To Pick Or Not To Pick?

Although never viewed with the same awe as the Ryder Cup, for those who play the President's Cup it is a highlight of the year. It allows international players the chance to experience something of that team golf feel that the Ryder Cup split denies them. One of the great shames in golf is that legends such as Gary Player, Peter Thomson, Bobby Locke, Ernie Els and Vijay Singh never played a Ryder Cup, and for the new generation - Jason Day, Adam Scott, Charl Schwartzel - the same applies. Two greats will face off as captains this year, with Fred Couples and Greg Norman taking the reigns.

The big story of the match so far is Fred Couples' selection of Tiger Woods as one of his two wildcards picks, which he both decided and announced publicly several weeks in advance of the due date. Both the pick and its manner drew much criticism, not only from the media, but also from Couples' own team, with senior man Phil Mickelson protesting on behalf of 2011 U.S. PGA winner Keegan Bradley, who can count himself unlucky to miss out on a seat on the plane to Australia.

Bill Haas took Couples' second pick, and after a playoff FedEx win which involved two incredible par saves before taking it at the 3rd hole, it's tough to say he doesn't deserve it.

What about Tiger? Can Couples justify picking a man in such poor form, who hasn't been playing much golf? The arguments against are obvious. Since that famous car crash in 2009, shortly after the last edition of the President's Cup, he has shown little form at all, his best finishes coming through a couple of hard-fought major top-10s. Respect amongst his peers is not what it was, and he has certainly lost the aura that he had when winning 14 majors. As players like Day, Schwartzel and Graeme McDowell have shown, youngsters today are no longer afraid to take him on down the stretch.

So why do Fred Couples and I think he should be on the team?

He is the greatest player of the generation, and arguably the greatest player of all time. No one has exerted the dominance over quality opposition in the same way as Woods. While that dominance may be at an end, he showed flashes of brilliance over the last year that tells us that he is not yet done. Matchplay is the perfect format for Tiger at the moment - he can afford a couple of errors as long as he can come back strongly, and no one has a mental approach like him.

He took the maximum 5/5 points from his last President's Cup appearance, when he played the four team games with Steve Stricker, and there is no doubt that the U.S. have finally found the perfect partner. Corey Pavin kept the partnership together at Celtic Manor last year, and was rewarded with Tiger returning 3 points from 4.

That Ryder Cup appearance came after the revelations, after his slump in form, after that disastrous performance at Firestone; the lowest point of his playing career. In the team scenario, he was able to pull himself together and build a telling partnership with Stricker, before taking out Miguel Angel Jimenez in the singles. Couples is banking on a similar performance in Melbourne - it is a strange reversal of the days where those said that Tiger couldn't play good team golf, that singles was where he belonged - a good dose of team golf might be just what he needs.

We all know that Tiger is not what he once was. We all know that an era is over. We disagree on his future - I remain convinced that he has another green jacket with his name on it, and maybe some of the other top prizes as well. The imminent drop out of the top-50 in the world should not be seen as too diabolical an omen - he will be back. To what degree, not even he knows. But he will be back, and this vote of confidence from Fred Couples might be just the fillip to get him going again.

One more reason to pick him? Who can wait now for the President's Cup?

Last Chance

So often termed the forgotten major, the U.S. PGA Championship has nonetheless provided a host of unforgettable stories since its inception. In recent years, Padraig Harrington rolled in a 15-footer on the 18^th to dramatically take his 3^rd major out of six, the year after saw Y.E. Yang become the first player to take the lead off Tiger in the final round, and be the first Asian major winner to boot, while last year won’t be a tournament that Dustin Johnson forgets too quickly.

This year looks set to be as interesting a major as we’ve seen in recent times – the World Numbers 1 and 2 are still trying to find that first win, while Tiger Woods continues his comeback after a solid first week back. Steve Williams had an even better first week back, but is regretting not keeping his mouth shut about it. International players are sweeping the major board these days, and the pressure on the younger pretenders in the U.S. is growing ever more – are Rickie Fowler, Nick Watney, Hunter Mahan, Bubba, DJ et al ready to take the plunge?

The PGA returns to Atlanta Athletic Club this year, 10 years after David Toms became one of the more underrated major winners. His victory was chock-full of memories as well – he achieved the longest major ace when he holed a 5-wood from 250 yards on the 15^th hole, and had enough confidence in his short game to lay up at the final hole, hit a wedge to 10 feet, and sink the putt to take the title by a shot from Phil Mickelson.

The golf course has changed somewhat for this edition – 250 yards has been added to the course, making it 7,463 – pretty long for a par 70. The rough has been grown to be as severe as a U.S. Open course. Hitting fairways is at an absolute premium – with three par 4s measuring over 475 yards, you aren’t going to be able to hit all the greens from a wayward drive. The rough around the greens will be punishing as well, so scrambling will be vital. You’re not going to hit every green, so you’d better be able to chip and make some clutch putts. Those greens have been changed from bentgrass to Bermuda since 2001, and will be rolling at 12 or more on the stimpmeter.

So what attributes do you need? Based on the above, it’s first and foremost a ball-striker’s venue. You won’t win if you’re only hitting 50% of fairways. Ideally you want to hit it long as well as straight – having 220 in to some of these greens isn’t going to be easy. As with any major, you need a whole lot of patience and plenty of guts – there’ll be pars you have to make, and bogeys you have to forget. Forget technique for a second – you’ll have to be fit. It’s going to be hot all week, with not much wind. Lee Westwood’s shed 9 pounds in the last month, and that’s going to be valuable. You don’t want to be carrying any excess baggage in conditions where temperatures will go past 90 degrees.

Who will win? I mentioned Lee Westwood in the last paragraph, and even though I think he’s a bit of a choker, this might be the week he does it. He hits the ball as well as anyone, and his putting (his main weakness) looked a lot better at Akron last week. If he can keep himself to 30 putts a round, he should walk this tournament. He seems more relaxed in the press tent since he’s gone to Dr. Bob, and hopefully he’s not letting that “best player never to win a major” tag put him off too much. I never back Westwood in majors, and I very seldom back anyone at a low price, but I’m on Westwood this week at 15/1, so read into that what you will.

Sticking with my betting, I’ve also backed Luke Donald at 14/1, another low-priced favourite. There are plenty of similarities between Donald and David Toms, last winner at this venue – both have exceptional short games to compensate for a shorter long game. Donald comes in to this PGA as the most underrated World Number 1 in history, although he too faces pressure to pick up a major. Unlike Westwood, however, Donald hasn’t really choked at the big moment – he simply hasn’t had enough time to win yet – his game has only hit this new level in the last 18 months, and he will win one in the next couple of years. If he hits the fairways, he stands a great chance – even though he’ll be leaving himself more into the green than other players, his scrambling is second to none.

The only two players who can match Westwood for ball-striking are two more players whose putting is an issue – U.S. Open champion Rory McIlroy and long-time major struggler Sergio Garcia. McIlroy played some really solid golf last week in Akron, and if he putts like he did at the U.S. Open he’ll definitely be in contention on Sunday afternoon. He says he plays better in the States – this is as States as golf is going to get.

Sergio, meanwhile, has played the best golf for several years in the last few months, and the course should suit him if he can keep it in play off the tee. As usual, he’ll need to hole some putts, but the way he hits his irons, like Westwood, 30 a day would probably coast him to the title. At 60/1, get on that.

What about the Americans? While Tiger played well last week, he’s not yet hitting the driver straight enough to contend at a course this penal. I love having him back in the game, and he’s not too far off winning again, but it’s unlikely to come this week.

Dustin Johnson has unfinished business with the PGA, and as he showed at the British Open, he still likes the big stage. A four-iron out of bounds on the back 9 put paid to that, but anyone who hits the ball as far as he does has a great chance this week.

Rickie Fowler is another man for the big occasion – he finally shot a good 4^th round last week, only to be left in Adam Scott’s wake. After a very mature performance at the British Open though, it’s more good signs for Fowler. I wonder if the PGA is too big an occasion to pick up his first Tour win, but you never know – he’s full of confidence and is sure to be a fan favourite.

Steve Stricker is as steady as the come, and a great putter to boot – he hasn’t missed a top-20 in his last 10 starts, and deserves a major on his résumé – he should contend this week. Mickelson finished 2^nd here in 2001, but as usual, there’s no point in predicting what he’ll do. Nick Watney is another young American who will win majors – he blew it last year with a final round 81, but he’s had a couple of big wins since then. Finally – Zach Johnson – loves winning in Georgia, and putts as well as anyone from 10 feet.

Of course the Aussies are back in form – Jason Day is the most exciting player on Tour at the moment, with the least fear of anyone. He’s very close to a major title, and is sure to contend this week. Adam Scott pulled off the biggest win of his career last week, and even though I’m not a fan of those contraptions, the long putter sure is doing the business. If he plays like he did last week he’s almost unbeatable.

With no Ryder Cup this year, the PGA is our last dose of superstar top-quality golf for a while (that’s right FedEx Cup, I don’t really care). With so many players in the frame (I haven’t even mentioned the defending champion), and a few surprises ready to emerge, it should be a fantastic major. Enjoy.

Who's Got It?

Yesterday’s stat-attack (see below) threw up a few familiar names in the run-up to the U.S. Open – steady players like Luke Donald, Steve Stricker, and Matt Kuchar all featured strongly, while former major winners Geoff Ogilvy, Zach Johnson, and Retief Goosen had respectable showings as well. Stats aside though, who fits the mould to win at Congressional and who just isn’t ready yet?

What do you need to win? Fairways and greens, really solid putting, good scrambling, and, above all, a seriously cool head.

I’m going to start with my number one pick this week – Steve Stricker. Certainly one of the best players never to have won a major, the veteran American only hit his real form after turning 40, and is showing no signs of slowing down any time soon. He’s registered a few top-10s in the U.S. Open before, but it’s only in the last few years that he’s looked the real deal. A relatively slow start to the season was put to bed with a win at Jack Nicklaus’s Memorial Tournament two weeks ago, a course which it was claimed would not set up well for Stricker.

So does he fit the U.S. Open? He’s one of the steadiest players on Tour – you won’t find anyone with a cooler head than Stricker. Not easily rattled, he understands the value of par golf on tough courses, which many younger and more inexperienced players might not. He hits it straight, and is one of the best putters of his generation. He makes a lot from inside 10 feet, which will be key in any major championship, but particularly the U.S. Open. I can’t really come up with a negative for Stricker – ok, he’s not the longest hitter, but that’s not a big deal for someone who keeps it straight.

Run to your fantasy teams and bookies – Steve Stricker’s the man.

Just a quick note on my outside bet for the week – keep an eye on Jonathan Byrd. He’s played extremely well in the last year, including a win and a playoff loss to Lucas Glover. I think Congressional might just suit him down to the ground.

What more can you say about Luke Donald? He is the best player in the world at the moment, and much of the accolades I gave to Stricker can be repeated here. He hits it straight, has the coolest head in the game (as was evidence by his 3^rd round at Wentworth last month) and is happy being the World Number One. Did I mention the razor-sharp short game? I think he’s the best short-game player currently active. You just don’t see him missing. The only downside is a poor record in U.S. Opens, but don’t put much faith in that – he’s come on so far in only the last 14 months that you can’t look at his career stats as being representative. With 14 top-10s in his last 15 starts worldwide, including a win either side of the Atlantic, I expect him to contend again. 14/1 with the bookies is a little short for anyone in a tournament this tough, so maybe leave the money in your pocket and just enjoy watching him.

If Phil Mickelson wins the U.S. Open this weekend, on Father’s Day, I think America might explode. There is so much goodwill riding with Phil this week that he might be penalized for having 15 clubs in the bag. With 5 runner-up finishes in this major (he also came T$ last year), there’s nothing he wants more in golf. Does all this pressure weigh him down? To be honest, I think he puts just as much on himself anytime he plays a big event, so he should be used to it. Yes, if he’s in contention coming down the stretch his mind might go back to Winged Foot, or Pinehurst, but he’s one of the greatest players in the world.

Always a streaky player, what’s been most frustrating for Mickelson this season must be that when he’s finally got his driver under control, his putting’s gone AWOL again. You can’t miss the putts he’s been missing and win a U.S. Open, and he knows it. He putted well in his final round at Memorial (24 putts), but he needs to carry that into this week. He’s the best wedge player in the world, and he’s going to need that this week.

If Mickelson putts well from 4-10 feet, he’ll win this week.

Lee Westwood – I’m sorry, Lee. I just don’t believe. I wish I did. But I don’t. You cannot putt and chip like Lee Westwood and win majors. If you say, “But look – he’s got 5 top-3 finishes in majors since 2008”? That just shows how good a ball-striker he is. Tee-to-green, Westwood is only challenged by Rory McIlroy, in my opinion. He’s the best driver of a ball currently playing. To be fair, he placed 10^th in putting last week at the FedEx St. Jude. If he can replicate that stat this week, he probably will win. But I fear that my visions of him having the horrors on the USGA’s slick greens might come to pass.

He will win a major title eventually. He’s too good not to. The week will come where the short game stands up to examination and he’ll take home the prize. But this week? Look for him to reel off another top-15, maybe even top-5. But win it? No.

What of the defending champion? U.S. Opens are not traditionally friendly to defending champions, with only Tiger and Goosen cracking the top 50 in the last ten years. This year, Graeme McDowell touches down in Maryland with the trophy in his bag, and you can tell from the look in his eyes and the set of his jaw that he doesn’t want to give it back.

He’s won before – he can clearly handle the U.S. Open set up. He’s a fantastic pressure putter – he holes pretty much everything he has to when the chips are down. His maiden major last year was one of 4 wins worldwide, including taking down Tiger in his own tournament, where he made 15-footers for birdie on the 72^nd and first playoff hole.

2011 has started slowly for G-Mac, however – he looked to have found his form at Sawgrass before a final round collapse marked his exit. He played good golf in Europe two weeks ago, if you disregard a 3^rd round 81. And I do, in a way. He’s a had a couple of tournaments now where he’s played very well but hasn’t put four rounds together – I think this could be the week.

Few players have more bottle, more determination, more fire in the belly than the Northern Irishman. He loved beating Tiger last November, he loved beating America in the Ryder Cup – a challenge is what he lives for.

Technically speaking, his game fits the U.S. Open to a T – Solid driving, beautiful ironplay, and good gutsy putting. I fancy G-Mac to have a serious run at this title – Curtis Strange in 1989 is the only player to defend it since Ben Hogan in 1951, but these records have to be broken eventually. G-Mac would like that stat.

A few other names to look at in brief – KJ Choi doesn’t have a good U.S. Open record, but his win at the Players could kickstart his career on to bigger and better things. He’s as steady and phlegmatic as they come – expect him to do well this week. Retief Goosen and Geoff Ogilvy cropped up in those stats a couple of times – you can’t write off former winners, but both of them seem to be off the boil, although the Goose did have a good tournament last week in Memphis. Lucas Glover is another former champion who’s shown some good form.

Matt Kuchar continues to be one of the steadiest players on Tour – we’ve yet to see if he has the nerve to win a major title, but it wouldn’t surprise me – he’s got all the requirements.

Young guns? I still don’t think McIlroy has the short game to win, but hopefully he’ll play well, notch up another top-10, and then head back to Europe and win a couple of ordinary events.

Nick Watney and Hunter Mahan have both played well this year – I doubt they’ll win this week, but they’re two of America’s brightest hopes at the moment and both have major titles in them.

Speaking of bright hopes – Jason Day’s incredible Sunday run at the Masters showed that he has the talent and the bottle to go far in the game, but very few win a U.S. Open on their first attempt – not this year I’m afraid.

Finally, Bubba and Dustin – two bombers, both with good major performances last year, whose unexpectedly good short games give them a great opportunity even on a course where a premium is on hitting fairways. DJ will want to show he’s over Pebble Beach last year, and Bubba’s already shown he has the bottle to win this year when he held off a charging Phil Mickelson.

Who knows? I can’t wait.

Hugh’s tips:

Steve Stricker

Luke Donald

Phil Mickelson

Matt Kuchar

KJ Choi

Graeme McDowell

Jonathan Byrd

Bubba Watson

Lucas Glover

(Tip the whole field and you'll probably win)

Crunching the Numbers

Historically the toughest test of all golf championships, the U.S. Open is the one week left where the U.S.G.A. can inflict pain on the top professionals in the world. Characterized by tight fairways, high rough, fast greens and consequentially high scoring averages, the U.S. Open can only be won by a golfer who keeps his game and head in check throughout four days of gruelling competition. Last year saw Graeme McDowell become the first European in 40 years to lift the trophy, after he withstood challenges from Gregory Havret, Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods and Ernie Els. Dustin Johnson played three great rounds but to no avail, imploding on the front nine on Sunday to leave licking his wounds and imagining what might have been.

This year the tournament heads to Maryland, to Congressional Golf and Country Club. The U.S. Open was held there in 1997, when Ernie Els (-4) finished a shot ahead of Colin Montgomerie to land his second U.S. Open title. Give the 14-year gap, and the changes made to the course since then, we can’t glean too much information from the final leaderboard – aside from Els, Jim Furyk is the only current payer with a top-10 at Congressional’s last showing.

At a 7,500 yard par 71, Congressional looks to be fitting the mould for U.S. Open courses – the greens will be fast, and the rough at its shortest will be between 3 ¾ and 4 inches deep.

So who can triumph? I’ll be back later in the week with more detailed previews and tips, but right now, let’s look at what some of the key stats will be in a week where the focus has to be on damage limitation. Par is seldom a bad score in this tournament, and the 2011 edition looks like it won’t be any different.

Ball-Striking

You must find fairways and greens at the U.S. Open. The organizers will be sure to keep the greens slick and well surrounded by run-off areas, so making par after a wayward iron shot can be nigh on impossible. As for hitting the green from the rough, you’re going to need a bit of luck. In 2004, most players took on Shinnecock Hills with fairway woods off the tee – Vijay Singh took a different approach – he decided to whack the driver almost everywhere, but trust that he’d be able to muscle 8 and 9-irons from the rough if he missed the fairways. He went into the weekend leading the Greens In Regulation stats. Congressional is longer than Shinnecock, but the Vijay tactic should give hope to some of the bombers, who will hope to use their length to set up shorter approaches.

Take Bubba Watson – despite ranking 92 in driving accuracy on tour, he’s number 2 in distance (surely he’s not happy about that), and he manages to top the GIR stats on the PGA Tour. He’s number 2 behind Boo Weekley on the PGA Tour’s Ball-Striking stats (combination of Driving & GIR), and with a short game like his, he should be a serious contender this week. Also clocking in high up on the ball-striking list are Hunter Mahan (T4), Nick Watney (9^th), Sergio Garcia (T10), Dustin Johnson (14^th), Adam Scott (16^th), and Matt Kuchar in 18^th place. Justin Rose (23^rd) and Graeme McDowell (25^th) close out the top 25.

Two guys a little further down to note are Steve Stricker in 34^th place and Luke Donald who ties for 42^nd.

All of these guys would be on my shortlist to contend this week, so it’s encouraging to see that they’re doing the first part right. The stats only give us so much obviously, and guys a little further down the list can make up the difference with higher rankings around the greens, but these numbers do at least show us that big hitters like Bubba and Dustin can still come up with decent GIR numbers, although the punishment at Congressional might be more severe.

Scrambling

You must be able to save par. Birdies are all well and good, but at a U.S. Open the guy who walks off with the trophy will have made a hell of a lot of good pars. Whether from bunkers, thick greenside rough, run-off areas, or 100 yards back in the fairway after a chip-out from the rough, you must get up and down time and again. With Phil Mickelson’s wedgeplay, you have to wonder how he hasn’t won it yet – remember, though, he does have 5 runners-up finishes.

So who gets it up and down the most on tour?

Unsurprisingly, we have a few of the season’s early winners high up in the rankings – two-time champion Mark Wilson tops the chart, while Memorial champ Steve Stricker comes in in 3^rd. World Number One Luke Donald clocks in at 6^th, while former U.S. Open winner Geoff Ogilvy (7^th), Zach Johnson (8^th), KJ Choi (9^th) and Matt Kuchar (13^th) also have good numbers. Padraig Harrington and Mickelson come in at 16^th and 17^th respectively. Nick Watney (T23) and Retief Goosen (25^th) finish out the top 25.

These guys have 11 major championships between them, and bear in mind that Stricker and Donald don’t own any. Yet.

A lot of these names are high on the list of bogey avoidance (obviously) – Stricker, Kuchar and Donald make up 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd, with Nick Watney placing 11^th and Phil Mickelson T15 with Justin Rose. To his credit, Sergio Garcia places 21^st on this list, despite not being the greatest scrambler of all time.

Putting Inside 10ft

The last stat we’ll look at is percentage of putts made from within 10 feet. In any tournament, the guys who make all their 5, 6, 7-footers will be in contention, but nowhere more so than the U.S. Open. We’ve talked about the importance of making those pars when you need to – plenty of them will be around the 10-foot range – there’ll be some good 10-foot bogeys made too, you can be sure of that.

Geoff Ogilvy and Zach Johnson score well again, placing 2^nd and 4^th respectively. 2009 U.S. PGA Champion comes in at T6, while Brian Gay (T11), Ryan Moore (13^th) and Retief Goosen (14^th) have good showings. Those two guys I keep coming back to – Donald and Stricker? 17^th and 21^st. Harrington places T22 while Nick Watney closes out the top 25.

So there you have it. A few key numbers to consider when picking your tip for the U.S. Open. Obviously, the system is flawed – I’ve been using the PGA Tour stats (because, being American, they’re an awful lot better than those provided by the European Tour) and so players like Martin Kaymer, Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy and Miguel Angel Jimenez won’t appear.

For your guidedog, here are a few scrambling numbers from the European stats – Reitef Goosen takes 2^nd place, Sergio surprisingly makes it in at 6^th (although with fewer rounds), while Matteo Manassero and Martin Kaymer are in 8^th and 9^th place. Jimenez and Westwood are respectable as well, placing 13^th and 18^th.

McIlroy, Kaymer, McDowell, Poulter and Manassero all place in the top-20 in GIR.

What does it all mean? Who knows? But it’s no surprise that the names that seem to come up in all aspects are those of Luke Donald, Mr. Consistent Steve Stricker, and star of the future Nick Watney, as well as guys who’ve won the championship before.

Make of it what you will.

The Final Countdown - Europe's No. 1

It's all over bar the shouting in Europe, and there has been a lot of shouting.

Across the Atlantic, however, it's only just hotting up. With a little over 24 hours to go before Corey Pavin announces his four wild card picks, several players have one last chance to convince him that they're his men.

So who's going to get the nod?

Tiger Woods is a certainty. Any captain only needs the tiniest excuse to pick the World Number 1, and despite his abysmal play at the WGC Bridgestone, Tiger has shown a bit of form in the last couple of weeks. It hasn't been brilliant, but there's been enough of a spark there to show that the main man is on his way back. His Ryder Cup record is far from stellar, but he's the best player in the history of the world - that alone starts him 1 up in most matches he plays.

There are those who believe that Tiger disrupts the balance of a team - few speak of Azinger's success at Valhalla without noting that Woods was absent - but that's not a case to leave him out. There are plenty of great players on the team this year, and having seen Tiger and Steve Stricker take 4/4 in the President's Cup last year don't be surprised to see them lining up together on the Friday morning.

Pavin has quite a bit of raw youth on the team - Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson are magnificent on their day, but can lose the plot, and Jeff Overton is still looking for that first win. For this reason I expect him to choose a bit of calm and experience - in other words, Zach Johnson and Stewart Cink.

Johnson has come back into form this year with a win in May, and his cool customer persona is just what the Americans need when on foreign soil. He manages his game very well - just look at that Masters win - and seldom misses a putt from inside 8 feet. A solid final round tonight couldn't do any harm, but his name's probably already on the ticket.

Stewart Cink is the last American player to taste major triumph in Britain, and while he's had a quiet year since then, some solid performances in the last month or so have put him in line for a pick. He's been a wild card before, and knows how to reward his captain's confidence. Again, he doesn't lose his calm easily, and he's a solid short game player.

The last pick is difficult. Anthony Kim? Corey Pavin would love to pick him - he, along with Boo Weekley, was the life and soul of that 2008 team, and you know he'll get pumped up away from home. He did nearly enough to qualify before taking time out to have thumb surgery, but has failed to impress in his few performances since then. It would take a leap of faith for Pavin to pick him - if he gets in, he knows he's been lucky.

Sean O'Hair - he put together a couple of decent finishes before missing the cut this week, and he'll be hoping that won't cost him. He is a rookie, however, and Pavin might feel he has enough new blood on the team already. Nick Watney is another who's failed to push through and get those big results - looks like he'll have to wait till next time. Justin Leonard has put in a few big weeks recently and will be hoping the Captain is watching Ryder Cup re-runs - if anyone knows how to win a Ryder Cup it's Leonard.

Monty definitely had the toughest decision of any European captain this year, but it's not going to be a stroll in the park for his US counterpart.

If I had to guess, I think he'll pick the first three and then Kim - he'll bank on the attitude picking up the young man's game.

I personally would take Leonard - at 50ish in the points list it'd be controversial, but the former British Open champion is as experienced as they come for Ryder Cup men - he'll do the job.

We'll know tomorrow.

Calm During the Storm

Having decided that Padraig Harrington's going to win the PGA Championship, it's time to have a look at the non-Irish players best placed to battle him for the Wanamaker Trophy.

Whistling Straits is long and punishing. No player is going to escape trouble this week, and the importance of a scrambling short game cannot be overstated. With 950+ bunkers, the odds are you're going to hit a few of them. By my reckoning, that must mean at least four holes are just bunker.

Not only will a razor-sharp short game be necessary, but whoever lifts that trophy is going to have to have an ice-cold nerve. When all around are losing theirs, he's going to be keeping his head. It's going to be the man who makes the tough pars that'll win this week.

No surprise that I've gone for Harrington then. Anyone who can get up and down from 70 yards to win his first major after playing the worst hole of his career has the bottle required.

So who else is able to play that calm game, and not get rattled by early errors?

Home boy Steve Stricker is definitely in that category - at 43, he's been around the block, and the major's all that's missing from his resumé. Even with a chance to go World Number 1 this week, don't expect him to get the shakes. He's also one of the best putters in the world today, and on a course where holing the 6-footers is going to be crucial he'll be in the mix.

Retief Goosen is a man who's won two majors in trying circumstances with equanimity. His putting isn't of quite the same quality as when he won in Shinnecock in 2004, but his game's picked up in the last two seasons, and he's definitely got something left in the tank. After an appalling 7 to start his 3rd round last week at Firestone, he held it together before shooting a brilliant final 65 to finish 3rd. His long game is straightforward and, in a year where Ernie Els has returned to winning at the highest level, his compatriot won't want to let the Big Easy take all the credit.

Earlier in the year, commentators were questioning whether Luke Donald had what it takes to finish off a tournament. He silenced his critics with a win in Spain, and has continued what's been an excellent season. He's got one of the tidiest swings you'll ever see, and he leads the PGA Tour in sand saves in 2010. If there was ever a man for plodding around the course and getting the job done it's Donald - when all the focus is on his fellow Englishmen Paul Casey and Justin Rose, the pressure's off Donald. The only concern I'd have is that he doesn't hit the ball all that far - but Paul McGinley managed a 6th place finish here in 2004, showing that if you're converting around the greens, you don't have to bomb it.

As for the other big guns, who knows?

Only Tiger knows where his head's at right now, and he could surprise us. I really don't think that Whistling Straits is the place to try and find your game, however, and he's going to be faced with a lot of par putts this week from 5-10 feet. Throughout the season his putting has looked average at best, and I think he's going to have to get a pick from Captain Corey if he's to make the Ryder Cup team.

Phil Mickelson revealed that he's suffering from a form of arthritis, which might contribute to his uncertain swinging in the last few events he's played. Either way, that final round at Firestone must have rattled him, and I don't see him doing the job this week. Maybe the chance to take top spot preyed on his mind, maybe not. If he gets in position he's got the experience to finish it off, but he will be punished if he's as wayward off the tee.

Hunter Mahan was supreme last weekend at Firestone, and he's a confidence player - I'd expect him to challenge. Sean O'Hair is another guy who's been fantastic for the past month or so. Aside from that, I'm going to continue to tip my players of the year, Bo Van Pelt and Matt Kuchar - I think both will feature at Celtic Manor, but a strong finish here would cement their place in Pavin's team.

I first saw Whistling Straits when it hosted the PGA in 2004. It's a unique course, transporting you from Wisconsin back to Ireland and Scotland. Whether it's the nostalgic feeling of watching the pros hacking out of dunes, or the wriggle you give on hearing that the 17th is named "Pinched Nerve", it's a fantastic venue for spectators.

It sounds like a cliché, but I have never seen a major championship that's so open. Any number of players could be in contention on Sunday, but whoever wants to win it is going to have to show some serious nerves.

More Than A Match For Anyone

"Don't get me wrong, I really respect every professional golfer, but I know I haven't played to my full potential and when that happens, it will be just me and Tiger."

When Ian Poulter came out with this statement in January 2008, irritated heads were shaken and indulgent smiles were smiled. It was just another wild comment from a player who had yet to show the game to back up the cockiness.

After this week's performance in the deserts of Arizona, all people are wondering is whether Tiger will be back to face him.

The top 6 in the World makes interesting reading: three Americans - Woods, Stricker, Mickelson, followed by three Englishmen - Westwood, Poulter, Casey.

Stricker, Mickelson, and Westwood are all fantastic players - don't be surprised if they pick up a couple of majors between them in the next two years, but there's something different about Poulter. He's got that fire behind his eyes, that frightening stare when he's in the zone, and that strut. He's got more self-belief than anyone on Tour, and now, he's shown the world he's got the game to match.

When asked for a turning point in Ian Poulter's career, I can pinpoint it to the minute - Sunday afternoon in Royal Birkdale, final round of the 2008 Open Championship. Poulter was playing ahead of Padraig Harrington, who would go on to win. He faced a 12-foot putt on the final green, which he had to make to stay just two shots back, and give himself any chance of staying in contention. He made the putt.

We all know what happened then - Harrington played the shot of his life on the 17th - a 5-wood to three feet to set up an eagle to allow him a canter down the home hole.

But look at it from Poulter's point of view - that putt on 18 was for him, a putt for a major championship. He piled the pressure on himself, and came up trumps. When the chips were down, he faced the music. I don't know how many more clichés I need to explain it any more clearly.

That putt told us, and more importantly him, that he had what it took. Nick Faldo put his trust in him at the Ryder Cup later that year, and he delivered. Europe lost that week, but the one image I always have is of Graeme McDowell ("G-Mac") and Poults high-fiving after beating im Furyk and Kenny Perry 1 up in the Saturday fourballs. It was terrifying. I have never seen two more pumped golfers in the one moment. It looked like they'd need a ten-mile run to calm down.

It took Poulter until November 2009 to register his next win, but he's clearly on a new road. He came so close to winning in Abu Dhabi this year only to come up a shot shy, but his performance at Tucson was magnificent. He had some tough matches - he was nip-and-tuck with Justin Leonard in the first round before prevailing on the the 19th, and he never led Thongchai Jaidee until the 17th.

In the semi-final and final, he was in a class of his own. He drove the ball superbly, hardly bothering to look where it went. His ironplay was devastating, and he's never putted like that before. He holed over 90% from 10 feet and in this week - I can only remember him missing one in the last two matches, and even that just lipped out of the cup. It was fitting that his final stroke of the week was a 10-foot putt on the 34th hole - he brushed it straight in the middle once again.

Ian Poulter has hit the afterburners, and he's not going to slow down anytime soon. The WGC titles are second only to the majors, but he won't want to be second only to anything. He's got his sights firmly set on Augusta, and don't be surprised to see him in the hunt there as well.

It would be unfair not to mention Paul Casey - he played some fantastic golf this week, and was part of one of the most amazing matches the Accenture has ever seen, when it took him 24 holes to dispatch Camilo Villegas to the consolation match. He showed his mettle on those extra holes, rolling in a couple of important 5-footers to stay in the match. In the final, he looked to get off to a flyer, stitching his second at the 2nd for a kick-in eagle, but he never got the momentum back. Twice he pegged Poulter back from 4up to just 2, but he could get no further. The match was won on two holes, for me - the 12th, where Poulter shortsided himself on the par 3, and got up and down for par, and the 15th, where Poulter stitched a tricky chip shot to two inches, leaving himself a birdie. Even before Casey's own birdie attempt slid agonisingly by, you got the feeling it was game over.

English golf was the dominant force between about 1890 and 1920, deposing the Scots from the top. Since then the Americans have been in charge. With three Englishmen in the top 6, and just seven Americans in the top 20, it looks as if that sands might be shifting once again. It won't be English dominance, but it could well be European, with so many fine young players on the up and up. Certainly, the European challenge going into every major has never been so strong.

The Ryder Cup is later this year, and Colin Montgomerie's team will be out for revenge. Yesterday's finalists will be there, you can be sure of that, and I, for one, can't wait to see those eyes of Ian Poulter staring down a putt on the 18th in Celtic Manor.

A Flying Start

We were promised exciting matchplay golf. We got it.

The first day of the Accenture World Matchplay did not disappoint. There were close finishes, upsets, top seeds pushed to the limit, and some simply incredible golf.

Best to start with the casualties - Padraig Harrington is heading home with a last-64 cheque for $45,000 after losing 3&1 to Jeev Milkha Singh - the golf wasn't spectacular but it was a great match - Harrington was spraying the ball around and relying on his major-winning short game to stay in it. In the end, the workman-like swing of Singh was too much for the Irishman, and the Indian No. 1 will face Matt Kuchar in the next round.

Kuchar, as predicted here last night, was another giantkiller, taking down Anthony Kim. Again, Kim was off-form, but Kuchar played a solid game to win 3&2.

Defending champion Geoff Ogilvy had an easy start to his campaign, defeating Alex Noren 7&5. Ogilvy didn't play his best golf, but he'll be happy to get the ball rolling again on a course he loves.

Mike Weir produced the performance of the day - 9 birdies in the 12 holes he played blew away Alvaro Quiros by 8&6 - Paul Casey looked gobsmacked when he heard about his 2nd round opponent in interview, but after Casey's 5&4 win over Stephen Ames, that could be one of the highlights of tomorrow.

Luke Donald played some great matchplay golf to hold off Graeme McDowell 2&1 and set up a showdown wit Robert Allenby tomorrow - Donald looks back in good touch this year, and I fancy him to go far this week. Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer are both in his bracket, and both produced fantastic back nines to win their matches. McIlroy was 4 down through 6 holes, 2 down through 14, and won on the 18th. I don't care what the commentators say - that's the sort of match you want in the first round. An early finish might be a little easier, but if you don't get pushed in the early rounds you won't be ready when the going gets tough. Just look at Ogilvy last year - he hardly finished a match before the 18th all week. Forget what they say about the players needing a rest - they are all fit guys, and golf's their job. The guys who went to 18, 19, 20 holes today are my favourites to win tomorrow.

Two such were the Molinari brothers, who both lost out only just - Edoardo was 4 up on Stewart Cink with 9 to play, but the Open Champion holed everything on the back to sneak a win.

Another late finisher was Ian Poulter, who beat Justin Leonard on the 19th. Poults is a fiery matchplayer, and he's going to be tough to beat. With Harrington and top seed Steve Stricker out of the Bobby Jones bracket, Poulter's become a very strong contender for the semi-finals. Stricker looked pretty good against Ross McGowan, but the Englishman stuck with him all the way, took him to extra holes, and holed a beauty on the 19th for the win. He'll have a second round match against 18-year old Japanese sensation Ryo Ishikawa.

Match of the day tomorrow is arguably the clash of the South Africans - Ernie Els and Retief Goosen won their matches without too much difficulty, and the only shame is that one of them will be going home tomorrow night.

The bad news of the tournament is that Henrik Stenson, former champion and one of the pre-tournament favourites, had to withdraw after one hole against Ben Crane. The guys in his bracket will be relieved that the big-hitting Swede is no longer a threat, but it's a shame that he won't be playing a tournament that suits him so well.

There were good wins from Yang, Schwartzel, Jaidee, Clark and Karlsson among others today, and we look set for a great week. Check out the comments below for Round 2 predictions, and keep in touch with how it pans out here.

One On One

Certain weeks of the year are special. Augusta. Open Week. The Ryder Cup is perhaps at the top of the tree. But the Accenture World Matchplay isn't far behind.

Whether to play or to watch, matchplay is exciting. It's a totally different game - the player who churns out 4 70s every week can pack up early - you need to be able to turn on the gas to triumph this week. 64 one day mightn't be enough, a 73 tomorrow could win 3&2. Every shot your opponent hits changes your own game plan, no matter how many pros say they just play their own game.There'll be matches ending on the 12th green, and players still going on the 24th teebox.

So who's going to win? Some players suit the format - in the early 1900s US amateur Jerry Travers was practically unbeatable in matchplay but couldn't string 4 rounds together in strokeplay. Geoff Ogilvy is the latest Accenture king, with 2 victories and a runners-up spot in four appearances. With a win from his only tournament so far this season, and a third child for him and his wife, the easygoing Australian will be feeling good again. He faces Swede Alexander Noren in the first round, and you've got to think his pedigree will count against the rookie.

That being said, we'll have upsets in the first round, as always. Matt Kuchar could be a decent long odds bet against Ryder Cup hero Anthony Kim, and expect Padraig Harrington to have a tough ride against Jeev Milkha Singh. Francesco Molinari will be looking to continue his good form into a win against Zach Johnson, and Chris Wood will fancy his chances against Lee Westwood, who has had little success in the Matchplay for a player of his talent.

The Gary Player bracket looks to be particularly strong this year, with Ogilvy, Westwood, Henrik Stenson, and Ernie Els heading it up. Stenson is a former winner of this event, and at 30/1, Els is my pick for the championship. A quarter-final loss last year his best performance, the Big Easy nonetheless has a phenomenal matchplay record throughout his career, and with 3 top-12s from 3 this year so far, I think it's Ernie's time to shine. A win against Ryan Moore in his first round could set up a clash with Retief Goosen, another resurgent South African. Let's face it though - there won't be any easy matches all week.

Prime match-ups of the first round?

Robert Karlsson v. Rory Sabbatini

Ross Fisher v. Thongchai Jaidee

Padraig Harrington v. Jeev Milkha Singh

Ian Poulter v. Justin Leonard (Plenty of people expect the fiery Poulter to go far after his Ryder Cup success)

Luke Donald v. Graeme McDowell (Tough to call, but I reckon Donald's a good bet to reach the quarters)

Camilo Villegas v. Dustin Johnson (Johnson's coming off a win at Pebble Beach, and will fancy his chances against the Colombian making his first appearance of 2010)

Hunter Mahan v. Charl Schwartzel

Stewart Cink v. Edoardo Molinari (Cink has finished 2nd and 3rd here in the past, and after his Open win last year should put in another solid performance, while Molinari will be hoping to set up a clash with his brother in the quarter-finals.

Check out the comments below to see how I think the draw will pan out - at the moment my quarter-finals are:

Steve Stricker v. Ian Poulter

Ernie Els v. Geoff Ogilvy

Lucas Glover v. Luke Donald

Stewart Cink v. Paul Casey

Who knows just how wrong I could be - prediction is a fool's game this week, but who'd complain with those for our final 8?

Keep in touch here to stay up to date with the week as it progresses. Until then, enjoy the golf.