The Final Countdown

With just hours to go before Friday morning's pairings are announced, it's time for a last look at the captains' options for the first two days.

For each of the four sets of matches over Friday and Saturday, the captains must select eight players and omit four. There's been no word from Corey Pavin as to his methods, but Colin Montgomerie has guaranteed all of his players a Friday game, wither in the fourballs or the foursomes. Since Mark James's disastrous singles collapse in 1999, I don't think we'll ever again see any player, let alone three, rested until the singles.

So who will play in the first day's matches?

For Europe, there are the obvious pairings. Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell will be first off the first tee. These great friends and great players have shown their mettle before, and I don't expect either one of them to miss a match - both will be key to European success. McIlroy may be a rookie but, like Martin Kaymer, we all know that that's a ridiculous description. He's going to be a star of the matches.

The second no-brainer is to play the Italian brothers together. Francesco and Edoardo Molinari, qualifying in such different ways, won the World Cup together in China last winter, and you have to expect them to get at least 3 of the 4 matches together. They know each other's games better than any other pairing out of either team, and their games should complement each other nicely - Francesco's steady, tee-to-green solidity, with Edoardo's fiery nature and magical putter.

You can put anyone with Martin Kaymer. I don't wish to disrespect him when I say that the man is a machine. Someone is channelling Bernhard Langer's spirit through this young man only they've picked up a better putter on the way. The rumours are that Lee Westwood will partner the US PGA champion, and no one can deny that it's a mouth-watering prospect. It would also be a clever move - no matter how well Westwood has recovered, it still stands that he's hardly played golf in six weeks, and Kaymer might be the perfect man to ease him back into the competitive zone.

I don't expect to see Peter Hanson, Miguel Angel Jimenez, or Ross Fisher in the morning matches. That leaves us with Luke Donald, Ian Poulter, and Padraig Harrington. Despite his Ryder Cup heroics, I'd leave out Poulter. He's out of form at the minute - give him a foursome match with Fisher in the afternoon, but for the moment stick Donald and Harrington together. Harrington has so much to prove in this competition, but his play in Paris last week (18 birdies in his last 36 holes) was perfect fourball play, and in steady Luke Donald Harrington would have an ideal partner.

Monty has said that all will play on Friday, but I don't imagine that he has his foursome pairings definite yet - he'll have an eye on Lee Westwood's calf and how it's holding up - if he needs to bring Jimenez or Hanson into Kaymer's team it won't cause too much hassle.

Poulter and Fisher have played World Cup together, and Poults will be anxious to continue his Ryder Cup charge.

There is no doubt about it - Europe's pairings are magnificently strong and it's tough to see any of them being beaten. They're not going to have it all their own way though, and we'll see how the American's will line up shortly.

Predicted European pairings:

Friday Fourballs:

1. Graeme McDowell & Rory McIlroy

2. Martin Kaymer & Lee Westwood

3. Luke Donald & Padraig Harrington

4. Edoardo Molinari & Francesco Molinari

Friday Foursomes:

1. Edoardo Molinari & Francesco Molinari

2. Ross Fisher & Ian Poulter

3 Peter Hanson & Miguel Angel Jimenez

4. Graeme McDowell & Rory McIlroy

The Final Countdown - Europe's No. 1

It's all over bar the shouting in Europe, and there has been a lot of shouting.

Across the Atlantic, however, it's only just hotting up. With a little over 24 hours to go before Corey Pavin announces his four wild card picks, several players have one last chance to convince him that they're his men.

So who's going to get the nod?

Tiger Woods is a certainty. Any captain only needs the tiniest excuse to pick the World Number 1, and despite his abysmal play at the WGC Bridgestone, Tiger has shown a bit of form in the last couple of weeks. It hasn't been brilliant, but there's been enough of a spark there to show that the main man is on his way back. His Ryder Cup record is far from stellar, but he's the best player in the history of the world - that alone starts him 1 up in most matches he plays.

There are those who believe that Tiger disrupts the balance of a team - few speak of Azinger's success at Valhalla without noting that Woods was absent - but that's not a case to leave him out. There are plenty of great players on the team this year, and having seen Tiger and Steve Stricker take 4/4 in the President's Cup last year don't be surprised to see them lining up together on the Friday morning.

Pavin has quite a bit of raw youth on the team - Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson are magnificent on their day, but can lose the plot, and Jeff Overton is still looking for that first win. For this reason I expect him to choose a bit of calm and experience - in other words, Zach Johnson and Stewart Cink.

Johnson has come back into form this year with a win in May, and his cool customer persona is just what the Americans need when on foreign soil. He manages his game very well - just look at that Masters win - and seldom misses a putt from inside 8 feet. A solid final round tonight couldn't do any harm, but his name's probably already on the ticket.

Stewart Cink is the last American player to taste major triumph in Britain, and while he's had a quiet year since then, some solid performances in the last month or so have put him in line for a pick. He's been a wild card before, and knows how to reward his captain's confidence. Again, he doesn't lose his calm easily, and he's a solid short game player.

The last pick is difficult. Anthony Kim? Corey Pavin would love to pick him - he, along with Boo Weekley, was the life and soul of that 2008 team, and you know he'll get pumped up away from home. He did nearly enough to qualify before taking time out to have thumb surgery, but has failed to impress in his few performances since then. It would take a leap of faith for Pavin to pick him - if he gets in, he knows he's been lucky.

Sean O'Hair - he put together a couple of decent finishes before missing the cut this week, and he'll be hoping that won't cost him. He is a rookie, however, and Pavin might feel he has enough new blood on the team already. Nick Watney is another who's failed to push through and get those big results - looks like he'll have to wait till next time. Justin Leonard has put in a few big weeks recently and will be hoping the Captain is watching Ryder Cup re-runs - if anyone knows how to win a Ryder Cup it's Leonard.

Monty definitely had the toughest decision of any European captain this year, but it's not going to be a stroll in the park for his US counterpart.

If I had to guess, I think he'll pick the first three and then Kim - he'll bank on the attitude picking up the young man's game.

I personally would take Leonard - at 50ish in the points list it'd be controversial, but the former British Open champion is as experienced as they come for Ryder Cup men - he'll do the job.

We'll know tomorrow.

Luck of the Irish

Was Padraig Harrington lucky to get a Ryder Cup wild card? Of course. But who isn't?

Let's make one thing very clear. If you want to play on the Ryder Cup team, qualify. Anyone who makes the team on merit deserves to be there. Anyone who doesn't, doesn't. Players can give out all they like about the selection process, but it's not as though it's a surprise to them at the end of the year - they knew what the situation was 12 months ago. No one ever deserves a captain's pick (although Edoardo Molinari put that maxim to a severe test on Sunday) and you can thank your lucky stars if you get the nod.

Harrington is definitely the most controversial of the three picks. Molinari showed his class, passion, and grit to win on Sunday and force Monty's hand, and Luke Donald is one of the steadiest players in the world, with a stellar Cup record. So why Harrington?

His record is poor - he didn't win a match in either of the last two outings - and he hasn't won in 2 years. Admittedly, his last two wins were back-to-back majors, but he's failed to perform since then.

Having the right Ryder Cup team involves an awful lot of balancing. A captain is given 9 players and has to decide which three other players will best make up the final team. Individual skill is important, but equally important is their ability to gel with the rest of the team, and to partner as many as possible on the team. The Molinari brothers are an ideal team, but that doesn't mean they'll never be split up.

A captain also has to look at the strengths of his team. In Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy, he has two of the best drivers in the world. Graeme McDowell and Francesco Molinari are two fantastic iron players. Martin Kaymer and Peter Hanson are calm players with steady games.

Padraig Harrington has the best short game of any European player. No doubt about it. He makes pars where bogeys look a pipe dream. He rolls in pressure 6-footers like they were tap-ins. The US team has Mickelson, the greatest wedge player in the world. It has Stricker - one of the most beautiful putters of his generation. You cannot leave out a short game of the quality of Harrington's.

Of course he needs to hit fairways and greens as well, but just look at it in a matchplay context.

Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson are going to be crashing drives past Harrington, putting an iron on the green, and then? If they sneak a few birdie putts past the hole, and this smiling, scary-eyed Irishman keeps making pars from gorse bushes, what's it going to do to them?

He will break your heart in matchplay, and that's what you need on the team.

We can't be sure that Casey, Westwood, McIlroy are going to make those clutch pars. They'll more likely make the necessary birdies. Padraig Harrington will grind like he always does - he'll frustrate the American players - not with wins, but with halves - and wear them down.

Monty got it spot on - nobody wants to play Padraig Harrington in matchplay.

Look at how those three majors came - battling back from disaster to hole the clutch putt on the 18th in Carnoustie, staring down a five-wood to 3 feet at Birkdale, and rolling in a 15-footer for par at Oakland Hills. They took character and guts. That's what you'll get at Celtic Manor.

A man who will not give up.

Monty's Choices

With one week to go, the race for the Ryder Cup team has never been more fiercely contested. Victory last Sunday for Sweden’s Peter Hanson saw him leapfrog Paul Casey into the automatic standings, leaving the Englishman trusting Colin Montgomerie to pick him.

In 2008, U.S. Captain Paul Azinger decided that he would abandon the traditional position of picking two cards, and rather pick four, reducing the number of automatic positions available. On being named European Captain, Monty asked the board for an extra pick to bring the number to three, and they agreed.

At this point, it’s difficult to say whether this is a blessing or not. In general, three picks does seem better than two – there are several examples of where a player has qualified for the team by virtue of some early-season heroics before losing any semblance of form. Having seen captains get stuck with such players, it’s not surprising that first Paul Azinger and now Colin Montgomerie have sought more flexibility. That said, in a year like this with so many clamouring for favours, a captain would be forgiven for wishing the team picked itself – Monty will be criticized heavily no matter who he picks on Sunday night; then again, it’s all part of the job.

Every year it seems that the team gets tougher to get into, and this is no exception. Two-time 2010 PGA Tour winner Justin Rose needs a phone call, as does Madrid champion Luke Donald, Open runner-up Casey, and 3-time major man Padraig Harrington.

The key point about these four men is that they won’t be teeing it up at the Johnnie Walker Championship at Gleneagles this Thursday, thereby conceding their last chance to make the team on merit.

Monty warned all hopefuls back in May that he wouldn’t be picking anyone who didn’t show at Gleneagles, but that may not be an ultimatum he can keep. With the above four players all choosing to play the first FedEx Cup playoff instead, his options become limited if he ignores them.

However, there are several players lining up at Gleneagles who wouldn’t disgrace a Ryder Cup team. Edoardo Molinari is an ideal pick for Monty to make if he misses out on direct qualification – with his World Cup winning partner and brother Francesco already in the squad, the former U.S. Amateur Champion would be an obvious selection.

Big-hitting Spaniard Alavro Quiros has been out of form since the summer began, but Montgomerie is an admitted fan, and he may feel that Quiros brings a bit of firepower that Europe will need to match America’s Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson.

The home crowd would love to have Welshman Rhys Davies lining out at Celtic Manor on October 1st, but his failure to fire since his home tournament over two months ago may have cost him. However, a good week for Davies now could prove the difference.

What does Monty want from his picks? Individual talent is important, of course, but even more so is the ability to gel with the team. 2008 was the first time the Americans were seen to have as good a team spirit as their opponents, and they brought home the bacon.

Perhaps the key balance for Monty to strike is that of innocence and experience. Of the nine men holding down an automatic spot at the moment, five are Ryder Cup rookies. Admittedly, when your rookies include Martin Kaymer and Rory McIlroy, you’re in a strong position to start from, but it is necessary to temper these players with some elder statesmen. It is for this reason that Montgomerie is likely to pick Harrington – whatever about his current form, he’s got the mental strength to find a matchplay win anywhere. Paul Casey is also likely to receive a wild card – he’s shown his one-on-one credentials with two consecutive runner-up finishes in the Accenture World Matchplay.

Miguel Angel Jimenez is just the sort of player Monty will hope can hold his spot this week in Scotland – he won’t get fazed by Bubba pasting it 340 yards – Miguel will just blow out his cigar smoke, follow his belly calmly down the fairway, and get on with his own mechanical round.

Robert Karlsson is another player who showed wonderful calm in his past appearances, but a torrid year leaves him outside the qualifiers. A strong showing in Gleneagles might tempt Monty to pick the phlegmatic Swede, but it’s unlikely that anything short of a win would suffice.

When Thomas Bjorn was overlooked for a Ryder Cup pick a few years back he threw a strop; don’t rule out something similar if one of the favourites doesn’t make it in. The critical point, however, is this: You have 12 months to qualify for the Ryder Cup team – if you haven’t done enough by then, you don’t deserve a place in the team. If you get a wild card, you’ve been lucky. No one is entitled to the pick, and there will be some very nervous players on both sides of the Atlantic on Sunday.

Calm During the Storm

Having decided that Padraig Harrington's going to win the PGA Championship, it's time to have a look at the non-Irish players best placed to battle him for the Wanamaker Trophy.

Whistling Straits is long and punishing. No player is going to escape trouble this week, and the importance of a scrambling short game cannot be overstated. With 950+ bunkers, the odds are you're going to hit a few of them. By my reckoning, that must mean at least four holes are just bunker.

Not only will a razor-sharp short game be necessary, but whoever lifts that trophy is going to have to have an ice-cold nerve. When all around are losing theirs, he's going to be keeping his head. It's going to be the man who makes the tough pars that'll win this week.

No surprise that I've gone for Harrington then. Anyone who can get up and down from 70 yards to win his first major after playing the worst hole of his career has the bottle required.

So who else is able to play that calm game, and not get rattled by early errors?

Home boy Steve Stricker is definitely in that category - at 43, he's been around the block, and the major's all that's missing from his resumé. Even with a chance to go World Number 1 this week, don't expect him to get the shakes. He's also one of the best putters in the world today, and on a course where holing the 6-footers is going to be crucial he'll be in the mix.

Retief Goosen is a man who's won two majors in trying circumstances with equanimity. His putting isn't of quite the same quality as when he won in Shinnecock in 2004, but his game's picked up in the last two seasons, and he's definitely got something left in the tank. After an appalling 7 to start his 3rd round last week at Firestone, he held it together before shooting a brilliant final 65 to finish 3rd. His long game is straightforward and, in a year where Ernie Els has returned to winning at the highest level, his compatriot won't want to let the Big Easy take all the credit.

Earlier in the year, commentators were questioning whether Luke Donald had what it takes to finish off a tournament. He silenced his critics with a win in Spain, and has continued what's been an excellent season. He's got one of the tidiest swings you'll ever see, and he leads the PGA Tour in sand saves in 2010. If there was ever a man for plodding around the course and getting the job done it's Donald - when all the focus is on his fellow Englishmen Paul Casey and Justin Rose, the pressure's off Donald. The only concern I'd have is that he doesn't hit the ball all that far - but Paul McGinley managed a 6th place finish here in 2004, showing that if you're converting around the greens, you don't have to bomb it.

As for the other big guns, who knows?

Only Tiger knows where his head's at right now, and he could surprise us. I really don't think that Whistling Straits is the place to try and find your game, however, and he's going to be faced with a lot of par putts this week from 5-10 feet. Throughout the season his putting has looked average at best, and I think he's going to have to get a pick from Captain Corey if he's to make the Ryder Cup team.

Phil Mickelson revealed that he's suffering from a form of arthritis, which might contribute to his uncertain swinging in the last few events he's played. Either way, that final round at Firestone must have rattled him, and I don't see him doing the job this week. Maybe the chance to take top spot preyed on his mind, maybe not. If he gets in position he's got the experience to finish it off, but he will be punished if he's as wayward off the tee.

Hunter Mahan was supreme last weekend at Firestone, and he's a confidence player - I'd expect him to challenge. Sean O'Hair is another guy who's been fantastic for the past month or so. Aside from that, I'm going to continue to tip my players of the year, Bo Van Pelt and Matt Kuchar - I think both will feature at Celtic Manor, but a strong finish here would cement their place in Pavin's team.

I first saw Whistling Straits when it hosted the PGA in 2004. It's a unique course, transporting you from Wisconsin back to Ireland and Scotland. Whether it's the nostalgic feeling of watching the pros hacking out of dunes, or the wriggle you give on hearing that the 17th is named "Pinched Nerve", it's a fantastic venue for spectators.

It sounds like a cliché, but I have never seen a major championship that's so open. Any number of players could be in contention on Sunday, but whoever wants to win it is going to have to show some serious nerves.

Just Like Home?

No major championship is ever boring, but not many are like the 2010 U.S. PGA.

Although sometimes treated as the forgotten major, its crucial timing in a Ryder Cup year always piques the interest. This year, that's not the only reason.

The PGA is being played at Whistling Straits, one of the most unusual and spectacular courses on the American continent. Host to the PGA in 2004, the course is modelled on the links courses of Ireland, with signposts pointing east to Ballybunion, Royal Portrush, and Portmarnock stationed outside the clubhouse.

As with so many top US courses, it was the genius of Pete Dye that brought Herb Kohler's dreams to reality. Dye and wife Alice came to the shores of Lake Michigan, shifted some soil around, got some dunes going, and hey presto - you'd think you were in Co. Kerry.

The course is long - certain holes require close to a 300-yard carry off the tee - but the emphasis is on accuracy. Paul McGinley, not noted for his length, finished 6th here in 2004 when Vijay Singh took the title. As with most majors, you can't have a weakness, but the focus is on hitting fairways and scrambling. On a course with an average of 53 bunkers per hole, you've got to be confident of getting up and down - you're not going to avoid them all.

So how will this semi-Irish course suit the Irish players? The wind will blow, and as Graeme McDowell has already noted, there'll be days when he'll feel like he's at Portrush or Royal County Down. It should give a slight advantage to the British and Irish players, but not much more than that. The top players in the world these days know how to play links golf - just look at how tough it's been to get a homegrown winner of the Open.

One man whom it might help more than others is Shane Lowry - with far less experience of major golf than his fellow countrymen, he'll feel more at home on this course than he would on Hazeltine, or Baltusrol. With his one win coming in the gales at Baltray, Lowry will be looking to capitalize on any advantage present. I don't expect him to contend seriously, but a solid 3-day performance at the Open shows that his game's in decent nick, and I'd be confident of him making the cut.

Darren Clarke had a decent finish here in 2004, tying for 13th place, and some recent form will give him hope this week. However, the fact is that his priorities have changed in the last few years. He showed at Loch Lomond that he still has some great golf left in him, but to expect him to hold it together for four days at the highest level is to much to ask. While he still harbours hope of making the Ryder Cup team, he can realistcally look forward to being a very important vice-captain.

Graeme McDowell is looking to reignite his game after the inevitable come-down following his U.S. Open triumph. He showed some good form last week in Ohio, and the course should suit him down to the ground - he hits it long and straight, is a fantastic iron player, and isn't afraid to make the putts he needs. I expect to see him in the mix this week, and when he gets pumped he's tough to stop.

Rory McIlroy - The bookies have him at 3rd favourite in the field, and they know what they're doing. He's continuing his relentless run of good golf, shooting four rounds under par last week at Firestone, one of only two players to do so (the other being Bo Van Pelt - tune in tomorrow).

He's steadily moving towards one of the top spots in the world, and the first major isn't too far away. I've always worried slightly over his putting, but since his win at Quail Hollow it seems to be in better shape, and if he can roll the ball well this week he's got to be a contender.

Finally, the main man. His last win worldwide came at the U.S. PGA two years ago, and that's not right. Padraig Harrington is back - he's always a slow starter in the season, hitting his straps once summer rolls around, and his performances in Killarney and Ohio have shown him to be hitting form just in time for the final major. The fact that his putting was off in his T-9 finish last week actually encourages me - it shows that his long game's back in shape, and let's face it - Harrington's putting's never going to be dodgy for too long.

I honestly think Harrington is going to win this week - the focus is still there, and the game is rejoining it. He loves nothing better than going head to head with the world's best, and he's got as much major experience as anyone out there now. The fact that a win would secure his spot on Monty's team for Celtic Manor would be icing on an already delicious cake.

I'll be back tomorrow to weigh up the chances of the non-Irish players in the field, but they'll have their work cut out to beat Paddy.

Back on Track

It's been a long time coming, but Padraig Harrington finally looks to have got going in 2010.

Maybe that's unfair - he's had a host of top-10 finishes, but the reality is that that simply isn't good enough. A man with his credentials isn't happy unless he's in the winner's circle, and he hasn't tasted victory since that last major triumph two years ago.

All this year I was convinced another win was just around the corner. Harrington always starts the season slowly - while Charl Schwartzel and Richard Sterne fill their boots in February and March, Paddy waits until summer swings around. From early this season he continued to amaze around the green, making pars from sand and water, from bush and tree, from road and grandstand. He couldn't seem to hit a fairway, and yet still ground out scores. Grinding isn't enough though - he never seemed to be able to pull out a 64 or 65 when required.

Last week in Killarney, things were different.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday - he rescued decent scores. He put himself in contention, but was going to need a big round on Sunday to have a chance. He found it.

His driving straightened up, and he hit some of the best irons I've seen him play all year. His approaches to the par-4 15th and par 5 16th were perfect examples. As always, he made the putts. Shooting 64 was all we could have asked of him - Ross Fisher played too well to be caught. While missing out on another home crown is a disappointment, Harrington knows the big picture - he's got his game in shape in time for the WGC this week, the last major of the year, and he's all but sewn up his spot on Monty's Ryder Cup team.

Padraig Harrington is the best clutch putter in the world right now. When Tiger's head is right, it's a toss up, but right now you can't beat Harrington for up and downs. All you need to do is look into those eyes and you'll see the calm, almost terrifying, focus. What he's lacked this year is the ability to kick on and make a charge when the leader forges ahead. On Sunday he showed that he's got it back. His back nine run was magnificent to watch - but for that birdie putt sliding by on the 17th Ross Fisher was in for a nervy last hole. Everyone on tour knows you don't want a matchplay finish against Harrington when he's on form, and he's found form at the right time.

I'm not going to say anything about the Bridgestone last year because the memories are too painful. I don't expect Harrington to win it, because with fairways as narrow as Akron's I think he still needs another few rounds to get his driving together. But look on it as a preparation for the PGA at Whistling Straits the next week. Pick up a top-10 in Akron, and move on.

Harrington's priorities have changed since winning those three majors. He can now afford to have more exact goals. The majors and the Ryder Cup are what he looks at first. It's no surprise that he's looking to fire on all cylinders just in time for both.