Who's Got It?

Yesterday’s stat-attack (see below) threw up a few familiar names in the run-up to the U.S. Open – steady players like Luke Donald, Steve Stricker, and Matt Kuchar all featured strongly, while former major winners Geoff Ogilvy, Zach Johnson, and Retief Goosen had respectable showings as well. Stats aside though, who fits the mould to win at Congressional and who just isn’t ready yet?

What do you need to win? Fairways and greens, really solid putting, good scrambling, and, above all, a seriously cool head.

I’m going to start with my number one pick this week – Steve Stricker. Certainly one of the best players never to have won a major, the veteran American only hit his real form after turning 40, and is showing no signs of slowing down any time soon. He’s registered a few top-10s in the U.S. Open before, but it’s only in the last few years that he’s looked the real deal. A relatively slow start to the season was put to bed with a win at Jack Nicklaus’s Memorial Tournament two weeks ago, a course which it was claimed would not set up well for Stricker.

So does he fit the U.S. Open? He’s one of the steadiest players on Tour – you won’t find anyone with a cooler head than Stricker. Not easily rattled, he understands the value of par golf on tough courses, which many younger and more inexperienced players might not. He hits it straight, and is one of the best putters of his generation. He makes a lot from inside 10 feet, which will be key in any major championship, but particularly the U.S. Open. I can’t really come up with a negative for Stricker – ok, he’s not the longest hitter, but that’s not a big deal for someone who keeps it straight.

Run to your fantasy teams and bookies – Steve Stricker’s the man.

Just a quick note on my outside bet for the week – keep an eye on Jonathan Byrd. He’s played extremely well in the last year, including a win and a playoff loss to Lucas Glover. I think Congressional might just suit him down to the ground.

What more can you say about Luke Donald? He is the best player in the world at the moment, and much of the accolades I gave to Stricker can be repeated here. He hits it straight, has the coolest head in the game (as was evidence by his 3^rd round at Wentworth last month) and is happy being the World Number One. Did I mention the razor-sharp short game? I think he’s the best short-game player currently active. You just don’t see him missing. The only downside is a poor record in U.S. Opens, but don’t put much faith in that – he’s come on so far in only the last 14 months that you can’t look at his career stats as being representative. With 14 top-10s in his last 15 starts worldwide, including a win either side of the Atlantic, I expect him to contend again. 14/1 with the bookies is a little short for anyone in a tournament this tough, so maybe leave the money in your pocket and just enjoy watching him.

If Phil Mickelson wins the U.S. Open this weekend, on Father’s Day, I think America might explode. There is so much goodwill riding with Phil this week that he might be penalized for having 15 clubs in the bag. With 5 runner-up finishes in this major (he also came T$ last year), there’s nothing he wants more in golf. Does all this pressure weigh him down? To be honest, I think he puts just as much on himself anytime he plays a big event, so he should be used to it. Yes, if he’s in contention coming down the stretch his mind might go back to Winged Foot, or Pinehurst, but he’s one of the greatest players in the world.

Always a streaky player, what’s been most frustrating for Mickelson this season must be that when he’s finally got his driver under control, his putting’s gone AWOL again. You can’t miss the putts he’s been missing and win a U.S. Open, and he knows it. He putted well in his final round at Memorial (24 putts), but he needs to carry that into this week. He’s the best wedge player in the world, and he’s going to need that this week.

If Mickelson putts well from 4-10 feet, he’ll win this week.

Lee Westwood – I’m sorry, Lee. I just don’t believe. I wish I did. But I don’t. You cannot putt and chip like Lee Westwood and win majors. If you say, “But look – he’s got 5 top-3 finishes in majors since 2008”? That just shows how good a ball-striker he is. Tee-to-green, Westwood is only challenged by Rory McIlroy, in my opinion. He’s the best driver of a ball currently playing. To be fair, he placed 10^th in putting last week at the FedEx St. Jude. If he can replicate that stat this week, he probably will win. But I fear that my visions of him having the horrors on the USGA’s slick greens might come to pass.

He will win a major title eventually. He’s too good not to. The week will come where the short game stands up to examination and he’ll take home the prize. But this week? Look for him to reel off another top-15, maybe even top-5. But win it? No.

What of the defending champion? U.S. Opens are not traditionally friendly to defending champions, with only Tiger and Goosen cracking the top 50 in the last ten years. This year, Graeme McDowell touches down in Maryland with the trophy in his bag, and you can tell from the look in his eyes and the set of his jaw that he doesn’t want to give it back.

He’s won before – he can clearly handle the U.S. Open set up. He’s a fantastic pressure putter – he holes pretty much everything he has to when the chips are down. His maiden major last year was one of 4 wins worldwide, including taking down Tiger in his own tournament, where he made 15-footers for birdie on the 72^nd and first playoff hole.

2011 has started slowly for G-Mac, however – he looked to have found his form at Sawgrass before a final round collapse marked his exit. He played good golf in Europe two weeks ago, if you disregard a 3^rd round 81. And I do, in a way. He’s a had a couple of tournaments now where he’s played very well but hasn’t put four rounds together – I think this could be the week.

Few players have more bottle, more determination, more fire in the belly than the Northern Irishman. He loved beating Tiger last November, he loved beating America in the Ryder Cup – a challenge is what he lives for.

Technically speaking, his game fits the U.S. Open to a T – Solid driving, beautiful ironplay, and good gutsy putting. I fancy G-Mac to have a serious run at this title – Curtis Strange in 1989 is the only player to defend it since Ben Hogan in 1951, but these records have to be broken eventually. G-Mac would like that stat.

A few other names to look at in brief – KJ Choi doesn’t have a good U.S. Open record, but his win at the Players could kickstart his career on to bigger and better things. He’s as steady and phlegmatic as they come – expect him to do well this week. Retief Goosen and Geoff Ogilvy cropped up in those stats a couple of times – you can’t write off former winners, but both of them seem to be off the boil, although the Goose did have a good tournament last week in Memphis. Lucas Glover is another former champion who’s shown some good form.

Matt Kuchar continues to be one of the steadiest players on Tour – we’ve yet to see if he has the nerve to win a major title, but it wouldn’t surprise me – he’s got all the requirements.

Young guns? I still don’t think McIlroy has the short game to win, but hopefully he’ll play well, notch up another top-10, and then head back to Europe and win a couple of ordinary events.

Nick Watney and Hunter Mahan have both played well this year – I doubt they’ll win this week, but they’re two of America’s brightest hopes at the moment and both have major titles in them.

Speaking of bright hopes – Jason Day’s incredible Sunday run at the Masters showed that he has the talent and the bottle to go far in the game, but very few win a U.S. Open on their first attempt – not this year I’m afraid.

Finally, Bubba and Dustin – two bombers, both with good major performances last year, whose unexpectedly good short games give them a great opportunity even on a course where a premium is on hitting fairways. DJ will want to show he’s over Pebble Beach last year, and Bubba’s already shown he has the bottle to win this year when he held off a charging Phil Mickelson.

Who knows? I can’t wait.

Hugh’s tips:

Steve Stricker

Luke Donald

Phil Mickelson

Matt Kuchar

KJ Choi

Graeme McDowell

Jonathan Byrd

Bubba Watson

Lucas Glover

(Tip the whole field and you'll probably win)

Crunching the Numbers

Historically the toughest test of all golf championships, the U.S. Open is the one week left where the U.S.G.A. can inflict pain on the top professionals in the world. Characterized by tight fairways, high rough, fast greens and consequentially high scoring averages, the U.S. Open can only be won by a golfer who keeps his game and head in check throughout four days of gruelling competition. Last year saw Graeme McDowell become the first European in 40 years to lift the trophy, after he withstood challenges from Gregory Havret, Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods and Ernie Els. Dustin Johnson played three great rounds but to no avail, imploding on the front nine on Sunday to leave licking his wounds and imagining what might have been.

This year the tournament heads to Maryland, to Congressional Golf and Country Club. The U.S. Open was held there in 1997, when Ernie Els (-4) finished a shot ahead of Colin Montgomerie to land his second U.S. Open title. Give the 14-year gap, and the changes made to the course since then, we can’t glean too much information from the final leaderboard – aside from Els, Jim Furyk is the only current payer with a top-10 at Congressional’s last showing.

At a 7,500 yard par 71, Congressional looks to be fitting the mould for U.S. Open courses – the greens will be fast, and the rough at its shortest will be between 3 ¾ and 4 inches deep.

So who can triumph? I’ll be back later in the week with more detailed previews and tips, but right now, let’s look at what some of the key stats will be in a week where the focus has to be on damage limitation. Par is seldom a bad score in this tournament, and the 2011 edition looks like it won’t be any different.

Ball-Striking

You must find fairways and greens at the U.S. Open. The organizers will be sure to keep the greens slick and well surrounded by run-off areas, so making par after a wayward iron shot can be nigh on impossible. As for hitting the green from the rough, you’re going to need a bit of luck. In 2004, most players took on Shinnecock Hills with fairway woods off the tee – Vijay Singh took a different approach – he decided to whack the driver almost everywhere, but trust that he’d be able to muscle 8 and 9-irons from the rough if he missed the fairways. He went into the weekend leading the Greens In Regulation stats. Congressional is longer than Shinnecock, but the Vijay tactic should give hope to some of the bombers, who will hope to use their length to set up shorter approaches.

Take Bubba Watson – despite ranking 92 in driving accuracy on tour, he’s number 2 in distance (surely he’s not happy about that), and he manages to top the GIR stats on the PGA Tour. He’s number 2 behind Boo Weekley on the PGA Tour’s Ball-Striking stats (combination of Driving & GIR), and with a short game like his, he should be a serious contender this week. Also clocking in high up on the ball-striking list are Hunter Mahan (T4), Nick Watney (9^th), Sergio Garcia (T10), Dustin Johnson (14^th), Adam Scott (16^th), and Matt Kuchar in 18^th place. Justin Rose (23^rd) and Graeme McDowell (25^th) close out the top 25.

Two guys a little further down to note are Steve Stricker in 34^th place and Luke Donald who ties for 42^nd.

All of these guys would be on my shortlist to contend this week, so it’s encouraging to see that they’re doing the first part right. The stats only give us so much obviously, and guys a little further down the list can make up the difference with higher rankings around the greens, but these numbers do at least show us that big hitters like Bubba and Dustin can still come up with decent GIR numbers, although the punishment at Congressional might be more severe.

Scrambling

You must be able to save par. Birdies are all well and good, but at a U.S. Open the guy who walks off with the trophy will have made a hell of a lot of good pars. Whether from bunkers, thick greenside rough, run-off areas, or 100 yards back in the fairway after a chip-out from the rough, you must get up and down time and again. With Phil Mickelson’s wedgeplay, you have to wonder how he hasn’t won it yet – remember, though, he does have 5 runners-up finishes.

So who gets it up and down the most on tour?

Unsurprisingly, we have a few of the season’s early winners high up in the rankings – two-time champion Mark Wilson tops the chart, while Memorial champ Steve Stricker comes in in 3^rd. World Number One Luke Donald clocks in at 6^th, while former U.S. Open winner Geoff Ogilvy (7^th), Zach Johnson (8^th), KJ Choi (9^th) and Matt Kuchar (13^th) also have good numbers. Padraig Harrington and Mickelson come in at 16^th and 17^th respectively. Nick Watney (T23) and Retief Goosen (25^th) finish out the top 25.

These guys have 11 major championships between them, and bear in mind that Stricker and Donald don’t own any. Yet.

A lot of these names are high on the list of bogey avoidance (obviously) – Stricker, Kuchar and Donald make up 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd, with Nick Watney placing 11^th and Phil Mickelson T15 with Justin Rose. To his credit, Sergio Garcia places 21^st on this list, despite not being the greatest scrambler of all time.

Putting Inside 10ft

The last stat we’ll look at is percentage of putts made from within 10 feet. In any tournament, the guys who make all their 5, 6, 7-footers will be in contention, but nowhere more so than the U.S. Open. We’ve talked about the importance of making those pars when you need to – plenty of them will be around the 10-foot range – there’ll be some good 10-foot bogeys made too, you can be sure of that.

Geoff Ogilvy and Zach Johnson score well again, placing 2^nd and 4^th respectively. 2009 U.S. PGA Champion comes in at T6, while Brian Gay (T11), Ryan Moore (13^th) and Retief Goosen (14^th) have good showings. Those two guys I keep coming back to – Donald and Stricker? 17^th and 21^st. Harrington places T22 while Nick Watney closes out the top 25.

So there you have it. A few key numbers to consider when picking your tip for the U.S. Open. Obviously, the system is flawed – I’ve been using the PGA Tour stats (because, being American, they’re an awful lot better than those provided by the European Tour) and so players like Martin Kaymer, Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy and Miguel Angel Jimenez won’t appear.

For your guidedog, here are a few scrambling numbers from the European stats – Reitef Goosen takes 2^nd place, Sergio surprisingly makes it in at 6^th (although with fewer rounds), while Matteo Manassero and Martin Kaymer are in 8^th and 9^th place. Jimenez and Westwood are respectable as well, placing 13^th and 18^th.

McIlroy, Kaymer, McDowell, Poulter and Manassero all place in the top-20 in GIR.

What does it all mean? Who knows? But it’s no surprise that the names that seem to come up in all aspects are those of Luke Donald, Mr. Consistent Steve Stricker, and star of the future Nick Watney, as well as guys who’ve won the championship before.

Make of it what you will.

A Flying Start

We were promised exciting matchplay golf. We got it.

The first day of the Accenture World Matchplay did not disappoint. There were close finishes, upsets, top seeds pushed to the limit, and some simply incredible golf.

Best to start with the casualties - Padraig Harrington is heading home with a last-64 cheque for $45,000 after losing 3&1 to Jeev Milkha Singh - the golf wasn't spectacular but it was a great match - Harrington was spraying the ball around and relying on his major-winning short game to stay in it. In the end, the workman-like swing of Singh was too much for the Irishman, and the Indian No. 1 will face Matt Kuchar in the next round.

Kuchar, as predicted here last night, was another giantkiller, taking down Anthony Kim. Again, Kim was off-form, but Kuchar played a solid game to win 3&2.

Defending champion Geoff Ogilvy had an easy start to his campaign, defeating Alex Noren 7&5. Ogilvy didn't play his best golf, but he'll be happy to get the ball rolling again on a course he loves.

Mike Weir produced the performance of the day - 9 birdies in the 12 holes he played blew away Alvaro Quiros by 8&6 - Paul Casey looked gobsmacked when he heard about his 2nd round opponent in interview, but after Casey's 5&4 win over Stephen Ames, that could be one of the highlights of tomorrow.

Luke Donald played some great matchplay golf to hold off Graeme McDowell 2&1 and set up a showdown wit Robert Allenby tomorrow - Donald looks back in good touch this year, and I fancy him to go far this week. Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer are both in his bracket, and both produced fantastic back nines to win their matches. McIlroy was 4 down through 6 holes, 2 down through 14, and won on the 18th. I don't care what the commentators say - that's the sort of match you want in the first round. An early finish might be a little easier, but if you don't get pushed in the early rounds you won't be ready when the going gets tough. Just look at Ogilvy last year - he hardly finished a match before the 18th all week. Forget what they say about the players needing a rest - they are all fit guys, and golf's their job. The guys who went to 18, 19, 20 holes today are my favourites to win tomorrow.

Two such were the Molinari brothers, who both lost out only just - Edoardo was 4 up on Stewart Cink with 9 to play, but the Open Champion holed everything on the back to sneak a win.

Another late finisher was Ian Poulter, who beat Justin Leonard on the 19th. Poults is a fiery matchplayer, and he's going to be tough to beat. With Harrington and top seed Steve Stricker out of the Bobby Jones bracket, Poulter's become a very strong contender for the semi-finals. Stricker looked pretty good against Ross McGowan, but the Englishman stuck with him all the way, took him to extra holes, and holed a beauty on the 19th for the win. He'll have a second round match against 18-year old Japanese sensation Ryo Ishikawa.

Match of the day tomorrow is arguably the clash of the South Africans - Ernie Els and Retief Goosen won their matches without too much difficulty, and the only shame is that one of them will be going home tomorrow night.

The bad news of the tournament is that Henrik Stenson, former champion and one of the pre-tournament favourites, had to withdraw after one hole against Ben Crane. The guys in his bracket will be relieved that the big-hitting Swede is no longer a threat, but it's a shame that he won't be playing a tournament that suits him so well.

There were good wins from Yang, Schwartzel, Jaidee, Clark and Karlsson among others today, and we look set for a great week. Check out the comments below for Round 2 predictions, and keep in touch with how it pans out here.

One On One

Certain weeks of the year are special. Augusta. Open Week. The Ryder Cup is perhaps at the top of the tree. But the Accenture World Matchplay isn't far behind.

Whether to play or to watch, matchplay is exciting. It's a totally different game - the player who churns out 4 70s every week can pack up early - you need to be able to turn on the gas to triumph this week. 64 one day mightn't be enough, a 73 tomorrow could win 3&2. Every shot your opponent hits changes your own game plan, no matter how many pros say they just play their own game.There'll be matches ending on the 12th green, and players still going on the 24th teebox.

So who's going to win? Some players suit the format - in the early 1900s US amateur Jerry Travers was practically unbeatable in matchplay but couldn't string 4 rounds together in strokeplay. Geoff Ogilvy is the latest Accenture king, with 2 victories and a runners-up spot in four appearances. With a win from his only tournament so far this season, and a third child for him and his wife, the easygoing Australian will be feeling good again. He faces Swede Alexander Noren in the first round, and you've got to think his pedigree will count against the rookie.

That being said, we'll have upsets in the first round, as always. Matt Kuchar could be a decent long odds bet against Ryder Cup hero Anthony Kim, and expect Padraig Harrington to have a tough ride against Jeev Milkha Singh. Francesco Molinari will be looking to continue his good form into a win against Zach Johnson, and Chris Wood will fancy his chances against Lee Westwood, who has had little success in the Matchplay for a player of his talent.

The Gary Player bracket looks to be particularly strong this year, with Ogilvy, Westwood, Henrik Stenson, and Ernie Els heading it up. Stenson is a former winner of this event, and at 30/1, Els is my pick for the championship. A quarter-final loss last year his best performance, the Big Easy nonetheless has a phenomenal matchplay record throughout his career, and with 3 top-12s from 3 this year so far, I think it's Ernie's time to shine. A win against Ryan Moore in his first round could set up a clash with Retief Goosen, another resurgent South African. Let's face it though - there won't be any easy matches all week.

Prime match-ups of the first round?

Robert Karlsson v. Rory Sabbatini

Ross Fisher v. Thongchai Jaidee

Padraig Harrington v. Jeev Milkha Singh

Ian Poulter v. Justin Leonard (Plenty of people expect the fiery Poulter to go far after his Ryder Cup success)

Luke Donald v. Graeme McDowell (Tough to call, but I reckon Donald's a good bet to reach the quarters)

Camilo Villegas v. Dustin Johnson (Johnson's coming off a win at Pebble Beach, and will fancy his chances against the Colombian making his first appearance of 2010)

Hunter Mahan v. Charl Schwartzel

Stewart Cink v. Edoardo Molinari (Cink has finished 2nd and 3rd here in the past, and after his Open win last year should put in another solid performance, while Molinari will be hoping to set up a clash with his brother in the quarter-finals.

Check out the comments below to see how I think the draw will pan out - at the moment my quarter-finals are:

Steve Stricker v. Ian Poulter

Ernie Els v. Geoff Ogilvy

Lucas Glover v. Luke Donald

Stewart Cink v. Paul Casey

Who knows just how wrong I could be - prediction is a fool's game this week, but who'd complain with those for our final 8?

Keep in touch here to stay up to date with the week as it progresses. Until then, enjoy the golf.

Off To The Desert

And so, the European Tour bids farewell to South Africa this week and heads over to the Gulf, where it will take in Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Dubai.

One man will be disappointed to leave - Charl Schwartzel registered back-to-back wins in his homeland to give him the perfect start to the 2010 Race to Dubai. In the last edition of this blog Schwartzel was mentioned as a player who's always threatened to become a prolific winner but hasn't quite got it going. It looks like he does now. He may not have faced the strongest field in the world in Joburg last week, but nobody would have beaten him, as he raced away from the field to take a second title. Still only 25 years old, Schwartzel looks set to take on the world as the year continues. He leapt to 35th in the world after his victories and will aim to make gains in the majors and WGCs this year. He has a beautiful long game, and when he gets the putter hot, it's tough to stop him.

It was wonderful to see a resurgence from Darren Clarke in Joburg last week as well. Clarke played solid golf all week to tie for second place with local boy Keith Horne. We all know how good Darren is when he's at his best, and hopefully he can keep this form going this week. He's identified his primary goal for the year as the Ryder Cup in Wales, and he's got off to a good start. Competition is huge this year though, and he knows it - in 2008 he won twice on Tour and still failed to qualify. Always a favourite with the fans for his exciting runs of form, it would be nice to see a bit of consistency from the Ryder Cup hero. Let's be honest - we all want to see him teeing it up alongside Lee Westwood in Celtic Manor on 1st October.

This week, however, there's plenty to look forward to. Some of the biggest names in golf have decided to start their year in Abu Dhabi tomorrow, including Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Rory McIlroy, Martin Kaymer, and 2009 Race to Dubai winner Lee Westwood. Defending champion Paul Casey is also joined by Australian Geoff Ogilvy, who won the SBS Championship in the States to kick off his 2010. It's a first appearance in Abu Dhabi for the relaxed Aussie, but that doesn't matter - he'll just smile and make some birdies.

Casey had quite the year last year - he produced the best golf I've ever seen him play to win this event, including phenomenal putting, before he won again at Wentworth and on the PGA Tour. Having risen to World Number 3, he then suffered a rib injury to miss some time later on, and he never recovered his early form. No one can doubt that he's now a major player though, and if he putts like he did last year, he'll win.

Westwood, McIlroy and Kaymer are all going to make noise this year. No majors between them yet - check in 5 years time and they might have 10. Westwood has moved to another level of golf, beyond that he reached in 2000, despite his No. 4 rank at the time. He's more mature, more focussed, and has one of the best games in the world. He's going to win at least 3 or 4 this year, and don't be surprised if one of them's at Augusta.

McIlroy and Kaymer are two incredible talents - both future No. 1s, and in my mind definites for Celtic Manor, they too should grab a few victories this season, and they're close to majors. They're both calm, confident, and have an awesome game. If you want to know the leaders of European golf in 2020, there's my prediction (and who'll remember if I'm wrong?). They might let Ross Fisher in as well.

As for a couple of lower-profile picks, watch Louis Oosthuizen (2nd last year), Danny Willett (plenty to come from him this year) and Soren Kjeldsen (don't rule him out of a Ryder Cup berth).

The Gulf swing never fails to disappoint, and in a Ryder Cup year, every European wants to get off the marks early. Expect some low rounds - there're birdies to be had.