Leading the Way

The world is marvelling at Northern Ireland’s success in majors. How can such a small country produce so many fine golfers? Three out of the last six major championships belong to Northern Ireland, including two U.S. Opens, that most fiercely guarded of American titles. The quality of golf course in Northern Ireland is a factor, as well as the style of game – you don’t grow up playing Royal Portrush without becoming an inventive and intelligent golfer. But let’s forget for a moment the individual players who have triumphed recently, and look at a general trend. There would seem to have been a power shift in modern golf, back across the Atlantic, for the first time in nearly a century. In the early days of the game, the Scottish dominated, up until the late 19th century, when Harry Vardon and J.H. Taylor, to name but two, brought the titles to England. By the time the 1920s had drawn to a close, however, Walter Hagen and Bobby Jones had firmly swung the needle towards America, where it would remain. Major championships were hoarded, Ryder Cups were rarely competitive, and the American dominance grew and grew. It took nearly 50 years for a European to win the U.S. Masters (the great Severiano Ballesteros) and, while that victory did lay the foundation for a fruitful period for European major winners (Nick Faldo, Bernhard Langer, Sandy Lyle, Ian Woosnam and Jose Maria Olazabal) it was difficult to say that the momentum had shifted completely. Perhaps it might have, had there not followed another barren period after these, during which the European could win Ryder Cups to beat the band, belying their lower world rankings, but could still not claim golf’s greatest honours. Then, Padraig Harrington happened. Of all of the players on Tour in the early 2000s, Harrington would not have been many’s first choice to break the major duck. No one could argue with his determination, but a host of 2nd-places was still fresh in the memory, and he had nowhere near the talent of Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia, Paul Casey and Darren Clarke. But grit and determination proved to be key. In 2007 he picked up the Open Championship. Many (particularly across the pond) spoke of this win as something of a fluke, citing the final-hole debacle. Try getting up and down from 80 yards to save a major and call it a fluke. When he successfully defended his title the following year (the first European since James Braid [1905, 1906] to do so), all they could mutter was that he was well-suited to links golf. And so Harrington deprived them of any argument by going to Oakland Hills and stealing the U.S. PGA Championship from their back garden. As he holed that 15-footer on the last to win, Ewen Murray spoke the words “Padraig Harrington joins the legends of the game”. Three major championships in the last six confirmed Harrington as a great. Since then, it is not only the Northern Irish who have triumphed. European Tour members picked up the last four majors, with Martin Kaymer citing Harrington as the man who showed them the way. Four Europeans lead the world rankings, with three of them having shared the top spot in the last year. There is no longer a fear factor in the majors. Europeans now believe they can win in any field in the world. A lot of credit must go to Harrington for this. In the same way that Seve opened the door to Augusta in 1980, Harrington has guided this new generation to the top. Of course they are brilliant golfers, many of them better than Harrington, but it was his doggedness that led to Europe believing in itself again. No more can Europe be damned with the faint praise of “being a great team” (although they still are), but unable to take the individual honours. How long will Europe hold the aces? Hopefully not too long. It’s healthy for the game to have top players from all around the world, and the game today looks like it has just that. Jason Day has shown that he’s willing to take on anyone in the final round of a major, and Charl Schwartzel is ready to take mentor Ernie Els’s place. Y.E. Yang has brought major success to Asia, and he won’t be the last. Americans will still have their say – just try and keep Dustin Johnson and Nick Watney away from the majors for much longer. As for Harrington? He’s not done yet. He heads to Killarney this week to the Irish Open, another tournament that he opened up for home winners again in 2007, but I reckon he might have had enough of other Europeans thanking him for their success. He wants another taste. And he’ll get it.

Blue Monster

Another week, and another World Golf Championship. This week the setting is the Blue Monster at Doral, for the Cadillac Championship.

Just as any preview in the last 10 years began with a look at Tiger Woods, so too does any current preview start with Martin Kaymer. The German is the best player in the world at the moment, and is justifiably the favourite for every event he plays. He lost to Luke Donald in the final of the WGC Matchplay, and was undoubtedly beaten by the better man – Donald was almost unplayable that whole week. Even in losing though, it was impossible to watch Kaymer without marvelling at the steadiness and confidence of every facet of his game – he has a classy swing, a beautiful putting stroke, and a wonderful temperament. There’s never going be the dominance of the Tiger era at World No.1 again, but Kaymer will be in and around it for a long time to come.

This week, how are his chances? Excellent. He’s the best player in the world. He also finished T-3 here last year; even when you’re the best, a liking for the course does wonders. It was his first real statement to the Americans that he was the real deal, and after his PGA success last August, he’ll be eager to add to his global tally.

Doral’s greens rank among the easiest on tour, and players are rewarded for aggressive iron play and putting. Who springs to mind? Who else but U.S. Open champion Graeme McDowell. Admittedly I tipped him last week as well, but he came good in the final round – a course record 64 giving him the perfect boost coming into this week, and a tournament where he finished T-6 last year. He’s a fantastic iron player and he makes his clutch putts. He loves the big events, and he loves winning them – only Martin Kaymer has won more tournaments (5-4) in the last 12 months. Even without the U.S. Open win, he won at Celtic Manor, Valderrama, and took out Tiger in his own backyard. G-Mac has a bundle more tournaments coming his way, some of them majors, and a couple of WGCs wouldn’t do him any harm at all.

Tiger Woods update – he says he’s making great progress with Sean Foley, and is feeling better about his game. I’m confident he will return to winning ways soon enough, but it’s unlikely to be this week. It’s always great to see him on the course though, and I look forward to watching him back in action.

Last year Doral hosted the South African show – a battle between legend Ernie Els and his protégé Charl Schwartzel. Ernie hasn’t been in great nick so far this year, but he’s won this championship twice, and despite losing in the 2^nd round in the Matchplay looked to be putting well, which is all I ever really look for – with a swing like that, you’re not going to go too far wrong.

Schwartzel is playing some great golf at the moment – he’s got a string of top-10s across the world and shot three rounds under par in the Honda last week (a feat matched by only 3 others). He’s a horses for courses man, and will have fond memories of last year. You can bet your life that Ernie will want to beat him again, but if the Big Easy’s out of the running he’ll be giving Schwartzel any help he needs.

My last player to focus on is my favourite for the last 12 months or so. Matt Kuchar has played as well as any American over the last year, winning the 2010 money list despite only picking up one victory. His consistency is incredible, helped by a great putting stroke and easy-going personality. He’s going to contend everywhere – he let a good position slip in round 3 last week at the Honda, but I’d expect him to be in the mix come Sunday afternoon this week – he finished top-10 last year and has come on leaps and bounds since then.

Who am I leaving out – Westwood, McIlroy, Stricker, Furyk, Poulter – I’ll be honest and say I don’t see them winning or, aside from Westwood, even challenging. Luke Donald is certainly a good prospect – when he gets into a run of form he rides it well. Phil Mickelson is Mr. Unpredictable this year, following his 2^nd place to Bubba with some underwhelming performances in the last few weeks. As ever, you never know what he’s going to pull out of the bag.

As you'd expect when the world's top 50 players are in action, a great week of golf is in prospect. With the Europeans growing ever stronger, don't be surprised if they make it one more at Doral.

Calm During the Storm

Having decided that Padraig Harrington's going to win the PGA Championship, it's time to have a look at the non-Irish players best placed to battle him for the Wanamaker Trophy.

Whistling Straits is long and punishing. No player is going to escape trouble this week, and the importance of a scrambling short game cannot be overstated. With 950+ bunkers, the odds are you're going to hit a few of them. By my reckoning, that must mean at least four holes are just bunker.

Not only will a razor-sharp short game be necessary, but whoever lifts that trophy is going to have to have an ice-cold nerve. When all around are losing theirs, he's going to be keeping his head. It's going to be the man who makes the tough pars that'll win this week.

No surprise that I've gone for Harrington then. Anyone who can get up and down from 70 yards to win his first major after playing the worst hole of his career has the bottle required.

So who else is able to play that calm game, and not get rattled by early errors?

Home boy Steve Stricker is definitely in that category - at 43, he's been around the block, and the major's all that's missing from his resumé. Even with a chance to go World Number 1 this week, don't expect him to get the shakes. He's also one of the best putters in the world today, and on a course where holing the 6-footers is going to be crucial he'll be in the mix.

Retief Goosen is a man who's won two majors in trying circumstances with equanimity. His putting isn't of quite the same quality as when he won in Shinnecock in 2004, but his game's picked up in the last two seasons, and he's definitely got something left in the tank. After an appalling 7 to start his 3rd round last week at Firestone, he held it together before shooting a brilliant final 65 to finish 3rd. His long game is straightforward and, in a year where Ernie Els has returned to winning at the highest level, his compatriot won't want to let the Big Easy take all the credit.

Earlier in the year, commentators were questioning whether Luke Donald had what it takes to finish off a tournament. He silenced his critics with a win in Spain, and has continued what's been an excellent season. He's got one of the tidiest swings you'll ever see, and he leads the PGA Tour in sand saves in 2010. If there was ever a man for plodding around the course and getting the job done it's Donald - when all the focus is on his fellow Englishmen Paul Casey and Justin Rose, the pressure's off Donald. The only concern I'd have is that he doesn't hit the ball all that far - but Paul McGinley managed a 6th place finish here in 2004, showing that if you're converting around the greens, you don't have to bomb it.

As for the other big guns, who knows?

Only Tiger knows where his head's at right now, and he could surprise us. I really don't think that Whistling Straits is the place to try and find your game, however, and he's going to be faced with a lot of par putts this week from 5-10 feet. Throughout the season his putting has looked average at best, and I think he's going to have to get a pick from Captain Corey if he's to make the Ryder Cup team.

Phil Mickelson revealed that he's suffering from a form of arthritis, which might contribute to his uncertain swinging in the last few events he's played. Either way, that final round at Firestone must have rattled him, and I don't see him doing the job this week. Maybe the chance to take top spot preyed on his mind, maybe not. If he gets in position he's got the experience to finish it off, but he will be punished if he's as wayward off the tee.

Hunter Mahan was supreme last weekend at Firestone, and he's a confidence player - I'd expect him to challenge. Sean O'Hair is another guy who's been fantastic for the past month or so. Aside from that, I'm going to continue to tip my players of the year, Bo Van Pelt and Matt Kuchar - I think both will feature at Celtic Manor, but a strong finish here would cement their place in Pavin's team.

I first saw Whistling Straits when it hosted the PGA in 2004. It's a unique course, transporting you from Wisconsin back to Ireland and Scotland. Whether it's the nostalgic feeling of watching the pros hacking out of dunes, or the wriggle you give on hearing that the 17th is named "Pinched Nerve", it's a fantastic venue for spectators.

It sounds like a cliché, but I have never seen a major championship that's so open. Any number of players could be in contention on Sunday, but whoever wants to win it is going to have to show some serious nerves.

Ryder Cup Watch

Last September, I drew up a list of the teams I thought would face off at Celtic Manor this October for the Ryder Cup. Having found the lists in an untroubled drawer, they make interesting reading, with only 3 months of qualification left. We'll get to the Americans next week, but let's have a look at who I thought Monty would have on the first tee in Wales.

Padraig Harrington

Lee Westwood

Robert Karlsson

Henrik Stenson

Paul Casey

Ian Poulter

Graeme McDowell

Rory McIlroy

Sergio Garcia

Ross Fisher

Martin Kaymer

Alvaro Quiros

Of Nick Faldo's team, I'd decided that Justin Rose, Soren Hansen, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Oliver Wilson would fail to reappear. Despite Miguel's win in the Gulf earlier this year, I'll stick by that decision. As for my 12 players - I'm happy with most of them, but there are a couple who look a little bit wobbly. What's more, there are guys not on that list who've mounted a charge.

The most obvious absence is Luke Donald, in the light of his performances over the last few weeks. Donald has had a great season, with a few solid finishes Stateside, before returning to Europe and collecting a 2nd place and then a win. His triumph on Sunday has hopefully silenced those who doubted his killer instinct. The pressure was on after his late, late disaster in Wentworth the week before, and he proved himself up to the task. He now looks set to be on the bus to Wales in the autumn, and with a record like his (5 1/2 out of 7), Monty will be delighted.

Donald is such a steady player that he suits the format perfectly - he'll keep a foursomes game chugging along, and can be the reliable player in a fourball to allow his partner burn it up.

Donald has a 4/4 record in the foursome matches, all played with Sergio Garcia.

Sergio's the man over whom the biggest question mark floats. He's had a lousy time of it. He won in the Orient in December 2008, and since then he's fallen off the radar. His mental game's shot, and his putting's still useless. Surely that makes it easy - he won't qualify, and he doesn't deserve a pick. Not quite.

Sergio's always seemed able to turn it on in the Ryder Cup. He's brilliant in the team matches, whether with Jesper Parnevik or Luke Donald. After missing every putt for months beforehand, suddenly they all roll in. He's a firey, energetic player, and you need a couple of them in your locker room.

When he fails to qualify, there'll be a lot of chat about the picks. Can Monty afford to give him one. If he shows any form at all in the summer he'll get one - he's got a couple of majors and a WGC to go at in the last 6 weeks. Without that justification though, it'd be a brave captain to choose him.

What about the Swedes? I'm still confident Karlsson will make it - he's got a win this year and he showed in Wentworth that his game's on the mend. He needs a little more consistency, but I see him challenging strongly at the Open this year, and I think he'll qualify.

Stenson is a trickier one - he's been out of form since winning the Players last May, and he's shown no signs of coming back. Unless he mounts a charge in the summer, he ca kiss his chance goodbye.

The man who might well jump into his shoes is Wales' one shot at a home boy. Rhys Davies has showed his talent this year, with a win in Morocco and a couple of runner-up spots. He's a good ball-striker, a wonderful putter, and has the grit that'll be oh so important come Ryder Cup Sunday. The way he's playing at the moment, he might make it on merit, but he'll certainly be at the front of Monty's mind.

Apologies to Simon Dyson and Ross McGowan, but I think they'll drop off the automatic spots pretty soon. One man who won't go away so easily is Francesco Molinari - he showed his team play with big brother Edoardo in the World Cup, and both bros are pushing for spots. Francesco's playing in Wales this weekend, and I fancy him to finish at least top-5.

So there you go. Really, I've no idea of what's going to happen. If I had to cut three from my list, it'd be the Swedes and Sergio. Ross Fisher has work to do, but he strikes me as a guy who makes most of his money in the summer months.

The team's going to have a mix of talents - steady grinding, scrambling, raw talent, big hitting, and deft touches.

One thing's for sure - it'll be a team bursting with quality.

Into The East

The PGA Tour heads to Florida for the month of March, and where better to start than PGA National?

The Honda Classic has thrown up some great winners over the years, including Padraig Harrington in 2005, for his first win across the pond. Harrington will be looking to get his game back on track after a mixed 2009, but for him, the season's only beginning.

It's a fantastic field - Westwood, Casey, Villegas, Allenby, Els, defending champion Yang, and Sergio Garcia to name but a few. There is as much talent this week as in any event so far this year, with the exception perhaps of the WGC World Matchplay.

So who'll do it?

Robert Allenby's my top pick for the week - he's playing great this year - another top-10 last week in Scottsdale boosts the stats some more. Always a great iron-player, Allenby's started to get his putting going in 2010 with a new technique, and watch out for him in all four majors this year. Even if the putter isn't too hot this week, PGA National's a ball-striker's course.

Once you hear those words, Paul Casey, Lee Westwood and Sergio Garcia instantly jump up the list. Three of the finest ball-striker's in the game have all enjoyed some success this year already, and all three think they're the next major winner.

Tim Clark's another guy who's a good bet this week - the one downside is that he's never played the course before, but the upside is his fantastic play. Little Tim's a fighter, and he's frighteningly accurate with the irons. His one weakness is his chipping, but if he hits enough greens this week I'd expect him to finish very high up.

Ernie Els needs to get a little more consistency into his game, but he's shown promise this year. He'll definitely be in the mix in a major or two, and he's won here before.

Charles Howell has had a rough run for a guy with so much talent, but another high finish last week makes me think his game could finally be coming to fruition. The Schwartzel of the US?

Long shot this week? Watch out for Scott Piercy. He had a decent finish last week at Scottsdale, and gave this event a scare last year.

For me though, this tournament is exciting for another reason. Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy are both teeing it up this week, and I'm hoping they'll get at least one round together. Europe's new young talent is a little more experienced and proven that American Fowler, but they're two guys who we'll be seeing a lot of in the coming years, and expect a few back-nine battles between them. Fowler doesn't have the same measured swing as McIlroy, being a bit more swashbuckling, but he's got a hell of a long game and a great mindset.

There are more similarities between these guys than the closeness in age and a good driver though. Check back here on Monday for a closer look at how McIlroy and Fowler square up against each other; in the meantime, watch out for them on the Sunday leaderboard.

More Than A Match For Anyone

"Don't get me wrong, I really respect every professional golfer, but I know I haven't played to my full potential and when that happens, it will be just me and Tiger."

When Ian Poulter came out with this statement in January 2008, irritated heads were shaken and indulgent smiles were smiled. It was just another wild comment from a player who had yet to show the game to back up the cockiness.

After this week's performance in the deserts of Arizona, all people are wondering is whether Tiger will be back to face him.

The top 6 in the World makes interesting reading: three Americans - Woods, Stricker, Mickelson, followed by three Englishmen - Westwood, Poulter, Casey.

Stricker, Mickelson, and Westwood are all fantastic players - don't be surprised if they pick up a couple of majors between them in the next two years, but there's something different about Poulter. He's got that fire behind his eyes, that frightening stare when he's in the zone, and that strut. He's got more self-belief than anyone on Tour, and now, he's shown the world he's got the game to match.

When asked for a turning point in Ian Poulter's career, I can pinpoint it to the minute - Sunday afternoon in Royal Birkdale, final round of the 2008 Open Championship. Poulter was playing ahead of Padraig Harrington, who would go on to win. He faced a 12-foot putt on the final green, which he had to make to stay just two shots back, and give himself any chance of staying in contention. He made the putt.

We all know what happened then - Harrington played the shot of his life on the 17th - a 5-wood to three feet to set up an eagle to allow him a canter down the home hole.

But look at it from Poulter's point of view - that putt on 18 was for him, a putt for a major championship. He piled the pressure on himself, and came up trumps. When the chips were down, he faced the music. I don't know how many more clichés I need to explain it any more clearly.

That putt told us, and more importantly him, that he had what it took. Nick Faldo put his trust in him at the Ryder Cup later that year, and he delivered. Europe lost that week, but the one image I always have is of Graeme McDowell ("G-Mac") and Poults high-fiving after beating im Furyk and Kenny Perry 1 up in the Saturday fourballs. It was terrifying. I have never seen two more pumped golfers in the one moment. It looked like they'd need a ten-mile run to calm down.

It took Poulter until November 2009 to register his next win, but he's clearly on a new road. He came so close to winning in Abu Dhabi this year only to come up a shot shy, but his performance at Tucson was magnificent. He had some tough matches - he was nip-and-tuck with Justin Leonard in the first round before prevailing on the the 19th, and he never led Thongchai Jaidee until the 17th.

In the semi-final and final, he was in a class of his own. He drove the ball superbly, hardly bothering to look where it went. His ironplay was devastating, and he's never putted like that before. He holed over 90% from 10 feet and in this week - I can only remember him missing one in the last two matches, and even that just lipped out of the cup. It was fitting that his final stroke of the week was a 10-foot putt on the 34th hole - he brushed it straight in the middle once again.

Ian Poulter has hit the afterburners, and he's not going to slow down anytime soon. The WGC titles are second only to the majors, but he won't want to be second only to anything. He's got his sights firmly set on Augusta, and don't be surprised to see him in the hunt there as well.

It would be unfair not to mention Paul Casey - he played some fantastic golf this week, and was part of one of the most amazing matches the Accenture has ever seen, when it took him 24 holes to dispatch Camilo Villegas to the consolation match. He showed his mettle on those extra holes, rolling in a couple of important 5-footers to stay in the match. In the final, he looked to get off to a flyer, stitching his second at the 2nd for a kick-in eagle, but he never got the momentum back. Twice he pegged Poulter back from 4up to just 2, but he could get no further. The match was won on two holes, for me - the 12th, where Poulter shortsided himself on the par 3, and got up and down for par, and the 15th, where Poulter stitched a tricky chip shot to two inches, leaving himself a birdie. Even before Casey's own birdie attempt slid agonisingly by, you got the feeling it was game over.

English golf was the dominant force between about 1890 and 1920, deposing the Scots from the top. Since then the Americans have been in charge. With three Englishmen in the top 6, and just seven Americans in the top 20, it looks as if that sands might be shifting once again. It won't be English dominance, but it could well be European, with so many fine young players on the up and up. Certainly, the European challenge going into every major has never been so strong.

The Ryder Cup is later this year, and Colin Montgomerie's team will be out for revenge. Yesterday's finalists will be there, you can be sure of that, and I, for one, can't wait to see those eyes of Ian Poulter staring down a putt on the 18th in Celtic Manor.

Falling Stars

Another day, another host of birdies, eagles, upsets, and all-round great matchplay golf.

Top seed Steve Stricker went out yesterday, and the favourites continued to fall today. Indeed, of the 16 players left in the field, only Paul Casey and Ian Poulter remain from the top 12 seeds at the beginning of the week. Casey continued his blistering progress with a second consecutive 5&4 win, while Poulter produced another gritty performance to defeat Adam Scott on the 17th. With Stricker, Harrington, and Robert Karlsson gone, the Bobby Jones bracket looks well set up for Poulter, and you can bet your bottom dollar he won't settle for a semi-final spot.

Defending champion Geoff Ogilvy had a unusually comfortable victory yesterday, and it clearly doesn't suit him. The Australian was outclassed by fiery Camilo Villegas, and his stellar record at this event takes a big hit. Villegas looks in the mood to rattles some cages, and will fancy his chance tomorrow against Ben Crane, who dealt with an out of sorts Y.E. Yang in round 2.

Luke Donald continues to be my fancied pick for the week - he played another glorious round to defeat Robert Allenby 6&5, and faces fellow Englishman Oliver Wilson in the third round. Wilson lost a 2-hole lead against Rory McIlroy, but held his nerve to close out the match on the 20th hole, sending home another of the pre-tournament and crowd favourites.

Lee Westwood has never had a great record in this tournament, and Nick Watney kept the US hopes alive by beating Westwood 2&1. Watney played solid golf, making 5 birdies, and Westwood never really got into the game on the back nine.

Sergio Garcia produced a great fightback to beat Anders Hansen by 2&1, but the Spaniard still looks far from convincing. Tim Clark will face him after a 3&2 win over Martin Kaymer, and I think Clark's clever game will be too much for Sergio.

Another fantastic match should be Charl chwartzel against Stewart Cink - the Open Champion came up wit another fast finish to recover from 2 down and beat Sean O'Hair, while Schwartzel played some beautiful golf to beat Jim Furyk. The young South African lost a lead on the back, but kept his composure and won 3&2. Don't be surprised if the winner of that match makes it to at least the semi-final.

It would be wrong not to mention Thongchai Jaidee, who, after beating Padraig Harrington yesterday, crushed a lack-lustre Robert Karlsson in round 2. He faces Ryo Ishikawa in the third, after the Japanese teen survived another close finish against Ross McGowan. It may not be the 3rd round we expected, but that's what matchplay's about.

The final match to finish was a clash of the titans - Ernie Els and Retief Goosen, each trying to resurrect his game and relive the glory days. It wasn't a display of great golf, but enthralling nonetheless. Nip and tuck till the finish, Els looked to have let it slip before he holed a beautiful birdie putt to take it to extra holes. Ernie had to do the same on the 19th, before Goosen played the shot of the match to set up a winning eagle on the 20th. He's not going to beat Nick Watney with golf like that though, and I'm sure he'll give himself a talking to tonight.

It's getting tough to pick winners now - we've seen enough upsets to be cautious of making any predictions, but I still can't resist. Here's my call for the 3rd round - whether I'm right or wrong, it's sure to be another great day of golf.

Jaidee to beat Ishikawa

Poulter to beat Singh

Clark to beat Sergio

Donald to beat Wilson

Watney to beat Goosen

Villegas to beat Crane

Cink to beat Schwartzel - match of the round, could go all the way

Casey to beat Gay

He's Back

In 2008, European golf was dominated by one man. It wasn't Padraig Harrington, who made the global headlines. Back at home, notching up 10 top-5 finishes before finally winning back-to-back, Swede Robert Karlsson was Mr. Consistency. 2009 was a little different - Lee Westwood took on Karlsson's job, and Karlsson injured his eye. He missed much of the season, and failed to get a rhythm going all year. Anyone who's ever seen him play golf, however, knew it wouldn't last long.

At the end of 2009 Karlsson came second to Edoardo Molinari in a Challenge Tour event in Asia, and for me that heralded his return. Since then he put in a great performance in the World Cup, and heading to Qatar last week you'd be mad to write him off. A man with a temperament and a swing like his doesn't just go away. His health is back to 100%, so start watching the majors.

Sunday's performance was vintage Karlsson. He shot 65, with 7 birdies and no bogeys. His irons, as always when he's playing well, were scarily good. As usual though, the aspect of his game which won him the title was his mind. He just does not rattle. Put Karlsson and Stenson in a Ryder Cup pairing - they may not win, but from 3 or 4 down they won't fuss. They'll just continue along calmly, being tall and talented and Swedish, and play their own game.

Lee Westwood threw all he had at Karlsson on Sunday. He made 4 birdies in 5 holes on the back, including a ticklish birdie on 14 after Karlsson had stitched his to the pin. Karlsson kept his head, and hit fairways and greens. Westwood bogeyed the 16th, and Karlsson birdied 17 and 18. If there's a man you want to put your house on with a lead coming down the stretch look no further.

It was a fine performance from Alvaro Quiros in defence of his crown. He produced three birdies on the spin to finish and grab solo second place. Quiros is one of the most exciting prospects in world golf at the moment, and he's showed he's not scared of the big stage, posting a strong showing at the US PGA last year. He's a man Monty will want in his team for Celtic Manor - he's got fire in his belly and hits it a million yards.

Westwood may have faltered at the end, but we know he's playing the best golf of his career. He's going to win a major very soon, and don't be surprised if he clocks up 4 or 5 wins on Tour this year, which is no mean feat given the talent around today.

It would be wrong not to mention Paul Casey. Coming back from injury last year has been tough for him, but he played three great rounds here before he just had one of those days. Phil Mickelson did the same last night in Torrey Pines - these things happen. Casey isn't too far of his best golf again.

The final event of the Gulf Swing is on in Dubai this week where Rory McIlroy defends the title he so nearly threw away last year, before making a great sand save at the last. There's nothing short of a phenomenal field playing, including Karlsson and Westwood. We should be in for another fantastic tournament, and before we start, I'm going to go for Karlsson - when he gets on a roll he just keeps on rolling like he'll never stop. He's eyes look keen and back to the best - I'm sure they see another victory waiting in Dubai.

Off To The Desert

And so, the European Tour bids farewell to South Africa this week and heads over to the Gulf, where it will take in Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Dubai.

One man will be disappointed to leave - Charl Schwartzel registered back-to-back wins in his homeland to give him the perfect start to the 2010 Race to Dubai. In the last edition of this blog Schwartzel was mentioned as a player who's always threatened to become a prolific winner but hasn't quite got it going. It looks like he does now. He may not have faced the strongest field in the world in Joburg last week, but nobody would have beaten him, as he raced away from the field to take a second title. Still only 25 years old, Schwartzel looks set to take on the world as the year continues. He leapt to 35th in the world after his victories and will aim to make gains in the majors and WGCs this year. He has a beautiful long game, and when he gets the putter hot, it's tough to stop him.

It was wonderful to see a resurgence from Darren Clarke in Joburg last week as well. Clarke played solid golf all week to tie for second place with local boy Keith Horne. We all know how good Darren is when he's at his best, and hopefully he can keep this form going this week. He's identified his primary goal for the year as the Ryder Cup in Wales, and he's got off to a good start. Competition is huge this year though, and he knows it - in 2008 he won twice on Tour and still failed to qualify. Always a favourite with the fans for his exciting runs of form, it would be nice to see a bit of consistency from the Ryder Cup hero. Let's be honest - we all want to see him teeing it up alongside Lee Westwood in Celtic Manor on 1st October.

This week, however, there's plenty to look forward to. Some of the biggest names in golf have decided to start their year in Abu Dhabi tomorrow, including Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Rory McIlroy, Martin Kaymer, and 2009 Race to Dubai winner Lee Westwood. Defending champion Paul Casey is also joined by Australian Geoff Ogilvy, who won the SBS Championship in the States to kick off his 2010. It's a first appearance in Abu Dhabi for the relaxed Aussie, but that doesn't matter - he'll just smile and make some birdies.

Casey had quite the year last year - he produced the best golf I've ever seen him play to win this event, including phenomenal putting, before he won again at Wentworth and on the PGA Tour. Having risen to World Number 3, he then suffered a rib injury to miss some time later on, and he never recovered his early form. No one can doubt that he's now a major player though, and if he putts like he did last year, he'll win.

Westwood, McIlroy and Kaymer are all going to make noise this year. No majors between them yet - check in 5 years time and they might have 10. Westwood has moved to another level of golf, beyond that he reached in 2000, despite his No. 4 rank at the time. He's more mature, more focussed, and has one of the best games in the world. He's going to win at least 3 or 4 this year, and don't be surprised if one of them's at Augusta.

McIlroy and Kaymer are two incredible talents - both future No. 1s, and in my mind definites for Celtic Manor, they too should grab a few victories this season, and they're close to majors. They're both calm, confident, and have an awesome game. If you want to know the leaders of European golf in 2020, there's my prediction (and who'll remember if I'm wrong?). They might let Ross Fisher in as well.

As for a couple of lower-profile picks, watch Louis Oosthuizen (2nd last year), Danny Willett (plenty to come from him this year) and Soren Kjeldsen (don't rule him out of a Ryder Cup berth).

The Gulf swing never fails to disappoint, and in a Ryder Cup year, every European wants to get off the marks early. Expect some low rounds - there're birdies to be had.

The Race Is On

Every year it gets tougher to pick who’ll be on the Ryder Cup team. More and more new stars are born each year, and the old faces aren’t going away. It’s hard to believe that Karlsson and Stenson were rookies on the team in 2006, and, as we’ll see, our rookies next year could be among some of the world’s top players.

This blog will look at a few of the golfers who I regard as near certainties to make the team, while the next few will look at possible qualifiers and noteworthy absentees.

Padraig Harrington: After a troubling first half of the year, including missing 5 cuts in a row, he found his form again at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational. The collapse there and at the US PGA the following week will remain with us for some time, but the important fact was that his new swing has settled, and he’s playing the best golf of his life. A double bogey on the back nine on Sunday also caused him to lose out in the Barclays, but he’s one of the mentally toughest player on Tour, and I expect him to win again very soon.

There’s no question over his qualification for Celtic Manor, and I expect him to top the list. He didn’t have a great time in Valhalla, but he was suffering from a stomach bug at the time. Only Tiger can hold a candle to him in terms of pressure putting, and he’s going to be a lynch-pin of Monty’s team.

Henrik Stenson: The big-hitting Swede has seemed to be a bit quieter this year, despite having the biggest win of his career at Sawgrass in May. He had a few top-5s at the beginning of the year, but since the Players hasn’t really threatened again. He finished in the top 15 of the last 3 majors, showing that he gets his game going for the big occasions. He’s still ranked 6 in the world, and there are no signs of his going away. Expect him to pick up at least one win before the year is out, quite possibly in Cologne this week. He’s played in two Ryder Cups already, and his calm under pressure has been crucial to the team. Stenson is still improving all the time – the Players was a big step in his career, and a win like that can take some adjusting to. He’s going to have a major victory in the next 2 years, and he shouldn’t have any trouble qualifying for Wales.

Lee Westwood: Westwood needs a win. He hasn’t won in just under two years, and the pressure keeps building. He’s still in the world’s top 10, and 4th in the Race to Dubai, but you get the feeling that a victory will kickstart his career again, particularly where majors are concerned. He’d a great chance in Turnberry to win the Open, but a 3-pputt at the last cost him a playoff spot. Every week he plays these days I expect him to win; he’s worked very hard on his short game this year and it’s really beginning to show, while his driving has long been amongst the best in the game.

Lee is one of the best Ryder Cup players Europe has produced (8 1/2pts out of 10 in the 2004 matches and 2006 matches alone), and I expect him to be Monty’s main leader on the course next year. It’s unlikely that his great friend Darren Clarke will make the team, but everyone would love to see them get their winning partnership going again.

Paul Casey: Casey has stepped up a gear in 2009. With two wins in Europe and one in the USA, he made a dramatic move up the world rankings to 3rd place, slipping back to 4th in the last few weeks. Apart from his win in the BMW, his summer hasn’t really got going, with all his best golf being played between February and May. When he won in Abu Dhabi I mentioned his putting, which was the area he struggled with in Valhalla, almost negating his value to the team. It’s now at a level where he can compete properly on the world stage. He’s another man who is re-adjusting his targets after the year he’s had, and another who’s not far off a maiden major.

Casey can be a streaky player, and it’s important for him to get his Ryder Cup campaign off to a good start; if he doesn’t qualify I’m sure he’ll be in line for a pick, but no one wants to leave it to that chance.

Perhaps most important this year was his performance at the Accenture World Matchplay. He played stunning golf, only losing in the final to Geoff Ogilvy, who was, quite simply, unbeatable that week. He’s a determined competitor, which is exactly what we’ll need in Celtic Manor. With three Ryder Cup appearances already, he should make a 4th comfortably.

Ross Fisher: It’s almost a surprise that Fisher will be a rookie next year; he already seems to have an experience and maturity of players far longer on Tour. He still only has two wins on Tour, and is without a victory in 2009, but he has shown a new ability to take on the big guns of world golf. He was in contention in the US Open and the Open Championship, and while his Open chances disappeared with an 8 halfway through the round, he actually held the rest of his round together admirably.

His good performance at the Acenture (4th) shows a liking for matchplay all-important for Ryder Cup success.

He definitely needs a win in the next few months to get his confidence high. He’s 4th in the Race to Dubai and 26th in the world, but there’s nothing like a victory to really get you going again. He’s a major champion of the future and, I’m confident, a Ryder Cup star. I expect him to qualify for the team on merit, by virtue of a couple of wins between now and then, backed up with a solid all-round year. Watch out for him this week in Germany.

Martin Kaymer: The young German was very unlucky to miss out on the Ryder Cup in Valhalla last year, winning twice on Tour and having to miss several weeks due to his mother’s death. He did spend the week with the team however, on Faldo’s invitation, which can only have left him determined to make it next year.

Back-to-back wins this summer and a top-6 in the US PGA have left him sitting on top of the Race to Dubai, although a broken foot means that he’ll be unable to defend his position until October, by which time he may have been dethroned. He still has a great chance to be Europe’s number one this year, however, and don’t be surpirsed if he wins again before Christmas, perhaps even in Dubai.

He’s a beautiful player to watch; I’ve said before that I think he’s going to be World Number One at some point in his career, although at the moment there’s a guy called Tiger who seems to like it there.Majors won’t be too far off, even if not in the next couple of years, and he should make Monty’s team on merit. He seems like the sort of guy who’ll play a lot in Europe and give due value to the Race to Dubai, which is always a positive for young players.

Rory McIlroy: Approaching the end of his second full year on Tour, McIlroy is still well in the hunt to win the Race to Dubai. He failed to perform on Friday and Saturday in Switzerland last week, but his final round 64 was a joy to watch. His putting has come on considerably this year, even since his win, and he’s loking more and more like the overall package every time he tees it up. A top-3 at Hazeltine showed how his major game has improved, and he’s going to keep challenging for the big four every year. Who knows when he’ll win his first, but once it comes, several more won’t be too far behind.

His mental game is excellent – he has a mixture of confidence and calm crucial to all great players. He held it together to win in Dubai after a terrifying near-collapse on the back nine, with Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose breathing down his neck.

He’s another player to whom the epithet “rookie” seems absurd, but the more the merrier. I have no doubt that he’ll make Monty’s team, and that it will be the first appearance in a long Ryder Cup career.

Sergio Garcia: Alright. I’ll let him on to the certain list. Sergio is such a frustrating player to watch. He has oodles of talent which he so often refuses to convert into wins. His problem has long been his putting, and I haven’t seen signs of it improing this year. When he doesn’t start sinking some, he often continues for the whole week, and wins by a distance. He hasn’t had a great season in 2009, failing to really challenge for the majors, but is still a top-10 player.

On the plus side, he’s a fantasic Ryder Cup player. It seems to be the one week when he turns on the putting, and his commitment to the the team and passion cannot be questioned. He will probably qualify for the team himself, as he always brings out a few good performances every year; with his class, he couldn’t not.

Competition is getting tougher all the time, so he will need to have a good 2010.If he didn’t make it, you’d expect him to get a pick – Monty knows the importance of Sergio to the Ryder Cup as much as anyone, having featured on 4 teams with him.

So there you are. I’ve decided that these eight men win definitely play in Wales. Am I just picking the best ranked Europeans? To be fair, they are then the best players. But no – there are guys in there who really want to make the team, who recognize its great honour and history.

Given the competition, one or two of them might miss out on automatic places, but unless their form hits a dramatic slump, I’d expect them to get the nod from the captain. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take 8 of the 9 qualifying spots.

Keep an eye on the blog – in a day or so I’ll begin to look at the players I haven’t mentioned: Does Jimenez have another Cup in him? Will McDowell and Poulter renew their gutsy partnership? Is there a new generation of Ryder Cup Spaniards in Quiros, Castano, and Larrazabal?

He Came, He Saw, He Faltered, He Bogeyed, He Hit A Decent Bunker Shot...He Conquered

Few 19-year-olds can get away with saying "Thank God I've finally got that over with", after winning their first European Tour title, passing €1.6 million in prize money, and entering the top 16 in the World rankings. However, with Rory McIlroy, it was the natural response. We all felt the same. For the last 8 months, we've all been waiting impatiently for the young Northern Irishman to enter the winner's circle, heads in hands as he came agonisingly close again. On Sunday, the agony was over.

Not, however, as soon as people thought it would be.

With 5 holes to go, McIlroy had a 6-shot lead. Now, I wasn't trying to bore people with clichés, but I honestly did mention fat ladies and their singing. I've seen people lose leads like that before, and with a chasing pack involving Henrik Stenson, Robert Karlsson, Justin Rose and Paul Casey anything could happen. And most of it did.

 The bogey on the 15th - maybe he shouldn't have gone at the flag on the tricky par-3, but I don't believe in playing defensive golf on the back nine on Sunday. It just leads to tightening up. He was striking the ball well; he had to continue the way he was. It's a bogey. It happens.

 The next bogey obviously meant things were wobbling, but the fact that it involved a gutsy 5-footer for the 5 was important. Much like Alvaro Quiros in Qatar last week, he made a bogey which would have felt like a save. 

The last bogey was just bad. 

18th tee - McIlroy's driving had been great all week, and he ripped one down last. He immediately had the advantage, as he could see what ROse decided to play, one stroke behind. In the end, they both hit poor lay-up shots. I don't care if he said it was a perfect lay-up - it wasn't. You don't want a 70-yard wedge in over water on a green sloping back towards the hazard; you want a full shot. 

In the end, he made the best up-and-down of his young career to take the title. Had Rose rolled in his 15-footer to force the playoff...well, we won't think about that. I'm worried I know what would have happened.

Of course it's nice to win a title with a stroll down the last, waving to the crowds. However, the fact that McIlroy hung in there and won it with a bunker shot and 3-footer is so much the better. That's an experience he's going to have to rely on in the future, whether he's in the same position or if he's stepped into Rose's shoes. The first win may be the hardest, but when it's even harder than it should be, it's a great extra club in the bag.

Karlsson, Casey, Stenson and Rose all showed their class once again; they'll all be picking up another win soon enough.

Frustration story of the week was Sergio Garcia. On so many he'd nail his drive, hit an iron in to within 12 feet, and miss the putt. He didn't sink a thing, and finished in the top 15. His putting has always been his weak point, occasionally getting hot when he wins a title, but if he's going to accept the burden he faces now to take a few majors, he has to sort it out. It's easy to say and very difficult to do. The only way to sort it is to hole putts, and get your confidence back.

What was the key to the win? Temperament was important on the last hole, but the difference between McIlroy this week and McIlroy for the last 16 months was his putting. I've said it before - his short putting is very good, but he didn't hole enough middle-distance putts. He did in Dubai. And once they start going in, they only get easier. 

He won't have to remember the putt he missed in the Alps in September to gift-wrap the European Masters to Jean-Francois Lucquin. He'll just remember that putt yesterday evening in the desert, to kick-start the next stage in his career.

Back To His Best

With no disrespect to double champion Richard Sterne and the excellent events he won in South Africa in December, the last couple of weeks have seen the start of the 2009 European Tour proper, at least as far as viewers are concerned.

 A stellar field assembled in Abu Dhabi, with 2008 Player of the Year Padraig Harrington joining defending champion Martin Kaymer, and Sergio Garcia making his first appearance since his victory at the inaugural Race to Dubai event in Shanghai. Miguel Angel Jimenez, Ross Fisher, and Henrik Stenson were all back in action in what was a magnificent tournament once again.

Sergio and Harrington both admitted that they weren't on top of their games coming into the week, but they certainly looked comfortable by Sunday, having secured a steady top 10 to start the calendar year.

Martin Kaymer showed his class once again, defending his title as staunchly as Mark Selby did his in the snooker Masters in Wembley this week. Unfortunately, Kaymer went the same way as Selby. He simply couldn't get things going on the back nine, until he rolled in a 30 footer on the last for an eagle to tie Louis Oosthuizen for 2nd place, one shot behind Paul Casey.

The week belonged to Casey. He played the best golf I have seen him play in a long, long time. His long game, particularly his driving is always excellent, but anyone who watched the Ryder Cup will remember that his putting left a lot to be desired in Valhalla. There was no such weakness in the desert this week, as he putted beautifully on the way to a 3rd-round 63, placing him firmly in control of the trophy.

 On Sunday, he did well to hold his nerve on the back nine after three bogeys in four holes saw him slip back to the slavering pack (no offence to Oosthuizen and Kaymer).

Ultimately, he showed his class in closing out the tournament with pars. It's not surprising that his form didn't continue into Sunday - it's very rare that a 54-hole leader by several shots shoots a better final round than his pursuers, the temptation is to play defensively. To his credit, Casey didn't do so until the bogeys crept on, having extended his lead to 6 shots by the 11th hole. Only last year, we saw Martin Kaymer drop a six shot lead in the last round to scrape over the line in similar fashion.

Casey had a solid if unremarkable season last year on Tour, with a handful of top 10s and a below-average Ryder Cup. His last win came in the same event in 2007, but with a win back under his belt there's no reason he won't go on to pick up a few more this season, and indeed challenge in the majors.

It was another fine week for Rory McIlroy, notching up his third top 5 in his last 4 events. McIlroy has had an excellent winter, with 7 top 10s in 10 starts. He's leapfrogged Northern Irish compatriot Graeme McDowell to lie at 35th in the world, and has made clear his intentions of making it into the top 20, if not the top 10, by the end of the season.

An ambitious claim? Perhaps, but the movement in the golf rankings is fairly fluid once you get below, well, No. 1. 

However, I've said it before - if McIlroy wants to get the wins he will get, he's got to hole a few more putts. He shot a great 65 on the last day at Abu Dhabi, but it was never going to be good enough, after he failed to capitalize on a good long game on Saturday. As I've written before, it's not that he's a bad putter, it's simply that he doesn't hole his share of 20-footers. When you miss one it's not a disaster, but if you look back at the round and see you haven't holed any, you won't be holding the trophy.

I'll be back in a day or two with a preview of the Qatar Masters and a word on the European Ryder Cup captaincy. 

Until then.