Home Comforts

For the first time in nearly 60 years, Royal Portrush is playing host to the Irish Open. Given the success of Northern Irish golfers in the last few years, expectations have never been higher for local heroes to succeed, and with over 100,000 fans expect to turn out, the 2012 Irish Open will be one to remember.

The question is, can one of the local boys do the business?


Rory McIlroy is not playing well. After missing three cuts running, he had a chance to win the St. Jude Classic before hooking a 3-wood into the water on the 72nd hole. Despite his top-10 finish, he still didn’t look in control of his ball, and the fact that he managed to stay in contention is testament to his talent. It was fairly unsurprising, however, that his bad play was found out at the U.S. Open. The Olympic Club was not a venue where you could get away with bad golf – you could barely get away with good golf – and McIlroy crashed out on Friday afternoon.

Having taken a week off following the major he is now back home, not too far from where it all began for the World Number 2. The question is, is that a help?

There’s no doubt that he will receive tremendous support from the home crowd, but the fact remains that his game does not seem ideally suited to links golf. He has produced some moments of magic, particularly at St. Andrew’s, but for a man who grew up in Northern Ireland his links game is distinctly questionable. After a disappointing finish in last year’s Open Championship, he gave a somewhat childish interview in which he didn’t seem at all inclined to try to adapt his game to links golf, stating that it’s only one week of the year. Not the attitude you want from a man tipped to conquer the golfing world.

He has moved to the United States, and plays most of his golf there now, where the clear weather, mid-20s temperatures and cultivated courses suit his undoubtedly superb game. With plenty of rain forecast for the weekend at Portrush, we might well see another cold and uninspiring performance from McIlroy.

I can’t see him missing the cut again – I reckon sheer willpower to keep the fans happy will see him through to the weekend – but he just doesn’t seem to have the control over his long game that will be necessary to contend on this tough golf course.

Prediction: 30th-40th place



I get the feeling that Graeme McDowell is pretty excited. If you ever want a golfer who loves a pressure situation, is prepared to go toe-to-toe with anyone and believes he will win every time he goes out, look no further than the 2010 U.S. Open champion. I really didn’t see him going as close as he did at the U.S. Open, but once again he showed that he can find form when he needs to. With Furyk struggling on the final day I expect McDowell to close it out, but a couple of errors ended up costing him dear. He showed his scrapping qualities throughout, right up to a gutsy birdie on the 17th and a great iron shot on the last to give him a chance of the playoff.

Everyone wants to win their home event, but I don’t think anyone is as up for it as McDowell. He’s been a big supporter of trying to get tournaments back to Portrush, and he’ll want to show everyone that he rules the roost there. We know McDowell is a great iron player and pressure putter; add to that some local knowledge and a willingness to fight all the way to the line, and I think you might just have the 2012 Irish Open champion. Expectations and pressure can overwhelm some players – Graeme McDowell seldom gets more than whelmed. I’m ready to jump back on the G-Mac bandwagon – I think he goes very close this week.

Prediction: Champion



Padraig Harrington gets an awful lot of stick for constantly looking to make changes to his swing – “you’ve won three major championships,” they cry – “Why change anything?” The fact is that that’s just the kind of player he is. He’s a technically-minded man, and is always looking to improve how he hits the ball. Those majors are due in no small part to this attribute, and when he gets back in the winner’s enclosure, it might finally silence the nay-sayers.

Certainly, anyone who’s been watching him for the last 15 months or so must accept that he’s been close to playing very well, and in the last two months alone he looks to be hitting it brilliantly. Oddly enough, the problem holding him back from winning in the last few weeks seems to be his putting from 6-15 feet – usually his strength, his stroke just looks a little bit tentative at the moment. You can’t win if you’re not holing those putts, and the quality of his performances of late just shows how good his long game is. Harrington birdied 7 of 8 holes last Saturday – that is not a very Harringtonesque performance. Where is the grinder of Carnoustie?

I don’t believe you lose as good a putting stroke as that at his age, and I’m confident he’s going to start holing them again and start winning again.

With all the focus on the Northern boys this week, you can bet your life that Harrington would love to remind them who has three majors in the cupboard, not to mention an Irish Open title. However, having played 7 of the last 8 weeks, and with three in a row taking place in California, Connecticut, and Ireland, you’d have to worry that fatigue might be beginning to set in. He’ll get a rousing reception from the crowd, and I hope he can ride that to success, but I can’t quite see him doing the business this week. Closing out a tournament isn’t easy when it’s been nearly 4 years since your last, and I think we might have to be patient and allow Harrington a few Sundays where he goes close before he brings home the bacon again. He’s still got plenty of wins left in the tank and, in my opinion, one more major.

I think tiredness might be an issue this week, but I’ve no doubt that his good form will carry him through to a strong performance once again.

Prediction: 15th - 25th place


Graeme McDowell recently reminded the world that “it’s been nearly ten months since a Northern Irishman won a major championship”. No one doubted McIlroy’s or McDowell’s rise to the top, but there were plenty of joyfully surprised fans who watched Darren Clarke lift the Claret Jug last July. Back in the day, I was convinced that Clarke would taste major success (and fairly sure that Harrington wouldn’t) but I have to admit that I had given up hope by the time the Open rolled around again last year. In absolutely foul conditions, Darren Clarke delivered, quite simply, the finest exhibition of links golf that I have ever seen. He schooled the field in how to play the course and the weather, and put the gloss on his career that it richly deserved.

Since then, Clarke’s form has been pretty poor. He spoke of struggling to set new goals for himself – given his age and achievements he seemed to be lacking the hunger necessary to contend. He’ll be as proud as anyone that the Irish Open has returned to Northern Ireland, however, and you can be sure that he’ll do his utmost to lift his game. Form isn’t his only worry – he’s been struggling with a groin problem which caused him to miss the U.S. Open two weeks ago. The word is that he’s recovering well from it, but you never know exactly how fit you are until you’re tested in tournament conditions.

I can’t see any way that Clarke will be a force in this championship, but I hope that he can find some form, and make the cut, if only to give his many fans a couple more days to watch him play.

Prediction: Missed Cut


But for a 77 on Saturday, Paul McGinley could well have been in the final shake up for the BMW Championship last week in Germany. As it was, a closing 66 left him one shot out of the playoff. He has to be disappointed with the 3rd round performance, but a third top-7 finish in four weeks is proof that McGinley is rediscovering the type of form that saw him lift the Ryder Cup three times with Europe. Without a tournament win since 2005, McGinley’s career has been steadily waning since that last Ryder Cup appearance at the K Club in 2006. Tipped by many to lead Europe in Gleneagles in 2014, the Dubliner seems to want to show the world that he’s not quite ready for the desk job yet. Always a tidy player, he’ll be looking forward to taking on what he describes as one of his favourite courses in the world and improving on his 5th place finish in Baltray in 2004.

I don’t think McGinley has what it takes to win the event, but as a man in form, he’s another prospect for the fans to get behind.

Prediction: 30th - 40th place


Supporting Cast


There are several other Irish hopefuls playing, from the bigger names of Damien McGrane and the in-form Peter Lawrie all the way to Alan Dunbar, the 23-year old Amateur who captured the British Amateur with a courageous final hole victory last week. Lawrie is the most obvious to give it a real crack, but on a links course, you never know which Irishman might just find a purple patch.


Invaders?


Outside of the Irish, here are just a few names to watch. Although Simon Dyson won his Irish Open title in Killarney, he has shown that he enjoys his links, and I would expect Dyson to put up a strong defence of his crown.

Paul Lawrie is playing his way on to his second Ryder Cup team, and if you don’t back a Carnoustie champion on a tough links course, who do you back?

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano still looks wobbly over his shorter putts, but the Spaniard has thrown in a couple of good finishes with some missed cuts. I’d expect him to be in the mix this week.

Francesco Molinari already has a win this year, and will be keen to show his game is ready for the Open Championship. As solid a ball-striker as you can get on the European Tour, look for the Italian to be in the top 10 on Sunday.

Ross Fisher is playing well again. His 2010 win in Killarney shouldn't be given too much weight as it was on a parkland course, but when he's in form, he's a very dangerous player.
Finally, Chris Wood had his chances last week, but he can temper the disappointment with a return to links. With top-5 finishes in the 2008 and 2009 Opens, and a strong showing at Baltray 3 years ago, the tall Englishman has displayed his aptitude for links golf. Back in form this season, he should contend once again.

The Final Countdown

With just hours to go before Friday morning's pairings are announced, it's time for a last look at the captains' options for the first two days.

For each of the four sets of matches over Friday and Saturday, the captains must select eight players and omit four. There's been no word from Corey Pavin as to his methods, but Colin Montgomerie has guaranteed all of his players a Friday game, wither in the fourballs or the foursomes. Since Mark James's disastrous singles collapse in 1999, I don't think we'll ever again see any player, let alone three, rested until the singles.

So who will play in the first day's matches?

For Europe, there are the obvious pairings. Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell will be first off the first tee. These great friends and great players have shown their mettle before, and I don't expect either one of them to miss a match - both will be key to European success. McIlroy may be a rookie but, like Martin Kaymer, we all know that that's a ridiculous description. He's going to be a star of the matches.

The second no-brainer is to play the Italian brothers together. Francesco and Edoardo Molinari, qualifying in such different ways, won the World Cup together in China last winter, and you have to expect them to get at least 3 of the 4 matches together. They know each other's games better than any other pairing out of either team, and their games should complement each other nicely - Francesco's steady, tee-to-green solidity, with Edoardo's fiery nature and magical putter.

You can put anyone with Martin Kaymer. I don't wish to disrespect him when I say that the man is a machine. Someone is channelling Bernhard Langer's spirit through this young man only they've picked up a better putter on the way. The rumours are that Lee Westwood will partner the US PGA champion, and no one can deny that it's a mouth-watering prospect. It would also be a clever move - no matter how well Westwood has recovered, it still stands that he's hardly played golf in six weeks, and Kaymer might be the perfect man to ease him back into the competitive zone.

I don't expect to see Peter Hanson, Miguel Angel Jimenez, or Ross Fisher in the morning matches. That leaves us with Luke Donald, Ian Poulter, and Padraig Harrington. Despite his Ryder Cup heroics, I'd leave out Poulter. He's out of form at the minute - give him a foursome match with Fisher in the afternoon, but for the moment stick Donald and Harrington together. Harrington has so much to prove in this competition, but his play in Paris last week (18 birdies in his last 36 holes) was perfect fourball play, and in steady Luke Donald Harrington would have an ideal partner.

Monty has said that all will play on Friday, but I don't imagine that he has his foursome pairings definite yet - he'll have an eye on Lee Westwood's calf and how it's holding up - if he needs to bring Jimenez or Hanson into Kaymer's team it won't cause too much hassle.

Poulter and Fisher have played World Cup together, and Poults will be anxious to continue his Ryder Cup charge.

There is no doubt about it - Europe's pairings are magnificently strong and it's tough to see any of them being beaten. They're not going to have it all their own way though, and we'll see how the American's will line up shortly.

Predicted European pairings:

Friday Fourballs:

1. Graeme McDowell & Rory McIlroy

2. Martin Kaymer & Lee Westwood

3. Luke Donald & Padraig Harrington

4. Edoardo Molinari & Francesco Molinari

Friday Foursomes:

1. Edoardo Molinari & Francesco Molinari

2. Ross Fisher & Ian Poulter

3 Peter Hanson & Miguel Angel Jimenez

4. Graeme McDowell & Rory McIlroy

Luck of the Irish

Was Padraig Harrington lucky to get a Ryder Cup wild card? Of course. But who isn't?

Let's make one thing very clear. If you want to play on the Ryder Cup team, qualify. Anyone who makes the team on merit deserves to be there. Anyone who doesn't, doesn't. Players can give out all they like about the selection process, but it's not as though it's a surprise to them at the end of the year - they knew what the situation was 12 months ago. No one ever deserves a captain's pick (although Edoardo Molinari put that maxim to a severe test on Sunday) and you can thank your lucky stars if you get the nod.

Harrington is definitely the most controversial of the three picks. Molinari showed his class, passion, and grit to win on Sunday and force Monty's hand, and Luke Donald is one of the steadiest players in the world, with a stellar Cup record. So why Harrington?

His record is poor - he didn't win a match in either of the last two outings - and he hasn't won in 2 years. Admittedly, his last two wins were back-to-back majors, but he's failed to perform since then.

Having the right Ryder Cup team involves an awful lot of balancing. A captain is given 9 players and has to decide which three other players will best make up the final team. Individual skill is important, but equally important is their ability to gel with the rest of the team, and to partner as many as possible on the team. The Molinari brothers are an ideal team, but that doesn't mean they'll never be split up.

A captain also has to look at the strengths of his team. In Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy, he has two of the best drivers in the world. Graeme McDowell and Francesco Molinari are two fantastic iron players. Martin Kaymer and Peter Hanson are calm players with steady games.

Padraig Harrington has the best short game of any European player. No doubt about it. He makes pars where bogeys look a pipe dream. He rolls in pressure 6-footers like they were tap-ins. The US team has Mickelson, the greatest wedge player in the world. It has Stricker - one of the most beautiful putters of his generation. You cannot leave out a short game of the quality of Harrington's.

Of course he needs to hit fairways and greens as well, but just look at it in a matchplay context.

Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson are going to be crashing drives past Harrington, putting an iron on the green, and then? If they sneak a few birdie putts past the hole, and this smiling, scary-eyed Irishman keeps making pars from gorse bushes, what's it going to do to them?

He will break your heart in matchplay, and that's what you need on the team.

We can't be sure that Casey, Westwood, McIlroy are going to make those clutch pars. They'll more likely make the necessary birdies. Padraig Harrington will grind like he always does - he'll frustrate the American players - not with wins, but with halves - and wear them down.

Monty got it spot on - nobody wants to play Padraig Harrington in matchplay.

Look at how those three majors came - battling back from disaster to hole the clutch putt on the 18th in Carnoustie, staring down a five-wood to 3 feet at Birkdale, and rolling in a 15-footer for par at Oakland Hills. They took character and guts. That's what you'll get at Celtic Manor.

A man who will not give up.

Ryder Cup Watch

Last September, I drew up a list of the teams I thought would face off at Celtic Manor this October for the Ryder Cup. Having found the lists in an untroubled drawer, they make interesting reading, with only 3 months of qualification left. We'll get to the Americans next week, but let's have a look at who I thought Monty would have on the first tee in Wales.

Padraig Harrington

Lee Westwood

Robert Karlsson

Henrik Stenson

Paul Casey

Ian Poulter

Graeme McDowell

Rory McIlroy

Sergio Garcia

Ross Fisher

Martin Kaymer

Alvaro Quiros

Of Nick Faldo's team, I'd decided that Justin Rose, Soren Hansen, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Oliver Wilson would fail to reappear. Despite Miguel's win in the Gulf earlier this year, I'll stick by that decision. As for my 12 players - I'm happy with most of them, but there are a couple who look a little bit wobbly. What's more, there are guys not on that list who've mounted a charge.

The most obvious absence is Luke Donald, in the light of his performances over the last few weeks. Donald has had a great season, with a few solid finishes Stateside, before returning to Europe and collecting a 2nd place and then a win. His triumph on Sunday has hopefully silenced those who doubted his killer instinct. The pressure was on after his late, late disaster in Wentworth the week before, and he proved himself up to the task. He now looks set to be on the bus to Wales in the autumn, and with a record like his (5 1/2 out of 7), Monty will be delighted.

Donald is such a steady player that he suits the format perfectly - he'll keep a foursomes game chugging along, and can be the reliable player in a fourball to allow his partner burn it up.

Donald has a 4/4 record in the foursome matches, all played with Sergio Garcia.

Sergio's the man over whom the biggest question mark floats. He's had a lousy time of it. He won in the Orient in December 2008, and since then he's fallen off the radar. His mental game's shot, and his putting's still useless. Surely that makes it easy - he won't qualify, and he doesn't deserve a pick. Not quite.

Sergio's always seemed able to turn it on in the Ryder Cup. He's brilliant in the team matches, whether with Jesper Parnevik or Luke Donald. After missing every putt for months beforehand, suddenly they all roll in. He's a firey, energetic player, and you need a couple of them in your locker room.

When he fails to qualify, there'll be a lot of chat about the picks. Can Monty afford to give him one. If he shows any form at all in the summer he'll get one - he's got a couple of majors and a WGC to go at in the last 6 weeks. Without that justification though, it'd be a brave captain to choose him.

What about the Swedes? I'm still confident Karlsson will make it - he's got a win this year and he showed in Wentworth that his game's on the mend. He needs a little more consistency, but I see him challenging strongly at the Open this year, and I think he'll qualify.

Stenson is a trickier one - he's been out of form since winning the Players last May, and he's shown no signs of coming back. Unless he mounts a charge in the summer, he ca kiss his chance goodbye.

The man who might well jump into his shoes is Wales' one shot at a home boy. Rhys Davies has showed his talent this year, with a win in Morocco and a couple of runner-up spots. He's a good ball-striker, a wonderful putter, and has the grit that'll be oh so important come Ryder Cup Sunday. The way he's playing at the moment, he might make it on merit, but he'll certainly be at the front of Monty's mind.

Apologies to Simon Dyson and Ross McGowan, but I think they'll drop off the automatic spots pretty soon. One man who won't go away so easily is Francesco Molinari - he showed his team play with big brother Edoardo in the World Cup, and both bros are pushing for spots. Francesco's playing in Wales this weekend, and I fancy him to finish at least top-5.

So there you go. Really, I've no idea of what's going to happen. If I had to cut three from my list, it'd be the Swedes and Sergio. Ross Fisher has work to do, but he strikes me as a guy who makes most of his money in the summer months.

The team's going to have a mix of talents - steady grinding, scrambling, raw talent, big hitting, and deft touches.

One thing's for sure - it'll be a team bursting with quality.

Masterclass

It's that time of year again.

It's not too much to say that when Masters week gets close, I'm like a child looking forward to Christmas. It's my favourite 4-day stretch of the year, and it never disappoints.

Whether it's players getting trapped in the azaleas and rhododendrons, the par-3 contest everyone tries desperately to lose, Sunday at the 16th, or the incredibly stilted presentation ceremony, the Masters makes golfers happy. And it's on BBC - so no ads!

This year we all know where the focus is, but all that means is that a few of our tips can slip in under the radar. The main man gave his first press conference yesterday, and the golfing world was glad to see him back.

Ok, I'm not going to say he's not going to win, because you can't say that. Let's be honest, you will never see Tiger priced at 5/1 for any tournament again, so I still say it's not a bad bet. Realistically though, no matter how good your practice is, there's no substitute for match practice, and that's where the difficulty is. On the other hand, he's not going to play unless he believes he can win. The most important thing to remember is that he's the greatest golfer in the history of the world.

Augusta is a course for horses - out of 73 Masters 15 guys have won 42 (roughly), so you can never expect the rookies to triumph (no one since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979). Looking at the rookies this year though, there's plenty of great form coming in. Bill Haas already has a win this year, and in Francesco Molinari and Charl Schwartzel are two of my outside bets. The younger Molinari's about 150/1 with the bookies, and 17/1 to register a top-10. Schwartzel posted another top-5 last week in Houston, and has really got his putter hot this year, which is what Augusta demands. At 50/1, Ernie Els's protege is great value for a punt.

Little Tim Clark has a track record here, and at 100/1 he's grossly overpriced. At 70/1 you can pick up Vijay Singh and Robert Allenby.

My favourite overall is about 22/1, and it's Retief Goosen. He's had a host of top-5s here in the past, and he's in superbly consistent form this year.

But enough about the betting tips. Masters week is there to enjoy, not to make money. Maybe I'm still bitter about Kenny Perry blowing a lead with 3 to play and costing me an 80/1 bet last year, who knows?

Keep an eye here as the week goes by; I'll be back with more musings each day.

Masters Tale of the Day

1935 - final round - 15th hole. Gene Sarazen turns to his caddy, a tall, black man known only as "Stovepipe", and asks him what he needs to win. "4 threes, Mr. Gene". In other words: eagle, par, birdie, birdie.

Sarazen takes a 4-wood, hoods the face, and hits it 235 yards. Into the hole. For an albatross 2. 3 pars later he was into a playoff with Craig Wood, which he would win.

To this day, ask any true golf fan about "the shot heard around the world".

On Top Of The World

Every year, the World Cup of golf is an event that has to prove itself. Unaided by some of the world's top players giving it the cold shoulder (no offence to Nick Watney and John Merrick, but they're not quite top of the US tree), there is a tendency to take this tournament less seriously than it deserves. This year, once again, it showed itself to be the great event that it is.

Having said that the top players don't always play, there was no lack of talent this year. McIlroy and McDowell, Karlsson and Stenson, Poulter and Fisher, Garcia and Castano....not a line up to be sniffed at. Of course, no one believes me now when I said I tipped the Italians at the beginning of the week (but I did). Both have shown themselves to be excellent players in the last few years - Francesco winning his home Open in 2006, while Edoardo picked up 3 Challenge Tour titles this season on his way to topping the rankings. Obviously the connection between them is very strong, and they've played a lot of golf together, but I really expected team golf to suit them. Francesco played superb golf in the Vivendi Trophy earlier this autumn, and all this week their excitement and passion was more visible than any other team's.

They've got a lot to do to make it into the running for next year's Ryder Cup, but Colin Montgomerie must be rubbing his hands in glee as he sees another European pairing bringing home the bacon.

They both showed a lot of bottle in the last round. While Ireland and Sweden had their struggles around the turn and early on the back nine, the Italians made their move. Three straight birdies gave them the lead, and they held on to it firmly. In any sport, there's a point in the race/match/etc where the champion ups the pace. Whether it's Haile Gebrselassie, Roger Federer, or Michael Schumacher - they sense the time is right to move up a gear and take advantage. The Molinari brothers showed their nerve in spades on the final hole. A fantastic drive from Francesco still left Edoardo with a hugely intimidating shot, and a slight push put them in trouble in the right-hand bunker. Francesco splashed out to 3 feet, and big brother held his nerve to roll it in, before leaping into the air in true Italian delight. The pressure on that bunker shot was huge, not helped by a gigantic lake behind and the Irish and Swedes breathing down their necks. Each brother played a great last shot on that hole, and next time they're in the running on Sunday afternoon, whether together or on their own, that's what will stand to them.

Ireland and Sweden. Favourites coming into the week, they'll both be remembering missed opportunities, not least at the final hole. Henrik Stenson lipped out from 40 feet to fall one shot short, before Graeme McDowell left his putt from 30 feet an agonising few inches short.

In reality, however, they failed to take their chances earlier in the round, and allowed the Italians to build a lead. 3 bogeys cost Ireland dearly, especially a miss from short range by McIlroy. The Swedes on the other hand just didn't convert birdie chances when they had them.

But to the positives. Rory and G-Mac have sold themselves as a guaranteed team for Celtic Manor in 2010, and Karlsson and Stenson are in the same boat. Karlsson has had a difficult year, battling eye injury for much of the early season and not replicating his Order of Merit-winning form of 2008. He showed good form in Japan last week to finish second (to Edoardo Molinari, ironically) and there can be no doubt that the big man is back for next year.

That finishes up 2009 for the European golfers. 2010 will begin early as always, specifically on 10th December 2009. This season has given us so many remarkable moments, whether it was Rory McIlroy hanging on in Dubai for his maiden title, Angel Cabrera snatching the Masters from the jaws of defeat, Tom Watson living a dream for a week in July, Harrington and Tiger battling through August. It's been a hell of a year, but we couldn't have asked for a better end. The Molinaris have stamped their names on world golf, and they're not going anywhere.

I'll see you next season.