Home Comforts

For the first time in nearly 60 years, Royal Portrush is playing host to the Irish Open. Given the success of Northern Irish golfers in the last few years, expectations have never been higher for local heroes to succeed, and with over 100,000 fans expect to turn out, the 2012 Irish Open will be one to remember.

The question is, can one of the local boys do the business?


Rory McIlroy is not playing well. After missing three cuts running, he had a chance to win the St. Jude Classic before hooking a 3-wood into the water on the 72nd hole. Despite his top-10 finish, he still didn’t look in control of his ball, and the fact that he managed to stay in contention is testament to his talent. It was fairly unsurprising, however, that his bad play was found out at the U.S. Open. The Olympic Club was not a venue where you could get away with bad golf – you could barely get away with good golf – and McIlroy crashed out on Friday afternoon.

Having taken a week off following the major he is now back home, not too far from where it all began for the World Number 2. The question is, is that a help?

There’s no doubt that he will receive tremendous support from the home crowd, but the fact remains that his game does not seem ideally suited to links golf. He has produced some moments of magic, particularly at St. Andrew’s, but for a man who grew up in Northern Ireland his links game is distinctly questionable. After a disappointing finish in last year’s Open Championship, he gave a somewhat childish interview in which he didn’t seem at all inclined to try to adapt his game to links golf, stating that it’s only one week of the year. Not the attitude you want from a man tipped to conquer the golfing world.

He has moved to the United States, and plays most of his golf there now, where the clear weather, mid-20s temperatures and cultivated courses suit his undoubtedly superb game. With plenty of rain forecast for the weekend at Portrush, we might well see another cold and uninspiring performance from McIlroy.

I can’t see him missing the cut again – I reckon sheer willpower to keep the fans happy will see him through to the weekend – but he just doesn’t seem to have the control over his long game that will be necessary to contend on this tough golf course.

Prediction: 30th-40th place



I get the feeling that Graeme McDowell is pretty excited. If you ever want a golfer who loves a pressure situation, is prepared to go toe-to-toe with anyone and believes he will win every time he goes out, look no further than the 2010 U.S. Open champion. I really didn’t see him going as close as he did at the U.S. Open, but once again he showed that he can find form when he needs to. With Furyk struggling on the final day I expect McDowell to close it out, but a couple of errors ended up costing him dear. He showed his scrapping qualities throughout, right up to a gutsy birdie on the 17th and a great iron shot on the last to give him a chance of the playoff.

Everyone wants to win their home event, but I don’t think anyone is as up for it as McDowell. He’s been a big supporter of trying to get tournaments back to Portrush, and he’ll want to show everyone that he rules the roost there. We know McDowell is a great iron player and pressure putter; add to that some local knowledge and a willingness to fight all the way to the line, and I think you might just have the 2012 Irish Open champion. Expectations and pressure can overwhelm some players – Graeme McDowell seldom gets more than whelmed. I’m ready to jump back on the G-Mac bandwagon – I think he goes very close this week.

Prediction: Champion



Padraig Harrington gets an awful lot of stick for constantly looking to make changes to his swing – “you’ve won three major championships,” they cry – “Why change anything?” The fact is that that’s just the kind of player he is. He’s a technically-minded man, and is always looking to improve how he hits the ball. Those majors are due in no small part to this attribute, and when he gets back in the winner’s enclosure, it might finally silence the nay-sayers.

Certainly, anyone who’s been watching him for the last 15 months or so must accept that he’s been close to playing very well, and in the last two months alone he looks to be hitting it brilliantly. Oddly enough, the problem holding him back from winning in the last few weeks seems to be his putting from 6-15 feet – usually his strength, his stroke just looks a little bit tentative at the moment. You can’t win if you’re not holing those putts, and the quality of his performances of late just shows how good his long game is. Harrington birdied 7 of 8 holes last Saturday – that is not a very Harringtonesque performance. Where is the grinder of Carnoustie?

I don’t believe you lose as good a putting stroke as that at his age, and I’m confident he’s going to start holing them again and start winning again.

With all the focus on the Northern boys this week, you can bet your life that Harrington would love to remind them who has three majors in the cupboard, not to mention an Irish Open title. However, having played 7 of the last 8 weeks, and with three in a row taking place in California, Connecticut, and Ireland, you’d have to worry that fatigue might be beginning to set in. He’ll get a rousing reception from the crowd, and I hope he can ride that to success, but I can’t quite see him doing the business this week. Closing out a tournament isn’t easy when it’s been nearly 4 years since your last, and I think we might have to be patient and allow Harrington a few Sundays where he goes close before he brings home the bacon again. He’s still got plenty of wins left in the tank and, in my opinion, one more major.

I think tiredness might be an issue this week, but I’ve no doubt that his good form will carry him through to a strong performance once again.

Prediction: 15th - 25th place


Graeme McDowell recently reminded the world that “it’s been nearly ten months since a Northern Irishman won a major championship”. No one doubted McIlroy’s or McDowell’s rise to the top, but there were plenty of joyfully surprised fans who watched Darren Clarke lift the Claret Jug last July. Back in the day, I was convinced that Clarke would taste major success (and fairly sure that Harrington wouldn’t) but I have to admit that I had given up hope by the time the Open rolled around again last year. In absolutely foul conditions, Darren Clarke delivered, quite simply, the finest exhibition of links golf that I have ever seen. He schooled the field in how to play the course and the weather, and put the gloss on his career that it richly deserved.

Since then, Clarke’s form has been pretty poor. He spoke of struggling to set new goals for himself – given his age and achievements he seemed to be lacking the hunger necessary to contend. He’ll be as proud as anyone that the Irish Open has returned to Northern Ireland, however, and you can be sure that he’ll do his utmost to lift his game. Form isn’t his only worry – he’s been struggling with a groin problem which caused him to miss the U.S. Open two weeks ago. The word is that he’s recovering well from it, but you never know exactly how fit you are until you’re tested in tournament conditions.

I can’t see any way that Clarke will be a force in this championship, but I hope that he can find some form, and make the cut, if only to give his many fans a couple more days to watch him play.

Prediction: Missed Cut


But for a 77 on Saturday, Paul McGinley could well have been in the final shake up for the BMW Championship last week in Germany. As it was, a closing 66 left him one shot out of the playoff. He has to be disappointed with the 3rd round performance, but a third top-7 finish in four weeks is proof that McGinley is rediscovering the type of form that saw him lift the Ryder Cup three times with Europe. Without a tournament win since 2005, McGinley’s career has been steadily waning since that last Ryder Cup appearance at the K Club in 2006. Tipped by many to lead Europe in Gleneagles in 2014, the Dubliner seems to want to show the world that he’s not quite ready for the desk job yet. Always a tidy player, he’ll be looking forward to taking on what he describes as one of his favourite courses in the world and improving on his 5th place finish in Baltray in 2004.

I don’t think McGinley has what it takes to win the event, but as a man in form, he’s another prospect for the fans to get behind.

Prediction: 30th - 40th place


Supporting Cast


There are several other Irish hopefuls playing, from the bigger names of Damien McGrane and the in-form Peter Lawrie all the way to Alan Dunbar, the 23-year old Amateur who captured the British Amateur with a courageous final hole victory last week. Lawrie is the most obvious to give it a real crack, but on a links course, you never know which Irishman might just find a purple patch.


Invaders?


Outside of the Irish, here are just a few names to watch. Although Simon Dyson won his Irish Open title in Killarney, he has shown that he enjoys his links, and I would expect Dyson to put up a strong defence of his crown.

Paul Lawrie is playing his way on to his second Ryder Cup team, and if you don’t back a Carnoustie champion on a tough links course, who do you back?

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano still looks wobbly over his shorter putts, but the Spaniard has thrown in a couple of good finishes with some missed cuts. I’d expect him to be in the mix this week.

Francesco Molinari already has a win this year, and will be keen to show his game is ready for the Open Championship. As solid a ball-striker as you can get on the European Tour, look for the Italian to be in the top 10 on Sunday.

Ross Fisher is playing well again. His 2010 win in Killarney shouldn't be given too much weight as it was on a parkland course, but when he's in form, he's a very dangerous player.
Finally, Chris Wood had his chances last week, but he can temper the disappointment with a return to links. With top-5 finishes in the 2008 and 2009 Opens, and a strong showing at Baltray 3 years ago, the tall Englishman has displayed his aptitude for links golf. Back in form this season, he should contend once again.

To Pick Or Not To Pick?

Although never viewed with the same awe as the Ryder Cup, for those who play the President's Cup it is a highlight of the year. It allows international players the chance to experience something of that team golf feel that the Ryder Cup split denies them. One of the great shames in golf is that legends such as Gary Player, Peter Thomson, Bobby Locke, Ernie Els and Vijay Singh never played a Ryder Cup, and for the new generation - Jason Day, Adam Scott, Charl Schwartzel - the same applies. Two greats will face off as captains this year, with Fred Couples and Greg Norman taking the reigns.

The big story of the match so far is Fred Couples' selection of Tiger Woods as one of his two wildcards picks, which he both decided and announced publicly several weeks in advance of the due date. Both the pick and its manner drew much criticism, not only from the media, but also from Couples' own team, with senior man Phil Mickelson protesting on behalf of 2011 U.S. PGA winner Keegan Bradley, who can count himself unlucky to miss out on a seat on the plane to Australia.

Bill Haas took Couples' second pick, and after a playoff FedEx win which involved two incredible par saves before taking it at the 3rd hole, it's tough to say he doesn't deserve it.

What about Tiger? Can Couples justify picking a man in such poor form, who hasn't been playing much golf? The arguments against are obvious. Since that famous car crash in 2009, shortly after the last edition of the President's Cup, he has shown little form at all, his best finishes coming through a couple of hard-fought major top-10s. Respect amongst his peers is not what it was, and he has certainly lost the aura that he had when winning 14 majors. As players like Day, Schwartzel and Graeme McDowell have shown, youngsters today are no longer afraid to take him on down the stretch.

So why do Fred Couples and I think he should be on the team?

He is the greatest player of the generation, and arguably the greatest player of all time. No one has exerted the dominance over quality opposition in the same way as Woods. While that dominance may be at an end, he showed flashes of brilliance over the last year that tells us that he is not yet done. Matchplay is the perfect format for Tiger at the moment - he can afford a couple of errors as long as he can come back strongly, and no one has a mental approach like him.

He took the maximum 5/5 points from his last President's Cup appearance, when he played the four team games with Steve Stricker, and there is no doubt that the U.S. have finally found the perfect partner. Corey Pavin kept the partnership together at Celtic Manor last year, and was rewarded with Tiger returning 3 points from 4.

That Ryder Cup appearance came after the revelations, after his slump in form, after that disastrous performance at Firestone; the lowest point of his playing career. In the team scenario, he was able to pull himself together and build a telling partnership with Stricker, before taking out Miguel Angel Jimenez in the singles. Couples is banking on a similar performance in Melbourne - it is a strange reversal of the days where those said that Tiger couldn't play good team golf, that singles was where he belonged - a good dose of team golf might be just what he needs.

We all know that Tiger is not what he once was. We all know that an era is over. We disagree on his future - I remain convinced that he has another green jacket with his name on it, and maybe some of the other top prizes as well. The imminent drop out of the top-50 in the world should not be seen as too diabolical an omen - he will be back. To what degree, not even he knows. But he will be back, and this vote of confidence from Fred Couples might be just the fillip to get him going again.

One more reason to pick him? Who can wait now for the President's Cup?

The Final Countdown

With just hours to go before Friday morning's pairings are announced, it's time for a last look at the captains' options for the first two days.

For each of the four sets of matches over Friday and Saturday, the captains must select eight players and omit four. There's been no word from Corey Pavin as to his methods, but Colin Montgomerie has guaranteed all of his players a Friday game, wither in the fourballs or the foursomes. Since Mark James's disastrous singles collapse in 1999, I don't think we'll ever again see any player, let alone three, rested until the singles.

So who will play in the first day's matches?

For Europe, there are the obvious pairings. Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell will be first off the first tee. These great friends and great players have shown their mettle before, and I don't expect either one of them to miss a match - both will be key to European success. McIlroy may be a rookie but, like Martin Kaymer, we all know that that's a ridiculous description. He's going to be a star of the matches.

The second no-brainer is to play the Italian brothers together. Francesco and Edoardo Molinari, qualifying in such different ways, won the World Cup together in China last winter, and you have to expect them to get at least 3 of the 4 matches together. They know each other's games better than any other pairing out of either team, and their games should complement each other nicely - Francesco's steady, tee-to-green solidity, with Edoardo's fiery nature and magical putter.

You can put anyone with Martin Kaymer. I don't wish to disrespect him when I say that the man is a machine. Someone is channelling Bernhard Langer's spirit through this young man only they've picked up a better putter on the way. The rumours are that Lee Westwood will partner the US PGA champion, and no one can deny that it's a mouth-watering prospect. It would also be a clever move - no matter how well Westwood has recovered, it still stands that he's hardly played golf in six weeks, and Kaymer might be the perfect man to ease him back into the competitive zone.

I don't expect to see Peter Hanson, Miguel Angel Jimenez, or Ross Fisher in the morning matches. That leaves us with Luke Donald, Ian Poulter, and Padraig Harrington. Despite his Ryder Cup heroics, I'd leave out Poulter. He's out of form at the minute - give him a foursome match with Fisher in the afternoon, but for the moment stick Donald and Harrington together. Harrington has so much to prove in this competition, but his play in Paris last week (18 birdies in his last 36 holes) was perfect fourball play, and in steady Luke Donald Harrington would have an ideal partner.

Monty has said that all will play on Friday, but I don't imagine that he has his foursome pairings definite yet - he'll have an eye on Lee Westwood's calf and how it's holding up - if he needs to bring Jimenez or Hanson into Kaymer's team it won't cause too much hassle.

Poulter and Fisher have played World Cup together, and Poults will be anxious to continue his Ryder Cup charge.

There is no doubt about it - Europe's pairings are magnificently strong and it's tough to see any of them being beaten. They're not going to have it all their own way though, and we'll see how the American's will line up shortly.

Predicted European pairings:

Friday Fourballs:

1. Graeme McDowell & Rory McIlroy

2. Martin Kaymer & Lee Westwood

3. Luke Donald & Padraig Harrington

4. Edoardo Molinari & Francesco Molinari

Friday Foursomes:

1. Edoardo Molinari & Francesco Molinari

2. Ross Fisher & Ian Poulter

3 Peter Hanson & Miguel Angel Jimenez

4. Graeme McDowell & Rory McIlroy

The Final Countdown - Europe's No. 1

It's all over bar the shouting in Europe, and there has been a lot of shouting.

Across the Atlantic, however, it's only just hotting up. With a little over 24 hours to go before Corey Pavin announces his four wild card picks, several players have one last chance to convince him that they're his men.

So who's going to get the nod?

Tiger Woods is a certainty. Any captain only needs the tiniest excuse to pick the World Number 1, and despite his abysmal play at the WGC Bridgestone, Tiger has shown a bit of form in the last couple of weeks. It hasn't been brilliant, but there's been enough of a spark there to show that the main man is on his way back. His Ryder Cup record is far from stellar, but he's the best player in the history of the world - that alone starts him 1 up in most matches he plays.

There are those who believe that Tiger disrupts the balance of a team - few speak of Azinger's success at Valhalla without noting that Woods was absent - but that's not a case to leave him out. There are plenty of great players on the team this year, and having seen Tiger and Steve Stricker take 4/4 in the President's Cup last year don't be surprised to see them lining up together on the Friday morning.

Pavin has quite a bit of raw youth on the team - Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson are magnificent on their day, but can lose the plot, and Jeff Overton is still looking for that first win. For this reason I expect him to choose a bit of calm and experience - in other words, Zach Johnson and Stewart Cink.

Johnson has come back into form this year with a win in May, and his cool customer persona is just what the Americans need when on foreign soil. He manages his game very well - just look at that Masters win - and seldom misses a putt from inside 8 feet. A solid final round tonight couldn't do any harm, but his name's probably already on the ticket.

Stewart Cink is the last American player to taste major triumph in Britain, and while he's had a quiet year since then, some solid performances in the last month or so have put him in line for a pick. He's been a wild card before, and knows how to reward his captain's confidence. Again, he doesn't lose his calm easily, and he's a solid short game player.

The last pick is difficult. Anthony Kim? Corey Pavin would love to pick him - he, along with Boo Weekley, was the life and soul of that 2008 team, and you know he'll get pumped up away from home. He did nearly enough to qualify before taking time out to have thumb surgery, but has failed to impress in his few performances since then. It would take a leap of faith for Pavin to pick him - if he gets in, he knows he's been lucky.

Sean O'Hair - he put together a couple of decent finishes before missing the cut this week, and he'll be hoping that won't cost him. He is a rookie, however, and Pavin might feel he has enough new blood on the team already. Nick Watney is another who's failed to push through and get those big results - looks like he'll have to wait till next time. Justin Leonard has put in a few big weeks recently and will be hoping the Captain is watching Ryder Cup re-runs - if anyone knows how to win a Ryder Cup it's Leonard.

Monty definitely had the toughest decision of any European captain this year, but it's not going to be a stroll in the park for his US counterpart.

If I had to guess, I think he'll pick the first three and then Kim - he'll bank on the attitude picking up the young man's game.

I personally would take Leonard - at 50ish in the points list it'd be controversial, but the former British Open champion is as experienced as they come for Ryder Cup men - he'll do the job.

We'll know tomorrow.

Luck of the Irish

Was Padraig Harrington lucky to get a Ryder Cup wild card? Of course. But who isn't?

Let's make one thing very clear. If you want to play on the Ryder Cup team, qualify. Anyone who makes the team on merit deserves to be there. Anyone who doesn't, doesn't. Players can give out all they like about the selection process, but it's not as though it's a surprise to them at the end of the year - they knew what the situation was 12 months ago. No one ever deserves a captain's pick (although Edoardo Molinari put that maxim to a severe test on Sunday) and you can thank your lucky stars if you get the nod.

Harrington is definitely the most controversial of the three picks. Molinari showed his class, passion, and grit to win on Sunday and force Monty's hand, and Luke Donald is one of the steadiest players in the world, with a stellar Cup record. So why Harrington?

His record is poor - he didn't win a match in either of the last two outings - and he hasn't won in 2 years. Admittedly, his last two wins were back-to-back majors, but he's failed to perform since then.

Having the right Ryder Cup team involves an awful lot of balancing. A captain is given 9 players and has to decide which three other players will best make up the final team. Individual skill is important, but equally important is their ability to gel with the rest of the team, and to partner as many as possible on the team. The Molinari brothers are an ideal team, but that doesn't mean they'll never be split up.

A captain also has to look at the strengths of his team. In Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy, he has two of the best drivers in the world. Graeme McDowell and Francesco Molinari are two fantastic iron players. Martin Kaymer and Peter Hanson are calm players with steady games.

Padraig Harrington has the best short game of any European player. No doubt about it. He makes pars where bogeys look a pipe dream. He rolls in pressure 6-footers like they were tap-ins. The US team has Mickelson, the greatest wedge player in the world. It has Stricker - one of the most beautiful putters of his generation. You cannot leave out a short game of the quality of Harrington's.

Of course he needs to hit fairways and greens as well, but just look at it in a matchplay context.

Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson are going to be crashing drives past Harrington, putting an iron on the green, and then? If they sneak a few birdie putts past the hole, and this smiling, scary-eyed Irishman keeps making pars from gorse bushes, what's it going to do to them?

He will break your heart in matchplay, and that's what you need on the team.

We can't be sure that Casey, Westwood, McIlroy are going to make those clutch pars. They'll more likely make the necessary birdies. Padraig Harrington will grind like he always does - he'll frustrate the American players - not with wins, but with halves - and wear them down.

Monty got it spot on - nobody wants to play Padraig Harrington in matchplay.

Look at how those three majors came - battling back from disaster to hole the clutch putt on the 18th in Carnoustie, staring down a five-wood to 3 feet at Birkdale, and rolling in a 15-footer for par at Oakland Hills. They took character and guts. That's what you'll get at Celtic Manor.

A man who will not give up.

Calm During the Storm

Having decided that Padraig Harrington's going to win the PGA Championship, it's time to have a look at the non-Irish players best placed to battle him for the Wanamaker Trophy.

Whistling Straits is long and punishing. No player is going to escape trouble this week, and the importance of a scrambling short game cannot be overstated. With 950+ bunkers, the odds are you're going to hit a few of them. By my reckoning, that must mean at least four holes are just bunker.

Not only will a razor-sharp short game be necessary, but whoever lifts that trophy is going to have to have an ice-cold nerve. When all around are losing theirs, he's going to be keeping his head. It's going to be the man who makes the tough pars that'll win this week.

No surprise that I've gone for Harrington then. Anyone who can get up and down from 70 yards to win his first major after playing the worst hole of his career has the bottle required.

So who else is able to play that calm game, and not get rattled by early errors?

Home boy Steve Stricker is definitely in that category - at 43, he's been around the block, and the major's all that's missing from his resumé. Even with a chance to go World Number 1 this week, don't expect him to get the shakes. He's also one of the best putters in the world today, and on a course where holing the 6-footers is going to be crucial he'll be in the mix.

Retief Goosen is a man who's won two majors in trying circumstances with equanimity. His putting isn't of quite the same quality as when he won in Shinnecock in 2004, but his game's picked up in the last two seasons, and he's definitely got something left in the tank. After an appalling 7 to start his 3rd round last week at Firestone, he held it together before shooting a brilliant final 65 to finish 3rd. His long game is straightforward and, in a year where Ernie Els has returned to winning at the highest level, his compatriot won't want to let the Big Easy take all the credit.

Earlier in the year, commentators were questioning whether Luke Donald had what it takes to finish off a tournament. He silenced his critics with a win in Spain, and has continued what's been an excellent season. He's got one of the tidiest swings you'll ever see, and he leads the PGA Tour in sand saves in 2010. If there was ever a man for plodding around the course and getting the job done it's Donald - when all the focus is on his fellow Englishmen Paul Casey and Justin Rose, the pressure's off Donald. The only concern I'd have is that he doesn't hit the ball all that far - but Paul McGinley managed a 6th place finish here in 2004, showing that if you're converting around the greens, you don't have to bomb it.

As for the other big guns, who knows?

Only Tiger knows where his head's at right now, and he could surprise us. I really don't think that Whistling Straits is the place to try and find your game, however, and he's going to be faced with a lot of par putts this week from 5-10 feet. Throughout the season his putting has looked average at best, and I think he's going to have to get a pick from Captain Corey if he's to make the Ryder Cup team.

Phil Mickelson revealed that he's suffering from a form of arthritis, which might contribute to his uncertain swinging in the last few events he's played. Either way, that final round at Firestone must have rattled him, and I don't see him doing the job this week. Maybe the chance to take top spot preyed on his mind, maybe not. If he gets in position he's got the experience to finish it off, but he will be punished if he's as wayward off the tee.

Hunter Mahan was supreme last weekend at Firestone, and he's a confidence player - I'd expect him to challenge. Sean O'Hair is another guy who's been fantastic for the past month or so. Aside from that, I'm going to continue to tip my players of the year, Bo Van Pelt and Matt Kuchar - I think both will feature at Celtic Manor, but a strong finish here would cement their place in Pavin's team.

I first saw Whistling Straits when it hosted the PGA in 2004. It's a unique course, transporting you from Wisconsin back to Ireland and Scotland. Whether it's the nostalgic feeling of watching the pros hacking out of dunes, or the wriggle you give on hearing that the 17th is named "Pinched Nerve", it's a fantastic venue for spectators.

It sounds like a cliché, but I have never seen a major championship that's so open. Any number of players could be in contention on Sunday, but whoever wants to win it is going to have to show some serious nerves.

Just Like Home?

No major championship is ever boring, but not many are like the 2010 U.S. PGA.

Although sometimes treated as the forgotten major, its crucial timing in a Ryder Cup year always piques the interest. This year, that's not the only reason.

The PGA is being played at Whistling Straits, one of the most unusual and spectacular courses on the American continent. Host to the PGA in 2004, the course is modelled on the links courses of Ireland, with signposts pointing east to Ballybunion, Royal Portrush, and Portmarnock stationed outside the clubhouse.

As with so many top US courses, it was the genius of Pete Dye that brought Herb Kohler's dreams to reality. Dye and wife Alice came to the shores of Lake Michigan, shifted some soil around, got some dunes going, and hey presto - you'd think you were in Co. Kerry.

The course is long - certain holes require close to a 300-yard carry off the tee - but the emphasis is on accuracy. Paul McGinley, not noted for his length, finished 6th here in 2004 when Vijay Singh took the title. As with most majors, you can't have a weakness, but the focus is on hitting fairways and scrambling. On a course with an average of 53 bunkers per hole, you've got to be confident of getting up and down - you're not going to avoid them all.

So how will this semi-Irish course suit the Irish players? The wind will blow, and as Graeme McDowell has already noted, there'll be days when he'll feel like he's at Portrush or Royal County Down. It should give a slight advantage to the British and Irish players, but not much more than that. The top players in the world these days know how to play links golf - just look at how tough it's been to get a homegrown winner of the Open.

One man whom it might help more than others is Shane Lowry - with far less experience of major golf than his fellow countrymen, he'll feel more at home on this course than he would on Hazeltine, or Baltusrol. With his one win coming in the gales at Baltray, Lowry will be looking to capitalize on any advantage present. I don't expect him to contend seriously, but a solid 3-day performance at the Open shows that his game's in decent nick, and I'd be confident of him making the cut.

Darren Clarke had a decent finish here in 2004, tying for 13th place, and some recent form will give him hope this week. However, the fact is that his priorities have changed in the last few years. He showed at Loch Lomond that he still has some great golf left in him, but to expect him to hold it together for four days at the highest level is to much to ask. While he still harbours hope of making the Ryder Cup team, he can realistcally look forward to being a very important vice-captain.

Graeme McDowell is looking to reignite his game after the inevitable come-down following his U.S. Open triumph. He showed some good form last week in Ohio, and the course should suit him down to the ground - he hits it long and straight, is a fantastic iron player, and isn't afraid to make the putts he needs. I expect to see him in the mix this week, and when he gets pumped he's tough to stop.

Rory McIlroy - The bookies have him at 3rd favourite in the field, and they know what they're doing. He's continuing his relentless run of good golf, shooting four rounds under par last week at Firestone, one of only two players to do so (the other being Bo Van Pelt - tune in tomorrow).

He's steadily moving towards one of the top spots in the world, and the first major isn't too far away. I've always worried slightly over his putting, but since his win at Quail Hollow it seems to be in better shape, and if he can roll the ball well this week he's got to be a contender.

Finally, the main man. His last win worldwide came at the U.S. PGA two years ago, and that's not right. Padraig Harrington is back - he's always a slow starter in the season, hitting his straps once summer rolls around, and his performances in Killarney and Ohio have shown him to be hitting form just in time for the final major. The fact that his putting was off in his T-9 finish last week actually encourages me - it shows that his long game's back in shape, and let's face it - Harrington's putting's never going to be dodgy for too long.

I honestly think Harrington is going to win this week - the focus is still there, and the game is rejoining it. He loves nothing better than going head to head with the world's best, and he's got as much major experience as anyone out there now. The fact that a win would secure his spot on Monty's team for Celtic Manor would be icing on an already delicious cake.

I'll be back tomorrow to weigh up the chances of the non-Irish players in the field, but they'll have their work cut out to beat Paddy.

Team America

So we've looked at who Monty's going to have carrying the flag for Europe in October. What's the opposition going to look like?

Once again, let's be self-indulgent and look at my team a year before the matches, last September:

Tiger Woods

Phil Mickelson

Steve Stricker

Stewart Cink

Lucas Glover

Anthony Kim

JB Holmes

Boo Weekley

Hunter Mahan

Nick Watney

Jim Furyk

Ben Curtis

The most notable absentee is probably Zach Johnson, and after getting his career back on track with a win last month he looks in good shape to make Corey Pavin's team. His strength is in his consistency, and he seems to have got it back. The man to lose out might well be Ben Curtis - he showed class in the Valhalla matches, but has done little since. The one reason to be wary of writing him off is that he has tended to up his game in the summer - watch out for him on the links, where he's tasted major success, as well as putting in a close finish in 2008.

Boo Weekley, the crowd hero of the 2008 matches has failed to fire at all since then, and is well down the rankings. You get the feeling that he might be a captain's pick for his team spirit alone, but, like Sergio in Europe, he's going to have to give Pavin a bit of form to justify the choice - there are too many quality players vying for spots just to give one away for free.

Stewart Cink is in the list mainly by virtue of his Open victory at Turnberry last year - with so many points still available he's going to have to up his game a little to hold his place.

So how about the guys fighting for a spot?

Matt Kuchar has been one of the most consistent players on Tour this year, despite not taking home any silverware yet. With 5 top 10s in 2010, he's ranked at 10 in the Ryder Cup points.

Ben Crane has won already this year, and I fancy him again both this week in Memphis and at Pebble Beach. He's a great ball-striker who's got it rolling on the greens recently as well. At no. 8 in the list, with his current form, he looks a strong favourite to make it to Wales.

Next up are Ricky and Rickie. Rickie Fowler, undoubtedly one of this blog's favourites, showed class last week both before and after Justin Rose took the title from him. He's had 5 top 10s this year - not bad for a rookie. You get the feeling that the win is only so far away, and he's knocking on the door for Pavin's team. Remember his Walker Cup record - 7/8. Everyone wants to see McIlroy-Fowler sooner or later. It might just happen this autumn.

As for Ricky Barnes - he's followed a good showing in the Masters with some steady play, a Saturday 62 last week lifting him to a T-3 finish. He came close at the US Open last year, so we know he likes the majors. Even if he doesn't qualify on merit, he'll be in Pavin's mind if he keeps up his form. He was US Amateur Champion back in the day, so you know he likes his matchplay.

Finally, Dustin Johnson. A winner at Pebble Beach earlier this year where he defended his title, he'll be looking forward to the US Open returning there. He hasn't done much since then, but he sits at 7 in the Ryder Cup list, so a good summer will guarantee him a spot. He's the kind of guy you want playing fourball for you - smashes the driver as far as Alvaro Quiros and has a surprisingly deft touch around that green.

There are others in the mix - Sean O'Hair, Bo Van Pelt, Jeff Overton, Bill Haas, who all have work to do to push on in, whilst Nick Watney and JB Holmes need good summers to hang on to the places I gave them last year.

As for Tiger Woods, let's have no more of this nonsense.

He'll be there.

Ryder Cup Watch

Last September, I drew up a list of the teams I thought would face off at Celtic Manor this October for the Ryder Cup. Having found the lists in an untroubled drawer, they make interesting reading, with only 3 months of qualification left. We'll get to the Americans next week, but let's have a look at who I thought Monty would have on the first tee in Wales.

Padraig Harrington

Lee Westwood

Robert Karlsson

Henrik Stenson

Paul Casey

Ian Poulter

Graeme McDowell

Rory McIlroy

Sergio Garcia

Ross Fisher

Martin Kaymer

Alvaro Quiros

Of Nick Faldo's team, I'd decided that Justin Rose, Soren Hansen, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Oliver Wilson would fail to reappear. Despite Miguel's win in the Gulf earlier this year, I'll stick by that decision. As for my 12 players - I'm happy with most of them, but there are a couple who look a little bit wobbly. What's more, there are guys not on that list who've mounted a charge.

The most obvious absence is Luke Donald, in the light of his performances over the last few weeks. Donald has had a great season, with a few solid finishes Stateside, before returning to Europe and collecting a 2nd place and then a win. His triumph on Sunday has hopefully silenced those who doubted his killer instinct. The pressure was on after his late, late disaster in Wentworth the week before, and he proved himself up to the task. He now looks set to be on the bus to Wales in the autumn, and with a record like his (5 1/2 out of 7), Monty will be delighted.

Donald is such a steady player that he suits the format perfectly - he'll keep a foursomes game chugging along, and can be the reliable player in a fourball to allow his partner burn it up.

Donald has a 4/4 record in the foursome matches, all played with Sergio Garcia.

Sergio's the man over whom the biggest question mark floats. He's had a lousy time of it. He won in the Orient in December 2008, and since then he's fallen off the radar. His mental game's shot, and his putting's still useless. Surely that makes it easy - he won't qualify, and he doesn't deserve a pick. Not quite.

Sergio's always seemed able to turn it on in the Ryder Cup. He's brilliant in the team matches, whether with Jesper Parnevik or Luke Donald. After missing every putt for months beforehand, suddenly they all roll in. He's a firey, energetic player, and you need a couple of them in your locker room.

When he fails to qualify, there'll be a lot of chat about the picks. Can Monty afford to give him one. If he shows any form at all in the summer he'll get one - he's got a couple of majors and a WGC to go at in the last 6 weeks. Without that justification though, it'd be a brave captain to choose him.

What about the Swedes? I'm still confident Karlsson will make it - he's got a win this year and he showed in Wentworth that his game's on the mend. He needs a little more consistency, but I see him challenging strongly at the Open this year, and I think he'll qualify.

Stenson is a trickier one - he's been out of form since winning the Players last May, and he's shown no signs of coming back. Unless he mounts a charge in the summer, he ca kiss his chance goodbye.

The man who might well jump into his shoes is Wales' one shot at a home boy. Rhys Davies has showed his talent this year, with a win in Morocco and a couple of runner-up spots. He's a good ball-striker, a wonderful putter, and has the grit that'll be oh so important come Ryder Cup Sunday. The way he's playing at the moment, he might make it on merit, but he'll certainly be at the front of Monty's mind.

Apologies to Simon Dyson and Ross McGowan, but I think they'll drop off the automatic spots pretty soon. One man who won't go away so easily is Francesco Molinari - he showed his team play with big brother Edoardo in the World Cup, and both bros are pushing for spots. Francesco's playing in Wales this weekend, and I fancy him to finish at least top-5.

So there you go. Really, I've no idea of what's going to happen. If I had to cut three from my list, it'd be the Swedes and Sergio. Ross Fisher has work to do, but he strikes me as a guy who makes most of his money in the summer months.

The team's going to have a mix of talents - steady grinding, scrambling, raw talent, big hitting, and deft touches.

One thing's for sure - it'll be a team bursting with quality.

American Idol

Everyone knows about Rory McIlroy. He's no longer a callow rookie who’s fun to watch, but a seasoned pro whose name will be on that Sunday leaderboard more often than not. He’s big in Europe, he’s big in America. McIlroy’s the sort of guy the fickle American fans can get behind, and believe me, that means a lot if you’re playing the PGA Tour. Just ask Colin Montgomerie.

But do the Americans have their own McIlroy on the rise? Is there a young, exciting player in the States who’s going to carry the flag in future majors and Ryder Cups?

How about Rickie Fowler?

Still a virtual unknown this side of the water, Fowler is fast making a name for himself in the US. The number one ranked amateur golfer in the world for 36 weeks in 2007 and 2008, and twice Walker Cup-player with a 7-1 record, he hit the headlines in 2008, shooting -1 in the first round of the US Open.

He turned pro at the end of last year, and finished T-7^th in his PGA Tour professional debut in October. A week later, he lost to Troy Matteson in a playoff at the Frys.com Open, just his second Tour event as a pro. Last month, Fowler had another opportunity to win in Scottsdale, before finishing second to Hunter Mahan.

To get a feel of what Fowler’s like – you have to see him, you have to hear him. He’s a flashy-dressing, motorbike-jumping, swashbuckling guy, and he brings it all to the golf course. His swing is a homemade thrasher of a swing, terrifyingly fast, but it gets the job done. During that 2^nd place last October, he had an eagle in each round and a hole-in-one.

He doesn’t watch himself for hours on video, he doesn’t over-analyse his game. He just goes out there and plays golf. In interviews he seems cool and collected. Maybe he’s going to need a bit of analysis to improve over the years, and as he matures I’ve no doubt this will come. At the moment though, he’s a breath of fresh air on to the ever less dominant PGA Tour.

How does he compare with McIlroy? Physically speaking, they’re the same height, weight, and Fowler’s just 5 months older. They even have similarly terrible haircuts.

There’s no doubt that McIlroy is the more polished player – he has the classic swing and more professional manner, but there’s more to the comparison when you go deeper. Both rely on their long games a little too much, and need to hole some more putts. Both are ready to take on that big shot when it really counts. Both love the pressure of competing. Despite Fowler’s wilder approach to the game, he’s got a coolness and maturity about him that make you feel he’s here to stay.

Rory McIlroy is a future World No. 1. He’s going to win at least a few majors and heaps of Ryder Cups. Rickie Fowler – we don’t know. He’s still the raw youth that McIlroy was two years ago. He probably doesn’t have the consistency to ever be the best player in the world, but he’s going to compete. I’ve no doubt that he’ll face McIlroy down the stretch of tournaments to come, and he’ll prevail in some of them. They’ll play Ryder Cups against each other, and they’ll share some wins there.

Rickie Fowler is the perfect sportsman for the American fans – he’s young, wild, attractive, and talented. He’ll play to the rowdy crowds, and get pumped up on Sunday afternoons. He’ll miss three cuts running and win the next week out. The sponsors have noticed this and every week he’s a got a new “fashionable” look.

For some time the US Tour has lacked what Europe has in spades – the early 20s players of the next generation. It’s great to see Ernie, Furyk, Mickelson and co. winning, but we also need to see who’s waiting to take over.

Watch Rickie Fowler.

One On One

Certain weeks of the year are special. Augusta. Open Week. The Ryder Cup is perhaps at the top of the tree. But the Accenture World Matchplay isn't far behind.

Whether to play or to watch, matchplay is exciting. It's a totally different game - the player who churns out 4 70s every week can pack up early - you need to be able to turn on the gas to triumph this week. 64 one day mightn't be enough, a 73 tomorrow could win 3&2. Every shot your opponent hits changes your own game plan, no matter how many pros say they just play their own game.There'll be matches ending on the 12th green, and players still going on the 24th teebox.

So who's going to win? Some players suit the format - in the early 1900s US amateur Jerry Travers was practically unbeatable in matchplay but couldn't string 4 rounds together in strokeplay. Geoff Ogilvy is the latest Accenture king, with 2 victories and a runners-up spot in four appearances. With a win from his only tournament so far this season, and a third child for him and his wife, the easygoing Australian will be feeling good again. He faces Swede Alexander Noren in the first round, and you've got to think his pedigree will count against the rookie.

That being said, we'll have upsets in the first round, as always. Matt Kuchar could be a decent long odds bet against Ryder Cup hero Anthony Kim, and expect Padraig Harrington to have a tough ride against Jeev Milkha Singh. Francesco Molinari will be looking to continue his good form into a win against Zach Johnson, and Chris Wood will fancy his chances against Lee Westwood, who has had little success in the Matchplay for a player of his talent.

The Gary Player bracket looks to be particularly strong this year, with Ogilvy, Westwood, Henrik Stenson, and Ernie Els heading it up. Stenson is a former winner of this event, and at 30/1, Els is my pick for the championship. A quarter-final loss last year his best performance, the Big Easy nonetheless has a phenomenal matchplay record throughout his career, and with 3 top-12s from 3 this year so far, I think it's Ernie's time to shine. A win against Ryan Moore in his first round could set up a clash with Retief Goosen, another resurgent South African. Let's face it though - there won't be any easy matches all week.

Prime match-ups of the first round?

Robert Karlsson v. Rory Sabbatini

Ross Fisher v. Thongchai Jaidee

Padraig Harrington v. Jeev Milkha Singh

Ian Poulter v. Justin Leonard (Plenty of people expect the fiery Poulter to go far after his Ryder Cup success)

Luke Donald v. Graeme McDowell (Tough to call, but I reckon Donald's a good bet to reach the quarters)

Camilo Villegas v. Dustin Johnson (Johnson's coming off a win at Pebble Beach, and will fancy his chances against the Colombian making his first appearance of 2010)

Hunter Mahan v. Charl Schwartzel

Stewart Cink v. Edoardo Molinari (Cink has finished 2nd and 3rd here in the past, and after his Open win last year should put in another solid performance, while Molinari will be hoping to set up a clash with his brother in the quarter-finals.

Check out the comments below to see how I think the draw will pan out - at the moment my quarter-finals are:

Steve Stricker v. Ian Poulter

Ernie Els v. Geoff Ogilvy

Lucas Glover v. Luke Donald

Stewart Cink v. Paul Casey

Who knows just how wrong I could be - prediction is a fool's game this week, but who'd complain with those for our final 8?

Keep in touch here to stay up to date with the week as it progresses. Until then, enjoy the golf.

It's What You Do, Ain't The Way That You Do It

A W's a W.

In 10 years time, that's all you'll see on the scoresheet. There'll be the obsessive golf fans and bloggers who'll be able to take you through the last four hours play, but the win's what counts.

Dustin Johnson will never win another tournament with such a poor last round, but that shouldn't worry him. When the going got tough, he got going. Just about.

There've been some topsy-turvy final rounds on Tour in the last few years - who could forget Rory McIlroy's near-collapse in Dubai last year before getting up and down from a bunker to win? Sound familiar? Dustin Johnson had three bogeys, a double bogey, and an eagle at Pebble Beach before that closing birdie, and you can bet he didn't feel comfortable once.

It looked to be a two-horse race at the day's beginning, with Johnson and Paul Goydos 4 shots ahead of a pack led by J.B. Holmes. The younger, big-hitting horse stumbled at the first, and when he failed to par the par-5 2nd, it looked like he was going to have a few nerves to contend with.

Goydos had a shaky start too, and at the turn Johnson was a shot behind, having cancelled out his eagle with a three-putt from nowhere at the 9th. Holmes started fast, but the engines cooled and he was struggling to put pressure on the frontrunners. Leave it to David Duval - without a win in nearly nine years, Duval rolled back the clock to give himself a shout at the title - a costly 6 on the par-5 14th meant that he would just miss out in the end.

The turning point for Johnson came on the 15th, one hole after Goydos had ruled himself out with a disastrous 9, following young Bryce Molder, who suffered a similar fate in the group ahead, down the leaderboard. Johnson played a poor chip from behind the green, leaving himself 6 feet for par. He rolled it in, and for the first time all day looked to have some composure. A bogey on the 17th piled the pressure back on his shoulders for the daunting final hole, but when J.B. failed to pick up a shot a birdie would be enough. A massive drive and an iron into the front bunker left Johnson a straightforward up-and-down, which he duly converted to defend his title.

He won it ugly, but it's another win, making him the first player since Tiger Woods to win in each of his first three seasons on Tour. Is he the real deal? All we saw yesterday was that he's not immune to pressure. Then again, who is? When it came to it he made a big putt on 15, and then played the home hole with guts. Let people criticise his smashing of the driver in a final round - he hit plenty of fairways - if you have a strength, play to it.

That's the sort of win that makes you that bit stronger when you're in that position again. And he will be in that position again. Following his bronze finish the week before, Johnson's risen to World Number 25, and will have one eye firmly on Corey Pavin's Ryder Cup team, vice-captained by? You got it - Paul Goydos.

The PGA Tour's delivered some smashing finishes in the last month, and we're heading into one of the best weeks of the year. 64 players head to Tucson for the World Matchplay, also known as Geoff Ogilvy's personal playground. Johnson against Camilo Villegas is just one of several mouth-watering 1st round matches, and don't be surprised if Johnson gets off to a flyer. His swashbuckling game might well suit the one-on-one format - with birdies and eagles galore the odd bogey can be alright.

Tune in tomorrow for a preview of the Matchplay, and a few tips for who might triumph in the desert.

Has-Beens, Will-Bes, or...Ares?

Last week we had a look at those players I’m confident will make Monty’s team for the 2010 Ryder Cup. Now we’re going to start on the slightly longer list – who are the guys battling it out for the remaining four spots?

This week we’ll look at the players who made up the rest of Nick Faldo’s losing team in 2008.

Miguel Angel Jimenez: The Mechanic has played in 3 Ryder Cups already and was Seve Ballesteros’s vice-captain in 1997. As a player, he hasn’t had great success in the team, only taking 1 ½ points in his last two outings. On the other hand, it is easy to imagine him playing a key role in Colin Montgomerie’s dressing room.

Will he qualify on merit? Despite having four 4th place finishes on the European money list over the last 11 years, he’s failed to crack the top 10 in the other years. He’s been a streaky player, and unless another streak starts his Cup career could be at an end. His 2009 has been solid, but without a win, and it just looks like there are too many young guns vying for the spaces to allow Jimenez a chance.

Robert Karlsson: As far as I’m concenred, once he’s healthy, nothing else matters. He’s been plagued by eye problems all this year, and won’t feature again until October. As we saw last year, he’s a top-class player, and unbelievably consistent, with 11 top-10s and two wins. He’s got a beautiful swing and sorted out his putting nicely. You’ve got to feel he needs a month of golf this year before a winter break to get him ready for next year’s campaign, and it’s very possible that the time out of contention will count against him. But if he’s back and seeing clearly by Christmas, watch out – he’s enjoyed his Ryder Cup experience so far, and he’s the sort of calm, steady player you want in a tight match.

Justin Rose: I can’t see him making it. He had a great Ryder Cup last time, taking 3/4 points, two of which were with European hero Ian Poulter. This year, however, he hasn’t got his game going. Playing a lot of his golf in the US, a top-5 three weeks ago is the only result of note, while he picked up a top-15 in the Open Championship. Poor old Justin’s career has been dogged with flashes of his obvious talent, and stretches of mediocrity. He showed in Valhalla that the format suis him, taking some big scalps, but his form has slipped again and I don’t see him making the cut

Ian Poulter: The man was brilliant last year. After losing his first match, he won all four remaining to be Europe’s top scorer. A wild card last year, he’ll be looking to get straight through the system this year. Skipping the last event last year and eliminating the possibility of automatic qualification, his pick was criticized, but we all shut up once he performed. Always a firey player, the Ryder Cup is his thing – getting pumped and passionate. With 11 top-20s in the States this year and a 3rd place in France, Poults has showed reasonable form this year without reaching his own standards. I expected him to get moving from around July on, but he’s still winless in 2009. The reward of a Ryder Cup berth in itself should be enough to get Poulter charged up to win next year, and I’d hope and tentatively expect him to make it.

Graeme McDowell: With a brace of wins in 2008 and a solid Ryder Cup performance (2 ½ out of 4, including a spectacular final-hole victory with Poulter over Jim Furyk and Kenny Perry), we were looking to G-Mac to become one of the greats this year and start to contend in the majors. It hasn’t worked out like that so far, his 10th place finish in the US PGA being his solitary top-10 this year. Perhaps this is just a transitional period, and he settles into his new station in golf. Like Poulter, he’s an immensely talented player with fire in his belly, and he loves to win. You can be sure he’s eyeing up a place in next year’s team, maybe alongside Harrington or McIlroy.

He’s still a young man, and he’s got a major-winnign future ahead of him – I’m fairly confident he’ll get his game in shape and mount a serious challenge for a place.

Oliver Wilson: Last year’s bridesmaid, with five runner-up finishes in the calendar year, he’s struggled to get his game going again this year. His 9th place slot in the Race to Dubai is founded primarily on that final 2nd place in November, and after great performances in the WGC events in February and March he hasn’t had a top-10 finish since. He was underplayed in Faldo’s team in Valhalla, winning his one team match with Henrik Stenson, before losing to an exceptional performace from Boo Weekley.

I can’t see him making it this time unless he gets a win soon – the longer you go without a win, particularly if you come 2nd, the more difficult it becomes to close out a championship when the time comes. I hope we’ll see more of him in the future, because I really like him as a player, but it won’t be at Celtic Manor.

Soren Hansen: Next week’s column will be looking at a couple more Scandinavian competitors, but for the moment we’ll stick to Soren. In 2008, he only took ½ a point from 3 matches, but he was partnered with an out of sorts Lee Westwood and playing opposite hometown favourite JB Holmes each time. He played great golf under pressure to qualify for Faldo’s team, and is continuing that run this year after a slow start. He’s another guy who needs a win to show he still knows how, but they way he’s playing it isn’t too far away. With the number of places I’ve already given out, it’s getting pretty competitive for the final spots, and Hansen’s going to have his work cut out. He’s a gutsy player, but I don’t think he’ll make it without a victory on Tour. If he gets that early in the year, watch out.

Next week we'll look at more potential rookies - who'll be pushing for the final spots?

The Race Is On

Every year it gets tougher to pick who’ll be on the Ryder Cup team. More and more new stars are born each year, and the old faces aren’t going away. It’s hard to believe that Karlsson and Stenson were rookies on the team in 2006, and, as we’ll see, our rookies next year could be among some of the world’s top players.

This blog will look at a few of the golfers who I regard as near certainties to make the team, while the next few will look at possible qualifiers and noteworthy absentees.

Padraig Harrington: After a troubling first half of the year, including missing 5 cuts in a row, he found his form again at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational. The collapse there and at the US PGA the following week will remain with us for some time, but the important fact was that his new swing has settled, and he’s playing the best golf of his life. A double bogey on the back nine on Sunday also caused him to lose out in the Barclays, but he’s one of the mentally toughest player on Tour, and I expect him to win again very soon.

There’s no question over his qualification for Celtic Manor, and I expect him to top the list. He didn’t have a great time in Valhalla, but he was suffering from a stomach bug at the time. Only Tiger can hold a candle to him in terms of pressure putting, and he’s going to be a lynch-pin of Monty’s team.

Henrik Stenson: The big-hitting Swede has seemed to be a bit quieter this year, despite having the biggest win of his career at Sawgrass in May. He had a few top-5s at the beginning of the year, but since the Players hasn’t really threatened again. He finished in the top 15 of the last 3 majors, showing that he gets his game going for the big occasions. He’s still ranked 6 in the world, and there are no signs of his going away. Expect him to pick up at least one win before the year is out, quite possibly in Cologne this week. He’s played in two Ryder Cups already, and his calm under pressure has been crucial to the team. Stenson is still improving all the time – the Players was a big step in his career, and a win like that can take some adjusting to. He’s going to have a major victory in the next 2 years, and he shouldn’t have any trouble qualifying for Wales.

Lee Westwood: Westwood needs a win. He hasn’t won in just under two years, and the pressure keeps building. He’s still in the world’s top 10, and 4th in the Race to Dubai, but you get the feeling that a victory will kickstart his career again, particularly where majors are concerned. He’d a great chance in Turnberry to win the Open, but a 3-pputt at the last cost him a playoff spot. Every week he plays these days I expect him to win; he’s worked very hard on his short game this year and it’s really beginning to show, while his driving has long been amongst the best in the game.

Lee is one of the best Ryder Cup players Europe has produced (8 1/2pts out of 10 in the 2004 matches and 2006 matches alone), and I expect him to be Monty’s main leader on the course next year. It’s unlikely that his great friend Darren Clarke will make the team, but everyone would love to see them get their winning partnership going again.

Paul Casey: Casey has stepped up a gear in 2009. With two wins in Europe and one in the USA, he made a dramatic move up the world rankings to 3rd place, slipping back to 4th in the last few weeks. Apart from his win in the BMW, his summer hasn’t really got going, with all his best golf being played between February and May. When he won in Abu Dhabi I mentioned his putting, which was the area he struggled with in Valhalla, almost negating his value to the team. It’s now at a level where he can compete properly on the world stage. He’s another man who is re-adjusting his targets after the year he’s had, and another who’s not far off a maiden major.

Casey can be a streaky player, and it’s important for him to get his Ryder Cup campaign off to a good start; if he doesn’t qualify I’m sure he’ll be in line for a pick, but no one wants to leave it to that chance.

Perhaps most important this year was his performance at the Accenture World Matchplay. He played stunning golf, only losing in the final to Geoff Ogilvy, who was, quite simply, unbeatable that week. He’s a determined competitor, which is exactly what we’ll need in Celtic Manor. With three Ryder Cup appearances already, he should make a 4th comfortably.

Ross Fisher: It’s almost a surprise that Fisher will be a rookie next year; he already seems to have an experience and maturity of players far longer on Tour. He still only has two wins on Tour, and is without a victory in 2009, but he has shown a new ability to take on the big guns of world golf. He was in contention in the US Open and the Open Championship, and while his Open chances disappeared with an 8 halfway through the round, he actually held the rest of his round together admirably.

His good performance at the Acenture (4th) shows a liking for matchplay all-important for Ryder Cup success.

He definitely needs a win in the next few months to get his confidence high. He’s 4th in the Race to Dubai and 26th in the world, but there’s nothing like a victory to really get you going again. He’s a major champion of the future and, I’m confident, a Ryder Cup star. I expect him to qualify for the team on merit, by virtue of a couple of wins between now and then, backed up with a solid all-round year. Watch out for him this week in Germany.

Martin Kaymer: The young German was very unlucky to miss out on the Ryder Cup in Valhalla last year, winning twice on Tour and having to miss several weeks due to his mother’s death. He did spend the week with the team however, on Faldo’s invitation, which can only have left him determined to make it next year.

Back-to-back wins this summer and a top-6 in the US PGA have left him sitting on top of the Race to Dubai, although a broken foot means that he’ll be unable to defend his position until October, by which time he may have been dethroned. He still has a great chance to be Europe’s number one this year, however, and don’t be surpirsed if he wins again before Christmas, perhaps even in Dubai.

He’s a beautiful player to watch; I’ve said before that I think he’s going to be World Number One at some point in his career, although at the moment there’s a guy called Tiger who seems to like it there.Majors won’t be too far off, even if not in the next couple of years, and he should make Monty’s team on merit. He seems like the sort of guy who’ll play a lot in Europe and give due value to the Race to Dubai, which is always a positive for young players.

Rory McIlroy: Approaching the end of his second full year on Tour, McIlroy is still well in the hunt to win the Race to Dubai. He failed to perform on Friday and Saturday in Switzerland last week, but his final round 64 was a joy to watch. His putting has come on considerably this year, even since his win, and he’s loking more and more like the overall package every time he tees it up. A top-3 at Hazeltine showed how his major game has improved, and he’s going to keep challenging for the big four every year. Who knows when he’ll win his first, but once it comes, several more won’t be too far behind.

His mental game is excellent – he has a mixture of confidence and calm crucial to all great players. He held it together to win in Dubai after a terrifying near-collapse on the back nine, with Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose breathing down his neck.

He’s another player to whom the epithet “rookie” seems absurd, but the more the merrier. I have no doubt that he’ll make Monty’s team, and that it will be the first appearance in a long Ryder Cup career.

Sergio Garcia: Alright. I’ll let him on to the certain list. Sergio is such a frustrating player to watch. He has oodles of talent which he so often refuses to convert into wins. His problem has long been his putting, and I haven’t seen signs of it improing this year. When he doesn’t start sinking some, he often continues for the whole week, and wins by a distance. He hasn’t had a great season in 2009, failing to really challenge for the majors, but is still a top-10 player.

On the plus side, he’s a fantasic Ryder Cup player. It seems to be the one week when he turns on the putting, and his commitment to the the team and passion cannot be questioned. He will probably qualify for the team himself, as he always brings out a few good performances every year; with his class, he couldn’t not.

Competition is getting tougher all the time, so he will need to have a good 2010.If he didn’t make it, you’d expect him to get a pick – Monty knows the importance of Sergio to the Ryder Cup as much as anyone, having featured on 4 teams with him.

So there you are. I’ve decided that these eight men win definitely play in Wales. Am I just picking the best ranked Europeans? To be fair, they are then the best players. But no – there are guys in there who really want to make the team, who recognize its great honour and history.

Given the competition, one or two of them might miss out on automatic places, but unless their form hits a dramatic slump, I’d expect them to get the nod from the captain. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take 8 of the 9 qualifying spots.

Keep an eye on the blog – in a day or so I’ll begin to look at the players I haven’t mentioned: Does Jimenez have another Cup in him? Will McDowell and Poulter renew their gutsy partnership? Is there a new generation of Ryder Cup Spaniards in Quiros, Castano, and Larrazabal?

And So It Begins...Again

The Omega European Masters is upon us in Crans-sur-Sierre, Switzerland. Just another tournament on the Tour to the ignorant, this is one of the highlights of the year for true golf fans. It's the week when it all begins to matter again, when the clock is started again. 51 weeks from Sunday evening we will know the 12 members of Europe's Ryder Cup team for Celtic Manor 2010. Some of them may be assured of their place by Jun or July, others will have to scrap it out till the end, perhaps even relying upon Monty's 3 picks to see them through. This Sunday, 60/70-odd players will receive a paycheck to start them on their way.

The tournament can use this focus to its advantage - a strong field is assembled in the Alps, with Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy, Miguel Angel Jimenez, and Oliver Wilson just a few of the main contenders. McIlroy missed out on a maiden win here last year after missing a 2-foot putt in a playoff, after already taking 4 shots from within 100 yards on the 72nd hole. Jean-Francois Lucquin was only too pleased to capitalize on the youngster's error, and the Frenchman will be looking to find a return to form at the scene of his triumph.

McIlroy has certainly come far in the last year, moving up into the world's top 20 golfers, and picking up 3 top-20s in major championships, including a 3rd-place finish most recently at the US PGA. Although he will hope to pick up his second win of the season this week and banish the demons of last year, a repeat of last year's 2nd place would propel him to the top of the Race to Dubai standings, unless Lee Westwood (champion in 1999) takes the win.

It is remarkable to think that so young a man and so new a recruit to the professional ranks (2009 is only his 2nd full season) could be so close to being Europe's number one player, and yet it is extremely possible. He looks in good form, he obviously likes the course, and his ambition is endless. Martin Kaymer, current leader of the Race, is out for at least a month with broken foot bones, and Paul Casey (2nd place) is playing in the United States.

The Race is hotting up, and McIlroy and Westwood will look to take their chance this week to heap pressure on the absentees.

There are plenty of other likely contenders in the field this week. Simon Dyson, after a win two weeks ago, is back in action at Crans. Ever a streaky player, Dyson will be intent upon maintaining his current form to give himself a start in the Ryder Cup battle. He is a man who I have thought has the talent to make the team, but hasn't managed to put together a convincing run of form when it counts.

Darren Clarke, a favourite of the blog, has shown patches of form this year, and hopefully he'll be on song this week; unfortunate to miss out on a place in Faldo's team, the big Ulsterman will want to regain his place in a competition to which he has given so much.

Clarke's compatriot Graeme McDowell is also looking for a late kick-start to his season - after a couple of wins last year helped him into the Valhalla team, a single top-10 in 2009 has been a disappointing follow-up. He's a fiery player though, and while I don't expect him to win this week, watch out for him as the season draws to a close - I expect him to put a few points on the board before Christmas.

Bradley Dredge and Ricardo Gonzalez are also former winners in the field; Gonzalez had a fantastic win in Sweden 3 weeks ago, while Dredge has said that Celtic Manor provides an extra incentive to all of the Welshmen on Tour to try and make Monty's team.

Francesco Molinari, meanwhile, is a man to keep an eye on for the week.

Prediction? Westwood and McIlroy to both finish in the top 5, with a win for one of them. They're both excellent drivers of the ball, and so should be able to take the rewards granted by the thinner Alpine air. They've both performed well at the course before, and they're both hungry for success - McIlroy wants to show Monty what he's going to have from the outset; Westwood needs a win after a two-year drought, and will revel in the chance to head back to a once familiar spot at the top of the European rankings.

Over the coming days and weeks, we'll take a look at a breakdown of the various players in contention for Celtic Manor - who's expected to make the team, who'll surprise, and who might surprise the wrong way. We might even have a look at the Yanks.

Back To His Best

With no disrespect to double champion Richard Sterne and the excellent events he won in South Africa in December, the last couple of weeks have seen the start of the 2009 European Tour proper, at least as far as viewers are concerned.

 A stellar field assembled in Abu Dhabi, with 2008 Player of the Year Padraig Harrington joining defending champion Martin Kaymer, and Sergio Garcia making his first appearance since his victory at the inaugural Race to Dubai event in Shanghai. Miguel Angel Jimenez, Ross Fisher, and Henrik Stenson were all back in action in what was a magnificent tournament once again.

Sergio and Harrington both admitted that they weren't on top of their games coming into the week, but they certainly looked comfortable by Sunday, having secured a steady top 10 to start the calendar year.

Martin Kaymer showed his class once again, defending his title as staunchly as Mark Selby did his in the snooker Masters in Wembley this week. Unfortunately, Kaymer went the same way as Selby. He simply couldn't get things going on the back nine, until he rolled in a 30 footer on the last for an eagle to tie Louis Oosthuizen for 2nd place, one shot behind Paul Casey.

The week belonged to Casey. He played the best golf I have seen him play in a long, long time. His long game, particularly his driving is always excellent, but anyone who watched the Ryder Cup will remember that his putting left a lot to be desired in Valhalla. There was no such weakness in the desert this week, as he putted beautifully on the way to a 3rd-round 63, placing him firmly in control of the trophy.

 On Sunday, he did well to hold his nerve on the back nine after three bogeys in four holes saw him slip back to the slavering pack (no offence to Oosthuizen and Kaymer).

Ultimately, he showed his class in closing out the tournament with pars. It's not surprising that his form didn't continue into Sunday - it's very rare that a 54-hole leader by several shots shoots a better final round than his pursuers, the temptation is to play defensively. To his credit, Casey didn't do so until the bogeys crept on, having extended his lead to 6 shots by the 11th hole. Only last year, we saw Martin Kaymer drop a six shot lead in the last round to scrape over the line in similar fashion.

Casey had a solid if unremarkable season last year on Tour, with a handful of top 10s and a below-average Ryder Cup. His last win came in the same event in 2007, but with a win back under his belt there's no reason he won't go on to pick up a few more this season, and indeed challenge in the majors.

It was another fine week for Rory McIlroy, notching up his third top 5 in his last 4 events. McIlroy has had an excellent winter, with 7 top 10s in 10 starts. He's leapfrogged Northern Irish compatriot Graeme McDowell to lie at 35th in the world, and has made clear his intentions of making it into the top 20, if not the top 10, by the end of the season.

An ambitious claim? Perhaps, but the movement in the golf rankings is fairly fluid once you get below, well, No. 1. 

However, I've said it before - if McIlroy wants to get the wins he will get, he's got to hole a few more putts. He shot a great 65 on the last day at Abu Dhabi, but it was never going to be good enough, after he failed to capitalize on a good long game on Saturday. As I've written before, it's not that he's a bad putter, it's simply that he doesn't hole his share of 20-footers. When you miss one it's not a disaster, but if you look back at the round and see you haven't holed any, you won't be holding the trophy.

I'll be back in a day or two with a preview of the Qatar Masters and a word on the European Ryder Cup captaincy. 

Until then.