters in April. He's won the AT&T event at Pebble three times - it's true that it's a different set-up this week, but he'll still get that winning vibe when he gets on the first tee. He's finished runner-up at the U.S. Open a record five times, including last year, so we know he has the game for it. His short putting has improved drastically this year following work with Dave Stockton, and he looks as confident as anyone from 5 feet.

Rory McIlroy is the brightest star in golf, but I don't think he quite has the maturity to close out a U.S. Open victory - you need a hell of a lot of discipline to be happy with pars all the way round, which only comes with experience. He can get frustrated when birdies are flowing - in the U.S. Open, pars give you momentum, and I'm not sure that he understands that yet. He's a fantastic player, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him notch up a top-10, but the title will take another few tries.
Don't rule out his friend Graeme McDowell - he's coming off a win in Wales, and looks to be back to top form. He gets seriously pumped when he's in contention, and his Ryder Cup efforts showed us that he's not scared of the Americans on home soil. He's got a solid all-round game, and his putting looks great.
As for Padraig Harrington - he's showed flashes of brilliance this year, but hasn't managed to put four good rounds together. I still fancy him to bring it out this week - his game's only an iota off being seriously good, and mentally speaking, he's as good as anyone. He's one of the greatest scramblers I've ever seen, and he loves grinding out a score. He finished in a tie for 5th back in 2000, so he'll feel comfortable at the venue. I'm confident Harrington's shaping up for a great summer - no better way to start.

What about Tiger? He smashed every record he could find in 2000, surely that counts for something? His game showed improvement at Memorial two weeks ago, but there's no substitute for competitive play, and he simply hasn't played enough. His driving still isn't under control, and a loose driver will lead to a missed cut at Pebble.
On the flip side, he's the greatest player in the history of the game. He played badly at the Masters and came 4th through sheer willpower. You can bet your life he's going to bring out that willpower again this week, as he looks for major number 15.
The focus is sure to be on him this week, but the cameras knkow that in Mickelson and Westwood Tiger has some top-class challengers. He's been welcomed by the crowds since his return, and is going about his business quietly. The media frenzy won't get going unless he puts himself in contention - if he does, strap in.

Ernie Els and Jim Furyk have each won twice on Tour this year, and have three U.S. Opens between them. Ernie's cooled off a bit since the last win, but don't rule him out too fast, and as for Furyk, he's got to be in the top few this week - he doesn't get rattled easily, and he could make a par from hell.

That's the big names dealt with - who else could challenge? Lucas Glover was a dark horse last year when he held on on the final day; is there a Glover for 2010? KJ Choi has the consistency, and should challenge, but my outside calls are four Americans, all vying for Ryder Cup spots as well as a first major - Ben Crane, Matt Kuchar, Bo Van Pelt and Brian Gay.
You won't find four players more consistent in 2010 - with 17 top-10s between them, including a win for Ben Crane, all four are solid ball-strikers who make a lot of putts.

The U.S. Open is a week where the amateur golfer can enjoy himself. After watching tournaments be won at 23 under par, with par-5s reduced to drivers and 8-irons, it's a relief to see the world's best struggle a bit. That nett 83 the other day doesn't seem so bad when you can snuggle into your chair and watch Mickelson miss a green from 50 yards, or Vijay pull a drive into a watery grave.
The U.S. Open is a true test of golf: no one flukes their way to a win. Whoever lifts the trophy on Sunday evening will have deserved it, no matter what the circumstances.
Whether it's an 18-hole playoff or a victory by 5 shots, you can be sure that no one's going to feel safe until the ball has fallen into the cup on the 18th green.