Luck of the Irish

Was Padraig Harrington lucky to get a Ryder Cup wild card? Of course. But who isn't?

Let's make one thing very clear. If you want to play on the Ryder Cup team, qualify. Anyone who makes the team on merit deserves to be there. Anyone who doesn't, doesn't. Players can give out all they like about the selection process, but it's not as though it's a surprise to them at the end of the year - they knew what the situation was 12 months ago. No one ever deserves a captain's pick (although Edoardo Molinari put that maxim to a severe test on Sunday) and you can thank your lucky stars if you get the nod.

Harrington is definitely the most controversial of the three picks. Molinari showed his class, passion, and grit to win on Sunday and force Monty's hand, and Luke Donald is one of the steadiest players in the world, with a stellar Cup record. So why Harrington?

His record is poor - he didn't win a match in either of the last two outings - and he hasn't won in 2 years. Admittedly, his last two wins were back-to-back majors, but he's failed to perform since then.

Having the right Ryder Cup team involves an awful lot of balancing. A captain is given 9 players and has to decide which three other players will best make up the final team. Individual skill is important, but equally important is their ability to gel with the rest of the team, and to partner as many as possible on the team. The Molinari brothers are an ideal team, but that doesn't mean they'll never be split up.

A captain also has to look at the strengths of his team. In Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy, he has two of the best drivers in the world. Graeme McDowell and Francesco Molinari are two fantastic iron players. Martin Kaymer and Peter Hanson are calm players with steady games.

Padraig Harrington has the best short game of any European player. No doubt about it. He makes pars where bogeys look a pipe dream. He rolls in pressure 6-footers like they were tap-ins. The US team has Mickelson, the greatest wedge player in the world. It has Stricker - one of the most beautiful putters of his generation. You cannot leave out a short game of the quality of Harrington's.

Of course he needs to hit fairways and greens as well, but just look at it in a matchplay context.

Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson are going to be crashing drives past Harrington, putting an iron on the green, and then? If they sneak a few birdie putts past the hole, and this smiling, scary-eyed Irishman keeps making pars from gorse bushes, what's it going to do to them?

He will break your heart in matchplay, and that's what you need on the team.

We can't be sure that Casey, Westwood, McIlroy are going to make those clutch pars. They'll more likely make the necessary birdies. Padraig Harrington will grind like he always does - he'll frustrate the American players - not with wins, but with halves - and wear them down.

Monty got it spot on - nobody wants to play Padraig Harrington in matchplay.

Look at how those three majors came - battling back from disaster to hole the clutch putt on the 18th in Carnoustie, staring down a five-wood to 3 feet at Birkdale, and rolling in a 15-footer for par at Oakland Hills. They took character and guts. That's what you'll get at Celtic Manor.

A man who will not give up.

Team America

So we've looked at who Monty's going to have carrying the flag for Europe in October. What's the opposition going to look like?

Once again, let's be self-indulgent and look at my team a year before the matches, last September:

Tiger Woods

Phil Mickelson

Steve Stricker

Stewart Cink

Lucas Glover

Anthony Kim

JB Holmes

Boo Weekley

Hunter Mahan

Nick Watney

Jim Furyk

Ben Curtis

The most notable absentee is probably Zach Johnson, and after getting his career back on track with a win last month he looks in good shape to make Corey Pavin's team. His strength is in his consistency, and he seems to have got it back. The man to lose out might well be Ben Curtis - he showed class in the Valhalla matches, but has done little since. The one reason to be wary of writing him off is that he has tended to up his game in the summer - watch out for him on the links, where he's tasted major success, as well as putting in a close finish in 2008.

Boo Weekley, the crowd hero of the 2008 matches has failed to fire at all since then, and is well down the rankings. You get the feeling that he might be a captain's pick for his team spirit alone, but, like Sergio in Europe, he's going to have to give Pavin a bit of form to justify the choice - there are too many quality players vying for spots just to give one away for free.

Stewart Cink is in the list mainly by virtue of his Open victory at Turnberry last year - with so many points still available he's going to have to up his game a little to hold his place.

So how about the guys fighting for a spot?

Matt Kuchar has been one of the most consistent players on Tour this year, despite not taking home any silverware yet. With 5 top 10s in 2010, he's ranked at 10 in the Ryder Cup points.

Ben Crane has won already this year, and I fancy him again both this week in Memphis and at Pebble Beach. He's a great ball-striker who's got it rolling on the greens recently as well. At no. 8 in the list, with his current form, he looks a strong favourite to make it to Wales.

Next up are Ricky and Rickie. Rickie Fowler, undoubtedly one of this blog's favourites, showed class last week both before and after Justin Rose took the title from him. He's had 5 top 10s this year - not bad for a rookie. You get the feeling that the win is only so far away, and he's knocking on the door for Pavin's team. Remember his Walker Cup record - 7/8. Everyone wants to see McIlroy-Fowler sooner or later. It might just happen this autumn.

As for Ricky Barnes - he's followed a good showing in the Masters with some steady play, a Saturday 62 last week lifting him to a T-3 finish. He came close at the US Open last year, so we know he likes the majors. Even if he doesn't qualify on merit, he'll be in Pavin's mind if he keeps up his form. He was US Amateur Champion back in the day, so you know he likes his matchplay.

Finally, Dustin Johnson. A winner at Pebble Beach earlier this year where he defended his title, he'll be looking forward to the US Open returning there. He hasn't done much since then, but he sits at 7 in the Ryder Cup list, so a good summer will guarantee him a spot. He's the kind of guy you want playing fourball for you - smashes the driver as far as Alvaro Quiros and has a surprisingly deft touch around that green.

There are others in the mix - Sean O'Hair, Bo Van Pelt, Jeff Overton, Bill Haas, who all have work to do to push on in, whilst Nick Watney and JB Holmes need good summers to hang on to the places I gave them last year.

As for Tiger Woods, let's have no more of this nonsense.

He'll be there.

Has-Beens, Will-Bes, or...Ares?

Last week we had a look at those players I’m confident will make Monty’s team for the 2010 Ryder Cup. Now we’re going to start on the slightly longer list – who are the guys battling it out for the remaining four spots?

This week we’ll look at the players who made up the rest of Nick Faldo’s losing team in 2008.

Miguel Angel Jimenez: The Mechanic has played in 3 Ryder Cups already and was Seve Ballesteros’s vice-captain in 1997. As a player, he hasn’t had great success in the team, only taking 1 ½ points in his last two outings. On the other hand, it is easy to imagine him playing a key role in Colin Montgomerie’s dressing room.

Will he qualify on merit? Despite having four 4th place finishes on the European money list over the last 11 years, he’s failed to crack the top 10 in the other years. He’s been a streaky player, and unless another streak starts his Cup career could be at an end. His 2009 has been solid, but without a win, and it just looks like there are too many young guns vying for the spaces to allow Jimenez a chance.

Robert Karlsson: As far as I’m concenred, once he’s healthy, nothing else matters. He’s been plagued by eye problems all this year, and won’t feature again until October. As we saw last year, he’s a top-class player, and unbelievably consistent, with 11 top-10s and two wins. He’s got a beautiful swing and sorted out his putting nicely. You’ve got to feel he needs a month of golf this year before a winter break to get him ready for next year’s campaign, and it’s very possible that the time out of contention will count against him. But if he’s back and seeing clearly by Christmas, watch out – he’s enjoyed his Ryder Cup experience so far, and he’s the sort of calm, steady player you want in a tight match.

Justin Rose: I can’t see him making it. He had a great Ryder Cup last time, taking 3/4 points, two of which were with European hero Ian Poulter. This year, however, he hasn’t got his game going. Playing a lot of his golf in the US, a top-5 three weeks ago is the only result of note, while he picked up a top-15 in the Open Championship. Poor old Justin’s career has been dogged with flashes of his obvious talent, and stretches of mediocrity. He showed in Valhalla that the format suis him, taking some big scalps, but his form has slipped again and I don’t see him making the cut

Ian Poulter: The man was brilliant last year. After losing his first match, he won all four remaining to be Europe’s top scorer. A wild card last year, he’ll be looking to get straight through the system this year. Skipping the last event last year and eliminating the possibility of automatic qualification, his pick was criticized, but we all shut up once he performed. Always a firey player, the Ryder Cup is his thing – getting pumped and passionate. With 11 top-20s in the States this year and a 3rd place in France, Poults has showed reasonable form this year without reaching his own standards. I expected him to get moving from around July on, but he’s still winless in 2009. The reward of a Ryder Cup berth in itself should be enough to get Poulter charged up to win next year, and I’d hope and tentatively expect him to make it.

Graeme McDowell: With a brace of wins in 2008 and a solid Ryder Cup performance (2 ½ out of 4, including a spectacular final-hole victory with Poulter over Jim Furyk and Kenny Perry), we were looking to G-Mac to become one of the greats this year and start to contend in the majors. It hasn’t worked out like that so far, his 10th place finish in the US PGA being his solitary top-10 this year. Perhaps this is just a transitional period, and he settles into his new station in golf. Like Poulter, he’s an immensely talented player with fire in his belly, and he loves to win. You can be sure he’s eyeing up a place in next year’s team, maybe alongside Harrington or McIlroy.

He’s still a young man, and he’s got a major-winnign future ahead of him – I’m fairly confident he’ll get his game in shape and mount a serious challenge for a place.

Oliver Wilson: Last year’s bridesmaid, with five runner-up finishes in the calendar year, he’s struggled to get his game going again this year. His 9th place slot in the Race to Dubai is founded primarily on that final 2nd place in November, and after great performances in the WGC events in February and March he hasn’t had a top-10 finish since. He was underplayed in Faldo’s team in Valhalla, winning his one team match with Henrik Stenson, before losing to an exceptional performace from Boo Weekley.

I can’t see him making it this time unless he gets a win soon – the longer you go without a win, particularly if you come 2nd, the more difficult it becomes to close out a championship when the time comes. I hope we’ll see more of him in the future, because I really like him as a player, but it won’t be at Celtic Manor.

Soren Hansen: Next week’s column will be looking at a couple more Scandinavian competitors, but for the moment we’ll stick to Soren. In 2008, he only took ½ a point from 3 matches, but he was partnered with an out of sorts Lee Westwood and playing opposite hometown favourite JB Holmes each time. He played great golf under pressure to qualify for Faldo’s team, and is continuing that run this year after a slow start. He’s another guy who needs a win to show he still knows how, but they way he’s playing it isn’t too far away. With the number of places I’ve already given out, it’s getting pretty competitive for the final spots, and Hansen’s going to have his work cut out. He’s a gutsy player, but I don’t think he’ll make it without a victory on Tour. If he gets that early in the year, watch out.

Next week we'll look at more potential rookies - who'll be pushing for the final spots?

The Race Is On

Every year it gets tougher to pick who’ll be on the Ryder Cup team. More and more new stars are born each year, and the old faces aren’t going away. It’s hard to believe that Karlsson and Stenson were rookies on the team in 2006, and, as we’ll see, our rookies next year could be among some of the world’s top players.

This blog will look at a few of the golfers who I regard as near certainties to make the team, while the next few will look at possible qualifiers and noteworthy absentees.

Padraig Harrington: After a troubling first half of the year, including missing 5 cuts in a row, he found his form again at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational. The collapse there and at the US PGA the following week will remain with us for some time, but the important fact was that his new swing has settled, and he’s playing the best golf of his life. A double bogey on the back nine on Sunday also caused him to lose out in the Barclays, but he’s one of the mentally toughest player on Tour, and I expect him to win again very soon.

There’s no question over his qualification for Celtic Manor, and I expect him to top the list. He didn’t have a great time in Valhalla, but he was suffering from a stomach bug at the time. Only Tiger can hold a candle to him in terms of pressure putting, and he’s going to be a lynch-pin of Monty’s team.

Henrik Stenson: The big-hitting Swede has seemed to be a bit quieter this year, despite having the biggest win of his career at Sawgrass in May. He had a few top-5s at the beginning of the year, but since the Players hasn’t really threatened again. He finished in the top 15 of the last 3 majors, showing that he gets his game going for the big occasions. He’s still ranked 6 in the world, and there are no signs of his going away. Expect him to pick up at least one win before the year is out, quite possibly in Cologne this week. He’s played in two Ryder Cups already, and his calm under pressure has been crucial to the team. Stenson is still improving all the time – the Players was a big step in his career, and a win like that can take some adjusting to. He’s going to have a major victory in the next 2 years, and he shouldn’t have any trouble qualifying for Wales.

Lee Westwood: Westwood needs a win. He hasn’t won in just under two years, and the pressure keeps building. He’s still in the world’s top 10, and 4th in the Race to Dubai, but you get the feeling that a victory will kickstart his career again, particularly where majors are concerned. He’d a great chance in Turnberry to win the Open, but a 3-pputt at the last cost him a playoff spot. Every week he plays these days I expect him to win; he’s worked very hard on his short game this year and it’s really beginning to show, while his driving has long been amongst the best in the game.

Lee is one of the best Ryder Cup players Europe has produced (8 1/2pts out of 10 in the 2004 matches and 2006 matches alone), and I expect him to be Monty’s main leader on the course next year. It’s unlikely that his great friend Darren Clarke will make the team, but everyone would love to see them get their winning partnership going again.

Paul Casey: Casey has stepped up a gear in 2009. With two wins in Europe and one in the USA, he made a dramatic move up the world rankings to 3rd place, slipping back to 4th in the last few weeks. Apart from his win in the BMW, his summer hasn’t really got going, with all his best golf being played between February and May. When he won in Abu Dhabi I mentioned his putting, which was the area he struggled with in Valhalla, almost negating his value to the team. It’s now at a level where he can compete properly on the world stage. He’s another man who is re-adjusting his targets after the year he’s had, and another who’s not far off a maiden major.

Casey can be a streaky player, and it’s important for him to get his Ryder Cup campaign off to a good start; if he doesn’t qualify I’m sure he’ll be in line for a pick, but no one wants to leave it to that chance.

Perhaps most important this year was his performance at the Accenture World Matchplay. He played stunning golf, only losing in the final to Geoff Ogilvy, who was, quite simply, unbeatable that week. He’s a determined competitor, which is exactly what we’ll need in Celtic Manor. With three Ryder Cup appearances already, he should make a 4th comfortably.

Ross Fisher: It’s almost a surprise that Fisher will be a rookie next year; he already seems to have an experience and maturity of players far longer on Tour. He still only has two wins on Tour, and is without a victory in 2009, but he has shown a new ability to take on the big guns of world golf. He was in contention in the US Open and the Open Championship, and while his Open chances disappeared with an 8 halfway through the round, he actually held the rest of his round together admirably.

His good performance at the Acenture (4th) shows a liking for matchplay all-important for Ryder Cup success.

He definitely needs a win in the next few months to get his confidence high. He’s 4th in the Race to Dubai and 26th in the world, but there’s nothing like a victory to really get you going again. He’s a major champion of the future and, I’m confident, a Ryder Cup star. I expect him to qualify for the team on merit, by virtue of a couple of wins between now and then, backed up with a solid all-round year. Watch out for him this week in Germany.

Martin Kaymer: The young German was very unlucky to miss out on the Ryder Cup in Valhalla last year, winning twice on Tour and having to miss several weeks due to his mother’s death. He did spend the week with the team however, on Faldo’s invitation, which can only have left him determined to make it next year.

Back-to-back wins this summer and a top-6 in the US PGA have left him sitting on top of the Race to Dubai, although a broken foot means that he’ll be unable to defend his position until October, by which time he may have been dethroned. He still has a great chance to be Europe’s number one this year, however, and don’t be surpirsed if he wins again before Christmas, perhaps even in Dubai.

He’s a beautiful player to watch; I’ve said before that I think he’s going to be World Number One at some point in his career, although at the moment there’s a guy called Tiger who seems to like it there.Majors won’t be too far off, even if not in the next couple of years, and he should make Monty’s team on merit. He seems like the sort of guy who’ll play a lot in Europe and give due value to the Race to Dubai, which is always a positive for young players.

Rory McIlroy: Approaching the end of his second full year on Tour, McIlroy is still well in the hunt to win the Race to Dubai. He failed to perform on Friday and Saturday in Switzerland last week, but his final round 64 was a joy to watch. His putting has come on considerably this year, even since his win, and he’s loking more and more like the overall package every time he tees it up. A top-3 at Hazeltine showed how his major game has improved, and he’s going to keep challenging for the big four every year. Who knows when he’ll win his first, but once it comes, several more won’t be too far behind.

His mental game is excellent – he has a mixture of confidence and calm crucial to all great players. He held it together to win in Dubai after a terrifying near-collapse on the back nine, with Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose breathing down his neck.

He’s another player to whom the epithet “rookie” seems absurd, but the more the merrier. I have no doubt that he’ll make Monty’s team, and that it will be the first appearance in a long Ryder Cup career.

Sergio Garcia: Alright. I’ll let him on to the certain list. Sergio is such a frustrating player to watch. He has oodles of talent which he so often refuses to convert into wins. His problem has long been his putting, and I haven’t seen signs of it improing this year. When he doesn’t start sinking some, he often continues for the whole week, and wins by a distance. He hasn’t had a great season in 2009, failing to really challenge for the majors, but is still a top-10 player.

On the plus side, he’s a fantasic Ryder Cup player. It seems to be the one week when he turns on the putting, and his commitment to the the team and passion cannot be questioned. He will probably qualify for the team himself, as he always brings out a few good performances every year; with his class, he couldn’t not.

Competition is getting tougher all the time, so he will need to have a good 2010.If he didn’t make it, you’d expect him to get a pick – Monty knows the importance of Sergio to the Ryder Cup as much as anyone, having featured on 4 teams with him.

So there you are. I’ve decided that these eight men win definitely play in Wales. Am I just picking the best ranked Europeans? To be fair, they are then the best players. But no – there are guys in there who really want to make the team, who recognize its great honour and history.

Given the competition, one or two of them might miss out on automatic places, but unless their form hits a dramatic slump, I’d expect them to get the nod from the captain. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take 8 of the 9 qualifying spots.

Keep an eye on the blog – in a day or so I’ll begin to look at the players I haven’t mentioned: Does Jimenez have another Cup in him? Will McDowell and Poulter renew their gutsy partnership? Is there a new generation of Ryder Cup Spaniards in Quiros, Castano, and Larrazabal?

And So It Begins...Again

The Omega European Masters is upon us in Crans-sur-Sierre, Switzerland. Just another tournament on the Tour to the ignorant, this is one of the highlights of the year for true golf fans. It's the week when it all begins to matter again, when the clock is started again. 51 weeks from Sunday evening we will know the 12 members of Europe's Ryder Cup team for Celtic Manor 2010. Some of them may be assured of their place by Jun or July, others will have to scrap it out till the end, perhaps even relying upon Monty's 3 picks to see them through. This Sunday, 60/70-odd players will receive a paycheck to start them on their way.

The tournament can use this focus to its advantage - a strong field is assembled in the Alps, with Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy, Miguel Angel Jimenez, and Oliver Wilson just a few of the main contenders. McIlroy missed out on a maiden win here last year after missing a 2-foot putt in a playoff, after already taking 4 shots from within 100 yards on the 72nd hole. Jean-Francois Lucquin was only too pleased to capitalize on the youngster's error, and the Frenchman will be looking to find a return to form at the scene of his triumph.

McIlroy has certainly come far in the last year, moving up into the world's top 20 golfers, and picking up 3 top-20s in major championships, including a 3rd-place finish most recently at the US PGA. Although he will hope to pick up his second win of the season this week and banish the demons of last year, a repeat of last year's 2nd place would propel him to the top of the Race to Dubai standings, unless Lee Westwood (champion in 1999) takes the win.

It is remarkable to think that so young a man and so new a recruit to the professional ranks (2009 is only his 2nd full season) could be so close to being Europe's number one player, and yet it is extremely possible. He looks in good form, he obviously likes the course, and his ambition is endless. Martin Kaymer, current leader of the Race, is out for at least a month with broken foot bones, and Paul Casey (2nd place) is playing in the United States.

The Race is hotting up, and McIlroy and Westwood will look to take their chance this week to heap pressure on the absentees.

There are plenty of other likely contenders in the field this week. Simon Dyson, after a win two weeks ago, is back in action at Crans. Ever a streaky player, Dyson will be intent upon maintaining his current form to give himself a start in the Ryder Cup battle. He is a man who I have thought has the talent to make the team, but hasn't managed to put together a convincing run of form when it counts.

Darren Clarke, a favourite of the blog, has shown patches of form this year, and hopefully he'll be on song this week; unfortunate to miss out on a place in Faldo's team, the big Ulsterman will want to regain his place in a competition to which he has given so much.

Clarke's compatriot Graeme McDowell is also looking for a late kick-start to his season - after a couple of wins last year helped him into the Valhalla team, a single top-10 in 2009 has been a disappointing follow-up. He's a fiery player though, and while I don't expect him to win this week, watch out for him as the season draws to a close - I expect him to put a few points on the board before Christmas.

Bradley Dredge and Ricardo Gonzalez are also former winners in the field; Gonzalez had a fantastic win in Sweden 3 weeks ago, while Dredge has said that Celtic Manor provides an extra incentive to all of the Welshmen on Tour to try and make Monty's team.

Francesco Molinari, meanwhile, is a man to keep an eye on for the week.

Prediction? Westwood and McIlroy to both finish in the top 5, with a win for one of them. They're both excellent drivers of the ball, and so should be able to take the rewards granted by the thinner Alpine air. They've both performed well at the course before, and they're both hungry for success - McIlroy wants to show Monty what he's going to have from the outset; Westwood needs a win after a two-year drought, and will revel in the chance to head back to a once familiar spot at the top of the European rankings.

Over the coming days and weeks, we'll take a look at a breakdown of the various players in contention for Celtic Manor - who's expected to make the team, who'll surprise, and who might surprise the wrong way. We might even have a look at the Yanks.