And So It Begins...Again

The Omega European Masters is upon us in Crans-sur-Sierre, Switzerland. Just another tournament on the Tour to the ignorant, this is one of the highlights of the year for true golf fans. It's the week when it all begins to matter again, when the clock is started again. 51 weeks from Sunday evening we will know the 12 members of Europe's Ryder Cup team for Celtic Manor 2010. Some of them may be assured of their place by Jun or July, others will have to scrap it out till the end, perhaps even relying upon Monty's 3 picks to see them through. This Sunday, 60/70-odd players will receive a paycheck to start them on their way.

The tournament can use this focus to its advantage - a strong field is assembled in the Alps, with Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy, Miguel Angel Jimenez, and Oliver Wilson just a few of the main contenders. McIlroy missed out on a maiden win here last year after missing a 2-foot putt in a playoff, after already taking 4 shots from within 100 yards on the 72nd hole. Jean-Francois Lucquin was only too pleased to capitalize on the youngster's error, and the Frenchman will be looking to find a return to form at the scene of his triumph.

McIlroy has certainly come far in the last year, moving up into the world's top 20 golfers, and picking up 3 top-20s in major championships, including a 3rd-place finish most recently at the US PGA. Although he will hope to pick up his second win of the season this week and banish the demons of last year, a repeat of last year's 2nd place would propel him to the top of the Race to Dubai standings, unless Lee Westwood (champion in 1999) takes the win.

It is remarkable to think that so young a man and so new a recruit to the professional ranks (2009 is only his 2nd full season) could be so close to being Europe's number one player, and yet it is extremely possible. He looks in good form, he obviously likes the course, and his ambition is endless. Martin Kaymer, current leader of the Race, is out for at least a month with broken foot bones, and Paul Casey (2nd place) is playing in the United States.

The Race is hotting up, and McIlroy and Westwood will look to take their chance this week to heap pressure on the absentees.

There are plenty of other likely contenders in the field this week. Simon Dyson, after a win two weeks ago, is back in action at Crans. Ever a streaky player, Dyson will be intent upon maintaining his current form to give himself a start in the Ryder Cup battle. He is a man who I have thought has the talent to make the team, but hasn't managed to put together a convincing run of form when it counts.

Darren Clarke, a favourite of the blog, has shown patches of form this year, and hopefully he'll be on song this week; unfortunate to miss out on a place in Faldo's team, the big Ulsterman will want to regain his place in a competition to which he has given so much.

Clarke's compatriot Graeme McDowell is also looking for a late kick-start to his season - after a couple of wins last year helped him into the Valhalla team, a single top-10 in 2009 has been a disappointing follow-up. He's a fiery player though, and while I don't expect him to win this week, watch out for him as the season draws to a close - I expect him to put a few points on the board before Christmas.

Bradley Dredge and Ricardo Gonzalez are also former winners in the field; Gonzalez had a fantastic win in Sweden 3 weeks ago, while Dredge has said that Celtic Manor provides an extra incentive to all of the Welshmen on Tour to try and make Monty's team.

Francesco Molinari, meanwhile, is a man to keep an eye on for the week.

Prediction? Westwood and McIlroy to both finish in the top 5, with a win for one of them. They're both excellent drivers of the ball, and so should be able to take the rewards granted by the thinner Alpine air. They've both performed well at the course before, and they're both hungry for success - McIlroy wants to show Monty what he's going to have from the outset; Westwood needs a win after a two-year drought, and will revel in the chance to head back to a once familiar spot at the top of the European rankings.

Over the coming days and weeks, we'll take a look at a breakdown of the various players in contention for Celtic Manor - who's expected to make the team, who'll surprise, and who might surprise the wrong way. We might even have a look at the Yanks.

A New Week, A New Story

On Sunday, Shane Lowry's life changed forever. After one event, he's national champion, national hero, and in a better position than guys on Tour for 20 years. It now seems likely that he'll be joining the professional ranks in the very near future, although he won't be teeing up in Wentworth this week, despite speculation to that effect. The Walker Cup is a big deal, but when you've just earned a two-year exemption on Tour, it's in a different perspective. Pretty soon, he'll be thinking about Celtic Manor 2010 instead.

Lowry's life may be upside down, but for everyone else out there, it's just another week. Robert Rock, Johan Edfors, Alistair Forsyth, and other contenders from last week have already set their sights on Wentworth as the next potential victory. The flagship event of the European Tour is here and, as usual, we can expect a cracker.

One year ago, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Oliver Wilson treated us to a thrilling playoff finish culminating in success for the Spaniard. Since then, however, both men's fortunes have changed. Jimenez has started the season sluggishly, and is coming off a missed cut at Baltray, while Wilson has come to be known as the bridesmaid of the European Tour. With 8 European Tour runner-up finishes and not a win to his credit, the Ryder Cup player badly needs a win to relieve the pressure. As we've seen with so many players over the years, it's a monkey on the back, and the longer you let it cling, the harder it becomes to dislodge. 

 Wilson showed good form at Baltray last week until the final round, and hopefully he's shaken off the neck injury that has troubled him in recent months.

Wentworth is always a fantastic venue, not least because of its finish - two par 5s at the 17th and 18th allow for massive swings in the lead on the final stretch, and, as Shane Lowry would tell you, you shouldn't count your chickens before you come to that bridge.

Competition is as strong as ever: Henrik Stenson makes his first start since his magnificent win at Sawgrass, while Retief Goosen, Luke Donald (in his first European appearance in 12 months), Lee Westwood, Robert Karlsson, and Paul Casey are all back. Masters champion Angel Cabrera is looking to continue his fantastic season at a course where he's tasted success previously. No man has had more success at Wentworth than Ernie Els, winning the Matchplay here about 47 times, although so far the BMW (or Volvo as was) has eluded him.

Karlsson has yet to reproduce the form that saw him win the Order of Merit last year, but, as is customary, he hasn't played that many tournaments yet this year and is only getting into his stride; there's no doubt that he'll be back in the winner's circle before long.

Notable by his absence is Padraig Harrington, who misses Wentworth for the fourth time in seven years, claiming that the course simply doesn't suit his game. After a missed cut at the Irish Open that surprised Harrington as much as anyone, the double major champion undoubtedly needs some time to get his game together, having posted only one top-10 finish this year. Although he's a man  who doesn't need to be in form to shake things up (as evidence in last year's triumphs), he hasn't shown anything near his class in 2009.

As well as the favourites, there are a few outside bets to watch out for. Colin Montgomerie, winner of three Volvo PGA's on the trot in the 1990s, showed some good form in Baltray last week, and is a tasty 100/1 at the bookies. After a solid start to the season, Ignacio Garrido has quietened down again, but the 2003 champion is worth a flutter at 175/1.

Finally, Thomas Bjorn continued to show bursts of form in Louth last week following two top 10s, and as another man who's posted good finishes at Wentworth before he can't be ignored, always playing his best golf in Britain and Ireland.

The PGA promises another week of compelling golf, and marks the beginning of the European Tour's golfing summer. With only a month to go to the US Open, rising stars such as Louis Oosthuizen and Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano will be trying to force their way in the world's top 50 to gain a place at Bethpage Black in June. With 3 major championships in 2 months, it is, as always, as huge time for players all round the world as they seek to join the elite.

As ever, it begins again this week.

He Came, He Saw, He Faltered, He Bogeyed, He Hit A Decent Bunker Shot...He Conquered

Few 19-year-olds can get away with saying "Thank God I've finally got that over with", after winning their first European Tour title, passing €1.6 million in prize money, and entering the top 16 in the World rankings. However, with Rory McIlroy, it was the natural response. We all felt the same. For the last 8 months, we've all been waiting impatiently for the young Northern Irishman to enter the winner's circle, heads in hands as he came agonisingly close again. On Sunday, the agony was over.

Not, however, as soon as people thought it would be.

With 5 holes to go, McIlroy had a 6-shot lead. Now, I wasn't trying to bore people with clichés, but I honestly did mention fat ladies and their singing. I've seen people lose leads like that before, and with a chasing pack involving Henrik Stenson, Robert Karlsson, Justin Rose and Paul Casey anything could happen. And most of it did.

 The bogey on the 15th - maybe he shouldn't have gone at the flag on the tricky par-3, but I don't believe in playing defensive golf on the back nine on Sunday. It just leads to tightening up. He was striking the ball well; he had to continue the way he was. It's a bogey. It happens.

 The next bogey obviously meant things were wobbling, but the fact that it involved a gutsy 5-footer for the 5 was important. Much like Alvaro Quiros in Qatar last week, he made a bogey which would have felt like a save. 

The last bogey was just bad. 

18th tee - McIlroy's driving had been great all week, and he ripped one down last. He immediately had the advantage, as he could see what ROse decided to play, one stroke behind. In the end, they both hit poor lay-up shots. I don't care if he said it was a perfect lay-up - it wasn't. You don't want a 70-yard wedge in over water on a green sloping back towards the hazard; you want a full shot. 

In the end, he made the best up-and-down of his young career to take the title. Had Rose rolled in his 15-footer to force the playoff...well, we won't think about that. I'm worried I know what would have happened.

Of course it's nice to win a title with a stroll down the last, waving to the crowds. However, the fact that McIlroy hung in there and won it with a bunker shot and 3-footer is so much the better. That's an experience he's going to have to rely on in the future, whether he's in the same position or if he's stepped into Rose's shoes. The first win may be the hardest, but when it's even harder than it should be, it's a great extra club in the bag.

Karlsson, Casey, Stenson and Rose all showed their class once again; they'll all be picking up another win soon enough.

Frustration story of the week was Sergio Garcia. On so many he'd nail his drive, hit an iron in to within 12 feet, and miss the putt. He didn't sink a thing, and finished in the top 15. His putting has always been his weak point, occasionally getting hot when he wins a title, but if he's going to accept the burden he faces now to take a few majors, he has to sort it out. It's easy to say and very difficult to do. The only way to sort it is to hole putts, and get your confidence back.

What was the key to the win? Temperament was important on the last hole, but the difference between McIlroy this week and McIlroy for the last 16 months was his putting. I've said it before - his short putting is very good, but he didn't hole enough middle-distance putts. He did in Dubai. And once they start going in, they only get easier. 

He won't have to remember the putt he missed in the Alps in September to gift-wrap the European Masters to Jean-Francois Lucquin. He'll just remember that putt yesterday evening in the desert, to kick-start the next stage in his career.

Oh Captain, My Captain

Better late than never, below is my take on Colin Montgomerie's appointment as Europe's next Ryder Cup Captain. Click on the comment to view.

Back To His Best

With no disrespect to double champion Richard Sterne and the excellent events he won in South Africa in December, the last couple of weeks have seen the start of the 2009 European Tour proper, at least as far as viewers are concerned.

 A stellar field assembled in Abu Dhabi, with 2008 Player of the Year Padraig Harrington joining defending champion Martin Kaymer, and Sergio Garcia making his first appearance since his victory at the inaugural Race to Dubai event in Shanghai. Miguel Angel Jimenez, Ross Fisher, and Henrik Stenson were all back in action in what was a magnificent tournament once again.

Sergio and Harrington both admitted that they weren't on top of their games coming into the week, but they certainly looked comfortable by Sunday, having secured a steady top 10 to start the calendar year.

Martin Kaymer showed his class once again, defending his title as staunchly as Mark Selby did his in the snooker Masters in Wembley this week. Unfortunately, Kaymer went the same way as Selby. He simply couldn't get things going on the back nine, until he rolled in a 30 footer on the last for an eagle to tie Louis Oosthuizen for 2nd place, one shot behind Paul Casey.

The week belonged to Casey. He played the best golf I have seen him play in a long, long time. His long game, particularly his driving is always excellent, but anyone who watched the Ryder Cup will remember that his putting left a lot to be desired in Valhalla. There was no such weakness in the desert this week, as he putted beautifully on the way to a 3rd-round 63, placing him firmly in control of the trophy.

 On Sunday, he did well to hold his nerve on the back nine after three bogeys in four holes saw him slip back to the slavering pack (no offence to Oosthuizen and Kaymer).

Ultimately, he showed his class in closing out the tournament with pars. It's not surprising that his form didn't continue into Sunday - it's very rare that a 54-hole leader by several shots shoots a better final round than his pursuers, the temptation is to play defensively. To his credit, Casey didn't do so until the bogeys crept on, having extended his lead to 6 shots by the 11th hole. Only last year, we saw Martin Kaymer drop a six shot lead in the last round to scrape over the line in similar fashion.

Casey had a solid if unremarkable season last year on Tour, with a handful of top 10s and a below-average Ryder Cup. His last win came in the same event in 2007, but with a win back under his belt there's no reason he won't go on to pick up a few more this season, and indeed challenge in the majors.

It was another fine week for Rory McIlroy, notching up his third top 5 in his last 4 events. McIlroy has had an excellent winter, with 7 top 10s in 10 starts. He's leapfrogged Northern Irish compatriot Graeme McDowell to lie at 35th in the world, and has made clear his intentions of making it into the top 20, if not the top 10, by the end of the season.

An ambitious claim? Perhaps, but the movement in the golf rankings is fairly fluid once you get below, well, No. 1. 

However, I've said it before - if McIlroy wants to get the wins he will get, he's got to hole a few more putts. He shot a great 65 on the last day at Abu Dhabi, but it was never going to be good enough, after he failed to capitalize on a good long game on Saturday. As I've written before, it's not that he's a bad putter, it's simply that he doesn't hole his share of 20-footers. When you miss one it's not a disaster, but if you look back at the round and see you haven't holed any, you won't be holding the trophy.

I'll be back in a day or two with a preview of the Qatar Masters and a word on the European Ryder Cup captaincy. 

Until then.

Golf, like the measles, should be caught young...

P.G. Wodehouse features again this week. In A Mixed Threesome, he penned the above, saying that if it is postponed to riper years, the results may be serious. Mortimer Sturgis, the hero of the tale, takes up golf at 38, and pursues it above all else in life. He fiancee parts with him upon finding him playing out of the clubhouse piano with his niblick (despite the aptness of the club for that particular shot).

It would hardly be correct to say that comments have flooded in since this blog's inception, but we saw one drip in this week regarding my comments on young Rory McIlroy.

James, perceiving my ill-concealed patriotism in this column, questioned my faith in McIlroy over the more seasoned Damien McGrane, citing his greater consistency in 2009, and McIlroy's mental meltdowns costing him titles.

 McGrane was a actually bet I kept to myself last week - I had him to finish in the top 10, so that went down as well. I might add that of the 5 players I tipped here, the only one I didn't bet on was Richard Sterne...

I agree with you, James, that McGrane had a great season last year, and that McIlroy has, as yet, failed to get his head in the right place in those pressure-filled moments. However, I can't see this being the case for much longer. I was delighted to see McGrane pick up his victory in China (I got up at 4 to watch him finish) - it was one of the best putting performances I've ever seen - under 100 for the week. However, I find it hard to see him rising to the heights of a multiple winner, Order of Merit winner, major contender, and Ryder Cup player. I hope I'm proved wrong, but I think his strengths are in his consistency and battling, and while these are essential, I don't see him making the top 20 or 30 in the world. The fact that he's 37 doesn't necessarily mean anything - Vijay's won 22 of his 34 PGA Tour titles since hitting 40. 

However, I think the winning measles have come too late for him to become the type of player that McIlroy can be. I think Damien will win another handful of events on Tour, and he's certainly shown a lot more confidence since that win, but I don't see the same drive.

As for young Rory...well, I'm going with him again this week, in the South African Open. I think this week will be a great indicator of how the next few months will go for him. I agree with James that the pressure got to him a couple of times last year, most notably in the loss to Jean-Francois Lucquin. That's only made it more difficult for him to break into the winner's circle - every time is in the hunt his mind's going to try and drag him back to that missed 2-footer.

 When he does pick up that first title (I still say in the next 3 months) that'll be gone for good.

This week, he's lying at 50th in the world. To make it to Augusta in April, he's got to hold on to that spot until Sunday night. There's pressure on from below - Peter Hanson's in 54th - and it's going to be in his head all week. Dealing with that, and putting in a finish good enough to keep that Masters berth, puts him under as much pressure as the two playoffs he's lost.

I think he'll make it through, and I'm backing him for a good finish again this week.

Henrik Stenson's the favourite this week, and no prizes for guessing why. He's hit form at last this year, picking up wins in the World Cup and the Nedbank, following on from a solid finish at the HSBC Champions. Pearl Valley's a long course with a lot of water around, and Stenson, along with Lee Westwood, is driving the ball as well as anyone. He's happy to leave the driver in the bag - he hits the 3-wood as far as most players hit the driver, and he keeps his accuracy. He's putted well the last few weeks as well, and it's tough to see him finishing outside the top few.

Westwood - I'm going to keep the faith, and say nothing more about it. Read last week - the same applies.

I went with Charl Schwartzel last week, and he has a quiet weekend, always just too far back to threaten. He's always a good player on home soil though, and is worth a shot this week.

Finally, Peter Hanson. I've talked about the Swedes before - if we could all play with their demeanour we'd be twice as good. He had a good finish in Shanghai in November, and has had a solid year overall. I'm confident he's going to pick up a couple of wins during the year, and while it might not come here, he'll be in the mix on Sunday.

Great win for Richard Sterne last week - he showed a lot of bottle coming down the home stretch, including a nervy par on the last. His last win, in the Joburg Open, saw him hit the green of the 72nd hole needing two putts for the title. He was 1/100 to win it. He proceeded to 3-putt and edge it in a playoff against Magnus Carlsson and Garth Mulroy. This time, his competitors sank balls in the water on the last and he could breathe freely. I mentioned him as a player easy to ignore, but there's no reason he can't turn this into a great season.

Congratulations again to Padraig Harrington on taking his second successive Golf Writers' Award, only the 3rd player to do so (after Tony Jacklin and Peter Oosterhuis). Paddy's planning a few weeks off in the winter to work on his game, and we'll see him again early next year.

Finally, a brief departure from golf: the UK Snooker Championship is on this week and Ronnie O'Sullivan looks in dangerous form - expect him to defend it and maybe pick up a 147 on the way.

All the best.

He Hasn't Won Either...

For once, they listened to me. Henrik Stenson heard I'd backed him and did the decent thing by winning at the Nedbank by 9 shots.

I know that one of the reasons I gave for my prediction was that he wouldn't want to end 2008 winless - I HATE when people give that reason. Of course he doesn't - neither do I, but I'm going to. The fact that he hasn't won makes it LESS likely. However, it is sometimes true of a top-class player that he can pull it out of the bag when he feels a bit of pressure.

It worked for me, though, and I'm going to stick with that abhorrent justification this week as you'll see below...

The Race to Dubai comes to South Africa for a three-week visit before heading up to the Middle East.

This week, it's the Alfred Dunhill Championship played at Leopard Creek in Mpumalanga.

Heading the field is Lee Westwood, still winless in 2008, and still looking good to get rid of that stat. He's had a great year in every other respect - his putting has improved beyond all recognition since a woeful display at Augusta in April which left me with my head in my hands. However, my money's on him again this week; it's difficult to see him not challenging come the back nine on Sunday. Ewen Murray cites the course as being one to suit good drivers of the ball, and in my opinion, Lee's the best driver of the ball around these days. His ironplay's solid - if he holes the putts this week, he wins.

The field is lacking the last three winners of this event, in John Bickerton, Alvaro Quiros, and Ernie Els, which is always a pity, but the man who won in 2004 is another who's on my list to be in the top 5. Charl Schwartzel - I've been talking about him for about 5 years, and he's only recently shown the form that we know he's capable of. He's got a magnificent game, and he picked up a win in Madeira towards the end of last season - perhaps it's finally time for him to break through, and where better than at home.

Rory Sabbatini and Richard Sterne are also local favourites this week (if Sabbatini is a favourite anywhere - Vijay Singh once commented "How does a guy get so unpopular", which is pretty damning, coming from Vij), with Sabbatini coming off a strong performance at the Nedbank. Sterne is another one of these steady players who slips under the radar week-in week-out, and  then pulls out a good performance.

However, my pick for the week to join Westwood is Rory McIlroy. He's had a decent year, with 2 playoff losses in the past few months. I said last week that he'd have a win by the time the spring comes round, and I stick by that. Why not this week?

McIlroy could well have won by now if he'd putted better. From watching him, he seems to lack a consistent and convincing pre-putt routine - he rushes into some of them, and while his holing out from short range is pretty solid, he doesn't hole his share of 15 to 20 footers. Taken on their own, it's easy to disregard, but if you don't hole any in a round you won't win the tournament.

He also seems to put a hand out after every miss, bemoaning the break he didn't see, or the pace that wasn't there. I don't expect him to be happy with missing putts, but that can only make them linger in the mind. I don't know who his short game coach is, but there are some great putting coaches out there, including Ewen Murray and Mark Roe, and I'm sure that any of them would be delighted to get the chance to work with an exciting young prospect like McIlroy.

Despite this harangue, I'm confident of him this week, and expect him to be in the mix on Sunday evening.

For any of you who haven't already heard, I'm delighted to say that Seve is back out of hospital and appears to be recovering well. He had his fourth brain operation last week, and his doctors are very happy with the progress he's made. As always, our thoughts go to him and his family.

Michelle Wie has got her hands on a full LPGA Tour card for next year - providing her mum and dad don't caddy for her we might see her show some of the talent we know she has.

Congratulations to Padraig Harrington for picking up the European Player of the Year for the second year running. He definitely deserves it - a month ago I said that I though that Karlsson deserved the Order of Merit over him, but I don't think Harrington's spectacular season can go unrecognized. He's opened the door for major winners from Europe, of which I expect at least one this year.