Major Player

Now let’s all calm down. Journalists, golfers, fans. Rory McIlroy has won one major. Yes, it was incredible. Yes, it was one of the finest exhibitions of golf I’ve ever seen. Yes, the manner in which he won bodes for many more to come. But it’s still only one major.

So let’s not talk of Jack Nicklaus’s record, of dominance a la Tiger Woods, of a Rory Slam…let’s not allow the future that many see for him cloud the magnificence of his achievement. Already fans are building themselves up for disappointment in the Open in July if McIlroy fails to contend. He’s a young man, he still has plenty of work to do on his game. Yes, there are many more tournament and several more majors to come, I don’t doubt it, but don’t get carried away. Let’s enjoy McIlroy’s burgeoning career as it grows, and not be ever-gazing at a distant target, so difficult to achieve.

Jack Nicklaus won 18 majors. He won them over 24 years, almost to the day. That alone is remarkable. No one else had that kind of sustained brilliance over their career. His win in the 1986 Masters, aged 46, closing as he did with a 65, remains one of the greatest performances in golfing history.

All his life, Tiger Woods was chasing that number. And he seriously believed he could do it. 14 majors on, it looks like his challenge may be fading. I believe that he will be back, that he will win at least one more major, maybe two or three. But five? Maybe after 14, five doesn’t seem a difficult prospect. But let’s put it into context. No player currently playing professional golf, aside from Tiger, has won five majors in their career. Mickelson has four, Harrington, Els and Vijay have three. They’re all in the autumn of their careers. Tiger needs more than they’ve won in their career to top Jack. And, realistically, he needs them in the next six or seven years.

What about McIlroy? Harrington, before the final round, lost the plot and said that Rory was the man to beat Jack’s record. Down-to-earth, sensible Padraig Harrington. So how many does he need? 18. 18 major championships. If he plays at the highest level until he’s 40, he needs one a year. Maybe he’ll still be competitive after 40, who knows? One a year for 18 years, dare I say it, just isn’t realistic. Yes, maybe he’ll have years where he wins two. Three? Only Tiger and Ben Hogan have won three professional majors in a year. Four? Get out of here. Not going to happen.

Even if McIlroy does have the talent, and the patience, and the discipline, and the desire to win all these (and he does, don’t get me wrong), just have a look around. Mickelson isn’t done yet. Nor are McDowell and Kaymer. Charl Schwartzel, always one of the brightest talents in the game, has kick-started his career at a new level with his Masters triumph. And then there are guys who haven’t won one yet – Lee Westwood, Luke Donald, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Nick Watney, Hunter Mahan, Matteo Manassero, Francesco Molinari, Bubba Watson, Paul Casey…the list goes on. There are so many exceptional players on tour now, that every major championship will have several serious contenders for the title.

If you take a look at the list of multiple major champions, 15 of the top 18 won the vast bulk of their majors before the early 80s (Tiger, Nick Faldo, and Seve are the exceptions). What does this tell us? Maybe not a lot. Then again, maybe it does. There are more high-quality players on tour now, who have the capability to win majors, than there were when Jack Nicklaus was around. That’s not to downplay his achievement – having Arnie, Player, Watson and Trevino around didn’t make it easy – 18 majors is incredible – but I don’t think it’s realistic these days. Look at when Byron Nelson and Sam Snead were cleaning up on the PGA Tour – seriously cleaning up – in 1945 I think only two or three other players won PGA Tour events. Nowadays, even if you’re missing Woods, Mickelson, Kaymer, McIlroy from a field – you can still have Bubba, DJ, Kuchar and Watney – all potential major champions.

Tiger Woods dominated the sport for about 10 years. He won over 25% of the tournaments he played. The average round of a player paired with Tiger on Sunday was a stroke or two above their usual Sunday average. He was a presence. I’m willing to say that no one will dominate the game in that way again, certainly not in my lifetime. Tiger showed a glimpse of his old self at Augusta this year, when he mounted a final round charge. But his opposition didn’t back off. Schwartzel and Day just looked him in the eye, and charged right alongside him. Players aren’t scared of him anymore.

I don’t think they’ll be scared of McIlroy either. He showed his humanity at the Masters – he is susceptible to pressure. McIlroy will be World Number One one day, but that position looks like it’s going to be a bit more fluid for the next while. He should win a heap of tournaments, and a few more majors. As to more than that, I don’t know. We’ll have to wait and see.

Don’t build McIlroy up as the man to hit the magic number 19. Don’t turn every major victory into a mere statistic, a mere hurdle on the way to that goal. Recognize him for what he is – a very rare talent in our game, who will entertain us for many years to come. Don’t just look at the destination. Let’s enjoy the journey.

Who's Got It?

Yesterday’s stat-attack (see below) threw up a few familiar names in the run-up to the U.S. Open – steady players like Luke Donald, Steve Stricker, and Matt Kuchar all featured strongly, while former major winners Geoff Ogilvy, Zach Johnson, and Retief Goosen had respectable showings as well. Stats aside though, who fits the mould to win at Congressional and who just isn’t ready yet?

What do you need to win? Fairways and greens, really solid putting, good scrambling, and, above all, a seriously cool head.

I’m going to start with my number one pick this week – Steve Stricker. Certainly one of the best players never to have won a major, the veteran American only hit his real form after turning 40, and is showing no signs of slowing down any time soon. He’s registered a few top-10s in the U.S. Open before, but it’s only in the last few years that he’s looked the real deal. A relatively slow start to the season was put to bed with a win at Jack Nicklaus’s Memorial Tournament two weeks ago, a course which it was claimed would not set up well for Stricker.

So does he fit the U.S. Open? He’s one of the steadiest players on Tour – you won’t find anyone with a cooler head than Stricker. Not easily rattled, he understands the value of par golf on tough courses, which many younger and more inexperienced players might not. He hits it straight, and is one of the best putters of his generation. He makes a lot from inside 10 feet, which will be key in any major championship, but particularly the U.S. Open. I can’t really come up with a negative for Stricker – ok, he’s not the longest hitter, but that’s not a big deal for someone who keeps it straight.

Run to your fantasy teams and bookies – Steve Stricker’s the man.

Just a quick note on my outside bet for the week – keep an eye on Jonathan Byrd. He’s played extremely well in the last year, including a win and a playoff loss to Lucas Glover. I think Congressional might just suit him down to the ground.

What more can you say about Luke Donald? He is the best player in the world at the moment, and much of the accolades I gave to Stricker can be repeated here. He hits it straight, has the coolest head in the game (as was evidence by his 3^rd round at Wentworth last month) and is happy being the World Number One. Did I mention the razor-sharp short game? I think he’s the best short-game player currently active. You just don’t see him missing. The only downside is a poor record in U.S. Opens, but don’t put much faith in that – he’s come on so far in only the last 14 months that you can’t look at his career stats as being representative. With 14 top-10s in his last 15 starts worldwide, including a win either side of the Atlantic, I expect him to contend again. 14/1 with the bookies is a little short for anyone in a tournament this tough, so maybe leave the money in your pocket and just enjoy watching him.

If Phil Mickelson wins the U.S. Open this weekend, on Father’s Day, I think America might explode. There is so much goodwill riding with Phil this week that he might be penalized for having 15 clubs in the bag. With 5 runner-up finishes in this major (he also came T$ last year), there’s nothing he wants more in golf. Does all this pressure weigh him down? To be honest, I think he puts just as much on himself anytime he plays a big event, so he should be used to it. Yes, if he’s in contention coming down the stretch his mind might go back to Winged Foot, or Pinehurst, but he’s one of the greatest players in the world.

Always a streaky player, what’s been most frustrating for Mickelson this season must be that when he’s finally got his driver under control, his putting’s gone AWOL again. You can’t miss the putts he’s been missing and win a U.S. Open, and he knows it. He putted well in his final round at Memorial (24 putts), but he needs to carry that into this week. He’s the best wedge player in the world, and he’s going to need that this week.

If Mickelson putts well from 4-10 feet, he’ll win this week.

Lee Westwood – I’m sorry, Lee. I just don’t believe. I wish I did. But I don’t. You cannot putt and chip like Lee Westwood and win majors. If you say, “But look – he’s got 5 top-3 finishes in majors since 2008”? That just shows how good a ball-striker he is. Tee-to-green, Westwood is only challenged by Rory McIlroy, in my opinion. He’s the best driver of a ball currently playing. To be fair, he placed 10^th in putting last week at the FedEx St. Jude. If he can replicate that stat this week, he probably will win. But I fear that my visions of him having the horrors on the USGA’s slick greens might come to pass.

He will win a major title eventually. He’s too good not to. The week will come where the short game stands up to examination and he’ll take home the prize. But this week? Look for him to reel off another top-15, maybe even top-5. But win it? No.

What of the defending champion? U.S. Opens are not traditionally friendly to defending champions, with only Tiger and Goosen cracking the top 50 in the last ten years. This year, Graeme McDowell touches down in Maryland with the trophy in his bag, and you can tell from the look in his eyes and the set of his jaw that he doesn’t want to give it back.

He’s won before – he can clearly handle the U.S. Open set up. He’s a fantastic pressure putter – he holes pretty much everything he has to when the chips are down. His maiden major last year was one of 4 wins worldwide, including taking down Tiger in his own tournament, where he made 15-footers for birdie on the 72^nd and first playoff hole.

2011 has started slowly for G-Mac, however – he looked to have found his form at Sawgrass before a final round collapse marked his exit. He played good golf in Europe two weeks ago, if you disregard a 3^rd round 81. And I do, in a way. He’s a had a couple of tournaments now where he’s played very well but hasn’t put four rounds together – I think this could be the week.

Few players have more bottle, more determination, more fire in the belly than the Northern Irishman. He loved beating Tiger last November, he loved beating America in the Ryder Cup – a challenge is what he lives for.

Technically speaking, his game fits the U.S. Open to a T – Solid driving, beautiful ironplay, and good gutsy putting. I fancy G-Mac to have a serious run at this title – Curtis Strange in 1989 is the only player to defend it since Ben Hogan in 1951, but these records have to be broken eventually. G-Mac would like that stat.

A few other names to look at in brief – KJ Choi doesn’t have a good U.S. Open record, but his win at the Players could kickstart his career on to bigger and better things. He’s as steady and phlegmatic as they come – expect him to do well this week. Retief Goosen and Geoff Ogilvy cropped up in those stats a couple of times – you can’t write off former winners, but both of them seem to be off the boil, although the Goose did have a good tournament last week in Memphis. Lucas Glover is another former champion who’s shown some good form.

Matt Kuchar continues to be one of the steadiest players on Tour – we’ve yet to see if he has the nerve to win a major title, but it wouldn’t surprise me – he’s got all the requirements.

Young guns? I still don’t think McIlroy has the short game to win, but hopefully he’ll play well, notch up another top-10, and then head back to Europe and win a couple of ordinary events.

Nick Watney and Hunter Mahan have both played well this year – I doubt they’ll win this week, but they’re two of America’s brightest hopes at the moment and both have major titles in them.

Speaking of bright hopes – Jason Day’s incredible Sunday run at the Masters showed that he has the talent and the bottle to go far in the game, but very few win a U.S. Open on their first attempt – not this year I’m afraid.

Finally, Bubba and Dustin – two bombers, both with good major performances last year, whose unexpectedly good short games give them a great opportunity even on a course where a premium is on hitting fairways. DJ will want to show he’s over Pebble Beach last year, and Bubba’s already shown he has the bottle to win this year when he held off a charging Phil Mickelson.

Who knows? I can’t wait.

Hugh’s tips:

Steve Stricker

Luke Donald

Phil Mickelson

Matt Kuchar

KJ Choi

Graeme McDowell

Jonathan Byrd

Bubba Watson

Lucas Glover

(Tip the whole field and you'll probably win)

Crunching the Numbers

Historically the toughest test of all golf championships, the U.S. Open is the one week left where the U.S.G.A. can inflict pain on the top professionals in the world. Characterized by tight fairways, high rough, fast greens and consequentially high scoring averages, the U.S. Open can only be won by a golfer who keeps his game and head in check throughout four days of gruelling competition. Last year saw Graeme McDowell become the first European in 40 years to lift the trophy, after he withstood challenges from Gregory Havret, Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods and Ernie Els. Dustin Johnson played three great rounds but to no avail, imploding on the front nine on Sunday to leave licking his wounds and imagining what might have been.

This year the tournament heads to Maryland, to Congressional Golf and Country Club. The U.S. Open was held there in 1997, when Ernie Els (-4) finished a shot ahead of Colin Montgomerie to land his second U.S. Open title. Give the 14-year gap, and the changes made to the course since then, we can’t glean too much information from the final leaderboard – aside from Els, Jim Furyk is the only current payer with a top-10 at Congressional’s last showing.

At a 7,500 yard par 71, Congressional looks to be fitting the mould for U.S. Open courses – the greens will be fast, and the rough at its shortest will be between 3 ¾ and 4 inches deep.

So who can triumph? I’ll be back later in the week with more detailed previews and tips, but right now, let’s look at what some of the key stats will be in a week where the focus has to be on damage limitation. Par is seldom a bad score in this tournament, and the 2011 edition looks like it won’t be any different.

Ball-Striking

You must find fairways and greens at the U.S. Open. The organizers will be sure to keep the greens slick and well surrounded by run-off areas, so making par after a wayward iron shot can be nigh on impossible. As for hitting the green from the rough, you’re going to need a bit of luck. In 2004, most players took on Shinnecock Hills with fairway woods off the tee – Vijay Singh took a different approach – he decided to whack the driver almost everywhere, but trust that he’d be able to muscle 8 and 9-irons from the rough if he missed the fairways. He went into the weekend leading the Greens In Regulation stats. Congressional is longer than Shinnecock, but the Vijay tactic should give hope to some of the bombers, who will hope to use their length to set up shorter approaches.

Take Bubba Watson – despite ranking 92 in driving accuracy on tour, he’s number 2 in distance (surely he’s not happy about that), and he manages to top the GIR stats on the PGA Tour. He’s number 2 behind Boo Weekley on the PGA Tour’s Ball-Striking stats (combination of Driving & GIR), and with a short game like his, he should be a serious contender this week. Also clocking in high up on the ball-striking list are Hunter Mahan (T4), Nick Watney (9^th), Sergio Garcia (T10), Dustin Johnson (14^th), Adam Scott (16^th), and Matt Kuchar in 18^th place. Justin Rose (23^rd) and Graeme McDowell (25^th) close out the top 25.

Two guys a little further down to note are Steve Stricker in 34^th place and Luke Donald who ties for 42^nd.

All of these guys would be on my shortlist to contend this week, so it’s encouraging to see that they’re doing the first part right. The stats only give us so much obviously, and guys a little further down the list can make up the difference with higher rankings around the greens, but these numbers do at least show us that big hitters like Bubba and Dustin can still come up with decent GIR numbers, although the punishment at Congressional might be more severe.

Scrambling

You must be able to save par. Birdies are all well and good, but at a U.S. Open the guy who walks off with the trophy will have made a hell of a lot of good pars. Whether from bunkers, thick greenside rough, run-off areas, or 100 yards back in the fairway after a chip-out from the rough, you must get up and down time and again. With Phil Mickelson’s wedgeplay, you have to wonder how he hasn’t won it yet – remember, though, he does have 5 runners-up finishes.

So who gets it up and down the most on tour?

Unsurprisingly, we have a few of the season’s early winners high up in the rankings – two-time champion Mark Wilson tops the chart, while Memorial champ Steve Stricker comes in in 3^rd. World Number One Luke Donald clocks in at 6^th, while former U.S. Open winner Geoff Ogilvy (7^th), Zach Johnson (8^th), KJ Choi (9^th) and Matt Kuchar (13^th) also have good numbers. Padraig Harrington and Mickelson come in at 16^th and 17^th respectively. Nick Watney (T23) and Retief Goosen (25^th) finish out the top 25.

These guys have 11 major championships between them, and bear in mind that Stricker and Donald don’t own any. Yet.

A lot of these names are high on the list of bogey avoidance (obviously) – Stricker, Kuchar and Donald make up 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd, with Nick Watney placing 11^th and Phil Mickelson T15 with Justin Rose. To his credit, Sergio Garcia places 21^st on this list, despite not being the greatest scrambler of all time.

Putting Inside 10ft

The last stat we’ll look at is percentage of putts made from within 10 feet. In any tournament, the guys who make all their 5, 6, 7-footers will be in contention, but nowhere more so than the U.S. Open. We’ve talked about the importance of making those pars when you need to – plenty of them will be around the 10-foot range – there’ll be some good 10-foot bogeys made too, you can be sure of that.

Geoff Ogilvy and Zach Johnson score well again, placing 2^nd and 4^th respectively. 2009 U.S. PGA Champion comes in at T6, while Brian Gay (T11), Ryan Moore (13^th) and Retief Goosen (14^th) have good showings. Those two guys I keep coming back to – Donald and Stricker? 17^th and 21^st. Harrington places T22 while Nick Watney closes out the top 25.

So there you have it. A few key numbers to consider when picking your tip for the U.S. Open. Obviously, the system is flawed – I’ve been using the PGA Tour stats (because, being American, they’re an awful lot better than those provided by the European Tour) and so players like Martin Kaymer, Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy and Miguel Angel Jimenez won’t appear.

For your guidedog, here are a few scrambling numbers from the European stats – Reitef Goosen takes 2^nd place, Sergio surprisingly makes it in at 6^th (although with fewer rounds), while Matteo Manassero and Martin Kaymer are in 8^th and 9^th place. Jimenez and Westwood are respectable as well, placing 13^th and 18^th.

McIlroy, Kaymer, McDowell, Poulter and Manassero all place in the top-20 in GIR.

What does it all mean? Who knows? But it’s no surprise that the names that seem to come up in all aspects are those of Luke Donald, Mr. Consistent Steve Stricker, and star of the future Nick Watney, as well as guys who’ve won the championship before.

Make of it what you will.

Just Like Home?

No major championship is ever boring, but not many are like the 2010 U.S. PGA.

Although sometimes treated as the forgotten major, its crucial timing in a Ryder Cup year always piques the interest. This year, that's not the only reason.

The PGA is being played at Whistling Straits, one of the most unusual and spectacular courses on the American continent. Host to the PGA in 2004, the course is modelled on the links courses of Ireland, with signposts pointing east to Ballybunion, Royal Portrush, and Portmarnock stationed outside the clubhouse.

As with so many top US courses, it was the genius of Pete Dye that brought Herb Kohler's dreams to reality. Dye and wife Alice came to the shores of Lake Michigan, shifted some soil around, got some dunes going, and hey presto - you'd think you were in Co. Kerry.

The course is long - certain holes require close to a 300-yard carry off the tee - but the emphasis is on accuracy. Paul McGinley, not noted for his length, finished 6th here in 2004 when Vijay Singh took the title. As with most majors, you can't have a weakness, but the focus is on hitting fairways and scrambling. On a course with an average of 53 bunkers per hole, you've got to be confident of getting up and down - you're not going to avoid them all.

So how will this semi-Irish course suit the Irish players? The wind will blow, and as Graeme McDowell has already noted, there'll be days when he'll feel like he's at Portrush or Royal County Down. It should give a slight advantage to the British and Irish players, but not much more than that. The top players in the world these days know how to play links golf - just look at how tough it's been to get a homegrown winner of the Open.

One man whom it might help more than others is Shane Lowry - with far less experience of major golf than his fellow countrymen, he'll feel more at home on this course than he would on Hazeltine, or Baltusrol. With his one win coming in the gales at Baltray, Lowry will be looking to capitalize on any advantage present. I don't expect him to contend seriously, but a solid 3-day performance at the Open shows that his game's in decent nick, and I'd be confident of him making the cut.

Darren Clarke had a decent finish here in 2004, tying for 13th place, and some recent form will give him hope this week. However, the fact is that his priorities have changed in the last few years. He showed at Loch Lomond that he still has some great golf left in him, but to expect him to hold it together for four days at the highest level is to much to ask. While he still harbours hope of making the Ryder Cup team, he can realistcally look forward to being a very important vice-captain.

Graeme McDowell is looking to reignite his game after the inevitable come-down following his U.S. Open triumph. He showed some good form last week in Ohio, and the course should suit him down to the ground - he hits it long and straight, is a fantastic iron player, and isn't afraid to make the putts he needs. I expect to see him in the mix this week, and when he gets pumped he's tough to stop.

Rory McIlroy - The bookies have him at 3rd favourite in the field, and they know what they're doing. He's continuing his relentless run of good golf, shooting four rounds under par last week at Firestone, one of only two players to do so (the other being Bo Van Pelt - tune in tomorrow).

He's steadily moving towards one of the top spots in the world, and the first major isn't too far away. I've always worried slightly over his putting, but since his win at Quail Hollow it seems to be in better shape, and if he can roll the ball well this week he's got to be a contender.

Finally, the main man. His last win worldwide came at the U.S. PGA two years ago, and that's not right. Padraig Harrington is back - he's always a slow starter in the season, hitting his straps once summer rolls around, and his performances in Killarney and Ohio have shown him to be hitting form just in time for the final major. The fact that his putting was off in his T-9 finish last week actually encourages me - it shows that his long game's back in shape, and let's face it - Harrington's putting's never going to be dodgy for too long.

I honestly think Harrington is going to win this week - the focus is still there, and the game is rejoining it. He loves nothing better than going head to head with the world's best, and he's got as much major experience as anyone out there now. The fact that a win would secure his spot on Monty's team for Celtic Manor would be icing on an already delicious cake.

I'll be back tomorrow to weigh up the chances of the non-Irish players in the field, but they'll have their work cut out to beat Paddy.

Open Season

It's U.S. Open week - the one week where the USGA get their hands on the world's greatest players and give their sadism a good airing.

This year the tournament returns to Pebble Beach, where, in 2000, Tiger Woods never gave the field a look-in, winning by a whopping 15 shots.
The USGA have set it up as a U.S. Open should be, so par's a good score. The greens will run at 12 on the stimpmeter all week, and the rough is long.
Pebble Beach isn't the longest course, at a 7,040 yard par 71, but don't be fooled. Its small greens make scoring very difficult, and the yardage reflects the risk-reward nature of some of the holes. There are par 4s to tempt the big hitters off the tee, while the 18th, one of the greatest finishing holes in golf, is reachable in two to set up an eagle opportunity, but it'll take nerve. The fairway has been narrowed significantly, and plenty of ProVs will heading for a swim at the weekend.

To compete at the U.S. Open, you need to be a quality ball-striker, hitting fairways and greens. You also need to be a great scrambler when things go wrong. Which they will. In other words, you can't have a weakness. Every round will test every facet of your game. If you manage to hit the greens, great - they're small, so you won't be hitting the world's longest putts. If you miss them, you'll do well to get up and down for par.
Mental strength is key - you can't get upset if you go without a birdie for 12 holes or so - grind out the pars and you won't be too far away.

A few names jump out as immediate contenders. Luke Donald has rediscovered his best form, with a handful of top-5s and a win in Madrid. He's always been a great striker of the golf ball; he's got a simple swing and doesn't make many mistakes. This year, his scrambling has come to the fore, with his short putting being as solid as anyone's. He's got a poor record in the U.S Open to date, but he won't bother too much about that - he's playing the best golf of his career.
Fellow Englishman Lee Westwood won in Memphis on Sunday with another supreme display. He's the best ball-striker in the game, and it's simply a matter of time before he gets the first major on his CV. The only problem I can find is his chipping - it's still relatively weak for a player of his standard, and it's going to be tested at Pebble Beach. Unless he gets the feel of the greens early on, he's going to drop shots.

Phil Mickelson produced a masterclass to win the U.S. Masters in April. He's won the AT&T event at Pebble three times - it's true that it's a different set-up this week, but he'll still get that winning vibe when he gets on the first tee. He's finished runner-up at the U.S. Open a record five times, including last year, so we know he has the game for it. His short putting has improved drastically this year following work with Dave Stockton, and he looks as confident as anyone from 5 feet.

Rory McIlroy is the brightest star in golf, but I don't think he quite has the maturity to close out a U.S. Open victory - you need a hell of a lot of discipline to be happy with pars all the way round, which only comes with experience. He can get frustrated when birdies are flowing - in the U.S. Open, pars give you momentum, and I'm not sure that he understands that yet. He's a fantastic player, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him notch up a top-10, but the title will take another few tries.
Don't rule out his friend Graeme McDowell - he's coming off a win in Wales, and looks to be back to top form. He gets seriously pumped when he's in contention, and his Ryder Cup efforts showed us that he's not scared of the Americans on home soil. He's got a solid all-round game, and his putting looks great.
As for Padraig Harrington - he's showed flashes of brilliance this year, but hasn't managed to put four good rounds together. I still fancy him to bring it out this week - his game's only an iota off being seriously good, and mentally speaking, he's as good as anyone. He's one of the greatest scramblers I've ever seen, and he loves grinding out a score. He finished in a tie for 5th back in 2000, so he'll feel comfortable at the venue. I'm confident Harrington's shaping up for a great summer - no better way to start.

What about Tiger? He smashed every record he could find in 2000, surely that counts for something? His game showed improvement at Memorial two weeks ago, but there's no substitute for competitive play, and he simply hasn't played enough. His driving still isn't under control, and a loose driver will lead to a missed cut at Pebble.
On the flip side, he's the greatest player in the history of the game. He played badly at the Masters and came 4th through sheer willpower. You can bet your life he's going to bring out that willpower again this week, as he looks for major number 15.
The focus is sure to be on him this week, but the cameras knkow that in Mickelson and Westwood Tiger has some top-class challengers. He's been welcomed by the crowds since his return, and is going about his business quietly. The media frenzy won't get going unless he puts himself in contention - if he does, strap in.

Ernie Els and Jim Furyk have each won twice on Tour this year, and have three U.S. Opens between them. Ernie's cooled off a bit since the last win, but don't rule him out too fast, and as for Furyk, he's got to be in the top few this week - he doesn't get rattled easily, and he could make a par from hell.

That's the big names dealt with - who else could challenge? Lucas Glover was a dark horse last year when he held on on the final day; is there a Glover for 2010? KJ Choi has the consistency, and should challenge, but my outside calls are four Americans, all vying for Ryder Cup spots as well as a first major - Ben Crane, Matt Kuchar, Bo Van Pelt and Brian Gay.
You won't find four players more consistent in 2010 - with 17 top-10s between them, including a win for Ben Crane, all four are solid ball-strikers who make a lot of putts.

The U.S. Open is a week where the amateur golfer can enjoy himself. After watching tournaments be won at 23 under par, with par-5s reduced to drivers and 8-irons, it's a relief to see the world's best struggle a bit. That nett 83 the other day doesn't seem so bad when you can snuggle into your chair and watch Mickelson miss a green from 50 yards, or Vijay pull a drive into a watery grave.
The U.S. Open is a true test of golf: no one flukes their way to a win. Whoever lifts the trophy on Sunday evening will have deserved it, no matter what the circumstances.
Whether it's an 18-hole playoff or a victory by 5 shots, you can be sure that no one's going to feel safe until the ball has fallen into the cup on the 18th green.

American Idol

Everyone knows about Rory McIlroy. He's no longer a callow rookie who’s fun to watch, but a seasoned pro whose name will be on that Sunday leaderboard more often than not. He’s big in Europe, he’s big in America. McIlroy’s the sort of guy the fickle American fans can get behind, and believe me, that means a lot if you’re playing the PGA Tour. Just ask Colin Montgomerie.

But do the Americans have their own McIlroy on the rise? Is there a young, exciting player in the States who’s going to carry the flag in future majors and Ryder Cups?

How about Rickie Fowler?

Still a virtual unknown this side of the water, Fowler is fast making a name for himself in the US. The number one ranked amateur golfer in the world for 36 weeks in 2007 and 2008, and twice Walker Cup-player with a 7-1 record, he hit the headlines in 2008, shooting -1 in the first round of the US Open.

He turned pro at the end of last year, and finished T-7^th in his PGA Tour professional debut in October. A week later, he lost to Troy Matteson in a playoff at the Frys.com Open, just his second Tour event as a pro. Last month, Fowler had another opportunity to win in Scottsdale, before finishing second to Hunter Mahan.

To get a feel of what Fowler’s like – you have to see him, you have to hear him. He’s a flashy-dressing, motorbike-jumping, swashbuckling guy, and he brings it all to the golf course. His swing is a homemade thrasher of a swing, terrifyingly fast, but it gets the job done. During that 2^nd place last October, he had an eagle in each round and a hole-in-one.

He doesn’t watch himself for hours on video, he doesn’t over-analyse his game. He just goes out there and plays golf. In interviews he seems cool and collected. Maybe he’s going to need a bit of analysis to improve over the years, and as he matures I’ve no doubt this will come. At the moment though, he’s a breath of fresh air on to the ever less dominant PGA Tour.

How does he compare with McIlroy? Physically speaking, they’re the same height, weight, and Fowler’s just 5 months older. They even have similarly terrible haircuts.

There’s no doubt that McIlroy is the more polished player – he has the classic swing and more professional manner, but there’s more to the comparison when you go deeper. Both rely on their long games a little too much, and need to hole some more putts. Both are ready to take on that big shot when it really counts. Both love the pressure of competing. Despite Fowler’s wilder approach to the game, he’s got a coolness and maturity about him that make you feel he’s here to stay.

Rory McIlroy is a future World No. 1. He’s going to win at least a few majors and heaps of Ryder Cups. Rickie Fowler – we don’t know. He’s still the raw youth that McIlroy was two years ago. He probably doesn’t have the consistency to ever be the best player in the world, but he’s going to compete. I’ve no doubt that he’ll face McIlroy down the stretch of tournaments to come, and he’ll prevail in some of them. They’ll play Ryder Cups against each other, and they’ll share some wins there.

Rickie Fowler is the perfect sportsman for the American fans – he’s young, wild, attractive, and talented. He’ll play to the rowdy crowds, and get pumped up on Sunday afternoons. He’ll miss three cuts running and win the next week out. The sponsors have noticed this and every week he’s a got a new “fashionable” look.

For some time the US Tour has lacked what Europe has in spades – the early 20s players of the next generation. It’s great to see Ernie, Furyk, Mickelson and co. winning, but we also need to see who’s waiting to take over.

Watch Rickie Fowler.