Home Comforts

For the first time in nearly 60 years, Royal Portrush is playing host to the Irish Open. Given the success of Northern Irish golfers in the last few years, expectations have never been higher for local heroes to succeed, and with over 100,000 fans expect to turn out, the 2012 Irish Open will be one to remember.

The question is, can one of the local boys do the business?


Rory McIlroy is not playing well. After missing three cuts running, he had a chance to win the St. Jude Classic before hooking a 3-wood into the water on the 72nd hole. Despite his top-10 finish, he still didn’t look in control of his ball, and the fact that he managed to stay in contention is testament to his talent. It was fairly unsurprising, however, that his bad play was found out at the U.S. Open. The Olympic Club was not a venue where you could get away with bad golf – you could barely get away with good golf – and McIlroy crashed out on Friday afternoon.

Having taken a week off following the major he is now back home, not too far from where it all began for the World Number 2. The question is, is that a help?

There’s no doubt that he will receive tremendous support from the home crowd, but the fact remains that his game does not seem ideally suited to links golf. He has produced some moments of magic, particularly at St. Andrew’s, but for a man who grew up in Northern Ireland his links game is distinctly questionable. After a disappointing finish in last year’s Open Championship, he gave a somewhat childish interview in which he didn’t seem at all inclined to try to adapt his game to links golf, stating that it’s only one week of the year. Not the attitude you want from a man tipped to conquer the golfing world.

He has moved to the United States, and plays most of his golf there now, where the clear weather, mid-20s temperatures and cultivated courses suit his undoubtedly superb game. With plenty of rain forecast for the weekend at Portrush, we might well see another cold and uninspiring performance from McIlroy.

I can’t see him missing the cut again – I reckon sheer willpower to keep the fans happy will see him through to the weekend – but he just doesn’t seem to have the control over his long game that will be necessary to contend on this tough golf course.

Prediction: 30th-40th place



I get the feeling that Graeme McDowell is pretty excited. If you ever want a golfer who loves a pressure situation, is prepared to go toe-to-toe with anyone and believes he will win every time he goes out, look no further than the 2010 U.S. Open champion. I really didn’t see him going as close as he did at the U.S. Open, but once again he showed that he can find form when he needs to. With Furyk struggling on the final day I expect McDowell to close it out, but a couple of errors ended up costing him dear. He showed his scrapping qualities throughout, right up to a gutsy birdie on the 17th and a great iron shot on the last to give him a chance of the playoff.

Everyone wants to win their home event, but I don’t think anyone is as up for it as McDowell. He’s been a big supporter of trying to get tournaments back to Portrush, and he’ll want to show everyone that he rules the roost there. We know McDowell is a great iron player and pressure putter; add to that some local knowledge and a willingness to fight all the way to the line, and I think you might just have the 2012 Irish Open champion. Expectations and pressure can overwhelm some players – Graeme McDowell seldom gets more than whelmed. I’m ready to jump back on the G-Mac bandwagon – I think he goes very close this week.

Prediction: Champion



Padraig Harrington gets an awful lot of stick for constantly looking to make changes to his swing – “you’ve won three major championships,” they cry – “Why change anything?” The fact is that that’s just the kind of player he is. He’s a technically-minded man, and is always looking to improve how he hits the ball. Those majors are due in no small part to this attribute, and when he gets back in the winner’s enclosure, it might finally silence the nay-sayers.

Certainly, anyone who’s been watching him for the last 15 months or so must accept that he’s been close to playing very well, and in the last two months alone he looks to be hitting it brilliantly. Oddly enough, the problem holding him back from winning in the last few weeks seems to be his putting from 6-15 feet – usually his strength, his stroke just looks a little bit tentative at the moment. You can’t win if you’re not holing those putts, and the quality of his performances of late just shows how good his long game is. Harrington birdied 7 of 8 holes last Saturday – that is not a very Harringtonesque performance. Where is the grinder of Carnoustie?

I don’t believe you lose as good a putting stroke as that at his age, and I’m confident he’s going to start holing them again and start winning again.

With all the focus on the Northern boys this week, you can bet your life that Harrington would love to remind them who has three majors in the cupboard, not to mention an Irish Open title. However, having played 7 of the last 8 weeks, and with three in a row taking place in California, Connecticut, and Ireland, you’d have to worry that fatigue might be beginning to set in. He’ll get a rousing reception from the crowd, and I hope he can ride that to success, but I can’t quite see him doing the business this week. Closing out a tournament isn’t easy when it’s been nearly 4 years since your last, and I think we might have to be patient and allow Harrington a few Sundays where he goes close before he brings home the bacon again. He’s still got plenty of wins left in the tank and, in my opinion, one more major.

I think tiredness might be an issue this week, but I’ve no doubt that his good form will carry him through to a strong performance once again.

Prediction: 15th - 25th place


Graeme McDowell recently reminded the world that “it’s been nearly ten months since a Northern Irishman won a major championship”. No one doubted McIlroy’s or McDowell’s rise to the top, but there were plenty of joyfully surprised fans who watched Darren Clarke lift the Claret Jug last July. Back in the day, I was convinced that Clarke would taste major success (and fairly sure that Harrington wouldn’t) but I have to admit that I had given up hope by the time the Open rolled around again last year. In absolutely foul conditions, Darren Clarke delivered, quite simply, the finest exhibition of links golf that I have ever seen. He schooled the field in how to play the course and the weather, and put the gloss on his career that it richly deserved.

Since then, Clarke’s form has been pretty poor. He spoke of struggling to set new goals for himself – given his age and achievements he seemed to be lacking the hunger necessary to contend. He’ll be as proud as anyone that the Irish Open has returned to Northern Ireland, however, and you can be sure that he’ll do his utmost to lift his game. Form isn’t his only worry – he’s been struggling with a groin problem which caused him to miss the U.S. Open two weeks ago. The word is that he’s recovering well from it, but you never know exactly how fit you are until you’re tested in tournament conditions.

I can’t see any way that Clarke will be a force in this championship, but I hope that he can find some form, and make the cut, if only to give his many fans a couple more days to watch him play.

Prediction: Missed Cut


But for a 77 on Saturday, Paul McGinley could well have been in the final shake up for the BMW Championship last week in Germany. As it was, a closing 66 left him one shot out of the playoff. He has to be disappointed with the 3rd round performance, but a third top-7 finish in four weeks is proof that McGinley is rediscovering the type of form that saw him lift the Ryder Cup three times with Europe. Without a tournament win since 2005, McGinley’s career has been steadily waning since that last Ryder Cup appearance at the K Club in 2006. Tipped by many to lead Europe in Gleneagles in 2014, the Dubliner seems to want to show the world that he’s not quite ready for the desk job yet. Always a tidy player, he’ll be looking forward to taking on what he describes as one of his favourite courses in the world and improving on his 5th place finish in Baltray in 2004.

I don’t think McGinley has what it takes to win the event, but as a man in form, he’s another prospect for the fans to get behind.

Prediction: 30th - 40th place


Supporting Cast


There are several other Irish hopefuls playing, from the bigger names of Damien McGrane and the in-form Peter Lawrie all the way to Alan Dunbar, the 23-year old Amateur who captured the British Amateur with a courageous final hole victory last week. Lawrie is the most obvious to give it a real crack, but on a links course, you never know which Irishman might just find a purple patch.


Invaders?


Outside of the Irish, here are just a few names to watch. Although Simon Dyson won his Irish Open title in Killarney, he has shown that he enjoys his links, and I would expect Dyson to put up a strong defence of his crown.

Paul Lawrie is playing his way on to his second Ryder Cup team, and if you don’t back a Carnoustie champion on a tough links course, who do you back?

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano still looks wobbly over his shorter putts, but the Spaniard has thrown in a couple of good finishes with some missed cuts. I’d expect him to be in the mix this week.

Francesco Molinari already has a win this year, and will be keen to show his game is ready for the Open Championship. As solid a ball-striker as you can get on the European Tour, look for the Italian to be in the top 10 on Sunday.

Ross Fisher is playing well again. His 2010 win in Killarney shouldn't be given too much weight as it was on a parkland course, but when he's in form, he's a very dangerous player.
Finally, Chris Wood had his chances last week, but he can temper the disappointment with a return to links. With top-5 finishes in the 2008 and 2009 Opens, and a strong showing at Baltray 3 years ago, the tall Englishman has displayed his aptitude for links golf. Back in form this season, he should contend once again.

To Pick Or Not To Pick?

Although never viewed with the same awe as the Ryder Cup, for those who play the President's Cup it is a highlight of the year. It allows international players the chance to experience something of that team golf feel that the Ryder Cup split denies them. One of the great shames in golf is that legends such as Gary Player, Peter Thomson, Bobby Locke, Ernie Els and Vijay Singh never played a Ryder Cup, and for the new generation - Jason Day, Adam Scott, Charl Schwartzel - the same applies. Two greats will face off as captains this year, with Fred Couples and Greg Norman taking the reigns.

The big story of the match so far is Fred Couples' selection of Tiger Woods as one of his two wildcards picks, which he both decided and announced publicly several weeks in advance of the due date. Both the pick and its manner drew much criticism, not only from the media, but also from Couples' own team, with senior man Phil Mickelson protesting on behalf of 2011 U.S. PGA winner Keegan Bradley, who can count himself unlucky to miss out on a seat on the plane to Australia.

Bill Haas took Couples' second pick, and after a playoff FedEx win which involved two incredible par saves before taking it at the 3rd hole, it's tough to say he doesn't deserve it.

What about Tiger? Can Couples justify picking a man in such poor form, who hasn't been playing much golf? The arguments against are obvious. Since that famous car crash in 2009, shortly after the last edition of the President's Cup, he has shown little form at all, his best finishes coming through a couple of hard-fought major top-10s. Respect amongst his peers is not what it was, and he has certainly lost the aura that he had when winning 14 majors. As players like Day, Schwartzel and Graeme McDowell have shown, youngsters today are no longer afraid to take him on down the stretch.

So why do Fred Couples and I think he should be on the team?

He is the greatest player of the generation, and arguably the greatest player of all time. No one has exerted the dominance over quality opposition in the same way as Woods. While that dominance may be at an end, he showed flashes of brilliance over the last year that tells us that he is not yet done. Matchplay is the perfect format for Tiger at the moment - he can afford a couple of errors as long as he can come back strongly, and no one has a mental approach like him.

He took the maximum 5/5 points from his last President's Cup appearance, when he played the four team games with Steve Stricker, and there is no doubt that the U.S. have finally found the perfect partner. Corey Pavin kept the partnership together at Celtic Manor last year, and was rewarded with Tiger returning 3 points from 4.

That Ryder Cup appearance came after the revelations, after his slump in form, after that disastrous performance at Firestone; the lowest point of his playing career. In the team scenario, he was able to pull himself together and build a telling partnership with Stricker, before taking out Miguel Angel Jimenez in the singles. Couples is banking on a similar performance in Melbourne - it is a strange reversal of the days where those said that Tiger couldn't play good team golf, that singles was where he belonged - a good dose of team golf might be just what he needs.

We all know that Tiger is not what he once was. We all know that an era is over. We disagree on his future - I remain convinced that he has another green jacket with his name on it, and maybe some of the other top prizes as well. The imminent drop out of the top-50 in the world should not be seen as too diabolical an omen - he will be back. To what degree, not even he knows. But he will be back, and this vote of confidence from Fred Couples might be just the fillip to get him going again.

One more reason to pick him? Who can wait now for the President's Cup?

Leading the Way

The world is marvelling at Northern Ireland’s success in majors. How can such a small country produce so many fine golfers? Three out of the last six major championships belong to Northern Ireland, including two U.S. Opens, that most fiercely guarded of American titles. The quality of golf course in Northern Ireland is a factor, as well as the style of game – you don’t grow up playing Royal Portrush without becoming an inventive and intelligent golfer. But let’s forget for a moment the individual players who have triumphed recently, and look at a general trend. There would seem to have been a power shift in modern golf, back across the Atlantic, for the first time in nearly a century. In the early days of the game, the Scottish dominated, up until the late 19th century, when Harry Vardon and J.H. Taylor, to name but two, brought the titles to England. By the time the 1920s had drawn to a close, however, Walter Hagen and Bobby Jones had firmly swung the needle towards America, where it would remain. Major championships were hoarded, Ryder Cups were rarely competitive, and the American dominance grew and grew. It took nearly 50 years for a European to win the U.S. Masters (the great Severiano Ballesteros) and, while that victory did lay the foundation for a fruitful period for European major winners (Nick Faldo, Bernhard Langer, Sandy Lyle, Ian Woosnam and Jose Maria Olazabal) it was difficult to say that the momentum had shifted completely. Perhaps it might have, had there not followed another barren period after these, during which the European could win Ryder Cups to beat the band, belying their lower world rankings, but could still not claim golf’s greatest honours. Then, Padraig Harrington happened. Of all of the players on Tour in the early 2000s, Harrington would not have been many’s first choice to break the major duck. No one could argue with his determination, but a host of 2nd-places was still fresh in the memory, and he had nowhere near the talent of Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia, Paul Casey and Darren Clarke. But grit and determination proved to be key. In 2007 he picked up the Open Championship. Many (particularly across the pond) spoke of this win as something of a fluke, citing the final-hole debacle. Try getting up and down from 80 yards to save a major and call it a fluke. When he successfully defended his title the following year (the first European since James Braid [1905, 1906] to do so), all they could mutter was that he was well-suited to links golf. And so Harrington deprived them of any argument by going to Oakland Hills and stealing the U.S. PGA Championship from their back garden. As he holed that 15-footer on the last to win, Ewen Murray spoke the words “Padraig Harrington joins the legends of the game”. Three major championships in the last six confirmed Harrington as a great. Since then, it is not only the Northern Irish who have triumphed. European Tour members picked up the last four majors, with Martin Kaymer citing Harrington as the man who showed them the way. Four Europeans lead the world rankings, with three of them having shared the top spot in the last year. There is no longer a fear factor in the majors. Europeans now believe they can win in any field in the world. A lot of credit must go to Harrington for this. In the same way that Seve opened the door to Augusta in 1980, Harrington has guided this new generation to the top. Of course they are brilliant golfers, many of them better than Harrington, but it was his doggedness that led to Europe believing in itself again. No more can Europe be damned with the faint praise of “being a great team” (although they still are), but unable to take the individual honours. How long will Europe hold the aces? Hopefully not too long. It’s healthy for the game to have top players from all around the world, and the game today looks like it has just that. Jason Day has shown that he’s willing to take on anyone in the final round of a major, and Charl Schwartzel is ready to take mentor Ernie Els’s place. Y.E. Yang has brought major success to Asia, and he won’t be the last. Americans will still have their say – just try and keep Dustin Johnson and Nick Watney away from the majors for much longer. As for Harrington? He’s not done yet. He heads to Killarney this week to the Irish Open, another tournament that he opened up for home winners again in 2007, but I reckon he might have had enough of other Europeans thanking him for their success. He wants another taste. And he’ll get it.

Who's Got It?

Yesterday’s stat-attack (see below) threw up a few familiar names in the run-up to the U.S. Open – steady players like Luke Donald, Steve Stricker, and Matt Kuchar all featured strongly, while former major winners Geoff Ogilvy, Zach Johnson, and Retief Goosen had respectable showings as well. Stats aside though, who fits the mould to win at Congressional and who just isn’t ready yet?

What do you need to win? Fairways and greens, really solid putting, good scrambling, and, above all, a seriously cool head.

I’m going to start with my number one pick this week – Steve Stricker. Certainly one of the best players never to have won a major, the veteran American only hit his real form after turning 40, and is showing no signs of slowing down any time soon. He’s registered a few top-10s in the U.S. Open before, but it’s only in the last few years that he’s looked the real deal. A relatively slow start to the season was put to bed with a win at Jack Nicklaus’s Memorial Tournament two weeks ago, a course which it was claimed would not set up well for Stricker.

So does he fit the U.S. Open? He’s one of the steadiest players on Tour – you won’t find anyone with a cooler head than Stricker. Not easily rattled, he understands the value of par golf on tough courses, which many younger and more inexperienced players might not. He hits it straight, and is one of the best putters of his generation. He makes a lot from inside 10 feet, which will be key in any major championship, but particularly the U.S. Open. I can’t really come up with a negative for Stricker – ok, he’s not the longest hitter, but that’s not a big deal for someone who keeps it straight.

Run to your fantasy teams and bookies – Steve Stricker’s the man.

Just a quick note on my outside bet for the week – keep an eye on Jonathan Byrd. He’s played extremely well in the last year, including a win and a playoff loss to Lucas Glover. I think Congressional might just suit him down to the ground.

What more can you say about Luke Donald? He is the best player in the world at the moment, and much of the accolades I gave to Stricker can be repeated here. He hits it straight, has the coolest head in the game (as was evidence by his 3^rd round at Wentworth last month) and is happy being the World Number One. Did I mention the razor-sharp short game? I think he’s the best short-game player currently active. You just don’t see him missing. The only downside is a poor record in U.S. Opens, but don’t put much faith in that – he’s come on so far in only the last 14 months that you can’t look at his career stats as being representative. With 14 top-10s in his last 15 starts worldwide, including a win either side of the Atlantic, I expect him to contend again. 14/1 with the bookies is a little short for anyone in a tournament this tough, so maybe leave the money in your pocket and just enjoy watching him.

If Phil Mickelson wins the U.S. Open this weekend, on Father’s Day, I think America might explode. There is so much goodwill riding with Phil this week that he might be penalized for having 15 clubs in the bag. With 5 runner-up finishes in this major (he also came T$ last year), there’s nothing he wants more in golf. Does all this pressure weigh him down? To be honest, I think he puts just as much on himself anytime he plays a big event, so he should be used to it. Yes, if he’s in contention coming down the stretch his mind might go back to Winged Foot, or Pinehurst, but he’s one of the greatest players in the world.

Always a streaky player, what’s been most frustrating for Mickelson this season must be that when he’s finally got his driver under control, his putting’s gone AWOL again. You can’t miss the putts he’s been missing and win a U.S. Open, and he knows it. He putted well in his final round at Memorial (24 putts), but he needs to carry that into this week. He’s the best wedge player in the world, and he’s going to need that this week.

If Mickelson putts well from 4-10 feet, he’ll win this week.

Lee Westwood – I’m sorry, Lee. I just don’t believe. I wish I did. But I don’t. You cannot putt and chip like Lee Westwood and win majors. If you say, “But look – he’s got 5 top-3 finishes in majors since 2008”? That just shows how good a ball-striker he is. Tee-to-green, Westwood is only challenged by Rory McIlroy, in my opinion. He’s the best driver of a ball currently playing. To be fair, he placed 10^th in putting last week at the FedEx St. Jude. If he can replicate that stat this week, he probably will win. But I fear that my visions of him having the horrors on the USGA’s slick greens might come to pass.

He will win a major title eventually. He’s too good not to. The week will come where the short game stands up to examination and he’ll take home the prize. But this week? Look for him to reel off another top-15, maybe even top-5. But win it? No.

What of the defending champion? U.S. Opens are not traditionally friendly to defending champions, with only Tiger and Goosen cracking the top 50 in the last ten years. This year, Graeme McDowell touches down in Maryland with the trophy in his bag, and you can tell from the look in his eyes and the set of his jaw that he doesn’t want to give it back.

He’s won before – he can clearly handle the U.S. Open set up. He’s a fantastic pressure putter – he holes pretty much everything he has to when the chips are down. His maiden major last year was one of 4 wins worldwide, including taking down Tiger in his own tournament, where he made 15-footers for birdie on the 72^nd and first playoff hole.

2011 has started slowly for G-Mac, however – he looked to have found his form at Sawgrass before a final round collapse marked his exit. He played good golf in Europe two weeks ago, if you disregard a 3^rd round 81. And I do, in a way. He’s a had a couple of tournaments now where he’s played very well but hasn’t put four rounds together – I think this could be the week.

Few players have more bottle, more determination, more fire in the belly than the Northern Irishman. He loved beating Tiger last November, he loved beating America in the Ryder Cup – a challenge is what he lives for.

Technically speaking, his game fits the U.S. Open to a T – Solid driving, beautiful ironplay, and good gutsy putting. I fancy G-Mac to have a serious run at this title – Curtis Strange in 1989 is the only player to defend it since Ben Hogan in 1951, but these records have to be broken eventually. G-Mac would like that stat.

A few other names to look at in brief – KJ Choi doesn’t have a good U.S. Open record, but his win at the Players could kickstart his career on to bigger and better things. He’s as steady and phlegmatic as they come – expect him to do well this week. Retief Goosen and Geoff Ogilvy cropped up in those stats a couple of times – you can’t write off former winners, but both of them seem to be off the boil, although the Goose did have a good tournament last week in Memphis. Lucas Glover is another former champion who’s shown some good form.

Matt Kuchar continues to be one of the steadiest players on Tour – we’ve yet to see if he has the nerve to win a major title, but it wouldn’t surprise me – he’s got all the requirements.

Young guns? I still don’t think McIlroy has the short game to win, but hopefully he’ll play well, notch up another top-10, and then head back to Europe and win a couple of ordinary events.

Nick Watney and Hunter Mahan have both played well this year – I doubt they’ll win this week, but they’re two of America’s brightest hopes at the moment and both have major titles in them.

Speaking of bright hopes – Jason Day’s incredible Sunday run at the Masters showed that he has the talent and the bottle to go far in the game, but very few win a U.S. Open on their first attempt – not this year I’m afraid.

Finally, Bubba and Dustin – two bombers, both with good major performances last year, whose unexpectedly good short games give them a great opportunity even on a course where a premium is on hitting fairways. DJ will want to show he’s over Pebble Beach last year, and Bubba’s already shown he has the bottle to win this year when he held off a charging Phil Mickelson.

Who knows? I can’t wait.

Hugh’s tips:

Steve Stricker

Luke Donald

Phil Mickelson

Matt Kuchar

KJ Choi

Graeme McDowell

Jonathan Byrd

Bubba Watson

Lucas Glover

(Tip the whole field and you'll probably win)

Blue Monster

Another week, and another World Golf Championship. This week the setting is the Blue Monster at Doral, for the Cadillac Championship.

Just as any preview in the last 10 years began with a look at Tiger Woods, so too does any current preview start with Martin Kaymer. The German is the best player in the world at the moment, and is justifiably the favourite for every event he plays. He lost to Luke Donald in the final of the WGC Matchplay, and was undoubtedly beaten by the better man – Donald was almost unplayable that whole week. Even in losing though, it was impossible to watch Kaymer without marvelling at the steadiness and confidence of every facet of his game – he has a classy swing, a beautiful putting stroke, and a wonderful temperament. There’s never going be the dominance of the Tiger era at World No.1 again, but Kaymer will be in and around it for a long time to come.

This week, how are his chances? Excellent. He’s the best player in the world. He also finished T-3 here last year; even when you’re the best, a liking for the course does wonders. It was his first real statement to the Americans that he was the real deal, and after his PGA success last August, he’ll be eager to add to his global tally.

Doral’s greens rank among the easiest on tour, and players are rewarded for aggressive iron play and putting. Who springs to mind? Who else but U.S. Open champion Graeme McDowell. Admittedly I tipped him last week as well, but he came good in the final round – a course record 64 giving him the perfect boost coming into this week, and a tournament where he finished T-6 last year. He’s a fantastic iron player and he makes his clutch putts. He loves the big events, and he loves winning them – only Martin Kaymer has won more tournaments (5-4) in the last 12 months. Even without the U.S. Open win, he won at Celtic Manor, Valderrama, and took out Tiger in his own backyard. G-Mac has a bundle more tournaments coming his way, some of them majors, and a couple of WGCs wouldn’t do him any harm at all.

Tiger Woods update – he says he’s making great progress with Sean Foley, and is feeling better about his game. I’m confident he will return to winning ways soon enough, but it’s unlikely to be this week. It’s always great to see him on the course though, and I look forward to watching him back in action.

Last year Doral hosted the South African show – a battle between legend Ernie Els and his protégé Charl Schwartzel. Ernie hasn’t been in great nick so far this year, but he’s won this championship twice, and despite losing in the 2^nd round in the Matchplay looked to be putting well, which is all I ever really look for – with a swing like that, you’re not going to go too far wrong.

Schwartzel is playing some great golf at the moment – he’s got a string of top-10s across the world and shot three rounds under par in the Honda last week (a feat matched by only 3 others). He’s a horses for courses man, and will have fond memories of last year. You can bet your life that Ernie will want to beat him again, but if the Big Easy’s out of the running he’ll be giving Schwartzel any help he needs.

My last player to focus on is my favourite for the last 12 months or so. Matt Kuchar has played as well as any American over the last year, winning the 2010 money list despite only picking up one victory. His consistency is incredible, helped by a great putting stroke and easy-going personality. He’s going to contend everywhere – he let a good position slip in round 3 last week at the Honda, but I’d expect him to be in the mix come Sunday afternoon this week – he finished top-10 last year and has come on leaps and bounds since then.

Who am I leaving out – Westwood, McIlroy, Stricker, Furyk, Poulter – I’ll be honest and say I don’t see them winning or, aside from Westwood, even challenging. Luke Donald is certainly a good prospect – when he gets into a run of form he rides it well. Phil Mickelson is Mr. Unpredictable this year, following his 2^nd place to Bubba with some underwhelming performances in the last few weeks. As ever, you never know what he’s going to pull out of the bag.

As you'd expect when the world's top 50 players are in action, a great week of golf is in prospect. With the Europeans growing ever stronger, don't be surprised if they make it one more at Doral.

The Final Countdown

With just hours to go before Friday morning's pairings are announced, it's time for a last look at the captains' options for the first two days.

For each of the four sets of matches over Friday and Saturday, the captains must select eight players and omit four. There's been no word from Corey Pavin as to his methods, but Colin Montgomerie has guaranteed all of his players a Friday game, wither in the fourballs or the foursomes. Since Mark James's disastrous singles collapse in 1999, I don't think we'll ever again see any player, let alone three, rested until the singles.

So who will play in the first day's matches?

For Europe, there are the obvious pairings. Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell will be first off the first tee. These great friends and great players have shown their mettle before, and I don't expect either one of them to miss a match - both will be key to European success. McIlroy may be a rookie but, like Martin Kaymer, we all know that that's a ridiculous description. He's going to be a star of the matches.

The second no-brainer is to play the Italian brothers together. Francesco and Edoardo Molinari, qualifying in such different ways, won the World Cup together in China last winter, and you have to expect them to get at least 3 of the 4 matches together. They know each other's games better than any other pairing out of either team, and their games should complement each other nicely - Francesco's steady, tee-to-green solidity, with Edoardo's fiery nature and magical putter.

You can put anyone with Martin Kaymer. I don't wish to disrespect him when I say that the man is a machine. Someone is channelling Bernhard Langer's spirit through this young man only they've picked up a better putter on the way. The rumours are that Lee Westwood will partner the US PGA champion, and no one can deny that it's a mouth-watering prospect. It would also be a clever move - no matter how well Westwood has recovered, it still stands that he's hardly played golf in six weeks, and Kaymer might be the perfect man to ease him back into the competitive zone.

I don't expect to see Peter Hanson, Miguel Angel Jimenez, or Ross Fisher in the morning matches. That leaves us with Luke Donald, Ian Poulter, and Padraig Harrington. Despite his Ryder Cup heroics, I'd leave out Poulter. He's out of form at the minute - give him a foursome match with Fisher in the afternoon, but for the moment stick Donald and Harrington together. Harrington has so much to prove in this competition, but his play in Paris last week (18 birdies in his last 36 holes) was perfect fourball play, and in steady Luke Donald Harrington would have an ideal partner.

Monty has said that all will play on Friday, but I don't imagine that he has his foursome pairings definite yet - he'll have an eye on Lee Westwood's calf and how it's holding up - if he needs to bring Jimenez or Hanson into Kaymer's team it won't cause too much hassle.

Poulter and Fisher have played World Cup together, and Poults will be anxious to continue his Ryder Cup charge.

There is no doubt about it - Europe's pairings are magnificently strong and it's tough to see any of them being beaten. They're not going to have it all their own way though, and we'll see how the American's will line up shortly.

Predicted European pairings:

Friday Fourballs:

1. Graeme McDowell & Rory McIlroy

2. Martin Kaymer & Lee Westwood

3. Luke Donald & Padraig Harrington

4. Edoardo Molinari & Francesco Molinari

Friday Foursomes:

1. Edoardo Molinari & Francesco Molinari

2. Ross Fisher & Ian Poulter

3 Peter Hanson & Miguel Angel Jimenez

4. Graeme McDowell & Rory McIlroy

Just Like Home?

No major championship is ever boring, but not many are like the 2010 U.S. PGA.

Although sometimes treated as the forgotten major, its crucial timing in a Ryder Cup year always piques the interest. This year, that's not the only reason.

The PGA is being played at Whistling Straits, one of the most unusual and spectacular courses on the American continent. Host to the PGA in 2004, the course is modelled on the links courses of Ireland, with signposts pointing east to Ballybunion, Royal Portrush, and Portmarnock stationed outside the clubhouse.

As with so many top US courses, it was the genius of Pete Dye that brought Herb Kohler's dreams to reality. Dye and wife Alice came to the shores of Lake Michigan, shifted some soil around, got some dunes going, and hey presto - you'd think you were in Co. Kerry.

The course is long - certain holes require close to a 300-yard carry off the tee - but the emphasis is on accuracy. Paul McGinley, not noted for his length, finished 6th here in 2004 when Vijay Singh took the title. As with most majors, you can't have a weakness, but the focus is on hitting fairways and scrambling. On a course with an average of 53 bunkers per hole, you've got to be confident of getting up and down - you're not going to avoid them all.

So how will this semi-Irish course suit the Irish players? The wind will blow, and as Graeme McDowell has already noted, there'll be days when he'll feel like he's at Portrush or Royal County Down. It should give a slight advantage to the British and Irish players, but not much more than that. The top players in the world these days know how to play links golf - just look at how tough it's been to get a homegrown winner of the Open.

One man whom it might help more than others is Shane Lowry - with far less experience of major golf than his fellow countrymen, he'll feel more at home on this course than he would on Hazeltine, or Baltusrol. With his one win coming in the gales at Baltray, Lowry will be looking to capitalize on any advantage present. I don't expect him to contend seriously, but a solid 3-day performance at the Open shows that his game's in decent nick, and I'd be confident of him making the cut.

Darren Clarke had a decent finish here in 2004, tying for 13th place, and some recent form will give him hope this week. However, the fact is that his priorities have changed in the last few years. He showed at Loch Lomond that he still has some great golf left in him, but to expect him to hold it together for four days at the highest level is to much to ask. While he still harbours hope of making the Ryder Cup team, he can realistcally look forward to being a very important vice-captain.

Graeme McDowell is looking to reignite his game after the inevitable come-down following his U.S. Open triumph. He showed some good form last week in Ohio, and the course should suit him down to the ground - he hits it long and straight, is a fantastic iron player, and isn't afraid to make the putts he needs. I expect to see him in the mix this week, and when he gets pumped he's tough to stop.

Rory McIlroy - The bookies have him at 3rd favourite in the field, and they know what they're doing. He's continuing his relentless run of good golf, shooting four rounds under par last week at Firestone, one of only two players to do so (the other being Bo Van Pelt - tune in tomorrow).

He's steadily moving towards one of the top spots in the world, and the first major isn't too far away. I've always worried slightly over his putting, but since his win at Quail Hollow it seems to be in better shape, and if he can roll the ball well this week he's got to be a contender.

Finally, the main man. His last win worldwide came at the U.S. PGA two years ago, and that's not right. Padraig Harrington is back - he's always a slow starter in the season, hitting his straps once summer rolls around, and his performances in Killarney and Ohio have shown him to be hitting form just in time for the final major. The fact that his putting was off in his T-9 finish last week actually encourages me - it shows that his long game's back in shape, and let's face it - Harrington's putting's never going to be dodgy for too long.

I honestly think Harrington is going to win this week - the focus is still there, and the game is rejoining it. He loves nothing better than going head to head with the world's best, and he's got as much major experience as anyone out there now. The fact that a win would secure his spot on Monty's team for Celtic Manor would be icing on an already delicious cake.

I'll be back tomorrow to weigh up the chances of the non-Irish players in the field, but they'll have their work cut out to beat Paddy.

Ryder Cup Watch

Last September, I drew up a list of the teams I thought would face off at Celtic Manor this October for the Ryder Cup. Having found the lists in an untroubled drawer, they make interesting reading, with only 3 months of qualification left. We'll get to the Americans next week, but let's have a look at who I thought Monty would have on the first tee in Wales.

Padraig Harrington

Lee Westwood

Robert Karlsson

Henrik Stenson

Paul Casey

Ian Poulter

Graeme McDowell

Rory McIlroy

Sergio Garcia

Ross Fisher

Martin Kaymer

Alvaro Quiros

Of Nick Faldo's team, I'd decided that Justin Rose, Soren Hansen, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Oliver Wilson would fail to reappear. Despite Miguel's win in the Gulf earlier this year, I'll stick by that decision. As for my 12 players - I'm happy with most of them, but there are a couple who look a little bit wobbly. What's more, there are guys not on that list who've mounted a charge.

The most obvious absence is Luke Donald, in the light of his performances over the last few weeks. Donald has had a great season, with a few solid finishes Stateside, before returning to Europe and collecting a 2nd place and then a win. His triumph on Sunday has hopefully silenced those who doubted his killer instinct. The pressure was on after his late, late disaster in Wentworth the week before, and he proved himself up to the task. He now looks set to be on the bus to Wales in the autumn, and with a record like his (5 1/2 out of 7), Monty will be delighted.

Donald is such a steady player that he suits the format perfectly - he'll keep a foursomes game chugging along, and can be the reliable player in a fourball to allow his partner burn it up.

Donald has a 4/4 record in the foursome matches, all played with Sergio Garcia.

Sergio's the man over whom the biggest question mark floats. He's had a lousy time of it. He won in the Orient in December 2008, and since then he's fallen off the radar. His mental game's shot, and his putting's still useless. Surely that makes it easy - he won't qualify, and he doesn't deserve a pick. Not quite.

Sergio's always seemed able to turn it on in the Ryder Cup. He's brilliant in the team matches, whether with Jesper Parnevik or Luke Donald. After missing every putt for months beforehand, suddenly they all roll in. He's a firey, energetic player, and you need a couple of them in your locker room.

When he fails to qualify, there'll be a lot of chat about the picks. Can Monty afford to give him one. If he shows any form at all in the summer he'll get one - he's got a couple of majors and a WGC to go at in the last 6 weeks. Without that justification though, it'd be a brave captain to choose him.

What about the Swedes? I'm still confident Karlsson will make it - he's got a win this year and he showed in Wentworth that his game's on the mend. He needs a little more consistency, but I see him challenging strongly at the Open this year, and I think he'll qualify.

Stenson is a trickier one - he's been out of form since winning the Players last May, and he's shown no signs of coming back. Unless he mounts a charge in the summer, he ca kiss his chance goodbye.

The man who might well jump into his shoes is Wales' one shot at a home boy. Rhys Davies has showed his talent this year, with a win in Morocco and a couple of runner-up spots. He's a good ball-striker, a wonderful putter, and has the grit that'll be oh so important come Ryder Cup Sunday. The way he's playing at the moment, he might make it on merit, but he'll certainly be at the front of Monty's mind.

Apologies to Simon Dyson and Ross McGowan, but I think they'll drop off the automatic spots pretty soon. One man who won't go away so easily is Francesco Molinari - he showed his team play with big brother Edoardo in the World Cup, and both bros are pushing for spots. Francesco's playing in Wales this weekend, and I fancy him to finish at least top-5.

So there you go. Really, I've no idea of what's going to happen. If I had to cut three from my list, it'd be the Swedes and Sergio. Ross Fisher has work to do, but he strikes me as a guy who makes most of his money in the summer months.

The team's going to have a mix of talents - steady grinding, scrambling, raw talent, big hitting, and deft touches.

One thing's for sure - it'll be a team bursting with quality.

On Top Of The World

Every year, the World Cup of golf is an event that has to prove itself. Unaided by some of the world's top players giving it the cold shoulder (no offence to Nick Watney and John Merrick, but they're not quite top of the US tree), there is a tendency to take this tournament less seriously than it deserves. This year, once again, it showed itself to be the great event that it is.

Having said that the top players don't always play, there was no lack of talent this year. McIlroy and McDowell, Karlsson and Stenson, Poulter and Fisher, Garcia and Castano....not a line up to be sniffed at. Of course, no one believes me now when I said I tipped the Italians at the beginning of the week (but I did). Both have shown themselves to be excellent players in the last few years - Francesco winning his home Open in 2006, while Edoardo picked up 3 Challenge Tour titles this season on his way to topping the rankings. Obviously the connection between them is very strong, and they've played a lot of golf together, but I really expected team golf to suit them. Francesco played superb golf in the Vivendi Trophy earlier this autumn, and all this week their excitement and passion was more visible than any other team's.

They've got a lot to do to make it into the running for next year's Ryder Cup, but Colin Montgomerie must be rubbing his hands in glee as he sees another European pairing bringing home the bacon.

They both showed a lot of bottle in the last round. While Ireland and Sweden had their struggles around the turn and early on the back nine, the Italians made their move. Three straight birdies gave them the lead, and they held on to it firmly. In any sport, there's a point in the race/match/etc where the champion ups the pace. Whether it's Haile Gebrselassie, Roger Federer, or Michael Schumacher - they sense the time is right to move up a gear and take advantage. The Molinari brothers showed their nerve in spades on the final hole. A fantastic drive from Francesco still left Edoardo with a hugely intimidating shot, and a slight push put them in trouble in the right-hand bunker. Francesco splashed out to 3 feet, and big brother held his nerve to roll it in, before leaping into the air in true Italian delight. The pressure on that bunker shot was huge, not helped by a gigantic lake behind and the Irish and Swedes breathing down their necks. Each brother played a great last shot on that hole, and next time they're in the running on Sunday afternoon, whether together or on their own, that's what will stand to them.

Ireland and Sweden. Favourites coming into the week, they'll both be remembering missed opportunities, not least at the final hole. Henrik Stenson lipped out from 40 feet to fall one shot short, before Graeme McDowell left his putt from 30 feet an agonising few inches short.

In reality, however, they failed to take their chances earlier in the round, and allowed the Italians to build a lead. 3 bogeys cost Ireland dearly, especially a miss from short range by McIlroy. The Swedes on the other hand just didn't convert birdie chances when they had them.

But to the positives. Rory and G-Mac have sold themselves as a guaranteed team for Celtic Manor in 2010, and Karlsson and Stenson are in the same boat. Karlsson has had a difficult year, battling eye injury for much of the early season and not replicating his Order of Merit-winning form of 2008. He showed good form in Japan last week to finish second (to Edoardo Molinari, ironically) and there can be no doubt that the big man is back for next year.

That finishes up 2009 for the European golfers. 2010 will begin early as always, specifically on 10th December 2009. This season has given us so many remarkable moments, whether it was Rory McIlroy hanging on in Dubai for his maiden title, Angel Cabrera snatching the Masters from the jaws of defeat, Tom Watson living a dream for a week in July, Harrington and Tiger battling through August. It's been a hell of a year, but we couldn't have asked for a better end. The Molinaris have stamped their names on world golf, and they're not going anywhere.

I'll see you next season.