Home Comforts

For the first time in nearly 60 years, Royal Portrush is playing host to the Irish Open. Given the success of Northern Irish golfers in the last few years, expectations have never been higher for local heroes to succeed, and with over 100,000 fans expect to turn out, the 2012 Irish Open will be one to remember.

The question is, can one of the local boys do the business?


Rory McIlroy is not playing well. After missing three cuts running, he had a chance to win the St. Jude Classic before hooking a 3-wood into the water on the 72nd hole. Despite his top-10 finish, he still didn’t look in control of his ball, and the fact that he managed to stay in contention is testament to his talent. It was fairly unsurprising, however, that his bad play was found out at the U.S. Open. The Olympic Club was not a venue where you could get away with bad golf – you could barely get away with good golf – and McIlroy crashed out on Friday afternoon.

Having taken a week off following the major he is now back home, not too far from where it all began for the World Number 2. The question is, is that a help?

There’s no doubt that he will receive tremendous support from the home crowd, but the fact remains that his game does not seem ideally suited to links golf. He has produced some moments of magic, particularly at St. Andrew’s, but for a man who grew up in Northern Ireland his links game is distinctly questionable. After a disappointing finish in last year’s Open Championship, he gave a somewhat childish interview in which he didn’t seem at all inclined to try to adapt his game to links golf, stating that it’s only one week of the year. Not the attitude you want from a man tipped to conquer the golfing world.

He has moved to the United States, and plays most of his golf there now, where the clear weather, mid-20s temperatures and cultivated courses suit his undoubtedly superb game. With plenty of rain forecast for the weekend at Portrush, we might well see another cold and uninspiring performance from McIlroy.

I can’t see him missing the cut again – I reckon sheer willpower to keep the fans happy will see him through to the weekend – but he just doesn’t seem to have the control over his long game that will be necessary to contend on this tough golf course.

Prediction: 30th-40th place



I get the feeling that Graeme McDowell is pretty excited. If you ever want a golfer who loves a pressure situation, is prepared to go toe-to-toe with anyone and believes he will win every time he goes out, look no further than the 2010 U.S. Open champion. I really didn’t see him going as close as he did at the U.S. Open, but once again he showed that he can find form when he needs to. With Furyk struggling on the final day I expect McDowell to close it out, but a couple of errors ended up costing him dear. He showed his scrapping qualities throughout, right up to a gutsy birdie on the 17th and a great iron shot on the last to give him a chance of the playoff.

Everyone wants to win their home event, but I don’t think anyone is as up for it as McDowell. He’s been a big supporter of trying to get tournaments back to Portrush, and he’ll want to show everyone that he rules the roost there. We know McDowell is a great iron player and pressure putter; add to that some local knowledge and a willingness to fight all the way to the line, and I think you might just have the 2012 Irish Open champion. Expectations and pressure can overwhelm some players – Graeme McDowell seldom gets more than whelmed. I’m ready to jump back on the G-Mac bandwagon – I think he goes very close this week.

Prediction: Champion



Padraig Harrington gets an awful lot of stick for constantly looking to make changes to his swing – “you’ve won three major championships,” they cry – “Why change anything?” The fact is that that’s just the kind of player he is. He’s a technically-minded man, and is always looking to improve how he hits the ball. Those majors are due in no small part to this attribute, and when he gets back in the winner’s enclosure, it might finally silence the nay-sayers.

Certainly, anyone who’s been watching him for the last 15 months or so must accept that he’s been close to playing very well, and in the last two months alone he looks to be hitting it brilliantly. Oddly enough, the problem holding him back from winning in the last few weeks seems to be his putting from 6-15 feet – usually his strength, his stroke just looks a little bit tentative at the moment. You can’t win if you’re not holing those putts, and the quality of his performances of late just shows how good his long game is. Harrington birdied 7 of 8 holes last Saturday – that is not a very Harringtonesque performance. Where is the grinder of Carnoustie?

I don’t believe you lose as good a putting stroke as that at his age, and I’m confident he’s going to start holing them again and start winning again.

With all the focus on the Northern boys this week, you can bet your life that Harrington would love to remind them who has three majors in the cupboard, not to mention an Irish Open title. However, having played 7 of the last 8 weeks, and with three in a row taking place in California, Connecticut, and Ireland, you’d have to worry that fatigue might be beginning to set in. He’ll get a rousing reception from the crowd, and I hope he can ride that to success, but I can’t quite see him doing the business this week. Closing out a tournament isn’t easy when it’s been nearly 4 years since your last, and I think we might have to be patient and allow Harrington a few Sundays where he goes close before he brings home the bacon again. He’s still got plenty of wins left in the tank and, in my opinion, one more major.

I think tiredness might be an issue this week, but I’ve no doubt that his good form will carry him through to a strong performance once again.

Prediction: 15th - 25th place


Graeme McDowell recently reminded the world that “it’s been nearly ten months since a Northern Irishman won a major championship”. No one doubted McIlroy’s or McDowell’s rise to the top, but there were plenty of joyfully surprised fans who watched Darren Clarke lift the Claret Jug last July. Back in the day, I was convinced that Clarke would taste major success (and fairly sure that Harrington wouldn’t) but I have to admit that I had given up hope by the time the Open rolled around again last year. In absolutely foul conditions, Darren Clarke delivered, quite simply, the finest exhibition of links golf that I have ever seen. He schooled the field in how to play the course and the weather, and put the gloss on his career that it richly deserved.

Since then, Clarke’s form has been pretty poor. He spoke of struggling to set new goals for himself – given his age and achievements he seemed to be lacking the hunger necessary to contend. He’ll be as proud as anyone that the Irish Open has returned to Northern Ireland, however, and you can be sure that he’ll do his utmost to lift his game. Form isn’t his only worry – he’s been struggling with a groin problem which caused him to miss the U.S. Open two weeks ago. The word is that he’s recovering well from it, but you never know exactly how fit you are until you’re tested in tournament conditions.

I can’t see any way that Clarke will be a force in this championship, but I hope that he can find some form, and make the cut, if only to give his many fans a couple more days to watch him play.

Prediction: Missed Cut


But for a 77 on Saturday, Paul McGinley could well have been in the final shake up for the BMW Championship last week in Germany. As it was, a closing 66 left him one shot out of the playoff. He has to be disappointed with the 3rd round performance, but a third top-7 finish in four weeks is proof that McGinley is rediscovering the type of form that saw him lift the Ryder Cup three times with Europe. Without a tournament win since 2005, McGinley’s career has been steadily waning since that last Ryder Cup appearance at the K Club in 2006. Tipped by many to lead Europe in Gleneagles in 2014, the Dubliner seems to want to show the world that he’s not quite ready for the desk job yet. Always a tidy player, he’ll be looking forward to taking on what he describes as one of his favourite courses in the world and improving on his 5th place finish in Baltray in 2004.

I don’t think McGinley has what it takes to win the event, but as a man in form, he’s another prospect for the fans to get behind.

Prediction: 30th - 40th place


Supporting Cast


There are several other Irish hopefuls playing, from the bigger names of Damien McGrane and the in-form Peter Lawrie all the way to Alan Dunbar, the 23-year old Amateur who captured the British Amateur with a courageous final hole victory last week. Lawrie is the most obvious to give it a real crack, but on a links course, you never know which Irishman might just find a purple patch.


Invaders?


Outside of the Irish, here are just a few names to watch. Although Simon Dyson won his Irish Open title in Killarney, he has shown that he enjoys his links, and I would expect Dyson to put up a strong defence of his crown.

Paul Lawrie is playing his way on to his second Ryder Cup team, and if you don’t back a Carnoustie champion on a tough links course, who do you back?

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano still looks wobbly over his shorter putts, but the Spaniard has thrown in a couple of good finishes with some missed cuts. I’d expect him to be in the mix this week.

Francesco Molinari already has a win this year, and will be keen to show his game is ready for the Open Championship. As solid a ball-striker as you can get on the European Tour, look for the Italian to be in the top 10 on Sunday.

Ross Fisher is playing well again. His 2010 win in Killarney shouldn't be given too much weight as it was on a parkland course, but when he's in form, he's a very dangerous player.
Finally, Chris Wood had his chances last week, but he can temper the disappointment with a return to links. With top-5 finishes in the 2008 and 2009 Opens, and a strong showing at Baltray 3 years ago, the tall Englishman has displayed his aptitude for links golf. Back in form this season, he should contend once again.

Leading the Way

The world is marvelling at Northern Ireland’s success in majors. How can such a small country produce so many fine golfers? Three out of the last six major championships belong to Northern Ireland, including two U.S. Opens, that most fiercely guarded of American titles. The quality of golf course in Northern Ireland is a factor, as well as the style of game – you don’t grow up playing Royal Portrush without becoming an inventive and intelligent golfer. But let’s forget for a moment the individual players who have triumphed recently, and look at a general trend. There would seem to have been a power shift in modern golf, back across the Atlantic, for the first time in nearly a century. In the early days of the game, the Scottish dominated, up until the late 19th century, when Harry Vardon and J.H. Taylor, to name but two, brought the titles to England. By the time the 1920s had drawn to a close, however, Walter Hagen and Bobby Jones had firmly swung the needle towards America, where it would remain. Major championships were hoarded, Ryder Cups were rarely competitive, and the American dominance grew and grew. It took nearly 50 years for a European to win the U.S. Masters (the great Severiano Ballesteros) and, while that victory did lay the foundation for a fruitful period for European major winners (Nick Faldo, Bernhard Langer, Sandy Lyle, Ian Woosnam and Jose Maria Olazabal) it was difficult to say that the momentum had shifted completely. Perhaps it might have, had there not followed another barren period after these, during which the European could win Ryder Cups to beat the band, belying their lower world rankings, but could still not claim golf’s greatest honours. Then, Padraig Harrington happened. Of all of the players on Tour in the early 2000s, Harrington would not have been many’s first choice to break the major duck. No one could argue with his determination, but a host of 2nd-places was still fresh in the memory, and he had nowhere near the talent of Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia, Paul Casey and Darren Clarke. But grit and determination proved to be key. In 2007 he picked up the Open Championship. Many (particularly across the pond) spoke of this win as something of a fluke, citing the final-hole debacle. Try getting up and down from 80 yards to save a major and call it a fluke. When he successfully defended his title the following year (the first European since James Braid [1905, 1906] to do so), all they could mutter was that he was well-suited to links golf. And so Harrington deprived them of any argument by going to Oakland Hills and stealing the U.S. PGA Championship from their back garden. As he holed that 15-footer on the last to win, Ewen Murray spoke the words “Padraig Harrington joins the legends of the game”. Three major championships in the last six confirmed Harrington as a great. Since then, it is not only the Northern Irish who have triumphed. European Tour members picked up the last four majors, with Martin Kaymer citing Harrington as the man who showed them the way. Four Europeans lead the world rankings, with three of them having shared the top spot in the last year. There is no longer a fear factor in the majors. Europeans now believe they can win in any field in the world. A lot of credit must go to Harrington for this. In the same way that Seve opened the door to Augusta in 1980, Harrington has guided this new generation to the top. Of course they are brilliant golfers, many of them better than Harrington, but it was his doggedness that led to Europe believing in itself again. No more can Europe be damned with the faint praise of “being a great team” (although they still are), but unable to take the individual honours. How long will Europe hold the aces? Hopefully not too long. It’s healthy for the game to have top players from all around the world, and the game today looks like it has just that. Jason Day has shown that he’s willing to take on anyone in the final round of a major, and Charl Schwartzel is ready to take mentor Ernie Els’s place. Y.E. Yang has brought major success to Asia, and he won’t be the last. Americans will still have their say – just try and keep Dustin Johnson and Nick Watney away from the majors for much longer. As for Harrington? He’s not done yet. He heads to Killarney this week to the Irish Open, another tournament that he opened up for home winners again in 2007, but I reckon he might have had enough of other Europeans thanking him for their success. He wants another taste. And he’ll get it.

Major Player

Now let’s all calm down. Journalists, golfers, fans. Rory McIlroy has won one major. Yes, it was incredible. Yes, it was one of the finest exhibitions of golf I’ve ever seen. Yes, the manner in which he won bodes for many more to come. But it’s still only one major.

So let’s not talk of Jack Nicklaus’s record, of dominance a la Tiger Woods, of a Rory Slam…let’s not allow the future that many see for him cloud the magnificence of his achievement. Already fans are building themselves up for disappointment in the Open in July if McIlroy fails to contend. He’s a young man, he still has plenty of work to do on his game. Yes, there are many more tournament and several more majors to come, I don’t doubt it, but don’t get carried away. Let’s enjoy McIlroy’s burgeoning career as it grows, and not be ever-gazing at a distant target, so difficult to achieve.

Jack Nicklaus won 18 majors. He won them over 24 years, almost to the day. That alone is remarkable. No one else had that kind of sustained brilliance over their career. His win in the 1986 Masters, aged 46, closing as he did with a 65, remains one of the greatest performances in golfing history.

All his life, Tiger Woods was chasing that number. And he seriously believed he could do it. 14 majors on, it looks like his challenge may be fading. I believe that he will be back, that he will win at least one more major, maybe two or three. But five? Maybe after 14, five doesn’t seem a difficult prospect. But let’s put it into context. No player currently playing professional golf, aside from Tiger, has won five majors in their career. Mickelson has four, Harrington, Els and Vijay have three. They’re all in the autumn of their careers. Tiger needs more than they’ve won in their career to top Jack. And, realistically, he needs them in the next six or seven years.

What about McIlroy? Harrington, before the final round, lost the plot and said that Rory was the man to beat Jack’s record. Down-to-earth, sensible Padraig Harrington. So how many does he need? 18. 18 major championships. If he plays at the highest level until he’s 40, he needs one a year. Maybe he’ll still be competitive after 40, who knows? One a year for 18 years, dare I say it, just isn’t realistic. Yes, maybe he’ll have years where he wins two. Three? Only Tiger and Ben Hogan have won three professional majors in a year. Four? Get out of here. Not going to happen.

Even if McIlroy does have the talent, and the patience, and the discipline, and the desire to win all these (and he does, don’t get me wrong), just have a look around. Mickelson isn’t done yet. Nor are McDowell and Kaymer. Charl Schwartzel, always one of the brightest talents in the game, has kick-started his career at a new level with his Masters triumph. And then there are guys who haven’t won one yet – Lee Westwood, Luke Donald, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Nick Watney, Hunter Mahan, Matteo Manassero, Francesco Molinari, Bubba Watson, Paul Casey…the list goes on. There are so many exceptional players on tour now, that every major championship will have several serious contenders for the title.

If you take a look at the list of multiple major champions, 15 of the top 18 won the vast bulk of their majors before the early 80s (Tiger, Nick Faldo, and Seve are the exceptions). What does this tell us? Maybe not a lot. Then again, maybe it does. There are more high-quality players on tour now, who have the capability to win majors, than there were when Jack Nicklaus was around. That’s not to downplay his achievement – having Arnie, Player, Watson and Trevino around didn’t make it easy – 18 majors is incredible – but I don’t think it’s realistic these days. Look at when Byron Nelson and Sam Snead were cleaning up on the PGA Tour – seriously cleaning up – in 1945 I think only two or three other players won PGA Tour events. Nowadays, even if you’re missing Woods, Mickelson, Kaymer, McIlroy from a field – you can still have Bubba, DJ, Kuchar and Watney – all potential major champions.

Tiger Woods dominated the sport for about 10 years. He won over 25% of the tournaments he played. The average round of a player paired with Tiger on Sunday was a stroke or two above their usual Sunday average. He was a presence. I’m willing to say that no one will dominate the game in that way again, certainly not in my lifetime. Tiger showed a glimpse of his old self at Augusta this year, when he mounted a final round charge. But his opposition didn’t back off. Schwartzel and Day just looked him in the eye, and charged right alongside him. Players aren’t scared of him anymore.

I don’t think they’ll be scared of McIlroy either. He showed his humanity at the Masters – he is susceptible to pressure. McIlroy will be World Number One one day, but that position looks like it’s going to be a bit more fluid for the next while. He should win a heap of tournaments, and a few more majors. As to more than that, I don’t know. We’ll have to wait and see.

Don’t build McIlroy up as the man to hit the magic number 19. Don’t turn every major victory into a mere statistic, a mere hurdle on the way to that goal. Recognize him for what he is – a very rare talent in our game, who will entertain us for many years to come. Don’t just look at the destination. Let’s enjoy the journey.

Crunching the Numbers

Historically the toughest test of all golf championships, the U.S. Open is the one week left where the U.S.G.A. can inflict pain on the top professionals in the world. Characterized by tight fairways, high rough, fast greens and consequentially high scoring averages, the U.S. Open can only be won by a golfer who keeps his game and head in check throughout four days of gruelling competition. Last year saw Graeme McDowell become the first European in 40 years to lift the trophy, after he withstood challenges from Gregory Havret, Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods and Ernie Els. Dustin Johnson played three great rounds but to no avail, imploding on the front nine on Sunday to leave licking his wounds and imagining what might have been.

This year the tournament heads to Maryland, to Congressional Golf and Country Club. The U.S. Open was held there in 1997, when Ernie Els (-4) finished a shot ahead of Colin Montgomerie to land his second U.S. Open title. Give the 14-year gap, and the changes made to the course since then, we can’t glean too much information from the final leaderboard – aside from Els, Jim Furyk is the only current payer with a top-10 at Congressional’s last showing.

At a 7,500 yard par 71, Congressional looks to be fitting the mould for U.S. Open courses – the greens will be fast, and the rough at its shortest will be between 3 ¾ and 4 inches deep.

So who can triumph? I’ll be back later in the week with more detailed previews and tips, but right now, let’s look at what some of the key stats will be in a week where the focus has to be on damage limitation. Par is seldom a bad score in this tournament, and the 2011 edition looks like it won’t be any different.

Ball-Striking

You must find fairways and greens at the U.S. Open. The organizers will be sure to keep the greens slick and well surrounded by run-off areas, so making par after a wayward iron shot can be nigh on impossible. As for hitting the green from the rough, you’re going to need a bit of luck. In 2004, most players took on Shinnecock Hills with fairway woods off the tee – Vijay Singh took a different approach – he decided to whack the driver almost everywhere, but trust that he’d be able to muscle 8 and 9-irons from the rough if he missed the fairways. He went into the weekend leading the Greens In Regulation stats. Congressional is longer than Shinnecock, but the Vijay tactic should give hope to some of the bombers, who will hope to use their length to set up shorter approaches.

Take Bubba Watson – despite ranking 92 in driving accuracy on tour, he’s number 2 in distance (surely he’s not happy about that), and he manages to top the GIR stats on the PGA Tour. He’s number 2 behind Boo Weekley on the PGA Tour’s Ball-Striking stats (combination of Driving & GIR), and with a short game like his, he should be a serious contender this week. Also clocking in high up on the ball-striking list are Hunter Mahan (T4), Nick Watney (9^th), Sergio Garcia (T10), Dustin Johnson (14^th), Adam Scott (16^th), and Matt Kuchar in 18^th place. Justin Rose (23^rd) and Graeme McDowell (25^th) close out the top 25.

Two guys a little further down to note are Steve Stricker in 34^th place and Luke Donald who ties for 42^nd.

All of these guys would be on my shortlist to contend this week, so it’s encouraging to see that they’re doing the first part right. The stats only give us so much obviously, and guys a little further down the list can make up the difference with higher rankings around the greens, but these numbers do at least show us that big hitters like Bubba and Dustin can still come up with decent GIR numbers, although the punishment at Congressional might be more severe.

Scrambling

You must be able to save par. Birdies are all well and good, but at a U.S. Open the guy who walks off with the trophy will have made a hell of a lot of good pars. Whether from bunkers, thick greenside rough, run-off areas, or 100 yards back in the fairway after a chip-out from the rough, you must get up and down time and again. With Phil Mickelson’s wedgeplay, you have to wonder how he hasn’t won it yet – remember, though, he does have 5 runners-up finishes.

So who gets it up and down the most on tour?

Unsurprisingly, we have a few of the season’s early winners high up in the rankings – two-time champion Mark Wilson tops the chart, while Memorial champ Steve Stricker comes in in 3^rd. World Number One Luke Donald clocks in at 6^th, while former U.S. Open winner Geoff Ogilvy (7^th), Zach Johnson (8^th), KJ Choi (9^th) and Matt Kuchar (13^th) also have good numbers. Padraig Harrington and Mickelson come in at 16^th and 17^th respectively. Nick Watney (T23) and Retief Goosen (25^th) finish out the top 25.

These guys have 11 major championships between them, and bear in mind that Stricker and Donald don’t own any. Yet.

A lot of these names are high on the list of bogey avoidance (obviously) – Stricker, Kuchar and Donald make up 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd, with Nick Watney placing 11^th and Phil Mickelson T15 with Justin Rose. To his credit, Sergio Garcia places 21^st on this list, despite not being the greatest scrambler of all time.

Putting Inside 10ft

The last stat we’ll look at is percentage of putts made from within 10 feet. In any tournament, the guys who make all their 5, 6, 7-footers will be in contention, but nowhere more so than the U.S. Open. We’ve talked about the importance of making those pars when you need to – plenty of them will be around the 10-foot range – there’ll be some good 10-foot bogeys made too, you can be sure of that.

Geoff Ogilvy and Zach Johnson score well again, placing 2^nd and 4^th respectively. 2009 U.S. PGA Champion comes in at T6, while Brian Gay (T11), Ryan Moore (13^th) and Retief Goosen (14^th) have good showings. Those two guys I keep coming back to – Donald and Stricker? 17^th and 21^st. Harrington places T22 while Nick Watney closes out the top 25.

So there you have it. A few key numbers to consider when picking your tip for the U.S. Open. Obviously, the system is flawed – I’ve been using the PGA Tour stats (because, being American, they’re an awful lot better than those provided by the European Tour) and so players like Martin Kaymer, Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy and Miguel Angel Jimenez won’t appear.

For your guidedog, here are a few scrambling numbers from the European stats – Reitef Goosen takes 2^nd place, Sergio surprisingly makes it in at 6^th (although with fewer rounds), while Matteo Manassero and Martin Kaymer are in 8^th and 9^th place. Jimenez and Westwood are respectable as well, placing 13^th and 18^th.

McIlroy, Kaymer, McDowell, Poulter and Manassero all place in the top-20 in GIR.

What does it all mean? Who knows? But it’s no surprise that the names that seem to come up in all aspects are those of Luke Donald, Mr. Consistent Steve Stricker, and star of the future Nick Watney, as well as guys who’ve won the championship before.

Make of it what you will.

The Final Countdown

With just hours to go before Friday morning's pairings are announced, it's time for a last look at the captains' options for the first two days.

For each of the four sets of matches over Friday and Saturday, the captains must select eight players and omit four. There's been no word from Corey Pavin as to his methods, but Colin Montgomerie has guaranteed all of his players a Friday game, wither in the fourballs or the foursomes. Since Mark James's disastrous singles collapse in 1999, I don't think we'll ever again see any player, let alone three, rested until the singles.

So who will play in the first day's matches?

For Europe, there are the obvious pairings. Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell will be first off the first tee. These great friends and great players have shown their mettle before, and I don't expect either one of them to miss a match - both will be key to European success. McIlroy may be a rookie but, like Martin Kaymer, we all know that that's a ridiculous description. He's going to be a star of the matches.

The second no-brainer is to play the Italian brothers together. Francesco and Edoardo Molinari, qualifying in such different ways, won the World Cup together in China last winter, and you have to expect them to get at least 3 of the 4 matches together. They know each other's games better than any other pairing out of either team, and their games should complement each other nicely - Francesco's steady, tee-to-green solidity, with Edoardo's fiery nature and magical putter.

You can put anyone with Martin Kaymer. I don't wish to disrespect him when I say that the man is a machine. Someone is channelling Bernhard Langer's spirit through this young man only they've picked up a better putter on the way. The rumours are that Lee Westwood will partner the US PGA champion, and no one can deny that it's a mouth-watering prospect. It would also be a clever move - no matter how well Westwood has recovered, it still stands that he's hardly played golf in six weeks, and Kaymer might be the perfect man to ease him back into the competitive zone.

I don't expect to see Peter Hanson, Miguel Angel Jimenez, or Ross Fisher in the morning matches. That leaves us with Luke Donald, Ian Poulter, and Padraig Harrington. Despite his Ryder Cup heroics, I'd leave out Poulter. He's out of form at the minute - give him a foursome match with Fisher in the afternoon, but for the moment stick Donald and Harrington together. Harrington has so much to prove in this competition, but his play in Paris last week (18 birdies in his last 36 holes) was perfect fourball play, and in steady Luke Donald Harrington would have an ideal partner.

Monty has said that all will play on Friday, but I don't imagine that he has his foursome pairings definite yet - he'll have an eye on Lee Westwood's calf and how it's holding up - if he needs to bring Jimenez or Hanson into Kaymer's team it won't cause too much hassle.

Poulter and Fisher have played World Cup together, and Poults will be anxious to continue his Ryder Cup charge.

There is no doubt about it - Europe's pairings are magnificently strong and it's tough to see any of them being beaten. They're not going to have it all their own way though, and we'll see how the American's will line up shortly.

Predicted European pairings:

Friday Fourballs:

1. Graeme McDowell & Rory McIlroy

2. Martin Kaymer & Lee Westwood

3. Luke Donald & Padraig Harrington

4. Edoardo Molinari & Francesco Molinari

Friday Foursomes:

1. Edoardo Molinari & Francesco Molinari

2. Ross Fisher & Ian Poulter

3 Peter Hanson & Miguel Angel Jimenez

4. Graeme McDowell & Rory McIlroy

Luck of the Irish

Was Padraig Harrington lucky to get a Ryder Cup wild card? Of course. But who isn't?

Let's make one thing very clear. If you want to play on the Ryder Cup team, qualify. Anyone who makes the team on merit deserves to be there. Anyone who doesn't, doesn't. Players can give out all they like about the selection process, but it's not as though it's a surprise to them at the end of the year - they knew what the situation was 12 months ago. No one ever deserves a captain's pick (although Edoardo Molinari put that maxim to a severe test on Sunday) and you can thank your lucky stars if you get the nod.

Harrington is definitely the most controversial of the three picks. Molinari showed his class, passion, and grit to win on Sunday and force Monty's hand, and Luke Donald is one of the steadiest players in the world, with a stellar Cup record. So why Harrington?

His record is poor - he didn't win a match in either of the last two outings - and he hasn't won in 2 years. Admittedly, his last two wins were back-to-back majors, but he's failed to perform since then.

Having the right Ryder Cup team involves an awful lot of balancing. A captain is given 9 players and has to decide which three other players will best make up the final team. Individual skill is important, but equally important is their ability to gel with the rest of the team, and to partner as many as possible on the team. The Molinari brothers are an ideal team, but that doesn't mean they'll never be split up.

A captain also has to look at the strengths of his team. In Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy, he has two of the best drivers in the world. Graeme McDowell and Francesco Molinari are two fantastic iron players. Martin Kaymer and Peter Hanson are calm players with steady games.

Padraig Harrington has the best short game of any European player. No doubt about it. He makes pars where bogeys look a pipe dream. He rolls in pressure 6-footers like they were tap-ins. The US team has Mickelson, the greatest wedge player in the world. It has Stricker - one of the most beautiful putters of his generation. You cannot leave out a short game of the quality of Harrington's.

Of course he needs to hit fairways and greens as well, but just look at it in a matchplay context.

Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson are going to be crashing drives past Harrington, putting an iron on the green, and then? If they sneak a few birdie putts past the hole, and this smiling, scary-eyed Irishman keeps making pars from gorse bushes, what's it going to do to them?

He will break your heart in matchplay, and that's what you need on the team.

We can't be sure that Casey, Westwood, McIlroy are going to make those clutch pars. They'll more likely make the necessary birdies. Padraig Harrington will grind like he always does - he'll frustrate the American players - not with wins, but with halves - and wear them down.

Monty got it spot on - nobody wants to play Padraig Harrington in matchplay.

Look at how those three majors came - battling back from disaster to hole the clutch putt on the 18th in Carnoustie, staring down a five-wood to 3 feet at Birkdale, and rolling in a 15-footer for par at Oakland Hills. They took character and guts. That's what you'll get at Celtic Manor.

A man who will not give up.

Calm During the Storm

Having decided that Padraig Harrington's going to win the PGA Championship, it's time to have a look at the non-Irish players best placed to battle him for the Wanamaker Trophy.

Whistling Straits is long and punishing. No player is going to escape trouble this week, and the importance of a scrambling short game cannot be overstated. With 950+ bunkers, the odds are you're going to hit a few of them. By my reckoning, that must mean at least four holes are just bunker.

Not only will a razor-sharp short game be necessary, but whoever lifts that trophy is going to have to have an ice-cold nerve. When all around are losing theirs, he's going to be keeping his head. It's going to be the man who makes the tough pars that'll win this week.

No surprise that I've gone for Harrington then. Anyone who can get up and down from 70 yards to win his first major after playing the worst hole of his career has the bottle required.

So who else is able to play that calm game, and not get rattled by early errors?

Home boy Steve Stricker is definitely in that category - at 43, he's been around the block, and the major's all that's missing from his resumé. Even with a chance to go World Number 1 this week, don't expect him to get the shakes. He's also one of the best putters in the world today, and on a course where holing the 6-footers is going to be crucial he'll be in the mix.

Retief Goosen is a man who's won two majors in trying circumstances with equanimity. His putting isn't of quite the same quality as when he won in Shinnecock in 2004, but his game's picked up in the last two seasons, and he's definitely got something left in the tank. After an appalling 7 to start his 3rd round last week at Firestone, he held it together before shooting a brilliant final 65 to finish 3rd. His long game is straightforward and, in a year where Ernie Els has returned to winning at the highest level, his compatriot won't want to let the Big Easy take all the credit.

Earlier in the year, commentators were questioning whether Luke Donald had what it takes to finish off a tournament. He silenced his critics with a win in Spain, and has continued what's been an excellent season. He's got one of the tidiest swings you'll ever see, and he leads the PGA Tour in sand saves in 2010. If there was ever a man for plodding around the course and getting the job done it's Donald - when all the focus is on his fellow Englishmen Paul Casey and Justin Rose, the pressure's off Donald. The only concern I'd have is that he doesn't hit the ball all that far - but Paul McGinley managed a 6th place finish here in 2004, showing that if you're converting around the greens, you don't have to bomb it.

As for the other big guns, who knows?

Only Tiger knows where his head's at right now, and he could surprise us. I really don't think that Whistling Straits is the place to try and find your game, however, and he's going to be faced with a lot of par putts this week from 5-10 feet. Throughout the season his putting has looked average at best, and I think he's going to have to get a pick from Captain Corey if he's to make the Ryder Cup team.

Phil Mickelson revealed that he's suffering from a form of arthritis, which might contribute to his uncertain swinging in the last few events he's played. Either way, that final round at Firestone must have rattled him, and I don't see him doing the job this week. Maybe the chance to take top spot preyed on his mind, maybe not. If he gets in position he's got the experience to finish it off, but he will be punished if he's as wayward off the tee.

Hunter Mahan was supreme last weekend at Firestone, and he's a confidence player - I'd expect him to challenge. Sean O'Hair is another guy who's been fantastic for the past month or so. Aside from that, I'm going to continue to tip my players of the year, Bo Van Pelt and Matt Kuchar - I think both will feature at Celtic Manor, but a strong finish here would cement their place in Pavin's team.

I first saw Whistling Straits when it hosted the PGA in 2004. It's a unique course, transporting you from Wisconsin back to Ireland and Scotland. Whether it's the nostalgic feeling of watching the pros hacking out of dunes, or the wriggle you give on hearing that the 17th is named "Pinched Nerve", it's a fantastic venue for spectators.

It sounds like a cliché, but I have never seen a major championship that's so open. Any number of players could be in contention on Sunday, but whoever wants to win it is going to have to show some serious nerves.

Just Like Home?

No major championship is ever boring, but not many are like the 2010 U.S. PGA.

Although sometimes treated as the forgotten major, its crucial timing in a Ryder Cup year always piques the interest. This year, that's not the only reason.

The PGA is being played at Whistling Straits, one of the most unusual and spectacular courses on the American continent. Host to the PGA in 2004, the course is modelled on the links courses of Ireland, with signposts pointing east to Ballybunion, Royal Portrush, and Portmarnock stationed outside the clubhouse.

As with so many top US courses, it was the genius of Pete Dye that brought Herb Kohler's dreams to reality. Dye and wife Alice came to the shores of Lake Michigan, shifted some soil around, got some dunes going, and hey presto - you'd think you were in Co. Kerry.

The course is long - certain holes require close to a 300-yard carry off the tee - but the emphasis is on accuracy. Paul McGinley, not noted for his length, finished 6th here in 2004 when Vijay Singh took the title. As with most majors, you can't have a weakness, but the focus is on hitting fairways and scrambling. On a course with an average of 53 bunkers per hole, you've got to be confident of getting up and down - you're not going to avoid them all.

So how will this semi-Irish course suit the Irish players? The wind will blow, and as Graeme McDowell has already noted, there'll be days when he'll feel like he's at Portrush or Royal County Down. It should give a slight advantage to the British and Irish players, but not much more than that. The top players in the world these days know how to play links golf - just look at how tough it's been to get a homegrown winner of the Open.

One man whom it might help more than others is Shane Lowry - with far less experience of major golf than his fellow countrymen, he'll feel more at home on this course than he would on Hazeltine, or Baltusrol. With his one win coming in the gales at Baltray, Lowry will be looking to capitalize on any advantage present. I don't expect him to contend seriously, but a solid 3-day performance at the Open shows that his game's in decent nick, and I'd be confident of him making the cut.

Darren Clarke had a decent finish here in 2004, tying for 13th place, and some recent form will give him hope this week. However, the fact is that his priorities have changed in the last few years. He showed at Loch Lomond that he still has some great golf left in him, but to expect him to hold it together for four days at the highest level is to much to ask. While he still harbours hope of making the Ryder Cup team, he can realistcally look forward to being a very important vice-captain.

Graeme McDowell is looking to reignite his game after the inevitable come-down following his U.S. Open triumph. He showed some good form last week in Ohio, and the course should suit him down to the ground - he hits it long and straight, is a fantastic iron player, and isn't afraid to make the putts he needs. I expect to see him in the mix this week, and when he gets pumped he's tough to stop.

Rory McIlroy - The bookies have him at 3rd favourite in the field, and they know what they're doing. He's continuing his relentless run of good golf, shooting four rounds under par last week at Firestone, one of only two players to do so (the other being Bo Van Pelt - tune in tomorrow).

He's steadily moving towards one of the top spots in the world, and the first major isn't too far away. I've always worried slightly over his putting, but since his win at Quail Hollow it seems to be in better shape, and if he can roll the ball well this week he's got to be a contender.

Finally, the main man. His last win worldwide came at the U.S. PGA two years ago, and that's not right. Padraig Harrington is back - he's always a slow starter in the season, hitting his straps once summer rolls around, and his performances in Killarney and Ohio have shown him to be hitting form just in time for the final major. The fact that his putting was off in his T-9 finish last week actually encourages me - it shows that his long game's back in shape, and let's face it - Harrington's putting's never going to be dodgy for too long.

I honestly think Harrington is going to win this week - the focus is still there, and the game is rejoining it. He loves nothing better than going head to head with the world's best, and he's got as much major experience as anyone out there now. The fact that a win would secure his spot on Monty's team for Celtic Manor would be icing on an already delicious cake.

I'll be back tomorrow to weigh up the chances of the non-Irish players in the field, but they'll have their work cut out to beat Paddy.

Back on Track

It's been a long time coming, but Padraig Harrington finally looks to have got going in 2010.

Maybe that's unfair - he's had a host of top-10 finishes, but the reality is that that simply isn't good enough. A man with his credentials isn't happy unless he's in the winner's circle, and he hasn't tasted victory since that last major triumph two years ago.

All this year I was convinced another win was just around the corner. Harrington always starts the season slowly - while Charl Schwartzel and Richard Sterne fill their boots in February and March, Paddy waits until summer swings around. From early this season he continued to amaze around the green, making pars from sand and water, from bush and tree, from road and grandstand. He couldn't seem to hit a fairway, and yet still ground out scores. Grinding isn't enough though - he never seemed to be able to pull out a 64 or 65 when required.

Last week in Killarney, things were different.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday - he rescued decent scores. He put himself in contention, but was going to need a big round on Sunday to have a chance. He found it.

His driving straightened up, and he hit some of the best irons I've seen him play all year. His approaches to the par-4 15th and par 5 16th were perfect examples. As always, he made the putts. Shooting 64 was all we could have asked of him - Ross Fisher played too well to be caught. While missing out on another home crown is a disappointment, Harrington knows the big picture - he's got his game in shape in time for the WGC this week, the last major of the year, and he's all but sewn up his spot on Monty's Ryder Cup team.

Padraig Harrington is the best clutch putter in the world right now. When Tiger's head is right, it's a toss up, but right now you can't beat Harrington for up and downs. All you need to do is look into those eyes and you'll see the calm, almost terrifying, focus. What he's lacked this year is the ability to kick on and make a charge when the leader forges ahead. On Sunday he showed that he's got it back. His back nine run was magnificent to watch - but for that birdie putt sliding by on the 17th Ross Fisher was in for a nervy last hole. Everyone on tour knows you don't want a matchplay finish against Harrington when he's on form, and he's found form at the right time.

I'm not going to say anything about the Bridgestone last year because the memories are too painful. I don't expect Harrington to win it, because with fairways as narrow as Akron's I think he still needs another few rounds to get his driving together. But look on it as a preparation for the PGA at Whistling Straits the next week. Pick up a top-10 in Akron, and move on.

Harrington's priorities have changed since winning those three majors. He can now afford to have more exact goals. The majors and the Ryder Cup are what he looks at first. It's no surprise that he's looking to fire on all cylinders just in time for both.

Open Season

It's U.S. Open week - the one week where the USGA get their hands on the world's greatest players and give their sadism a good airing.

This year the tournament returns to Pebble Beach, where, in 2000, Tiger Woods never gave the field a look-in, winning by a whopping 15 shots.
The USGA have set it up as a U.S. Open should be, so par's a good score. The greens will run at 12 on the stimpmeter all week, and the rough is long.
Pebble Beach isn't the longest course, at a 7,040 yard par 71, but don't be fooled. Its small greens make scoring very difficult, and the yardage reflects the risk-reward nature of some of the holes. There are par 4s to tempt the big hitters off the tee, while the 18th, one of the greatest finishing holes in golf, is reachable in two to set up an eagle opportunity, but it'll take nerve. The fairway has been narrowed significantly, and plenty of ProVs will heading for a swim at the weekend.

To compete at the U.S. Open, you need to be a quality ball-striker, hitting fairways and greens. You also need to be a great scrambler when things go wrong. Which they will. In other words, you can't have a weakness. Every round will test every facet of your game. If you manage to hit the greens, great - they're small, so you won't be hitting the world's longest putts. If you miss them, you'll do well to get up and down for par.
Mental strength is key - you can't get upset if you go without a birdie for 12 holes or so - grind out the pars and you won't be too far away.

A few names jump out as immediate contenders. Luke Donald has rediscovered his best form, with a handful of top-5s and a win in Madrid. He's always been a great striker of the golf ball; he's got a simple swing and doesn't make many mistakes. This year, his scrambling has come to the fore, with his short putting being as solid as anyone's. He's got a poor record in the U.S Open to date, but he won't bother too much about that - he's playing the best golf of his career.
Fellow Englishman Lee Westwood won in Memphis on Sunday with another supreme display. He's the best ball-striker in the game, and it's simply a matter of time before he gets the first major on his CV. The only problem I can find is his chipping - it's still relatively weak for a player of his standard, and it's going to be tested at Pebble Beach. Unless he gets the feel of the greens early on, he's going to drop shots.

Phil Mickelson produced a masterclass to win the U.S. Masters in April. He's won the AT&T event at Pebble three times - it's true that it's a different set-up this week, but he'll still get that winning vibe when he gets on the first tee. He's finished runner-up at the U.S. Open a record five times, including last year, so we know he has the game for it. His short putting has improved drastically this year following work with Dave Stockton, and he looks as confident as anyone from 5 feet.

Rory McIlroy is the brightest star in golf, but I don't think he quite has the maturity to close out a U.S. Open victory - you need a hell of a lot of discipline to be happy with pars all the way round, which only comes with experience. He can get frustrated when birdies are flowing - in the U.S. Open, pars give you momentum, and I'm not sure that he understands that yet. He's a fantastic player, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him notch up a top-10, but the title will take another few tries.
Don't rule out his friend Graeme McDowell - he's coming off a win in Wales, and looks to be back to top form. He gets seriously pumped when he's in contention, and his Ryder Cup efforts showed us that he's not scared of the Americans on home soil. He's got a solid all-round game, and his putting looks great.
As for Padraig Harrington - he's showed flashes of brilliance this year, but hasn't managed to put four good rounds together. I still fancy him to bring it out this week - his game's only an iota off being seriously good, and mentally speaking, he's as good as anyone. He's one of the greatest scramblers I've ever seen, and he loves grinding out a score. He finished in a tie for 5th back in 2000, so he'll feel comfortable at the venue. I'm confident Harrington's shaping up for a great summer - no better way to start.

What about Tiger? He smashed every record he could find in 2000, surely that counts for something? His game showed improvement at Memorial two weeks ago, but there's no substitute for competitive play, and he simply hasn't played enough. His driving still isn't under control, and a loose driver will lead to a missed cut at Pebble.
On the flip side, he's the greatest player in the history of the game. He played badly at the Masters and came 4th through sheer willpower. You can bet your life he's going to bring out that willpower again this week, as he looks for major number 15.
The focus is sure to be on him this week, but the cameras knkow that in Mickelson and Westwood Tiger has some top-class challengers. He's been welcomed by the crowds since his return, and is going about his business quietly. The media frenzy won't get going unless he puts himself in contention - if he does, strap in.

Ernie Els and Jim Furyk have each won twice on Tour this year, and have three U.S. Opens between them. Ernie's cooled off a bit since the last win, but don't rule him out too fast, and as for Furyk, he's got to be in the top few this week - he doesn't get rattled easily, and he could make a par from hell.

That's the big names dealt with - who else could challenge? Lucas Glover was a dark horse last year when he held on on the final day; is there a Glover for 2010? KJ Choi has the consistency, and should challenge, but my outside calls are four Americans, all vying for Ryder Cup spots as well as a first major - Ben Crane, Matt Kuchar, Bo Van Pelt and Brian Gay.
You won't find four players more consistent in 2010 - with 17 top-10s between them, including a win for Ben Crane, all four are solid ball-strikers who make a lot of putts.

The U.S. Open is a week where the amateur golfer can enjoy himself. After watching tournaments be won at 23 under par, with par-5s reduced to drivers and 8-irons, it's a relief to see the world's best struggle a bit. That nett 83 the other day doesn't seem so bad when you can snuggle into your chair and watch Mickelson miss a green from 50 yards, or Vijay pull a drive into a watery grave.
The U.S. Open is a true test of golf: no one flukes their way to a win. Whoever lifts the trophy on Sunday evening will have deserved it, no matter what the circumstances.
Whether it's an 18-hole playoff or a victory by 5 shots, you can be sure that no one's going to feel safe until the ball has fallen into the cup on the 18th green.

Ryder Cup Watch

Last September, I drew up a list of the teams I thought would face off at Celtic Manor this October for the Ryder Cup. Having found the lists in an untroubled drawer, they make interesting reading, with only 3 months of qualification left. We'll get to the Americans next week, but let's have a look at who I thought Monty would have on the first tee in Wales.

Padraig Harrington

Lee Westwood

Robert Karlsson

Henrik Stenson

Paul Casey

Ian Poulter

Graeme McDowell

Rory McIlroy

Sergio Garcia

Ross Fisher

Martin Kaymer

Alvaro Quiros

Of Nick Faldo's team, I'd decided that Justin Rose, Soren Hansen, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Oliver Wilson would fail to reappear. Despite Miguel's win in the Gulf earlier this year, I'll stick by that decision. As for my 12 players - I'm happy with most of them, but there are a couple who look a little bit wobbly. What's more, there are guys not on that list who've mounted a charge.

The most obvious absence is Luke Donald, in the light of his performances over the last few weeks. Donald has had a great season, with a few solid finishes Stateside, before returning to Europe and collecting a 2nd place and then a win. His triumph on Sunday has hopefully silenced those who doubted his killer instinct. The pressure was on after his late, late disaster in Wentworth the week before, and he proved himself up to the task. He now looks set to be on the bus to Wales in the autumn, and with a record like his (5 1/2 out of 7), Monty will be delighted.

Donald is such a steady player that he suits the format perfectly - he'll keep a foursomes game chugging along, and can be the reliable player in a fourball to allow his partner burn it up.

Donald has a 4/4 record in the foursome matches, all played with Sergio Garcia.

Sergio's the man over whom the biggest question mark floats. He's had a lousy time of it. He won in the Orient in December 2008, and since then he's fallen off the radar. His mental game's shot, and his putting's still useless. Surely that makes it easy - he won't qualify, and he doesn't deserve a pick. Not quite.

Sergio's always seemed able to turn it on in the Ryder Cup. He's brilliant in the team matches, whether with Jesper Parnevik or Luke Donald. After missing every putt for months beforehand, suddenly they all roll in. He's a firey, energetic player, and you need a couple of them in your locker room.

When he fails to qualify, there'll be a lot of chat about the picks. Can Monty afford to give him one. If he shows any form at all in the summer he'll get one - he's got a couple of majors and a WGC to go at in the last 6 weeks. Without that justification though, it'd be a brave captain to choose him.

What about the Swedes? I'm still confident Karlsson will make it - he's got a win this year and he showed in Wentworth that his game's on the mend. He needs a little more consistency, but I see him challenging strongly at the Open this year, and I think he'll qualify.

Stenson is a trickier one - he's been out of form since winning the Players last May, and he's shown no signs of coming back. Unless he mounts a charge in the summer, he ca kiss his chance goodbye.

The man who might well jump into his shoes is Wales' one shot at a home boy. Rhys Davies has showed his talent this year, with a win in Morocco and a couple of runner-up spots. He's a good ball-striker, a wonderful putter, and has the grit that'll be oh so important come Ryder Cup Sunday. The way he's playing at the moment, he might make it on merit, but he'll certainly be at the front of Monty's mind.

Apologies to Simon Dyson and Ross McGowan, but I think they'll drop off the automatic spots pretty soon. One man who won't go away so easily is Francesco Molinari - he showed his team play with big brother Edoardo in the World Cup, and both bros are pushing for spots. Francesco's playing in Wales this weekend, and I fancy him to finish at least top-5.

So there you go. Really, I've no idea of what's going to happen. If I had to cut three from my list, it'd be the Swedes and Sergio. Ross Fisher has work to do, but he strikes me as a guy who makes most of his money in the summer months.

The team's going to have a mix of talents - steady grinding, scrambling, raw talent, big hitting, and deft touches.

One thing's for sure - it'll be a team bursting with quality.

Partners in Crime

With everyone watching Tiger, it's easy to forget that there are two guys who have to play their own game right beside him for 5 hours.

We were all waiting to see who'd be given the task, embraced by some, feared by others. It's fallen to two of the PGA Tour's in form players, KJ Choi and Matt Kuchar, in the penultimate group of the day.

In the early 2000s, playing with Tiger cost players an average of a stroke or two on their round, whether from the noise of the crowds, the man himself, or whatever. Guys are acclimatizing a little better these days, but there's no doubt that the atmosphere will be electric tomorrow.

Choi has declared himself delighted, and he's the sort of player who might well feed off the pomp. Kuchar played with Woods in Augusta back in 1998 - both men have changed since then, but Kuchar's been one of the solidest players this year - don't expect him to crumble.

Straight out of the blocks will be Louis Oosthuizen, one of my long shot picks for the week. With 6 top-15s in a row in Europe, including a 2nd and win in his last two starts, the young South African's red-hot and will be anxious to join Els, Goosen, and Schwartzel in the charge.

Padraig Harrington and Schwartzel join up with Stewart Cink in the 4th-last group, which is one of the grandstand pairings of the day. Ian Poulter and Steve Stricker follow them, before Tiger hits the 1st tee.

At 10.13 local time, the strongly-fancied Ernie Els will play with last week's winner Anthony Kim and teenage sensation Ryo Ishikawa, in what should be another entertaining trio.

There's going to be some great golf to watch as always, and from the look of the weather forecast it's never going to play too big a part.

The par-3 competition is about to get underway today - no player has done the double yet, and indeed I've seen players walk off the final hole if they think they're going to win the par-3 and curse themselves. Golf is a game for superstitious people, but maybe, on the 50th anniversary of the first par 3 tournament, a little history can be made.

Masters Tale of the Day

1968 - final round - 17th hole. Argentina's Roberto De Vicenzo, reigning British Open Champion, made a birdie 3. After signing his scorecard however, he discovered that his playing partner Tommy Aaron had written down a 4. The higher score had to stand, leaving him one shot behind Bob Goalby, and missing out on the 18-hole playoff the following day.

Most golfers know a good deal of misery, and you have to applaud de Vicenzo for his acceptance of his loss. His charming "What a stupid I am!" has gone down in the legends of the game.

For anyone who wants a happy ending, in 1970 he was awarded the Bob Jones Award for outstanding sportsmanship in golf.

Into The East

The PGA Tour heads to Florida for the month of March, and where better to start than PGA National?

The Honda Classic has thrown up some great winners over the years, including Padraig Harrington in 2005, for his first win across the pond. Harrington will be looking to get his game back on track after a mixed 2009, but for him, the season's only beginning.

It's a fantastic field - Westwood, Casey, Villegas, Allenby, Els, defending champion Yang, and Sergio Garcia to name but a few. There is as much talent this week as in any event so far this year, with the exception perhaps of the WGC World Matchplay.

So who'll do it?

Robert Allenby's my top pick for the week - he's playing great this year - another top-10 last week in Scottsdale boosts the stats some more. Always a great iron-player, Allenby's started to get his putting going in 2010 with a new technique, and watch out for him in all four majors this year. Even if the putter isn't too hot this week, PGA National's a ball-striker's course.

Once you hear those words, Paul Casey, Lee Westwood and Sergio Garcia instantly jump up the list. Three of the finest ball-striker's in the game have all enjoyed some success this year already, and all three think they're the next major winner.

Tim Clark's another guy who's a good bet this week - the one downside is that he's never played the course before, but the upside is his fantastic play. Little Tim's a fighter, and he's frighteningly accurate with the irons. His one weakness is his chipping, but if he hits enough greens this week I'd expect him to finish very high up.

Ernie Els needs to get a little more consistency into his game, but he's shown promise this year. He'll definitely be in the mix in a major or two, and he's won here before.

Charles Howell has had a rough run for a guy with so much talent, but another high finish last week makes me think his game could finally be coming to fruition. The Schwartzel of the US?

Long shot this week? Watch out for Scott Piercy. He had a decent finish last week at Scottsdale, and gave this event a scare last year.

For me though, this tournament is exciting for another reason. Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy are both teeing it up this week, and I'm hoping they'll get at least one round together. Europe's new young talent is a little more experienced and proven that American Fowler, but they're two guys who we'll be seeing a lot of in the coming years, and expect a few back-nine battles between them. Fowler doesn't have the same measured swing as McIlroy, being a bit more swashbuckling, but he's got a hell of a long game and a great mindset.

There are more similarities between these guys than the closeness in age and a good driver though. Check back here on Monday for a closer look at how McIlroy and Fowler square up against each other; in the meantime, watch out for them on the Sunday leaderboard.

A Flying Start

We were promised exciting matchplay golf. We got it.

The first day of the Accenture World Matchplay did not disappoint. There were close finishes, upsets, top seeds pushed to the limit, and some simply incredible golf.

Best to start with the casualties - Padraig Harrington is heading home with a last-64 cheque for $45,000 after losing 3&1 to Jeev Milkha Singh - the golf wasn't spectacular but it was a great match - Harrington was spraying the ball around and relying on his major-winning short game to stay in it. In the end, the workman-like swing of Singh was too much for the Irishman, and the Indian No. 1 will face Matt Kuchar in the next round.

Kuchar, as predicted here last night, was another giantkiller, taking down Anthony Kim. Again, Kim was off-form, but Kuchar played a solid game to win 3&2.

Defending champion Geoff Ogilvy had an easy start to his campaign, defeating Alex Noren 7&5. Ogilvy didn't play his best golf, but he'll be happy to get the ball rolling again on a course he loves.

Mike Weir produced the performance of the day - 9 birdies in the 12 holes he played blew away Alvaro Quiros by 8&6 - Paul Casey looked gobsmacked when he heard about his 2nd round opponent in interview, but after Casey's 5&4 win over Stephen Ames, that could be one of the highlights of tomorrow.

Luke Donald played some great matchplay golf to hold off Graeme McDowell 2&1 and set up a showdown wit Robert Allenby tomorrow - Donald looks back in good touch this year, and I fancy him to go far this week. Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer are both in his bracket, and both produced fantastic back nines to win their matches. McIlroy was 4 down through 6 holes, 2 down through 14, and won on the 18th. I don't care what the commentators say - that's the sort of match you want in the first round. An early finish might be a little easier, but if you don't get pushed in the early rounds you won't be ready when the going gets tough. Just look at Ogilvy last year - he hardly finished a match before the 18th all week. Forget what they say about the players needing a rest - they are all fit guys, and golf's their job. The guys who went to 18, 19, 20 holes today are my favourites to win tomorrow.

Two such were the Molinari brothers, who both lost out only just - Edoardo was 4 up on Stewart Cink with 9 to play, but the Open Champion holed everything on the back to sneak a win.

Another late finisher was Ian Poulter, who beat Justin Leonard on the 19th. Poults is a fiery matchplayer, and he's going to be tough to beat. With Harrington and top seed Steve Stricker out of the Bobby Jones bracket, Poulter's become a very strong contender for the semi-finals. Stricker looked pretty good against Ross McGowan, but the Englishman stuck with him all the way, took him to extra holes, and holed a beauty on the 19th for the win. He'll have a second round match against 18-year old Japanese sensation Ryo Ishikawa.

Match of the day tomorrow is arguably the clash of the South Africans - Ernie Els and Retief Goosen won their matches without too much difficulty, and the only shame is that one of them will be going home tomorrow night.

The bad news of the tournament is that Henrik Stenson, former champion and one of the pre-tournament favourites, had to withdraw after one hole against Ben Crane. The guys in his bracket will be relieved that the big-hitting Swede is no longer a threat, but it's a shame that he won't be playing a tournament that suits him so well.

There were good wins from Yang, Schwartzel, Jaidee, Clark and Karlsson among others today, and we look set for a great week. Check out the comments below for Round 2 predictions, and keep in touch with how it pans out here.

One On One

Certain weeks of the year are special. Augusta. Open Week. The Ryder Cup is perhaps at the top of the tree. But the Accenture World Matchplay isn't far behind.

Whether to play or to watch, matchplay is exciting. It's a totally different game - the player who churns out 4 70s every week can pack up early - you need to be able to turn on the gas to triumph this week. 64 one day mightn't be enough, a 73 tomorrow could win 3&2. Every shot your opponent hits changes your own game plan, no matter how many pros say they just play their own game.There'll be matches ending on the 12th green, and players still going on the 24th teebox.

So who's going to win? Some players suit the format - in the early 1900s US amateur Jerry Travers was practically unbeatable in matchplay but couldn't string 4 rounds together in strokeplay. Geoff Ogilvy is the latest Accenture king, with 2 victories and a runners-up spot in four appearances. With a win from his only tournament so far this season, and a third child for him and his wife, the easygoing Australian will be feeling good again. He faces Swede Alexander Noren in the first round, and you've got to think his pedigree will count against the rookie.

That being said, we'll have upsets in the first round, as always. Matt Kuchar could be a decent long odds bet against Ryder Cup hero Anthony Kim, and expect Padraig Harrington to have a tough ride against Jeev Milkha Singh. Francesco Molinari will be looking to continue his good form into a win against Zach Johnson, and Chris Wood will fancy his chances against Lee Westwood, who has had little success in the Matchplay for a player of his talent.

The Gary Player bracket looks to be particularly strong this year, with Ogilvy, Westwood, Henrik Stenson, and Ernie Els heading it up. Stenson is a former winner of this event, and at 30/1, Els is my pick for the championship. A quarter-final loss last year his best performance, the Big Easy nonetheless has a phenomenal matchplay record throughout his career, and with 3 top-12s from 3 this year so far, I think it's Ernie's time to shine. A win against Ryan Moore in his first round could set up a clash with Retief Goosen, another resurgent South African. Let's face it though - there won't be any easy matches all week.

Prime match-ups of the first round?

Robert Karlsson v. Rory Sabbatini

Ross Fisher v. Thongchai Jaidee

Padraig Harrington v. Jeev Milkha Singh

Ian Poulter v. Justin Leonard (Plenty of people expect the fiery Poulter to go far after his Ryder Cup success)

Luke Donald v. Graeme McDowell (Tough to call, but I reckon Donald's a good bet to reach the quarters)

Camilo Villegas v. Dustin Johnson (Johnson's coming off a win at Pebble Beach, and will fancy his chances against the Colombian making his first appearance of 2010)

Hunter Mahan v. Charl Schwartzel

Stewart Cink v. Edoardo Molinari (Cink has finished 2nd and 3rd here in the past, and after his Open win last year should put in another solid performance, while Molinari will be hoping to set up a clash with his brother in the quarter-finals.

Check out the comments below to see how I think the draw will pan out - at the moment my quarter-finals are:

Steve Stricker v. Ian Poulter

Ernie Els v. Geoff Ogilvy

Lucas Glover v. Luke Donald

Stewart Cink v. Paul Casey

Who knows just how wrong I could be - prediction is a fool's game this week, but who'd complain with those for our final 8?

Keep in touch here to stay up to date with the week as it progresses. Until then, enjoy the golf.

On Your Marks...

We're back.

After a thrilling climax to the 2009 Race to Dubai, we had a week off to enjoy the Nedbank and Chevron tournaments that don't mean all that much, and now we're back in business.

2010 is here (sort of) and it's serious.

Admittedly, there are those who won't take notice of the season until February rolls in, bringing Padraig Harrington and other superstars with it. Players for whom money is no longer an issue have the luxury of taking a long Christmas holiday and leaving the clubs in the bag for a while.

For most though, it's back to work.

These tournaments over the next few week are a great chance for less successful players to get their season off to a good start and relieve a bit of pressure as to keeping their Tour card. Just look at Gareth Maybin - next week one year ago he came to the South African Open in Pearl Valley a callow newcomer to the Tour. He left with a playoff loss and a cheque for €115,000, the perfect start to his season. Richard Sterne won back to back titles in Leopard Creek and Pearl Valley, although his season never recaptured its early success.

With 2010 a Ryder Cup year, every week is important. Edoardo Molinari is at Leopard Creek this week, looking to rack up a few points for Monty's team - if you hadn't noticed, he's pretty good at team golf. While this week's field is dominated by South Africans, there are a few Europeans looking to get their teeth into the Celtic Manor campaign.

That's not to say the field is weak going into tomorrow's play. Ernie Els, having rediscovered some of his best play in 2009, is back, to a venue where he's had his ups and downs. Champion in 2005, he gifted John Bickerton the title in 2007 with an 8 on the final hole. When the Big Easy's playing well it's a privilege to watch him - that swing just makes you feel warm and relaxed.

Ernie's got strong competition this week in some fellow countrymen - Sterne is never better than when on home soil and will want to mount a defence of his crown after a disappointing week at Sun City. Louis Oosthuizen showed some of the form he's promised in the early months of last season, and while he didn't get off to the start he wanted in South Africa he's come on leaps and bounds in experience. Charl Schwartzel has never quite given the golfing world a chance to see his full talent, but I still believe it's going to explode soon - expect him to do well this week. The first four tournaments of the season will be held in South Africa, and the home players are as competitive as they come.

From Europe, Johan Edfors, Robert Rock, Molinari, and Maybin are my tips for the week, with Rafael Cabrera Bello a possibility as well. The young Spaniard captured his first title in Austria this summer and will expect to do well on a course where he finished 4th this time last year.

The golfing season never really ends, and we should be thankful for it. It's very rare that a week of boring golf happens; some of the players you watch this week may not be household names right now, but wait till you can say "I saw him when...." ("he missed 22 cuts in a row", maybe, but let's be optimistic).

2010 promises to be a great year. I'll be back in a few weeks with some predictions for the season, but until then, let's see out 2009 with some sunny South African golf.

On Top Of The World

Every year, the World Cup of golf is an event that has to prove itself. Unaided by some of the world's top players giving it the cold shoulder (no offence to Nick Watney and John Merrick, but they're not quite top of the US tree), there is a tendency to take this tournament less seriously than it deserves. This year, once again, it showed itself to be the great event that it is.

Having said that the top players don't always play, there was no lack of talent this year. McIlroy and McDowell, Karlsson and Stenson, Poulter and Fisher, Garcia and Castano....not a line up to be sniffed at. Of course, no one believes me now when I said I tipped the Italians at the beginning of the week (but I did). Both have shown themselves to be excellent players in the last few years - Francesco winning his home Open in 2006, while Edoardo picked up 3 Challenge Tour titles this season on his way to topping the rankings. Obviously the connection between them is very strong, and they've played a lot of golf together, but I really expected team golf to suit them. Francesco played superb golf in the Vivendi Trophy earlier this autumn, and all this week their excitement and passion was more visible than any other team's.

They've got a lot to do to make it into the running for next year's Ryder Cup, but Colin Montgomerie must be rubbing his hands in glee as he sees another European pairing bringing home the bacon.

They both showed a lot of bottle in the last round. While Ireland and Sweden had their struggles around the turn and early on the back nine, the Italians made their move. Three straight birdies gave them the lead, and they held on to it firmly. In any sport, there's a point in the race/match/etc where the champion ups the pace. Whether it's Haile Gebrselassie, Roger Federer, or Michael Schumacher - they sense the time is right to move up a gear and take advantage. The Molinari brothers showed their nerve in spades on the final hole. A fantastic drive from Francesco still left Edoardo with a hugely intimidating shot, and a slight push put them in trouble in the right-hand bunker. Francesco splashed out to 3 feet, and big brother held his nerve to roll it in, before leaping into the air in true Italian delight. The pressure on that bunker shot was huge, not helped by a gigantic lake behind and the Irish and Swedes breathing down their necks. Each brother played a great last shot on that hole, and next time they're in the running on Sunday afternoon, whether together or on their own, that's what will stand to them.

Ireland and Sweden. Favourites coming into the week, they'll both be remembering missed opportunities, not least at the final hole. Henrik Stenson lipped out from 40 feet to fall one shot short, before Graeme McDowell left his putt from 30 feet an agonising few inches short.

In reality, however, they failed to take their chances earlier in the round, and allowed the Italians to build a lead. 3 bogeys cost Ireland dearly, especially a miss from short range by McIlroy. The Swedes on the other hand just didn't convert birdie chances when they had them.

But to the positives. Rory and G-Mac have sold themselves as a guaranteed team for Celtic Manor in 2010, and Karlsson and Stenson are in the same boat. Karlsson has had a difficult year, battling eye injury for much of the early season and not replicating his Order of Merit-winning form of 2008. He showed good form in Japan last week to finish second (to Edoardo Molinari, ironically) and there can be no doubt that the big man is back for next year.

That finishes up 2009 for the European golfers. 2010 will begin early as always, specifically on 10th December 2009. This season has given us so many remarkable moments, whether it was Rory McIlroy hanging on in Dubai for his maiden title, Angel Cabrera snatching the Masters from the jaws of defeat, Tom Watson living a dream for a week in July, Harrington and Tiger battling through August. It's been a hell of a year, but we couldn't have asked for a better end. The Molinaris have stamped their names on world golf, and they're not going anywhere.

I'll see you next season.