Abu Dhabi Doo!

The Abu Dhabi Championship may only be five years old, but already it has all the hallmarks of a classic. Today, Martin Kaymer claimed the trophy for the second time in three years as he overcame Ian Poulter by a single shot.

In 2008, Kaymer saw a six-shot lead disintegrate before managing to hang on to his maiden Tour title. Having finished runner-up last year, this year was different once again - leading by a stroke with 18 holes to go, neither Kaymer nor Poulter dropped shots in their rounds of 66, and it took a birdie on the last for the German to ensure victory.

Martin Kaymer is only 25, but already he looks supremely assured on the course - he shot 67-67-67-66 this week to win his 5th European Tour title, and seems at ease playing with the best. This win moves him up to a career-high world number 6, and the way he looked this week it's obvious that the best is yet to come. He has a wonderful swing, and his putting was key this week. He's shown bottle in all of his wins, including two playoff victories, and Colin Montgomerie will already be licking his chops at the Ryder Cup pairings he can plan for the young German.

When Ian Poulter is on from, he's on form. Give him a scent of the lead and he'll go after it like a terrier. We've seen him hold his nerve before - at the Open Championship in 2008, and the Ryder Cup later that year - this week's play suggests he's heading for a good year. He won in Singapore in November to bring an end to a 3-year winless streak - he might never go that long without a victory again. His runner-up spot this week has lifted him into the world's top 10 for the first time, and they'd better get used to him. He'll be disappointed that he couldn't put his approach to the 18th today a little closer to give himself an easier put for the playoff, but he knows his game is back, and there's no one more confident in his own ability.

Rory McIlroy left himself just too much to do in the end - an early bogey caused him to slip off the pace of the leaders, and while he picked up 4 shots on the back nine, he needed an eagle on the last to force a playoff. Once his drive found the thick rough off the right-hand fairway, his race was practically run. He's started the year well once again, however, and he'll be looking forward to defending his title in Dubai in a fortnight.

One more player who deserves a mention is Shane Lowry - the young Irishman failed to make ground yesterday with a 71, and a 67 today could only leave him in 4th place. Not bad however, for a man who was an amateur this time last year. Lowry has faced a lot of criticism since his Irish Open win, but let's face it - the move from amateur to professional is not easy, and it was always going to take him some time to find his form. He's started the year well, and if you remember his win in Baltray you'll remember his guts - he didn't have an easy time of it that rainy Sunday - he lost his lead and regained it, before eventually prevailing in a playoff. There's plenty more of Lowry to come in 2010.

The Tour stays in the Gulf for the next two weeks, and we head to Qatar on Thursday, where Alvaro Quiros, one of the most exciting talents on the Tour along with Kaymer and McIlroy, is defending. Join me again this week to have a look at what he faces.

Off To The Desert

And so, the European Tour bids farewell to South Africa this week and heads over to the Gulf, where it will take in Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Dubai.

One man will be disappointed to leave - Charl Schwartzel registered back-to-back wins in his homeland to give him the perfect start to the 2010 Race to Dubai. In the last edition of this blog Schwartzel was mentioned as a player who's always threatened to become a prolific winner but hasn't quite got it going. It looks like he does now. He may not have faced the strongest field in the world in Joburg last week, but nobody would have beaten him, as he raced away from the field to take a second title. Still only 25 years old, Schwartzel looks set to take on the world as the year continues. He leapt to 35th in the world after his victories and will aim to make gains in the majors and WGCs this year. He has a beautiful long game, and when he gets the putter hot, it's tough to stop him.

It was wonderful to see a resurgence from Darren Clarke in Joburg last week as well. Clarke played solid golf all week to tie for second place with local boy Keith Horne. We all know how good Darren is when he's at his best, and hopefully he can keep this form going this week. He's identified his primary goal for the year as the Ryder Cup in Wales, and he's got off to a good start. Competition is huge this year though, and he knows it - in 2008 he won twice on Tour and still failed to qualify. Always a favourite with the fans for his exciting runs of form, it would be nice to see a bit of consistency from the Ryder Cup hero. Let's be honest - we all want to see him teeing it up alongside Lee Westwood in Celtic Manor on 1st October.

This week, however, there's plenty to look forward to. Some of the biggest names in golf have decided to start their year in Abu Dhabi tomorrow, including Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Rory McIlroy, Martin Kaymer, and 2009 Race to Dubai winner Lee Westwood. Defending champion Paul Casey is also joined by Australian Geoff Ogilvy, who won the SBS Championship in the States to kick off his 2010. It's a first appearance in Abu Dhabi for the relaxed Aussie, but that doesn't matter - he'll just smile and make some birdies.

Casey had quite the year last year - he produced the best golf I've ever seen him play to win this event, including phenomenal putting, before he won again at Wentworth and on the PGA Tour. Having risen to World Number 3, he then suffered a rib injury to miss some time later on, and he never recovered his early form. No one can doubt that he's now a major player though, and if he putts like he did last year, he'll win.

Westwood, McIlroy and Kaymer are all going to make noise this year. No majors between them yet - check in 5 years time and they might have 10. Westwood has moved to another level of golf, beyond that he reached in 2000, despite his No. 4 rank at the time. He's more mature, more focussed, and has one of the best games in the world. He's going to win at least 3 or 4 this year, and don't be surprised if one of them's at Augusta.

McIlroy and Kaymer are two incredible talents - both future No. 1s, and in my mind definites for Celtic Manor, they too should grab a few victories this season, and they're close to majors. They're both calm, confident, and have an awesome game. If you want to know the leaders of European golf in 2020, there's my prediction (and who'll remember if I'm wrong?). They might let Ross Fisher in as well.

As for a couple of lower-profile picks, watch Louis Oosthuizen (2nd last year), Danny Willett (plenty to come from him this year) and Soren Kjeldsen (don't rule him out of a Ryder Cup berth).

The Gulf swing never fails to disappoint, and in a Ryder Cup year, every European wants to get off the marks early. Expect some low rounds - there're birdies to be had.

On Your Marks...

We're back.

After a thrilling climax to the 2009 Race to Dubai, we had a week off to enjoy the Nedbank and Chevron tournaments that don't mean all that much, and now we're back in business.

2010 is here (sort of) and it's serious.

Admittedly, there are those who won't take notice of the season until February rolls in, bringing Padraig Harrington and other superstars with it. Players for whom money is no longer an issue have the luxury of taking a long Christmas holiday and leaving the clubs in the bag for a while.

For most though, it's back to work.

These tournaments over the next few week are a great chance for less successful players to get their season off to a good start and relieve a bit of pressure as to keeping their Tour card. Just look at Gareth Maybin - next week one year ago he came to the South African Open in Pearl Valley a callow newcomer to the Tour. He left with a playoff loss and a cheque for €115,000, the perfect start to his season. Richard Sterne won back to back titles in Leopard Creek and Pearl Valley, although his season never recaptured its early success.

With 2010 a Ryder Cup year, every week is important. Edoardo Molinari is at Leopard Creek this week, looking to rack up a few points for Monty's team - if you hadn't noticed, he's pretty good at team golf. While this week's field is dominated by South Africans, there are a few Europeans looking to get their teeth into the Celtic Manor campaign.

That's not to say the field is weak going into tomorrow's play. Ernie Els, having rediscovered some of his best play in 2009, is back, to a venue where he's had his ups and downs. Champion in 2005, he gifted John Bickerton the title in 2007 with an 8 on the final hole. When the Big Easy's playing well it's a privilege to watch him - that swing just makes you feel warm and relaxed.

Ernie's got strong competition this week in some fellow countrymen - Sterne is never better than when on home soil and will want to mount a defence of his crown after a disappointing week at Sun City. Louis Oosthuizen showed some of the form he's promised in the early months of last season, and while he didn't get off to the start he wanted in South Africa he's come on leaps and bounds in experience. Charl Schwartzel has never quite given the golfing world a chance to see his full talent, but I still believe it's going to explode soon - expect him to do well this week. The first four tournaments of the season will be held in South Africa, and the home players are as competitive as they come.

From Europe, Johan Edfors, Robert Rock, Molinari, and Maybin are my tips for the week, with Rafael Cabrera Bello a possibility as well. The young Spaniard captured his first title in Austria this summer and will expect to do well on a course where he finished 4th this time last year.

The golfing season never really ends, and we should be thankful for it. It's very rare that a week of boring golf happens; some of the players you watch this week may not be household names right now, but wait till you can say "I saw him when...." ("he missed 22 cuts in a row", maybe, but let's be optimistic).

2010 promises to be a great year. I'll be back in a few weeks with some predictions for the season, but until then, let's see out 2009 with some sunny South African golf.

On Top Of The World

Every year, the World Cup of golf is an event that has to prove itself. Unaided by some of the world's top players giving it the cold shoulder (no offence to Nick Watney and John Merrick, but they're not quite top of the US tree), there is a tendency to take this tournament less seriously than it deserves. This year, once again, it showed itself to be the great event that it is.

Having said that the top players don't always play, there was no lack of talent this year. McIlroy and McDowell, Karlsson and Stenson, Poulter and Fisher, Garcia and Castano....not a line up to be sniffed at. Of course, no one believes me now when I said I tipped the Italians at the beginning of the week (but I did). Both have shown themselves to be excellent players in the last few years - Francesco winning his home Open in 2006, while Edoardo picked up 3 Challenge Tour titles this season on his way to topping the rankings. Obviously the connection between them is very strong, and they've played a lot of golf together, but I really expected team golf to suit them. Francesco played superb golf in the Vivendi Trophy earlier this autumn, and all this week their excitement and passion was more visible than any other team's.

They've got a lot to do to make it into the running for next year's Ryder Cup, but Colin Montgomerie must be rubbing his hands in glee as he sees another European pairing bringing home the bacon.

They both showed a lot of bottle in the last round. While Ireland and Sweden had their struggles around the turn and early on the back nine, the Italians made their move. Three straight birdies gave them the lead, and they held on to it firmly. In any sport, there's a point in the race/match/etc where the champion ups the pace. Whether it's Haile Gebrselassie, Roger Federer, or Michael Schumacher - they sense the time is right to move up a gear and take advantage. The Molinari brothers showed their nerve in spades on the final hole. A fantastic drive from Francesco still left Edoardo with a hugely intimidating shot, and a slight push put them in trouble in the right-hand bunker. Francesco splashed out to 3 feet, and big brother held his nerve to roll it in, before leaping into the air in true Italian delight. The pressure on that bunker shot was huge, not helped by a gigantic lake behind and the Irish and Swedes breathing down their necks. Each brother played a great last shot on that hole, and next time they're in the running on Sunday afternoon, whether together or on their own, that's what will stand to them.

Ireland and Sweden. Favourites coming into the week, they'll both be remembering missed opportunities, not least at the final hole. Henrik Stenson lipped out from 40 feet to fall one shot short, before Graeme McDowell left his putt from 30 feet an agonising few inches short.

In reality, however, they failed to take their chances earlier in the round, and allowed the Italians to build a lead. 3 bogeys cost Ireland dearly, especially a miss from short range by McIlroy. The Swedes on the other hand just didn't convert birdie chances when they had them.

But to the positives. Rory and G-Mac have sold themselves as a guaranteed team for Celtic Manor in 2010, and Karlsson and Stenson are in the same boat. Karlsson has had a difficult year, battling eye injury for much of the early season and not replicating his Order of Merit-winning form of 2008. He showed good form in Japan last week to finish second (to Edoardo Molinari, ironically) and there can be no doubt that the big man is back for next year.

That finishes up 2009 for the European golfers. 2010 will begin early as always, specifically on 10th December 2009. This season has given us so many remarkable moments, whether it was Rory McIlroy hanging on in Dubai for his maiden title, Angel Cabrera snatching the Masters from the jaws of defeat, Tom Watson living a dream for a week in July, Harrington and Tiger battling through August. It's been a hell of a year, but we couldn't have asked for a better end. The Molinaris have stamped their names on world golf, and they're not going anywhere.

I'll see you next season.

Our Race Is Run

And so it ends.

The inaugural Race to Dubai has run its course, been an unmitigated success, and been won by a worthy winner. Like the FedEx Cup in years before, fears of an anti-climactic final week were rife, but the Dubai World Championship proved to be all it should be and more. Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy went toe-to-toe, until the last 27 holes at least, and the better man won.

No one can deny Westwood this triumph. European No. 1 in 2000, he has come on so much since then. He won six times that year, but he looks altogether more the finished article today.

Westwood had some very tough times in the intervening years; before he got his game back on track a few years ago, he fell out of the world's top 250 players, disappeared of the radar, and apparently considered hanging up his clubs. Let's be thankful he didn't.

Back to his career-highest 4th in the world rankings, he played the golf of his life in Dubai last weekend, shooting 66-64 to take the tournament by six strokes. On Sunday he played simply beautiful golf; his long game is always excellent; on Sunday, he holed everything as well.

His vanquished foes have nothing to be ashamed of. Harrington and McIlroy will look back at costly shots on the closing holes in several rounds, but the fact was that Lee was unbeatable this week.

Nor was he a man to win the Race with a few big money weeks. Like Robert Karlsson last year, it was a year of consistency. Westwood had just two wins, but 13 top-10s this year out of 26 tournaments - not a bad stat - including ties for 3rd in both the Open (where it could have been so much more) and the US PGA. He looks set to take on any challenge now, and I'm confident he'll have a major within the next two years.

Rory McIlroy will no doubt be disappointed not to finish as Number 1, but for him to do what he has done in his second year on Tour is nothing short of immense. He got off to a great start in the Race last November, and kept it going all year long, including winning in Dubai early in 2009, and notching up some big results in the majors and WGCs along the way.

He stills sees everything as a learning experience, and the other guys on Tour must be pretty worried about what he's still learning. His game has matured since that wonderful Open in 2007, and he's held his composure through tricky tests all season.

I'm not going to predict when his first major crown will come (not too far away though), but there's no doubt that he'll win more than once next season.

He's planning on playing both sides of the pond next season, which requires a lot of golf, and I hope he hasn't made the move to the States too soon. Time will tell.

Ross Fisher and Martin Kaymer were the other two men in with a chance of winning the Race to Dubai, but neither of them really stayed in the mix as the week progressed. Like McIlroy however, they're still young men, and their hour will come.

Ross McGowan continued his excellent season to finish six strokes behind Westwood (no mean feat this week), and has given himself a healthy start towards a maiden Ryder Cup appearance. But that's another blog....

Padraig Harrington may not have been in with a shout of the money list title this year, but he certainly showed the world that his game is well and truly back on track, after months of tinkering with his swing. He won't be happy finishing the year without a win, but he knows that this year was about setting up a platform for the future, and he's done that alright. Those majors have only whetted his appetite, and he looks keen to take on Tiger for every prize in the game now.

One season ends and another begins. There's seldom a week without golf of some sort or another. The Race to Dubai is won, Westwood has his glory. It's all about to start again though, another 50-tournament run to see who'll do it in Dubai this time next year. There's a lot in between now and then - majors, WGCs, the Ryder Cup.....

So let's just sit back, relax, and let them entertain us.

Has-Beens, Will-Bes, or...Ares?

Last week we had a look at those players I’m confident will make Monty’s team for the 2010 Ryder Cup. Now we’re going to start on the slightly longer list – who are the guys battling it out for the remaining four spots?

This week we’ll look at the players who made up the rest of Nick Faldo’s losing team in 2008.

Miguel Angel Jimenez: The Mechanic has played in 3 Ryder Cups already and was Seve Ballesteros’s vice-captain in 1997. As a player, he hasn’t had great success in the team, only taking 1 ½ points in his last two outings. On the other hand, it is easy to imagine him playing a key role in Colin Montgomerie’s dressing room.

Will he qualify on merit? Despite having four 4th place finishes on the European money list over the last 11 years, he’s failed to crack the top 10 in the other years. He’s been a streaky player, and unless another streak starts his Cup career could be at an end. His 2009 has been solid, but without a win, and it just looks like there are too many young guns vying for the spaces to allow Jimenez a chance.

Robert Karlsson: As far as I’m concenred, once he’s healthy, nothing else matters. He’s been plagued by eye problems all this year, and won’t feature again until October. As we saw last year, he’s a top-class player, and unbelievably consistent, with 11 top-10s and two wins. He’s got a beautiful swing and sorted out his putting nicely. You’ve got to feel he needs a month of golf this year before a winter break to get him ready for next year’s campaign, and it’s very possible that the time out of contention will count against him. But if he’s back and seeing clearly by Christmas, watch out – he’s enjoyed his Ryder Cup experience so far, and he’s the sort of calm, steady player you want in a tight match.

Justin Rose: I can’t see him making it. He had a great Ryder Cup last time, taking 3/4 points, two of which were with European hero Ian Poulter. This year, however, he hasn’t got his game going. Playing a lot of his golf in the US, a top-5 three weeks ago is the only result of note, while he picked up a top-15 in the Open Championship. Poor old Justin’s career has been dogged with flashes of his obvious talent, and stretches of mediocrity. He showed in Valhalla that the format suis him, taking some big scalps, but his form has slipped again and I don’t see him making the cut

Ian Poulter: The man was brilliant last year. After losing his first match, he won all four remaining to be Europe’s top scorer. A wild card last year, he’ll be looking to get straight through the system this year. Skipping the last event last year and eliminating the possibility of automatic qualification, his pick was criticized, but we all shut up once he performed. Always a firey player, the Ryder Cup is his thing – getting pumped and passionate. With 11 top-20s in the States this year and a 3rd place in France, Poults has showed reasonable form this year without reaching his own standards. I expected him to get moving from around July on, but he’s still winless in 2009. The reward of a Ryder Cup berth in itself should be enough to get Poulter charged up to win next year, and I’d hope and tentatively expect him to make it.

Graeme McDowell: With a brace of wins in 2008 and a solid Ryder Cup performance (2 ½ out of 4, including a spectacular final-hole victory with Poulter over Jim Furyk and Kenny Perry), we were looking to G-Mac to become one of the greats this year and start to contend in the majors. It hasn’t worked out like that so far, his 10th place finish in the US PGA being his solitary top-10 this year. Perhaps this is just a transitional period, and he settles into his new station in golf. Like Poulter, he’s an immensely talented player with fire in his belly, and he loves to win. You can be sure he’s eyeing up a place in next year’s team, maybe alongside Harrington or McIlroy.

He’s still a young man, and he’s got a major-winnign future ahead of him – I’m fairly confident he’ll get his game in shape and mount a serious challenge for a place.

Oliver Wilson: Last year’s bridesmaid, with five runner-up finishes in the calendar year, he’s struggled to get his game going again this year. His 9th place slot in the Race to Dubai is founded primarily on that final 2nd place in November, and after great performances in the WGC events in February and March he hasn’t had a top-10 finish since. He was underplayed in Faldo’s team in Valhalla, winning his one team match with Henrik Stenson, before losing to an exceptional performace from Boo Weekley.

I can’t see him making it this time unless he gets a win soon – the longer you go without a win, particularly if you come 2nd, the more difficult it becomes to close out a championship when the time comes. I hope we’ll see more of him in the future, because I really like him as a player, but it won’t be at Celtic Manor.

Soren Hansen: Next week’s column will be looking at a couple more Scandinavian competitors, but for the moment we’ll stick to Soren. In 2008, he only took ½ a point from 3 matches, but he was partnered with an out of sorts Lee Westwood and playing opposite hometown favourite JB Holmes each time. He played great golf under pressure to qualify for Faldo’s team, and is continuing that run this year after a slow start. He’s another guy who needs a win to show he still knows how, but they way he’s playing it isn’t too far away. With the number of places I’ve already given out, it’s getting pretty competitive for the final spots, and Hansen’s going to have his work cut out. He’s a gutsy player, but I don’t think he’ll make it without a victory on Tour. If he gets that early in the year, watch out.

Next week we'll look at more potential rookies - who'll be pushing for the final spots?

The Race Is On

Every year it gets tougher to pick who’ll be on the Ryder Cup team. More and more new stars are born each year, and the old faces aren’t going away. It’s hard to believe that Karlsson and Stenson were rookies on the team in 2006, and, as we’ll see, our rookies next year could be among some of the world’s top players.

This blog will look at a few of the golfers who I regard as near certainties to make the team, while the next few will look at possible qualifiers and noteworthy absentees.

Padraig Harrington: After a troubling first half of the year, including missing 5 cuts in a row, he found his form again at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational. The collapse there and at the US PGA the following week will remain with us for some time, but the important fact was that his new swing has settled, and he’s playing the best golf of his life. A double bogey on the back nine on Sunday also caused him to lose out in the Barclays, but he’s one of the mentally toughest player on Tour, and I expect him to win again very soon.

There’s no question over his qualification for Celtic Manor, and I expect him to top the list. He didn’t have a great time in Valhalla, but he was suffering from a stomach bug at the time. Only Tiger can hold a candle to him in terms of pressure putting, and he’s going to be a lynch-pin of Monty’s team.

Henrik Stenson: The big-hitting Swede has seemed to be a bit quieter this year, despite having the biggest win of his career at Sawgrass in May. He had a few top-5s at the beginning of the year, but since the Players hasn’t really threatened again. He finished in the top 15 of the last 3 majors, showing that he gets his game going for the big occasions. He’s still ranked 6 in the world, and there are no signs of his going away. Expect him to pick up at least one win before the year is out, quite possibly in Cologne this week. He’s played in two Ryder Cups already, and his calm under pressure has been crucial to the team. Stenson is still improving all the time – the Players was a big step in his career, and a win like that can take some adjusting to. He’s going to have a major victory in the next 2 years, and he shouldn’t have any trouble qualifying for Wales.

Lee Westwood: Westwood needs a win. He hasn’t won in just under two years, and the pressure keeps building. He’s still in the world’s top 10, and 4th in the Race to Dubai, but you get the feeling that a victory will kickstart his career again, particularly where majors are concerned. He’d a great chance in Turnberry to win the Open, but a 3-pputt at the last cost him a playoff spot. Every week he plays these days I expect him to win; he’s worked very hard on his short game this year and it’s really beginning to show, while his driving has long been amongst the best in the game.

Lee is one of the best Ryder Cup players Europe has produced (8 1/2pts out of 10 in the 2004 matches and 2006 matches alone), and I expect him to be Monty’s main leader on the course next year. It’s unlikely that his great friend Darren Clarke will make the team, but everyone would love to see them get their winning partnership going again.

Paul Casey: Casey has stepped up a gear in 2009. With two wins in Europe and one in the USA, he made a dramatic move up the world rankings to 3rd place, slipping back to 4th in the last few weeks. Apart from his win in the BMW, his summer hasn’t really got going, with all his best golf being played between February and May. When he won in Abu Dhabi I mentioned his putting, which was the area he struggled with in Valhalla, almost negating his value to the team. It’s now at a level where he can compete properly on the world stage. He’s another man who is re-adjusting his targets after the year he’s had, and another who’s not far off a maiden major.

Casey can be a streaky player, and it’s important for him to get his Ryder Cup campaign off to a good start; if he doesn’t qualify I’m sure he’ll be in line for a pick, but no one wants to leave it to that chance.

Perhaps most important this year was his performance at the Accenture World Matchplay. He played stunning golf, only losing in the final to Geoff Ogilvy, who was, quite simply, unbeatable that week. He’s a determined competitor, which is exactly what we’ll need in Celtic Manor. With three Ryder Cup appearances already, he should make a 4th comfortably.

Ross Fisher: It’s almost a surprise that Fisher will be a rookie next year; he already seems to have an experience and maturity of players far longer on Tour. He still only has two wins on Tour, and is without a victory in 2009, but he has shown a new ability to take on the big guns of world golf. He was in contention in the US Open and the Open Championship, and while his Open chances disappeared with an 8 halfway through the round, he actually held the rest of his round together admirably.

His good performance at the Acenture (4th) shows a liking for matchplay all-important for Ryder Cup success.

He definitely needs a win in the next few months to get his confidence high. He’s 4th in the Race to Dubai and 26th in the world, but there’s nothing like a victory to really get you going again. He’s a major champion of the future and, I’m confident, a Ryder Cup star. I expect him to qualify for the team on merit, by virtue of a couple of wins between now and then, backed up with a solid all-round year. Watch out for him this week in Germany.

Martin Kaymer: The young German was very unlucky to miss out on the Ryder Cup in Valhalla last year, winning twice on Tour and having to miss several weeks due to his mother’s death. He did spend the week with the team however, on Faldo’s invitation, which can only have left him determined to make it next year.

Back-to-back wins this summer and a top-6 in the US PGA have left him sitting on top of the Race to Dubai, although a broken foot means that he’ll be unable to defend his position until October, by which time he may have been dethroned. He still has a great chance to be Europe’s number one this year, however, and don’t be surpirsed if he wins again before Christmas, perhaps even in Dubai.

He’s a beautiful player to watch; I’ve said before that I think he’s going to be World Number One at some point in his career, although at the moment there’s a guy called Tiger who seems to like it there.Majors won’t be too far off, even if not in the next couple of years, and he should make Monty’s team on merit. He seems like the sort of guy who’ll play a lot in Europe and give due value to the Race to Dubai, which is always a positive for young players.

Rory McIlroy: Approaching the end of his second full year on Tour, McIlroy is still well in the hunt to win the Race to Dubai. He failed to perform on Friday and Saturday in Switzerland last week, but his final round 64 was a joy to watch. His putting has come on considerably this year, even since his win, and he’s loking more and more like the overall package every time he tees it up. A top-3 at Hazeltine showed how his major game has improved, and he’s going to keep challenging for the big four every year. Who knows when he’ll win his first, but once it comes, several more won’t be too far behind.

His mental game is excellent – he has a mixture of confidence and calm crucial to all great players. He held it together to win in Dubai after a terrifying near-collapse on the back nine, with Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose breathing down his neck.

He’s another player to whom the epithet “rookie” seems absurd, but the more the merrier. I have no doubt that he’ll make Monty’s team, and that it will be the first appearance in a long Ryder Cup career.

Sergio Garcia: Alright. I’ll let him on to the certain list. Sergio is such a frustrating player to watch. He has oodles of talent which he so often refuses to convert into wins. His problem has long been his putting, and I haven’t seen signs of it improing this year. When he doesn’t start sinking some, he often continues for the whole week, and wins by a distance. He hasn’t had a great season in 2009, failing to really challenge for the majors, but is still a top-10 player.

On the plus side, he’s a fantasic Ryder Cup player. It seems to be the one week when he turns on the putting, and his commitment to the the team and passion cannot be questioned. He will probably qualify for the team himself, as he always brings out a few good performances every year; with his class, he couldn’t not.

Competition is getting tougher all the time, so he will need to have a good 2010.If he didn’t make it, you’d expect him to get a pick – Monty knows the importance of Sergio to the Ryder Cup as much as anyone, having featured on 4 teams with him.

So there you are. I’ve decided that these eight men win definitely play in Wales. Am I just picking the best ranked Europeans? To be fair, they are then the best players. But no – there are guys in there who really want to make the team, who recognize its great honour and history.

Given the competition, one or two of them might miss out on automatic places, but unless their form hits a dramatic slump, I’d expect them to get the nod from the captain. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take 8 of the 9 qualifying spots.

Keep an eye on the blog – in a day or so I’ll begin to look at the players I haven’t mentioned: Does Jimenez have another Cup in him? Will McDowell and Poulter renew their gutsy partnership? Is there a new generation of Ryder Cup Spaniards in Quiros, Castano, and Larrazabal?