Blue Monster

Another week, and another World Golf Championship. This week the setting is the Blue Monster at Doral, for the Cadillac Championship.

Just as any preview in the last 10 years began with a look at Tiger Woods, so too does any current preview start with Martin Kaymer. The German is the best player in the world at the moment, and is justifiably the favourite for every event he plays. He lost to Luke Donald in the final of the WGC Matchplay, and was undoubtedly beaten by the better man – Donald was almost unplayable that whole week. Even in losing though, it was impossible to watch Kaymer without marvelling at the steadiness and confidence of every facet of his game – he has a classy swing, a beautiful putting stroke, and a wonderful temperament. There’s never going be the dominance of the Tiger era at World No.1 again, but Kaymer will be in and around it for a long time to come.

This week, how are his chances? Excellent. He’s the best player in the world. He also finished T-3 here last year; even when you’re the best, a liking for the course does wonders. It was his first real statement to the Americans that he was the real deal, and after his PGA success last August, he’ll be eager to add to his global tally.

Doral’s greens rank among the easiest on tour, and players are rewarded for aggressive iron play and putting. Who springs to mind? Who else but U.S. Open champion Graeme McDowell. Admittedly I tipped him last week as well, but he came good in the final round – a course record 64 giving him the perfect boost coming into this week, and a tournament where he finished T-6 last year. He’s a fantastic iron player and he makes his clutch putts. He loves the big events, and he loves winning them – only Martin Kaymer has won more tournaments (5-4) in the last 12 months. Even without the U.S. Open win, he won at Celtic Manor, Valderrama, and took out Tiger in his own backyard. G-Mac has a bundle more tournaments coming his way, some of them majors, and a couple of WGCs wouldn’t do him any harm at all.

Tiger Woods update – he says he’s making great progress with Sean Foley, and is feeling better about his game. I’m confident he will return to winning ways soon enough, but it’s unlikely to be this week. It’s always great to see him on the course though, and I look forward to watching him back in action.

Last year Doral hosted the South African show – a battle between legend Ernie Els and his protégé Charl Schwartzel. Ernie hasn’t been in great nick so far this year, but he’s won this championship twice, and despite losing in the 2^nd round in the Matchplay looked to be putting well, which is all I ever really look for – with a swing like that, you’re not going to go too far wrong.

Schwartzel is playing some great golf at the moment – he’s got a string of top-10s across the world and shot three rounds under par in the Honda last week (a feat matched by only 3 others). He’s a horses for courses man, and will have fond memories of last year. You can bet your life that Ernie will want to beat him again, but if the Big Easy’s out of the running he’ll be giving Schwartzel any help he needs.

My last player to focus on is my favourite for the last 12 months or so. Matt Kuchar has played as well as any American over the last year, winning the 2010 money list despite only picking up one victory. His consistency is incredible, helped by a great putting stroke and easy-going personality. He’s going to contend everywhere – he let a good position slip in round 3 last week at the Honda, but I’d expect him to be in the mix come Sunday afternoon this week – he finished top-10 last year and has come on leaps and bounds since then.

Who am I leaving out – Westwood, McIlroy, Stricker, Furyk, Poulter – I’ll be honest and say I don’t see them winning or, aside from Westwood, even challenging. Luke Donald is certainly a good prospect – when he gets into a run of form he rides it well. Phil Mickelson is Mr. Unpredictable this year, following his 2^nd place to Bubba with some underwhelming performances in the last few weeks. As ever, you never know what he’s going to pull out of the bag.

As you'd expect when the world's top 50 players are in action, a great week of golf is in prospect. With the Europeans growing ever stronger, don't be surprised if they make it one more at Doral.

Just Like Home?

No major championship is ever boring, but not many are like the 2010 U.S. PGA.

Although sometimes treated as the forgotten major, its crucial timing in a Ryder Cup year always piques the interest. This year, that's not the only reason.

The PGA is being played at Whistling Straits, one of the most unusual and spectacular courses on the American continent. Host to the PGA in 2004, the course is modelled on the links courses of Ireland, with signposts pointing east to Ballybunion, Royal Portrush, and Portmarnock stationed outside the clubhouse.

As with so many top US courses, it was the genius of Pete Dye that brought Herb Kohler's dreams to reality. Dye and wife Alice came to the shores of Lake Michigan, shifted some soil around, got some dunes going, and hey presto - you'd think you were in Co. Kerry.

The course is long - certain holes require close to a 300-yard carry off the tee - but the emphasis is on accuracy. Paul McGinley, not noted for his length, finished 6th here in 2004 when Vijay Singh took the title. As with most majors, you can't have a weakness, but the focus is on hitting fairways and scrambling. On a course with an average of 53 bunkers per hole, you've got to be confident of getting up and down - you're not going to avoid them all.

So how will this semi-Irish course suit the Irish players? The wind will blow, and as Graeme McDowell has already noted, there'll be days when he'll feel like he's at Portrush or Royal County Down. It should give a slight advantage to the British and Irish players, but not much more than that. The top players in the world these days know how to play links golf - just look at how tough it's been to get a homegrown winner of the Open.

One man whom it might help more than others is Shane Lowry - with far less experience of major golf than his fellow countrymen, he'll feel more at home on this course than he would on Hazeltine, or Baltusrol. With his one win coming in the gales at Baltray, Lowry will be looking to capitalize on any advantage present. I don't expect him to contend seriously, but a solid 3-day performance at the Open shows that his game's in decent nick, and I'd be confident of him making the cut.

Darren Clarke had a decent finish here in 2004, tying for 13th place, and some recent form will give him hope this week. However, the fact is that his priorities have changed in the last few years. He showed at Loch Lomond that he still has some great golf left in him, but to expect him to hold it together for four days at the highest level is to much to ask. While he still harbours hope of making the Ryder Cup team, he can realistcally look forward to being a very important vice-captain.

Graeme McDowell is looking to reignite his game after the inevitable come-down following his U.S. Open triumph. He showed some good form last week in Ohio, and the course should suit him down to the ground - he hits it long and straight, is a fantastic iron player, and isn't afraid to make the putts he needs. I expect to see him in the mix this week, and when he gets pumped he's tough to stop.

Rory McIlroy - The bookies have him at 3rd favourite in the field, and they know what they're doing. He's continuing his relentless run of good golf, shooting four rounds under par last week at Firestone, one of only two players to do so (the other being Bo Van Pelt - tune in tomorrow).

He's steadily moving towards one of the top spots in the world, and the first major isn't too far away. I've always worried slightly over his putting, but since his win at Quail Hollow it seems to be in better shape, and if he can roll the ball well this week he's got to be a contender.

Finally, the main man. His last win worldwide came at the U.S. PGA two years ago, and that's not right. Padraig Harrington is back - he's always a slow starter in the season, hitting his straps once summer rolls around, and his performances in Killarney and Ohio have shown him to be hitting form just in time for the final major. The fact that his putting was off in his T-9 finish last week actually encourages me - it shows that his long game's back in shape, and let's face it - Harrington's putting's never going to be dodgy for too long.

I honestly think Harrington is going to win this week - the focus is still there, and the game is rejoining it. He loves nothing better than going head to head with the world's best, and he's got as much major experience as anyone out there now. The fact that a win would secure his spot on Monty's team for Celtic Manor would be icing on an already delicious cake.

I'll be back tomorrow to weigh up the chances of the non-Irish players in the field, but they'll have their work cut out to beat Paddy.

Back on Track

It's been a long time coming, but Padraig Harrington finally looks to have got going in 2010.

Maybe that's unfair - he's had a host of top-10 finishes, but the reality is that that simply isn't good enough. A man with his credentials isn't happy unless he's in the winner's circle, and he hasn't tasted victory since that last major triumph two years ago.

All this year I was convinced another win was just around the corner. Harrington always starts the season slowly - while Charl Schwartzel and Richard Sterne fill their boots in February and March, Paddy waits until summer swings around. From early this season he continued to amaze around the green, making pars from sand and water, from bush and tree, from road and grandstand. He couldn't seem to hit a fairway, and yet still ground out scores. Grinding isn't enough though - he never seemed to be able to pull out a 64 or 65 when required.

Last week in Killarney, things were different.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday - he rescued decent scores. He put himself in contention, but was going to need a big round on Sunday to have a chance. He found it.

His driving straightened up, and he hit some of the best irons I've seen him play all year. His approaches to the par-4 15th and par 5 16th were perfect examples. As always, he made the putts. Shooting 64 was all we could have asked of him - Ross Fisher played too well to be caught. While missing out on another home crown is a disappointment, Harrington knows the big picture - he's got his game in shape in time for the WGC this week, the last major of the year, and he's all but sewn up his spot on Monty's Ryder Cup team.

Padraig Harrington is the best clutch putter in the world right now. When Tiger's head is right, it's a toss up, but right now you can't beat Harrington for up and downs. All you need to do is look into those eyes and you'll see the calm, almost terrifying, focus. What he's lacked this year is the ability to kick on and make a charge when the leader forges ahead. On Sunday he showed that he's got it back. His back nine run was magnificent to watch - but for that birdie putt sliding by on the 17th Ross Fisher was in for a nervy last hole. Everyone on tour knows you don't want a matchplay finish against Harrington when he's on form, and he's found form at the right time.

I'm not going to say anything about the Bridgestone last year because the memories are too painful. I don't expect Harrington to win it, because with fairways as narrow as Akron's I think he still needs another few rounds to get his driving together. But look on it as a preparation for the PGA at Whistling Straits the next week. Pick up a top-10 in Akron, and move on.

Harrington's priorities have changed since winning those three majors. He can now afford to have more exact goals. The majors and the Ryder Cup are what he looks at first. It's no surprise that he's looking to fire on all cylinders just in time for both.