Last Chance

So often termed the forgotten major, the U.S. PGA Championship has nonetheless provided a host of unforgettable stories since its inception. In recent years, Padraig Harrington rolled in a 15-footer on the 18^th to dramatically take his 3^rd major out of six, the year after saw Y.E. Yang become the first player to take the lead off Tiger in the final round, and be the first Asian major winner to boot, while last year won’t be a tournament that Dustin Johnson forgets too quickly.

This year looks set to be as interesting a major as we’ve seen in recent times – the World Numbers 1 and 2 are still trying to find that first win, while Tiger Woods continues his comeback after a solid first week back. Steve Williams had an even better first week back, but is regretting not keeping his mouth shut about it. International players are sweeping the major board these days, and the pressure on the younger pretenders in the U.S. is growing ever more – are Rickie Fowler, Nick Watney, Hunter Mahan, Bubba, DJ et al ready to take the plunge?

The PGA returns to Atlanta Athletic Club this year, 10 years after David Toms became one of the more underrated major winners. His victory was chock-full of memories as well – he achieved the longest major ace when he holed a 5-wood from 250 yards on the 15^th hole, and had enough confidence in his short game to lay up at the final hole, hit a wedge to 10 feet, and sink the putt to take the title by a shot from Phil Mickelson.

The golf course has changed somewhat for this edition – 250 yards has been added to the course, making it 7,463 – pretty long for a par 70. The rough has been grown to be as severe as a U.S. Open course. Hitting fairways is at an absolute premium – with three par 4s measuring over 475 yards, you aren’t going to be able to hit all the greens from a wayward drive. The rough around the greens will be punishing as well, so scrambling will be vital. You’re not going to hit every green, so you’d better be able to chip and make some clutch putts. Those greens have been changed from bentgrass to Bermuda since 2001, and will be rolling at 12 or more on the stimpmeter.

So what attributes do you need? Based on the above, it’s first and foremost a ball-striker’s venue. You won’t win if you’re only hitting 50% of fairways. Ideally you want to hit it long as well as straight – having 220 in to some of these greens isn’t going to be easy. As with any major, you need a whole lot of patience and plenty of guts – there’ll be pars you have to make, and bogeys you have to forget. Forget technique for a second – you’ll have to be fit. It’s going to be hot all week, with not much wind. Lee Westwood’s shed 9 pounds in the last month, and that’s going to be valuable. You don’t want to be carrying any excess baggage in conditions where temperatures will go past 90 degrees.

Who will win? I mentioned Lee Westwood in the last paragraph, and even though I think he’s a bit of a choker, this might be the week he does it. He hits the ball as well as anyone, and his putting (his main weakness) looked a lot better at Akron last week. If he can keep himself to 30 putts a round, he should walk this tournament. He seems more relaxed in the press tent since he’s gone to Dr. Bob, and hopefully he’s not letting that “best player never to win a major” tag put him off too much. I never back Westwood in majors, and I very seldom back anyone at a low price, but I’m on Westwood this week at 15/1, so read into that what you will.

Sticking with my betting, I’ve also backed Luke Donald at 14/1, another low-priced favourite. There are plenty of similarities between Donald and David Toms, last winner at this venue – both have exceptional short games to compensate for a shorter long game. Donald comes in to this PGA as the most underrated World Number 1 in history, although he too faces pressure to pick up a major. Unlike Westwood, however, Donald hasn’t really choked at the big moment – he simply hasn’t had enough time to win yet – his game has only hit this new level in the last 18 months, and he will win one in the next couple of years. If he hits the fairways, he stands a great chance – even though he’ll be leaving himself more into the green than other players, his scrambling is second to none.

The only two players who can match Westwood for ball-striking are two more players whose putting is an issue – U.S. Open champion Rory McIlroy and long-time major struggler Sergio Garcia. McIlroy played some really solid golf last week in Akron, and if he putts like he did at the U.S. Open he’ll definitely be in contention on Sunday afternoon. He says he plays better in the States – this is as States as golf is going to get.

Sergio, meanwhile, has played the best golf for several years in the last few months, and the course should suit him if he can keep it in play off the tee. As usual, he’ll need to hole some putts, but the way he hits his irons, like Westwood, 30 a day would probably coast him to the title. At 60/1, get on that.

What about the Americans? While Tiger played well last week, he’s not yet hitting the driver straight enough to contend at a course this penal. I love having him back in the game, and he’s not too far off winning again, but it’s unlikely to come this week.

Dustin Johnson has unfinished business with the PGA, and as he showed at the British Open, he still likes the big stage. A four-iron out of bounds on the back 9 put paid to that, but anyone who hits the ball as far as he does has a great chance this week.

Rickie Fowler is another man for the big occasion – he finally shot a good 4^th round last week, only to be left in Adam Scott’s wake. After a very mature performance at the British Open though, it’s more good signs for Fowler. I wonder if the PGA is too big an occasion to pick up his first Tour win, but you never know – he’s full of confidence and is sure to be a fan favourite.

Steve Stricker is as steady as the come, and a great putter to boot – he hasn’t missed a top-20 in his last 10 starts, and deserves a major on his résumé – he should contend this week. Mickelson finished 2^nd here in 2001, but as usual, there’s no point in predicting what he’ll do. Nick Watney is another young American who will win majors – he blew it last year with a final round 81, but he’s had a couple of big wins since then. Finally – Zach Johnson – loves winning in Georgia, and putts as well as anyone from 10 feet.

Of course the Aussies are back in form – Jason Day is the most exciting player on Tour at the moment, with the least fear of anyone. He’s very close to a major title, and is sure to contend this week. Adam Scott pulled off the biggest win of his career last week, and even though I’m not a fan of those contraptions, the long putter sure is doing the business. If he plays like he did last week he’s almost unbeatable.

With no Ryder Cup this year, the PGA is our last dose of superstar top-quality golf for a while (that’s right FedEx Cup, I don’t really care). With so many players in the frame (I haven’t even mentioned the defending champion), and a few surprises ready to emerge, it should be a fantastic major. Enjoy.

Team America

So we've looked at who Monty's going to have carrying the flag for Europe in October. What's the opposition going to look like?

Once again, let's be self-indulgent and look at my team a year before the matches, last September:

Tiger Woods

Phil Mickelson

Steve Stricker

Stewart Cink

Lucas Glover

Anthony Kim

JB Holmes

Boo Weekley

Hunter Mahan

Nick Watney

Jim Furyk

Ben Curtis

The most notable absentee is probably Zach Johnson, and after getting his career back on track with a win last month he looks in good shape to make Corey Pavin's team. His strength is in his consistency, and he seems to have got it back. The man to lose out might well be Ben Curtis - he showed class in the Valhalla matches, but has done little since. The one reason to be wary of writing him off is that he has tended to up his game in the summer - watch out for him on the links, where he's tasted major success, as well as putting in a close finish in 2008.

Boo Weekley, the crowd hero of the 2008 matches has failed to fire at all since then, and is well down the rankings. You get the feeling that he might be a captain's pick for his team spirit alone, but, like Sergio in Europe, he's going to have to give Pavin a bit of form to justify the choice - there are too many quality players vying for spots just to give one away for free.

Stewart Cink is in the list mainly by virtue of his Open victory at Turnberry last year - with so many points still available he's going to have to up his game a little to hold his place.

So how about the guys fighting for a spot?

Matt Kuchar has been one of the most consistent players on Tour this year, despite not taking home any silverware yet. With 5 top 10s in 2010, he's ranked at 10 in the Ryder Cup points.

Ben Crane has won already this year, and I fancy him again both this week in Memphis and at Pebble Beach. He's a great ball-striker who's got it rolling on the greens recently as well. At no. 8 in the list, with his current form, he looks a strong favourite to make it to Wales.

Next up are Ricky and Rickie. Rickie Fowler, undoubtedly one of this blog's favourites, showed class last week both before and after Justin Rose took the title from him. He's had 5 top 10s this year - not bad for a rookie. You get the feeling that the win is only so far away, and he's knocking on the door for Pavin's team. Remember his Walker Cup record - 7/8. Everyone wants to see McIlroy-Fowler sooner or later. It might just happen this autumn.

As for Ricky Barnes - he's followed a good showing in the Masters with some steady play, a Saturday 62 last week lifting him to a T-3 finish. He came close at the US Open last year, so we know he likes the majors. Even if he doesn't qualify on merit, he'll be in Pavin's mind if he keeps up his form. He was US Amateur Champion back in the day, so you know he likes his matchplay.

Finally, Dustin Johnson. A winner at Pebble Beach earlier this year where he defended his title, he'll be looking forward to the US Open returning there. He hasn't done much since then, but he sits at 7 in the Ryder Cup list, so a good summer will guarantee him a spot. He's the kind of guy you want playing fourball for you - smashes the driver as far as Alvaro Quiros and has a surprisingly deft touch around that green.

There are others in the mix - Sean O'Hair, Bo Van Pelt, Jeff Overton, Bill Haas, who all have work to do to push on in, whilst Nick Watney and JB Holmes need good summers to hang on to the places I gave them last year.

As for Tiger Woods, let's have no more of this nonsense.

He'll be there.

American Idol

Everyone knows about Rory McIlroy. He's no longer a callow rookie who’s fun to watch, but a seasoned pro whose name will be on that Sunday leaderboard more often than not. He’s big in Europe, he’s big in America. McIlroy’s the sort of guy the fickle American fans can get behind, and believe me, that means a lot if you’re playing the PGA Tour. Just ask Colin Montgomerie.

But do the Americans have their own McIlroy on the rise? Is there a young, exciting player in the States who’s going to carry the flag in future majors and Ryder Cups?

How about Rickie Fowler?

Still a virtual unknown this side of the water, Fowler is fast making a name for himself in the US. The number one ranked amateur golfer in the world for 36 weeks in 2007 and 2008, and twice Walker Cup-player with a 7-1 record, he hit the headlines in 2008, shooting -1 in the first round of the US Open.

He turned pro at the end of last year, and finished T-7^th in his PGA Tour professional debut in October. A week later, he lost to Troy Matteson in a playoff at the Frys.com Open, just his second Tour event as a pro. Last month, Fowler had another opportunity to win in Scottsdale, before finishing second to Hunter Mahan.

To get a feel of what Fowler’s like – you have to see him, you have to hear him. He’s a flashy-dressing, motorbike-jumping, swashbuckling guy, and he brings it all to the golf course. His swing is a homemade thrasher of a swing, terrifyingly fast, but it gets the job done. During that 2^nd place last October, he had an eagle in each round and a hole-in-one.

He doesn’t watch himself for hours on video, he doesn’t over-analyse his game. He just goes out there and plays golf. In interviews he seems cool and collected. Maybe he’s going to need a bit of analysis to improve over the years, and as he matures I’ve no doubt this will come. At the moment though, he’s a breath of fresh air on to the ever less dominant PGA Tour.

How does he compare with McIlroy? Physically speaking, they’re the same height, weight, and Fowler’s just 5 months older. They even have similarly terrible haircuts.

There’s no doubt that McIlroy is the more polished player – he has the classic swing and more professional manner, but there’s more to the comparison when you go deeper. Both rely on their long games a little too much, and need to hole some more putts. Both are ready to take on that big shot when it really counts. Both love the pressure of competing. Despite Fowler’s wilder approach to the game, he’s got a coolness and maturity about him that make you feel he’s here to stay.

Rory McIlroy is a future World No. 1. He’s going to win at least a few majors and heaps of Ryder Cups. Rickie Fowler – we don’t know. He’s still the raw youth that McIlroy was two years ago. He probably doesn’t have the consistency to ever be the best player in the world, but he’s going to compete. I’ve no doubt that he’ll face McIlroy down the stretch of tournaments to come, and he’ll prevail in some of them. They’ll play Ryder Cups against each other, and they’ll share some wins there.

Rickie Fowler is the perfect sportsman for the American fans – he’s young, wild, attractive, and talented. He’ll play to the rowdy crowds, and get pumped up on Sunday afternoons. He’ll miss three cuts running and win the next week out. The sponsors have noticed this and every week he’s a got a new “fashionable” look.

For some time the US Tour has lacked what Europe has in spades – the early 20s players of the next generation. It’s great to see Ernie, Furyk, Mickelson and co. winning, but we also need to see who’s waiting to take over.

Watch Rickie Fowler.

Into The East

The PGA Tour heads to Florida for the month of March, and where better to start than PGA National?

The Honda Classic has thrown up some great winners over the years, including Padraig Harrington in 2005, for his first win across the pond. Harrington will be looking to get his game back on track after a mixed 2009, but for him, the season's only beginning.

It's a fantastic field - Westwood, Casey, Villegas, Allenby, Els, defending champion Yang, and Sergio Garcia to name but a few. There is as much talent this week as in any event so far this year, with the exception perhaps of the WGC World Matchplay.

So who'll do it?

Robert Allenby's my top pick for the week - he's playing great this year - another top-10 last week in Scottsdale boosts the stats some more. Always a great iron-player, Allenby's started to get his putting going in 2010 with a new technique, and watch out for him in all four majors this year. Even if the putter isn't too hot this week, PGA National's a ball-striker's course.

Once you hear those words, Paul Casey, Lee Westwood and Sergio Garcia instantly jump up the list. Three of the finest ball-striker's in the game have all enjoyed some success this year already, and all three think they're the next major winner.

Tim Clark's another guy who's a good bet this week - the one downside is that he's never played the course before, but the upside is his fantastic play. Little Tim's a fighter, and he's frighteningly accurate with the irons. His one weakness is his chipping, but if he hits enough greens this week I'd expect him to finish very high up.

Ernie Els needs to get a little more consistency into his game, but he's shown promise this year. He'll definitely be in the mix in a major or two, and he's won here before.

Charles Howell has had a rough run for a guy with so much talent, but another high finish last week makes me think his game could finally be coming to fruition. The Schwartzel of the US?

Long shot this week? Watch out for Scott Piercy. He had a decent finish last week at Scottsdale, and gave this event a scare last year.

For me though, this tournament is exciting for another reason. Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy are both teeing it up this week, and I'm hoping they'll get at least one round together. Europe's new young talent is a little more experienced and proven that American Fowler, but they're two guys who we'll be seeing a lot of in the coming years, and expect a few back-nine battles between them. Fowler doesn't have the same measured swing as McIlroy, being a bit more swashbuckling, but he's got a hell of a long game and a great mindset.

There are more similarities between these guys than the closeness in age and a good driver though. Check back here on Monday for a closer look at how McIlroy and Fowler square up against each other; in the meantime, watch out for them on the Sunday leaderboard.