Last Chance

So often termed the forgotten major, the U.S. PGA Championship has nonetheless provided a host of unforgettable stories since its inception. In recent years, Padraig Harrington rolled in a 15-footer on the 18^th to dramatically take his 3^rd major out of six, the year after saw Y.E. Yang become the first player to take the lead off Tiger in the final round, and be the first Asian major winner to boot, while last year won’t be a tournament that Dustin Johnson forgets too quickly.

This year looks set to be as interesting a major as we’ve seen in recent times – the World Numbers 1 and 2 are still trying to find that first win, while Tiger Woods continues his comeback after a solid first week back. Steve Williams had an even better first week back, but is regretting not keeping his mouth shut about it. International players are sweeping the major board these days, and the pressure on the younger pretenders in the U.S. is growing ever more – are Rickie Fowler, Nick Watney, Hunter Mahan, Bubba, DJ et al ready to take the plunge?

The PGA returns to Atlanta Athletic Club this year, 10 years after David Toms became one of the more underrated major winners. His victory was chock-full of memories as well – he achieved the longest major ace when he holed a 5-wood from 250 yards on the 15^th hole, and had enough confidence in his short game to lay up at the final hole, hit a wedge to 10 feet, and sink the putt to take the title by a shot from Phil Mickelson.

The golf course has changed somewhat for this edition – 250 yards has been added to the course, making it 7,463 – pretty long for a par 70. The rough has been grown to be as severe as a U.S. Open course. Hitting fairways is at an absolute premium – with three par 4s measuring over 475 yards, you aren’t going to be able to hit all the greens from a wayward drive. The rough around the greens will be punishing as well, so scrambling will be vital. You’re not going to hit every green, so you’d better be able to chip and make some clutch putts. Those greens have been changed from bentgrass to Bermuda since 2001, and will be rolling at 12 or more on the stimpmeter.

So what attributes do you need? Based on the above, it’s first and foremost a ball-striker’s venue. You won’t win if you’re only hitting 50% of fairways. Ideally you want to hit it long as well as straight – having 220 in to some of these greens isn’t going to be easy. As with any major, you need a whole lot of patience and plenty of guts – there’ll be pars you have to make, and bogeys you have to forget. Forget technique for a second – you’ll have to be fit. It’s going to be hot all week, with not much wind. Lee Westwood’s shed 9 pounds in the last month, and that’s going to be valuable. You don’t want to be carrying any excess baggage in conditions where temperatures will go past 90 degrees.

Who will win? I mentioned Lee Westwood in the last paragraph, and even though I think he’s a bit of a choker, this might be the week he does it. He hits the ball as well as anyone, and his putting (his main weakness) looked a lot better at Akron last week. If he can keep himself to 30 putts a round, he should walk this tournament. He seems more relaxed in the press tent since he’s gone to Dr. Bob, and hopefully he’s not letting that “best player never to win a major” tag put him off too much. I never back Westwood in majors, and I very seldom back anyone at a low price, but I’m on Westwood this week at 15/1, so read into that what you will.

Sticking with my betting, I’ve also backed Luke Donald at 14/1, another low-priced favourite. There are plenty of similarities between Donald and David Toms, last winner at this venue – both have exceptional short games to compensate for a shorter long game. Donald comes in to this PGA as the most underrated World Number 1 in history, although he too faces pressure to pick up a major. Unlike Westwood, however, Donald hasn’t really choked at the big moment – he simply hasn’t had enough time to win yet – his game has only hit this new level in the last 18 months, and he will win one in the next couple of years. If he hits the fairways, he stands a great chance – even though he’ll be leaving himself more into the green than other players, his scrambling is second to none.

The only two players who can match Westwood for ball-striking are two more players whose putting is an issue – U.S. Open champion Rory McIlroy and long-time major struggler Sergio Garcia. McIlroy played some really solid golf last week in Akron, and if he putts like he did at the U.S. Open he’ll definitely be in contention on Sunday afternoon. He says he plays better in the States – this is as States as golf is going to get.

Sergio, meanwhile, has played the best golf for several years in the last few months, and the course should suit him if he can keep it in play off the tee. As usual, he’ll need to hole some putts, but the way he hits his irons, like Westwood, 30 a day would probably coast him to the title. At 60/1, get on that.

What about the Americans? While Tiger played well last week, he’s not yet hitting the driver straight enough to contend at a course this penal. I love having him back in the game, and he’s not too far off winning again, but it’s unlikely to come this week.

Dustin Johnson has unfinished business with the PGA, and as he showed at the British Open, he still likes the big stage. A four-iron out of bounds on the back 9 put paid to that, but anyone who hits the ball as far as he does has a great chance this week.

Rickie Fowler is another man for the big occasion – he finally shot a good 4^th round last week, only to be left in Adam Scott’s wake. After a very mature performance at the British Open though, it’s more good signs for Fowler. I wonder if the PGA is too big an occasion to pick up his first Tour win, but you never know – he’s full of confidence and is sure to be a fan favourite.

Steve Stricker is as steady as the come, and a great putter to boot – he hasn’t missed a top-20 in his last 10 starts, and deserves a major on his résumé – he should contend this week. Mickelson finished 2^nd here in 2001, but as usual, there’s no point in predicting what he’ll do. Nick Watney is another young American who will win majors – he blew it last year with a final round 81, but he’s had a couple of big wins since then. Finally – Zach Johnson – loves winning in Georgia, and putts as well as anyone from 10 feet.

Of course the Aussies are back in form – Jason Day is the most exciting player on Tour at the moment, with the least fear of anyone. He’s very close to a major title, and is sure to contend this week. Adam Scott pulled off the biggest win of his career last week, and even though I’m not a fan of those contraptions, the long putter sure is doing the business. If he plays like he did last week he’s almost unbeatable.

With no Ryder Cup this year, the PGA is our last dose of superstar top-quality golf for a while (that’s right FedEx Cup, I don’t really care). With so many players in the frame (I haven’t even mentioned the defending champion), and a few surprises ready to emerge, it should be a fantastic major. Enjoy.

Crunching the Numbers

Historically the toughest test of all golf championships, the U.S. Open is the one week left where the U.S.G.A. can inflict pain on the top professionals in the world. Characterized by tight fairways, high rough, fast greens and consequentially high scoring averages, the U.S. Open can only be won by a golfer who keeps his game and head in check throughout four days of gruelling competition. Last year saw Graeme McDowell become the first European in 40 years to lift the trophy, after he withstood challenges from Gregory Havret, Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods and Ernie Els. Dustin Johnson played three great rounds but to no avail, imploding on the front nine on Sunday to leave licking his wounds and imagining what might have been.

This year the tournament heads to Maryland, to Congressional Golf and Country Club. The U.S. Open was held there in 1997, when Ernie Els (-4) finished a shot ahead of Colin Montgomerie to land his second U.S. Open title. Give the 14-year gap, and the changes made to the course since then, we can’t glean too much information from the final leaderboard – aside from Els, Jim Furyk is the only current payer with a top-10 at Congressional’s last showing.

At a 7,500 yard par 71, Congressional looks to be fitting the mould for U.S. Open courses – the greens will be fast, and the rough at its shortest will be between 3 ¾ and 4 inches deep.

So who can triumph? I’ll be back later in the week with more detailed previews and tips, but right now, let’s look at what some of the key stats will be in a week where the focus has to be on damage limitation. Par is seldom a bad score in this tournament, and the 2011 edition looks like it won’t be any different.

Ball-Striking

You must find fairways and greens at the U.S. Open. The organizers will be sure to keep the greens slick and well surrounded by run-off areas, so making par after a wayward iron shot can be nigh on impossible. As for hitting the green from the rough, you’re going to need a bit of luck. In 2004, most players took on Shinnecock Hills with fairway woods off the tee – Vijay Singh took a different approach – he decided to whack the driver almost everywhere, but trust that he’d be able to muscle 8 and 9-irons from the rough if he missed the fairways. He went into the weekend leading the Greens In Regulation stats. Congressional is longer than Shinnecock, but the Vijay tactic should give hope to some of the bombers, who will hope to use their length to set up shorter approaches.

Take Bubba Watson – despite ranking 92 in driving accuracy on tour, he’s number 2 in distance (surely he’s not happy about that), and he manages to top the GIR stats on the PGA Tour. He’s number 2 behind Boo Weekley on the PGA Tour’s Ball-Striking stats (combination of Driving & GIR), and with a short game like his, he should be a serious contender this week. Also clocking in high up on the ball-striking list are Hunter Mahan (T4), Nick Watney (9^th), Sergio Garcia (T10), Dustin Johnson (14^th), Adam Scott (16^th), and Matt Kuchar in 18^th place. Justin Rose (23^rd) and Graeme McDowell (25^th) close out the top 25.

Two guys a little further down to note are Steve Stricker in 34^th place and Luke Donald who ties for 42^nd.

All of these guys would be on my shortlist to contend this week, so it’s encouraging to see that they’re doing the first part right. The stats only give us so much obviously, and guys a little further down the list can make up the difference with higher rankings around the greens, but these numbers do at least show us that big hitters like Bubba and Dustin can still come up with decent GIR numbers, although the punishment at Congressional might be more severe.

Scrambling

You must be able to save par. Birdies are all well and good, but at a U.S. Open the guy who walks off with the trophy will have made a hell of a lot of good pars. Whether from bunkers, thick greenside rough, run-off areas, or 100 yards back in the fairway after a chip-out from the rough, you must get up and down time and again. With Phil Mickelson’s wedgeplay, you have to wonder how he hasn’t won it yet – remember, though, he does have 5 runners-up finishes.

So who gets it up and down the most on tour?

Unsurprisingly, we have a few of the season’s early winners high up in the rankings – two-time champion Mark Wilson tops the chart, while Memorial champ Steve Stricker comes in in 3^rd. World Number One Luke Donald clocks in at 6^th, while former U.S. Open winner Geoff Ogilvy (7^th), Zach Johnson (8^th), KJ Choi (9^th) and Matt Kuchar (13^th) also have good numbers. Padraig Harrington and Mickelson come in at 16^th and 17^th respectively. Nick Watney (T23) and Retief Goosen (25^th) finish out the top 25.

These guys have 11 major championships between them, and bear in mind that Stricker and Donald don’t own any. Yet.

A lot of these names are high on the list of bogey avoidance (obviously) – Stricker, Kuchar and Donald make up 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd, with Nick Watney placing 11^th and Phil Mickelson T15 with Justin Rose. To his credit, Sergio Garcia places 21^st on this list, despite not being the greatest scrambler of all time.

Putting Inside 10ft

The last stat we’ll look at is percentage of putts made from within 10 feet. In any tournament, the guys who make all their 5, 6, 7-footers will be in contention, but nowhere more so than the U.S. Open. We’ve talked about the importance of making those pars when you need to – plenty of them will be around the 10-foot range – there’ll be some good 10-foot bogeys made too, you can be sure of that.

Geoff Ogilvy and Zach Johnson score well again, placing 2^nd and 4^th respectively. 2009 U.S. PGA Champion comes in at T6, while Brian Gay (T11), Ryan Moore (13^th) and Retief Goosen (14^th) have good showings. Those two guys I keep coming back to – Donald and Stricker? 17^th and 21^st. Harrington places T22 while Nick Watney closes out the top 25.

So there you have it. A few key numbers to consider when picking your tip for the U.S. Open. Obviously, the system is flawed – I’ve been using the PGA Tour stats (because, being American, they’re an awful lot better than those provided by the European Tour) and so players like Martin Kaymer, Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy and Miguel Angel Jimenez won’t appear.

For your guidedog, here are a few scrambling numbers from the European stats – Reitef Goosen takes 2^nd place, Sergio surprisingly makes it in at 6^th (although with fewer rounds), while Matteo Manassero and Martin Kaymer are in 8^th and 9^th place. Jimenez and Westwood are respectable as well, placing 13^th and 18^th.

McIlroy, Kaymer, McDowell, Poulter and Manassero all place in the top-20 in GIR.

What does it all mean? Who knows? But it’s no surprise that the names that seem to come up in all aspects are those of Luke Donald, Mr. Consistent Steve Stricker, and star of the future Nick Watney, as well as guys who’ve won the championship before.

Make of it what you will.

Ryder Cup Watch

Last September, I drew up a list of the teams I thought would face off at Celtic Manor this October for the Ryder Cup. Having found the lists in an untroubled drawer, they make interesting reading, with only 3 months of qualification left. We'll get to the Americans next week, but let's have a look at who I thought Monty would have on the first tee in Wales.

Padraig Harrington

Lee Westwood

Robert Karlsson

Henrik Stenson

Paul Casey

Ian Poulter

Graeme McDowell

Rory McIlroy

Sergio Garcia

Ross Fisher

Martin Kaymer

Alvaro Quiros

Of Nick Faldo's team, I'd decided that Justin Rose, Soren Hansen, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Oliver Wilson would fail to reappear. Despite Miguel's win in the Gulf earlier this year, I'll stick by that decision. As for my 12 players - I'm happy with most of them, but there are a couple who look a little bit wobbly. What's more, there are guys not on that list who've mounted a charge.

The most obvious absence is Luke Donald, in the light of his performances over the last few weeks. Donald has had a great season, with a few solid finishes Stateside, before returning to Europe and collecting a 2nd place and then a win. His triumph on Sunday has hopefully silenced those who doubted his killer instinct. The pressure was on after his late, late disaster in Wentworth the week before, and he proved himself up to the task. He now looks set to be on the bus to Wales in the autumn, and with a record like his (5 1/2 out of 7), Monty will be delighted.

Donald is such a steady player that he suits the format perfectly - he'll keep a foursomes game chugging along, and can be the reliable player in a fourball to allow his partner burn it up.

Donald has a 4/4 record in the foursome matches, all played with Sergio Garcia.

Sergio's the man over whom the biggest question mark floats. He's had a lousy time of it. He won in the Orient in December 2008, and since then he's fallen off the radar. His mental game's shot, and his putting's still useless. Surely that makes it easy - he won't qualify, and he doesn't deserve a pick. Not quite.

Sergio's always seemed able to turn it on in the Ryder Cup. He's brilliant in the team matches, whether with Jesper Parnevik or Luke Donald. After missing every putt for months beforehand, suddenly they all roll in. He's a firey, energetic player, and you need a couple of them in your locker room.

When he fails to qualify, there'll be a lot of chat about the picks. Can Monty afford to give him one. If he shows any form at all in the summer he'll get one - he's got a couple of majors and a WGC to go at in the last 6 weeks. Without that justification though, it'd be a brave captain to choose him.

What about the Swedes? I'm still confident Karlsson will make it - he's got a win this year and he showed in Wentworth that his game's on the mend. He needs a little more consistency, but I see him challenging strongly at the Open this year, and I think he'll qualify.

Stenson is a trickier one - he's been out of form since winning the Players last May, and he's shown no signs of coming back. Unless he mounts a charge in the summer, he ca kiss his chance goodbye.

The man who might well jump into his shoes is Wales' one shot at a home boy. Rhys Davies has showed his talent this year, with a win in Morocco and a couple of runner-up spots. He's a good ball-striker, a wonderful putter, and has the grit that'll be oh so important come Ryder Cup Sunday. The way he's playing at the moment, he might make it on merit, but he'll certainly be at the front of Monty's mind.

Apologies to Simon Dyson and Ross McGowan, but I think they'll drop off the automatic spots pretty soon. One man who won't go away so easily is Francesco Molinari - he showed his team play with big brother Edoardo in the World Cup, and both bros are pushing for spots. Francesco's playing in Wales this weekend, and I fancy him to finish at least top-5.

So there you go. Really, I've no idea of what's going to happen. If I had to cut three from my list, it'd be the Swedes and Sergio. Ross Fisher has work to do, but he strikes me as a guy who makes most of his money in the summer months.

The team's going to have a mix of talents - steady grinding, scrambling, raw talent, big hitting, and deft touches.

One thing's for sure - it'll be a team bursting with quality.

Into The East

The PGA Tour heads to Florida for the month of March, and where better to start than PGA National?

The Honda Classic has thrown up some great winners over the years, including Padraig Harrington in 2005, for his first win across the pond. Harrington will be looking to get his game back on track after a mixed 2009, but for him, the season's only beginning.

It's a fantastic field - Westwood, Casey, Villegas, Allenby, Els, defending champion Yang, and Sergio Garcia to name but a few. There is as much talent this week as in any event so far this year, with the exception perhaps of the WGC World Matchplay.

So who'll do it?

Robert Allenby's my top pick for the week - he's playing great this year - another top-10 last week in Scottsdale boosts the stats some more. Always a great iron-player, Allenby's started to get his putting going in 2010 with a new technique, and watch out for him in all four majors this year. Even if the putter isn't too hot this week, PGA National's a ball-striker's course.

Once you hear those words, Paul Casey, Lee Westwood and Sergio Garcia instantly jump up the list. Three of the finest ball-striker's in the game have all enjoyed some success this year already, and all three think they're the next major winner.

Tim Clark's another guy who's a good bet this week - the one downside is that he's never played the course before, but the upside is his fantastic play. Little Tim's a fighter, and he's frighteningly accurate with the irons. His one weakness is his chipping, but if he hits enough greens this week I'd expect him to finish very high up.

Ernie Els needs to get a little more consistency into his game, but he's shown promise this year. He'll definitely be in the mix in a major or two, and he's won here before.

Charles Howell has had a rough run for a guy with so much talent, but another high finish last week makes me think his game could finally be coming to fruition. The Schwartzel of the US?

Long shot this week? Watch out for Scott Piercy. He had a decent finish last week at Scottsdale, and gave this event a scare last year.

For me though, this tournament is exciting for another reason. Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy are both teeing it up this week, and I'm hoping they'll get at least one round together. Europe's new young talent is a little more experienced and proven that American Fowler, but they're two guys who we'll be seeing a lot of in the coming years, and expect a few back-nine battles between them. Fowler doesn't have the same measured swing as McIlroy, being a bit more swashbuckling, but he's got a hell of a long game and a great mindset.

There are more similarities between these guys than the closeness in age and a good driver though. Check back here on Monday for a closer look at how McIlroy and Fowler square up against each other; in the meantime, watch out for them on the Sunday leaderboard.

More Than A Match For Anyone

"Don't get me wrong, I really respect every professional golfer, but I know I haven't played to my full potential and when that happens, it will be just me and Tiger."

When Ian Poulter came out with this statement in January 2008, irritated heads were shaken and indulgent smiles were smiled. It was just another wild comment from a player who had yet to show the game to back up the cockiness.

After this week's performance in the deserts of Arizona, all people are wondering is whether Tiger will be back to face him.

The top 6 in the World makes interesting reading: three Americans - Woods, Stricker, Mickelson, followed by three Englishmen - Westwood, Poulter, Casey.

Stricker, Mickelson, and Westwood are all fantastic players - don't be surprised if they pick up a couple of majors between them in the next two years, but there's something different about Poulter. He's got that fire behind his eyes, that frightening stare when he's in the zone, and that strut. He's got more self-belief than anyone on Tour, and now, he's shown the world he's got the game to match.

When asked for a turning point in Ian Poulter's career, I can pinpoint it to the minute - Sunday afternoon in Royal Birkdale, final round of the 2008 Open Championship. Poulter was playing ahead of Padraig Harrington, who would go on to win. He faced a 12-foot putt on the final green, which he had to make to stay just two shots back, and give himself any chance of staying in contention. He made the putt.

We all know what happened then - Harrington played the shot of his life on the 17th - a 5-wood to three feet to set up an eagle to allow him a canter down the home hole.

But look at it from Poulter's point of view - that putt on 18 was for him, a putt for a major championship. He piled the pressure on himself, and came up trumps. When the chips were down, he faced the music. I don't know how many more clichés I need to explain it any more clearly.

That putt told us, and more importantly him, that he had what it took. Nick Faldo put his trust in him at the Ryder Cup later that year, and he delivered. Europe lost that week, but the one image I always have is of Graeme McDowell ("G-Mac") and Poults high-fiving after beating im Furyk and Kenny Perry 1 up in the Saturday fourballs. It was terrifying. I have never seen two more pumped golfers in the one moment. It looked like they'd need a ten-mile run to calm down.

It took Poulter until November 2009 to register his next win, but he's clearly on a new road. He came so close to winning in Abu Dhabi this year only to come up a shot shy, but his performance at Tucson was magnificent. He had some tough matches - he was nip-and-tuck with Justin Leonard in the first round before prevailing on the the 19th, and he never led Thongchai Jaidee until the 17th.

In the semi-final and final, he was in a class of his own. He drove the ball superbly, hardly bothering to look where it went. His ironplay was devastating, and he's never putted like that before. He holed over 90% from 10 feet and in this week - I can only remember him missing one in the last two matches, and even that just lipped out of the cup. It was fitting that his final stroke of the week was a 10-foot putt on the 34th hole - he brushed it straight in the middle once again.

Ian Poulter has hit the afterburners, and he's not going to slow down anytime soon. The WGC titles are second only to the majors, but he won't want to be second only to anything. He's got his sights firmly set on Augusta, and don't be surprised to see him in the hunt there as well.

It would be unfair not to mention Paul Casey - he played some fantastic golf this week, and was part of one of the most amazing matches the Accenture has ever seen, when it took him 24 holes to dispatch Camilo Villegas to the consolation match. He showed his mettle on those extra holes, rolling in a couple of important 5-footers to stay in the match. In the final, he looked to get off to a flyer, stitching his second at the 2nd for a kick-in eagle, but he never got the momentum back. Twice he pegged Poulter back from 4up to just 2, but he could get no further. The match was won on two holes, for me - the 12th, where Poulter shortsided himself on the par 3, and got up and down for par, and the 15th, where Poulter stitched a tricky chip shot to two inches, leaving himself a birdie. Even before Casey's own birdie attempt slid agonisingly by, you got the feeling it was game over.

English golf was the dominant force between about 1890 and 1920, deposing the Scots from the top. Since then the Americans have been in charge. With three Englishmen in the top 6, and just seven Americans in the top 20, it looks as if that sands might be shifting once again. It won't be English dominance, but it could well be European, with so many fine young players on the up and up. Certainly, the European challenge going into every major has never been so strong.

The Ryder Cup is later this year, and Colin Montgomerie's team will be out for revenge. Yesterday's finalists will be there, you can be sure of that, and I, for one, can't wait to see those eyes of Ian Poulter staring down a putt on the 18th in Celtic Manor.

The Race Is On

Every year it gets tougher to pick who’ll be on the Ryder Cup team. More and more new stars are born each year, and the old faces aren’t going away. It’s hard to believe that Karlsson and Stenson were rookies on the team in 2006, and, as we’ll see, our rookies next year could be among some of the world’s top players.

This blog will look at a few of the golfers who I regard as near certainties to make the team, while the next few will look at possible qualifiers and noteworthy absentees.

Padraig Harrington: After a troubling first half of the year, including missing 5 cuts in a row, he found his form again at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational. The collapse there and at the US PGA the following week will remain with us for some time, but the important fact was that his new swing has settled, and he’s playing the best golf of his life. A double bogey on the back nine on Sunday also caused him to lose out in the Barclays, but he’s one of the mentally toughest player on Tour, and I expect him to win again very soon.

There’s no question over his qualification for Celtic Manor, and I expect him to top the list. He didn’t have a great time in Valhalla, but he was suffering from a stomach bug at the time. Only Tiger can hold a candle to him in terms of pressure putting, and he’s going to be a lynch-pin of Monty’s team.

Henrik Stenson: The big-hitting Swede has seemed to be a bit quieter this year, despite having the biggest win of his career at Sawgrass in May. He had a few top-5s at the beginning of the year, but since the Players hasn’t really threatened again. He finished in the top 15 of the last 3 majors, showing that he gets his game going for the big occasions. He’s still ranked 6 in the world, and there are no signs of his going away. Expect him to pick up at least one win before the year is out, quite possibly in Cologne this week. He’s played in two Ryder Cups already, and his calm under pressure has been crucial to the team. Stenson is still improving all the time – the Players was a big step in his career, and a win like that can take some adjusting to. He’s going to have a major victory in the next 2 years, and he shouldn’t have any trouble qualifying for Wales.

Lee Westwood: Westwood needs a win. He hasn’t won in just under two years, and the pressure keeps building. He’s still in the world’s top 10, and 4th in the Race to Dubai, but you get the feeling that a victory will kickstart his career again, particularly where majors are concerned. He’d a great chance in Turnberry to win the Open, but a 3-pputt at the last cost him a playoff spot. Every week he plays these days I expect him to win; he’s worked very hard on his short game this year and it’s really beginning to show, while his driving has long been amongst the best in the game.

Lee is one of the best Ryder Cup players Europe has produced (8 1/2pts out of 10 in the 2004 matches and 2006 matches alone), and I expect him to be Monty’s main leader on the course next year. It’s unlikely that his great friend Darren Clarke will make the team, but everyone would love to see them get their winning partnership going again.

Paul Casey: Casey has stepped up a gear in 2009. With two wins in Europe and one in the USA, he made a dramatic move up the world rankings to 3rd place, slipping back to 4th in the last few weeks. Apart from his win in the BMW, his summer hasn’t really got going, with all his best golf being played between February and May. When he won in Abu Dhabi I mentioned his putting, which was the area he struggled with in Valhalla, almost negating his value to the team. It’s now at a level where he can compete properly on the world stage. He’s another man who is re-adjusting his targets after the year he’s had, and another who’s not far off a maiden major.

Casey can be a streaky player, and it’s important for him to get his Ryder Cup campaign off to a good start; if he doesn’t qualify I’m sure he’ll be in line for a pick, but no one wants to leave it to that chance.

Perhaps most important this year was his performance at the Accenture World Matchplay. He played stunning golf, only losing in the final to Geoff Ogilvy, who was, quite simply, unbeatable that week. He’s a determined competitor, which is exactly what we’ll need in Celtic Manor. With three Ryder Cup appearances already, he should make a 4th comfortably.

Ross Fisher: It’s almost a surprise that Fisher will be a rookie next year; he already seems to have an experience and maturity of players far longer on Tour. He still only has two wins on Tour, and is without a victory in 2009, but he has shown a new ability to take on the big guns of world golf. He was in contention in the US Open and the Open Championship, and while his Open chances disappeared with an 8 halfway through the round, he actually held the rest of his round together admirably.

His good performance at the Acenture (4th) shows a liking for matchplay all-important for Ryder Cup success.

He definitely needs a win in the next few months to get his confidence high. He’s 4th in the Race to Dubai and 26th in the world, but there’s nothing like a victory to really get you going again. He’s a major champion of the future and, I’m confident, a Ryder Cup star. I expect him to qualify for the team on merit, by virtue of a couple of wins between now and then, backed up with a solid all-round year. Watch out for him this week in Germany.

Martin Kaymer: The young German was very unlucky to miss out on the Ryder Cup in Valhalla last year, winning twice on Tour and having to miss several weeks due to his mother’s death. He did spend the week with the team however, on Faldo’s invitation, which can only have left him determined to make it next year.

Back-to-back wins this summer and a top-6 in the US PGA have left him sitting on top of the Race to Dubai, although a broken foot means that he’ll be unable to defend his position until October, by which time he may have been dethroned. He still has a great chance to be Europe’s number one this year, however, and don’t be surpirsed if he wins again before Christmas, perhaps even in Dubai.

He’s a beautiful player to watch; I’ve said before that I think he’s going to be World Number One at some point in his career, although at the moment there’s a guy called Tiger who seems to like it there.Majors won’t be too far off, even if not in the next couple of years, and he should make Monty’s team on merit. He seems like the sort of guy who’ll play a lot in Europe and give due value to the Race to Dubai, which is always a positive for young players.

Rory McIlroy: Approaching the end of his second full year on Tour, McIlroy is still well in the hunt to win the Race to Dubai. He failed to perform on Friday and Saturday in Switzerland last week, but his final round 64 was a joy to watch. His putting has come on considerably this year, even since his win, and he’s loking more and more like the overall package every time he tees it up. A top-3 at Hazeltine showed how his major game has improved, and he’s going to keep challenging for the big four every year. Who knows when he’ll win his first, but once it comes, several more won’t be too far behind.

His mental game is excellent – he has a mixture of confidence and calm crucial to all great players. He held it together to win in Dubai after a terrifying near-collapse on the back nine, with Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose breathing down his neck.

He’s another player to whom the epithet “rookie” seems absurd, but the more the merrier. I have no doubt that he’ll make Monty’s team, and that it will be the first appearance in a long Ryder Cup career.

Sergio Garcia: Alright. I’ll let him on to the certain list. Sergio is such a frustrating player to watch. He has oodles of talent which he so often refuses to convert into wins. His problem has long been his putting, and I haven’t seen signs of it improing this year. When he doesn’t start sinking some, he often continues for the whole week, and wins by a distance. He hasn’t had a great season in 2009, failing to really challenge for the majors, but is still a top-10 player.

On the plus side, he’s a fantasic Ryder Cup player. It seems to be the one week when he turns on the putting, and his commitment to the the team and passion cannot be questioned. He will probably qualify for the team himself, as he always brings out a few good performances every year; with his class, he couldn’t not.

Competition is getting tougher all the time, so he will need to have a good 2010.If he didn’t make it, you’d expect him to get a pick – Monty knows the importance of Sergio to the Ryder Cup as much as anyone, having featured on 4 teams with him.

So there you are. I’ve decided that these eight men win definitely play in Wales. Am I just picking the best ranked Europeans? To be fair, they are then the best players. But no – there are guys in there who really want to make the team, who recognize its great honour and history.

Given the competition, one or two of them might miss out on automatic places, but unless their form hits a dramatic slump, I’d expect them to get the nod from the captain. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take 8 of the 9 qualifying spots.

Keep an eye on the blog – in a day or so I’ll begin to look at the players I haven’t mentioned: Does Jimenez have another Cup in him? Will McDowell and Poulter renew their gutsy partnership? Is there a new generation of Ryder Cup Spaniards in Quiros, Castano, and Larrazabal?

He Came, He Saw, He Faltered, He Bogeyed, He Hit A Decent Bunker Shot...He Conquered

Few 19-year-olds can get away with saying "Thank God I've finally got that over with", after winning their first European Tour title, passing €1.6 million in prize money, and entering the top 16 in the World rankings. However, with Rory McIlroy, it was the natural response. We all felt the same. For the last 8 months, we've all been waiting impatiently for the young Northern Irishman to enter the winner's circle, heads in hands as he came agonisingly close again. On Sunday, the agony was over.

Not, however, as soon as people thought it would be.

With 5 holes to go, McIlroy had a 6-shot lead. Now, I wasn't trying to bore people with clichés, but I honestly did mention fat ladies and their singing. I've seen people lose leads like that before, and with a chasing pack involving Henrik Stenson, Robert Karlsson, Justin Rose and Paul Casey anything could happen. And most of it did.

 The bogey on the 15th - maybe he shouldn't have gone at the flag on the tricky par-3, but I don't believe in playing defensive golf on the back nine on Sunday. It just leads to tightening up. He was striking the ball well; he had to continue the way he was. It's a bogey. It happens.

 The next bogey obviously meant things were wobbling, but the fact that it involved a gutsy 5-footer for the 5 was important. Much like Alvaro Quiros in Qatar last week, he made a bogey which would have felt like a save. 

The last bogey was just bad. 

18th tee - McIlroy's driving had been great all week, and he ripped one down last. He immediately had the advantage, as he could see what ROse decided to play, one stroke behind. In the end, they both hit poor lay-up shots. I don't care if he said it was a perfect lay-up - it wasn't. You don't want a 70-yard wedge in over water on a green sloping back towards the hazard; you want a full shot. 

In the end, he made the best up-and-down of his young career to take the title. Had Rose rolled in his 15-footer to force the playoff...well, we won't think about that. I'm worried I know what would have happened.

Of course it's nice to win a title with a stroll down the last, waving to the crowds. However, the fact that McIlroy hung in there and won it with a bunker shot and 3-footer is so much the better. That's an experience he's going to have to rely on in the future, whether he's in the same position or if he's stepped into Rose's shoes. The first win may be the hardest, but when it's even harder than it should be, it's a great extra club in the bag.

Karlsson, Casey, Stenson and Rose all showed their class once again; they'll all be picking up another win soon enough.

Frustration story of the week was Sergio Garcia. On so many he'd nail his drive, hit an iron in to within 12 feet, and miss the putt. He didn't sink a thing, and finished in the top 15. His putting has always been his weak point, occasionally getting hot when he wins a title, but if he's going to accept the burden he faces now to take a few majors, he has to sort it out. It's easy to say and very difficult to do. The only way to sort it is to hole putts, and get your confidence back.

What was the key to the win? Temperament was important on the last hole, but the difference between McIlroy this week and McIlroy for the last 16 months was his putting. I've said it before - his short putting is very good, but he didn't hole enough middle-distance putts. He did in Dubai. And once they start going in, they only get easier. 

He won't have to remember the putt he missed in the Alps in September to gift-wrap the European Masters to Jean-Francois Lucquin. He'll just remember that putt yesterday evening in the desert, to kick-start the next stage in his career.

Back To His Best

With no disrespect to double champion Richard Sterne and the excellent events he won in South Africa in December, the last couple of weeks have seen the start of the 2009 European Tour proper, at least as far as viewers are concerned.

 A stellar field assembled in Abu Dhabi, with 2008 Player of the Year Padraig Harrington joining defending champion Martin Kaymer, and Sergio Garcia making his first appearance since his victory at the inaugural Race to Dubai event in Shanghai. Miguel Angel Jimenez, Ross Fisher, and Henrik Stenson were all back in action in what was a magnificent tournament once again.

Sergio and Harrington both admitted that they weren't on top of their games coming into the week, but they certainly looked comfortable by Sunday, having secured a steady top 10 to start the calendar year.

Martin Kaymer showed his class once again, defending his title as staunchly as Mark Selby did his in the snooker Masters in Wembley this week. Unfortunately, Kaymer went the same way as Selby. He simply couldn't get things going on the back nine, until he rolled in a 30 footer on the last for an eagle to tie Louis Oosthuizen for 2nd place, one shot behind Paul Casey.

The week belonged to Casey. He played the best golf I have seen him play in a long, long time. His long game, particularly his driving is always excellent, but anyone who watched the Ryder Cup will remember that his putting left a lot to be desired in Valhalla. There was no such weakness in the desert this week, as he putted beautifully on the way to a 3rd-round 63, placing him firmly in control of the trophy.

 On Sunday, he did well to hold his nerve on the back nine after three bogeys in four holes saw him slip back to the slavering pack (no offence to Oosthuizen and Kaymer).

Ultimately, he showed his class in closing out the tournament with pars. It's not surprising that his form didn't continue into Sunday - it's very rare that a 54-hole leader by several shots shoots a better final round than his pursuers, the temptation is to play defensively. To his credit, Casey didn't do so until the bogeys crept on, having extended his lead to 6 shots by the 11th hole. Only last year, we saw Martin Kaymer drop a six shot lead in the last round to scrape over the line in similar fashion.

Casey had a solid if unremarkable season last year on Tour, with a handful of top 10s and a below-average Ryder Cup. His last win came in the same event in 2007, but with a win back under his belt there's no reason he won't go on to pick up a few more this season, and indeed challenge in the majors.

It was another fine week for Rory McIlroy, notching up his third top 5 in his last 4 events. McIlroy has had an excellent winter, with 7 top 10s in 10 starts. He's leapfrogged Northern Irish compatriot Graeme McDowell to lie at 35th in the world, and has made clear his intentions of making it into the top 20, if not the top 10, by the end of the season.

An ambitious claim? Perhaps, but the movement in the golf rankings is fairly fluid once you get below, well, No. 1. 

However, I've said it before - if McIlroy wants to get the wins he will get, he's got to hole a few more putts. He shot a great 65 on the last day at Abu Dhabi, but it was never going to be good enough, after he failed to capitalize on a good long game on Saturday. As I've written before, it's not that he's a bad putter, it's simply that he doesn't hole his share of 20-footers. When you miss one it's not a disaster, but if you look back at the round and see you haven't holed any, you won't be holding the trophy.

I'll be back in a day or two with a preview of the Qatar Masters and a word on the European Ryder Cup captaincy. 

Until then.

A Man For All Seasons

P.G. Wodehouse, in The Letter of the Law, admitted that for all its grand-sounding name, the President's Cup at the Oldest Member's club ranked somewhere between the Grandmothers' Umbrella Competition and the Infants' All-Day Sucker (open to those not yet having finished teething).

 The World Cup. Those words invoke strong emotions, whether thinking about Pickles finding the Jules Rimet Trophy in 1966, Diego annoying Terry in 1986, or, for the Irish, David O'Leary in 1990 and Ray Houghton in 1994.

 The World Cup of Golf. While this name may not curry as much favour with TV fans, it still sounds impressive. However, if you expected Adam Scott and Robert Allenby to be teeing up against Phil Mickelson and Anthony Kim, think again. You'll be watching Brandt Snedeker and Brendan Jones. Top players will play the World Cup a couple of times at the beginning, and then get on with their own game. 

And so the World Cup goes largely ignored by a large proportion of the golfing population. This year, however, we were treated to a magnificent display of golf that can only help what should be a wonderful event. Will Tiger Woods and Padraig Harrington ever play in it again? Probably not. But that doesn't mean it can't be a top-class event.

 Sergio's avoidance of the week meant a start for young Pablo Larrazabal, one of the brightest sparks on the European Tour. He teamed up with the legend that is Miguel Angel Jimenez, and they put on a display that will have the 2010 Ryder Cup Captain rubbing his hands with glee. Despite a disappointing final day, they played superb, passionate golf, and almost single-handedly made it a tournament worth watching.

 Other countries had great showings as well. Martin Kaymer and Alex Cejka were a fancied team at the beginning of the week, and lived up to the expectations until a 73 today ended their hopes. Australia shot themselves out of contention on Sunday too, but Brendan Jones and Richard Green showed themselves to be quite a pairing.

However.

During the Ryder Cup, two tall Swedish men were paired together. As European heads were in hands (mine included), the one claim I stuck to was that if you have a couple of Swedes together, it doesn't matter if they're 2 or 3 down. They'll just calmly keep on playing, won't get hassled, and will do the business.

 Henrik Stenson and Robert Karlsson are two of the best players in the world today. Karlsson has had a busy year - top 10s in three majors, two victories, eight other top 10s, and an Order of Merit title. He's played the best golf of his life throughout the spring, summer, and autumn. Time for a winter break? Not at all! Get Henrik and we'll play a few games of golf!

They played wonderful golf all week, shooting 65-67-66-63, and justifying their status as pre-tournament favourites. Admittedly, their closest challengers helped them on the final day, but they did what they did best - calmly walked around, ignoring what other guys are doing, and getting on with business.

 Of course it's a different format, but this performance only accentuates what we've been saying for the last few months - one of these boys will have a major by the next Ryder Cup.

The Race to Dubai travelled to Australia this week, and Rod Pampling and Marcus Fraser set up a playoff for the home crowds to enjoy. The experienced Rod came out on top, but Fraser certainly showed signs of wanting to build on his steady 2008 season in the New Year.

Robert Allenby let me down again with a final day 73 - he's declared an intention to play in the Race to Dubai this year, and we're delighted to have him. However, if he's going to start winning again, he's got to start holing putts to supplement his magnificent iron-play. If he'd holed a handful more putts during the last year, he'd have been a multiple winner in America.

The Race has a week off now, before heading to Leopard Creek for the Alfred Dunhill Championship, where Lee Westwood will be looking to get his campaign off to a winning start.

There is golf this week though, with the Nedbank Challenge at Sun City. Trevor Immelman is defending champion, and will be joined by 11 other top players from around the world, including Sergio, Westwood, and those two Swedes again. I think I'm going to go with Stenson for the victory - he won't want 2008 going by without a win and the World Cup will have him confident.

Apologies to those of you who have visited over the last two weeks expecting up-to-the-minute self-satisfied over-opinionated twaddle, only to find that I was holding my peace (that's a self-satisfied phrase right there). Such a delay will not occur again. In the interim, Rory McIlroy narrowly missed out on a maiden victory in a playoff to Wen-Tang Lin, but I'm confident that young McIlroy will have a win under his belt by the end of the winter (which I, being Irish, extend to at least the end of February).

All the best. Take care.