The Final Countdown - Europe's No. 1

It's all over bar the shouting in Europe, and there has been a lot of shouting.

Across the Atlantic, however, it's only just hotting up. With a little over 24 hours to go before Corey Pavin announces his four wild card picks, several players have one last chance to convince him that they're his men.

So who's going to get the nod?

Tiger Woods is a certainty. Any captain only needs the tiniest excuse to pick the World Number 1, and despite his abysmal play at the WGC Bridgestone, Tiger has shown a bit of form in the last couple of weeks. It hasn't been brilliant, but there's been enough of a spark there to show that the main man is on his way back. His Ryder Cup record is far from stellar, but he's the best player in the history of the world - that alone starts him 1 up in most matches he plays.

There are those who believe that Tiger disrupts the balance of a team - few speak of Azinger's success at Valhalla without noting that Woods was absent - but that's not a case to leave him out. There are plenty of great players on the team this year, and having seen Tiger and Steve Stricker take 4/4 in the President's Cup last year don't be surprised to see them lining up together on the Friday morning.

Pavin has quite a bit of raw youth on the team - Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson are magnificent on their day, but can lose the plot, and Jeff Overton is still looking for that first win. For this reason I expect him to choose a bit of calm and experience - in other words, Zach Johnson and Stewart Cink.

Johnson has come back into form this year with a win in May, and his cool customer persona is just what the Americans need when on foreign soil. He manages his game very well - just look at that Masters win - and seldom misses a putt from inside 8 feet. A solid final round tonight couldn't do any harm, but his name's probably already on the ticket.

Stewart Cink is the last American player to taste major triumph in Britain, and while he's had a quiet year since then, some solid performances in the last month or so have put him in line for a pick. He's been a wild card before, and knows how to reward his captain's confidence. Again, he doesn't lose his calm easily, and he's a solid short game player.

The last pick is difficult. Anthony Kim? Corey Pavin would love to pick him - he, along with Boo Weekley, was the life and soul of that 2008 team, and you know he'll get pumped up away from home. He did nearly enough to qualify before taking time out to have thumb surgery, but has failed to impress in his few performances since then. It would take a leap of faith for Pavin to pick him - if he gets in, he knows he's been lucky.

Sean O'Hair - he put together a couple of decent finishes before missing the cut this week, and he'll be hoping that won't cost him. He is a rookie, however, and Pavin might feel he has enough new blood on the team already. Nick Watney is another who's failed to push through and get those big results - looks like he'll have to wait till next time. Justin Leonard has put in a few big weeks recently and will be hoping the Captain is watching Ryder Cup re-runs - if anyone knows how to win a Ryder Cup it's Leonard.

Monty definitely had the toughest decision of any European captain this year, but it's not going to be a stroll in the park for his US counterpart.

If I had to guess, I think he'll pick the first three and then Kim - he'll bank on the attitude picking up the young man's game.

I personally would take Leonard - at 50ish in the points list it'd be controversial, but the former British Open champion is as experienced as they come for Ryder Cup men - he'll do the job.

We'll know tomorrow.

Team America

So we've looked at who Monty's going to have carrying the flag for Europe in October. What's the opposition going to look like?

Once again, let's be self-indulgent and look at my team a year before the matches, last September:

Tiger Woods

Phil Mickelson

Steve Stricker

Stewart Cink

Lucas Glover

Anthony Kim

JB Holmes

Boo Weekley

Hunter Mahan

Nick Watney

Jim Furyk

Ben Curtis

The most notable absentee is probably Zach Johnson, and after getting his career back on track with a win last month he looks in good shape to make Corey Pavin's team. His strength is in his consistency, and he seems to have got it back. The man to lose out might well be Ben Curtis - he showed class in the Valhalla matches, but has done little since. The one reason to be wary of writing him off is that he has tended to up his game in the summer - watch out for him on the links, where he's tasted major success, as well as putting in a close finish in 2008.

Boo Weekley, the crowd hero of the 2008 matches has failed to fire at all since then, and is well down the rankings. You get the feeling that he might be a captain's pick for his team spirit alone, but, like Sergio in Europe, he's going to have to give Pavin a bit of form to justify the choice - there are too many quality players vying for spots just to give one away for free.

Stewart Cink is in the list mainly by virtue of his Open victory at Turnberry last year - with so many points still available he's going to have to up his game a little to hold his place.

So how about the guys fighting for a spot?

Matt Kuchar has been one of the most consistent players on Tour this year, despite not taking home any silverware yet. With 5 top 10s in 2010, he's ranked at 10 in the Ryder Cup points.

Ben Crane has won already this year, and I fancy him again both this week in Memphis and at Pebble Beach. He's a great ball-striker who's got it rolling on the greens recently as well. At no. 8 in the list, with his current form, he looks a strong favourite to make it to Wales.

Next up are Ricky and Rickie. Rickie Fowler, undoubtedly one of this blog's favourites, showed class last week both before and after Justin Rose took the title from him. He's had 5 top 10s this year - not bad for a rookie. You get the feeling that the win is only so far away, and he's knocking on the door for Pavin's team. Remember his Walker Cup record - 7/8. Everyone wants to see McIlroy-Fowler sooner or later. It might just happen this autumn.

As for Ricky Barnes - he's followed a good showing in the Masters with some steady play, a Saturday 62 last week lifting him to a T-3 finish. He came close at the US Open last year, so we know he likes the majors. Even if he doesn't qualify on merit, he'll be in Pavin's mind if he keeps up his form. He was US Amateur Champion back in the day, so you know he likes his matchplay.

Finally, Dustin Johnson. A winner at Pebble Beach earlier this year where he defended his title, he'll be looking forward to the US Open returning there. He hasn't done much since then, but he sits at 7 in the Ryder Cup list, so a good summer will guarantee him a spot. He's the kind of guy you want playing fourball for you - smashes the driver as far as Alvaro Quiros and has a surprisingly deft touch around that green.

There are others in the mix - Sean O'Hair, Bo Van Pelt, Jeff Overton, Bill Haas, who all have work to do to push on in, whilst Nick Watney and JB Holmes need good summers to hang on to the places I gave them last year.

As for Tiger Woods, let's have no more of this nonsense.

He'll be there.

It's What You Do, Ain't The Way That You Do It

A W's a W.

In 10 years time, that's all you'll see on the scoresheet. There'll be the obsessive golf fans and bloggers who'll be able to take you through the last four hours play, but the win's what counts.

Dustin Johnson will never win another tournament with such a poor last round, but that shouldn't worry him. When the going got tough, he got going. Just about.

There've been some topsy-turvy final rounds on Tour in the last few years - who could forget Rory McIlroy's near-collapse in Dubai last year before getting up and down from a bunker to win? Sound familiar? Dustin Johnson had three bogeys, a double bogey, and an eagle at Pebble Beach before that closing birdie, and you can bet he didn't feel comfortable once.

It looked to be a two-horse race at the day's beginning, with Johnson and Paul Goydos 4 shots ahead of a pack led by J.B. Holmes. The younger, big-hitting horse stumbled at the first, and when he failed to par the par-5 2nd, it looked like he was going to have a few nerves to contend with.

Goydos had a shaky start too, and at the turn Johnson was a shot behind, having cancelled out his eagle with a three-putt from nowhere at the 9th. Holmes started fast, but the engines cooled and he was struggling to put pressure on the frontrunners. Leave it to David Duval - without a win in nearly nine years, Duval rolled back the clock to give himself a shout at the title - a costly 6 on the par-5 14th meant that he would just miss out in the end.

The turning point for Johnson came on the 15th, one hole after Goydos had ruled himself out with a disastrous 9, following young Bryce Molder, who suffered a similar fate in the group ahead, down the leaderboard. Johnson played a poor chip from behind the green, leaving himself 6 feet for par. He rolled it in, and for the first time all day looked to have some composure. A bogey on the 17th piled the pressure back on his shoulders for the daunting final hole, but when J.B. failed to pick up a shot a birdie would be enough. A massive drive and an iron into the front bunker left Johnson a straightforward up-and-down, which he duly converted to defend his title.

He won it ugly, but it's another win, making him the first player since Tiger Woods to win in each of his first three seasons on Tour. Is he the real deal? All we saw yesterday was that he's not immune to pressure. Then again, who is? When it came to it he made a big putt on 15, and then played the home hole with guts. Let people criticise his smashing of the driver in a final round - he hit plenty of fairways - if you have a strength, play to it.

That's the sort of win that makes you that bit stronger when you're in that position again. And he will be in that position again. Following his bronze finish the week before, Johnson's risen to World Number 25, and will have one eye firmly on Corey Pavin's Ryder Cup team, vice-captained by? You got it - Paul Goydos.

The PGA Tour's delivered some smashing finishes in the last month, and we're heading into one of the best weeks of the year. 64 players head to Tucson for the World Matchplay, also known as Geoff Ogilvy's personal playground. Johnson against Camilo Villegas is just one of several mouth-watering 1st round matches, and don't be surprised if Johnson gets off to a flyer. His swashbuckling game might well suit the one-on-one format - with birdies and eagles galore the odd bogey can be alright.

Tune in tomorrow for a preview of the Matchplay, and a few tips for who might triumph in the desert.